Intrinsic value of Government Properties Income Trust - GOV

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$18.21

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GOV.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GOV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.61
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  258
  278
  299
  321
  343
  367
  391
  417
  443
  471
  499
  529
  560
  593
  626
  662
  699
  737
  777
  820
  864
  910
  958
  1,009
  1,062
  1,117
  1,175
  1,236
  1,300
  1,367
  1,437
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  205
  220
  236
  253
  270
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  487
  514
  543
  572
  603
  636
  670
  705
  742
  781
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,006
  1,057
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  191
  205
  220
  236
  253
  270
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  487
  514
  543
  572
  603
  636
  670
  705
  742
  781
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,006
  1,057
Operating income, $m
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  175
  184
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
EBITDA, $m
  138
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  239
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  441
  465
  490
  516
  543
  572
  602
  633
  666
  700
  736
  774
Interest expense (income), $m
  41
  49
  52
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Net income, $m
  58
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,385
  2,528
  2,719
  2,916
  3,121
  3,335
  3,557
  3,788
  4,028
  4,278
  4,538
  4,809
  5,092
  5,387
  5,694
  6,015
  6,351
  6,701
  7,068
  7,451
  7,852
  8,271
  8,710
  9,169
  9,650
  10,155
  10,683
  11,236
  11,816
  12,424
  13,062
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,355
  2,528
  2,719
  2,916
  3,121
  3,335
  3,557
  3,788
  4,028
  4,278
  4,538
  4,809
  5,092
  5,387
  5,694
  6,015
  6,351
  6,701
  7,068
  7,451
  7,852
  8,271
  8,710
  9,169
  9,650
  10,155
  10,683
  11,236
  11,816
  12,424
  13,062
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Average production assets, $m
  1,516
  1,634
  1,757
  1,885
  2,018
  2,156
  2,299
  2,448
  2,603
  2,765
  2,933
  3,108
  3,291
  3,482
  3,681
  3,888
  4,105
  4,331
  4,568
  4,816
  5,075
  5,346
  5,630
  5,927
  6,238
  6,563
  6,905
  7,263
  7,638
  8,031
  8,443
Working capital, $m
  0
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
Total debt, $m
  1,392
  1,499
  1,617
  1,738
  1,865
  1,996
  2,133
  2,275
  2,423
  2,577
  2,737
  2,904
  3,078
  3,260
  3,450
  3,647
  3,854
  4,070
  4,296
  4,532
  4,779
  5,037
  5,307
  5,590
  5,887
  6,197
  6,523
  6,863
  7,221
  7,595
  7,988
Total liabilities, $m
  1,450
  1,557
  1,675
  1,796
  1,923
  2,054
  2,191
  2,333
  2,481
  2,635
  2,795
  2,962
  3,136
  3,318
  3,508
  3,705
  3,912
  4,128
  4,354
  4,590
  4,837
  5,095
  5,365
  5,648
  5,945
  6,255
  6,581
  6,921
  7,279
  7,653
  8,046
Total equity, $m
  935
  971
  1,044
  1,120
  1,199
  1,281
  1,366
  1,454
  1,547
  1,643
  1,743
  1,847
  1,955
  2,068
  2,187
  2,310
  2,439
  2,573
  2,714
  2,861
  3,015
  3,176
  3,345
  3,521
  3,706
  3,899
  4,102
  4,315
  4,537
  4,771
  5,016
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,385
  2,528
  2,719
  2,916
  3,122
  3,335
  3,557
  3,787
  4,028
  4,278
  4,538
  4,809
  5,091
  5,386
  5,695
  6,015
  6,351
  6,701
  7,068
  7,451
  7,852
  8,271
  8,710
  9,169
  9,651
  10,154
  10,683
  11,236
  11,816
  12,424
  13,062
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.489
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  58
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  291
  307
  323
  339
  357
  375
  395
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  94
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  353
  372
  391
  411
  432
  454
  477
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  124
  96
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  191
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  377
  397
  417
  438
  461
  484
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -375
New CAPEX, $m
  -233
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -412
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -215
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -284
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -439
  -461
  -484
  -508
  -534
  -560
  -588
  -617
  -648
  -681
  -714
  -750
  -787
Free cash flow, $m
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  245
  107
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  311
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  48
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  234
  155
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  321
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  419
  440
  460
  482
  505
  530
  555
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  143
  63
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  22
  -66
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  27
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  24
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.2
  92.5
  89.0
  85.8
  82.8
  80.0
  77.4
  74.9
  72.6
  70.4
  68.3
  66.3
  64.4
  62.6
  60.9
  59.2
  57.7
  56.1
  54.7
  53.2
  51.9
  50.6
  49.3
  48.0
  46.8
  45.7
  44.6
  43.5
  42.4
  41.4

Government Properties Income Trust is an equity real estate investment trust externally managed by REIT Management & Research LLC. The trust invests in the real estate markets of United States. It engages in investment, operation and maintenance of real estate assets. The firm invests primarily in office buildings. Government Properties Income Trust is based in Newton, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Government Properties Income Trust (GOV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.3
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1126.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 148.9%
Total Debt to Equity 148.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.3%
EBITDA Margin 52.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Operating Margin 26%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22%
Net Profit Margin 22.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 210.3%

GOV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GOV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $258 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Government Properties Income Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Government Properties Income Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GOV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for GOV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Government Properties Income Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Government Properties Income Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GOV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GOV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Government Properties Income Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Government Properties Income Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GOV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GOV are equal to 587.6%.

Life of production assets of 21.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Government Properties Income Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GOV is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $935 million for Government Properties Income Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.654 million for Government Properties Income Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Government Properties Income Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ First Potomac to be acquired by Government Properties for $1.4B   [09:37AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ First Potomac to be acquired by Government Properties for $1.4B   [09:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Stock futures point to attempted rebound   [09:12AM  MarketWatch]
▶ 8 Post-Brexit Stock Winners For All Types of Investors   [Jun-27-16 01:40PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of GOV Financial statements of GOV Annual reports of GOV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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