Intrinsic value of Gaming Partners International - GPIC

Previous Close

$8.55

  Intrinsic Value

$5.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$8.55

 
Intrinsic value

$5.79

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.13
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  82
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  266
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  75
  77
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  75
  75
  77
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
Operating income, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
EBITDA, $m
  11
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Tax expense, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Net income, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  80
  86
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  69
  86
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.188
  0.965
  0.977
  0.967
  0.967
  0.968
  0.969
  0.970
  0.971
  0.963
  0.965
  0.966
  0.967
  0.961
  0.962
  0.964
  0.966
  0.967
  0.968
  0.970
  0.965
  0.967
  0.968
  0.965
  0.966
  0.968
  0.965
  0.967
  0.968
  0.966
  0.967
Average production assets, $m
  22
  38
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
Working capital, $m
  24
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Total debt, $m
  8
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
Total liabilities, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Total equity, $m
  58
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  80
  86
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  218
  227
  238
  250
  263
  275
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.138
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.681
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  -2
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  4
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  4
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Gaming Partners International Corporation (GPIC) is a manufacturer and supplier of casino table game equipment. The Company operates in the casino table game products segment. The Company manufactures and supplies casino currency, with various security and design options, playing cards, table layouts, gaming furniture, table accessories, dice and roulette wheels. It also provides various radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies, including low- and high-frequency RFID casino currency, RFID solutions for casino currency (consisting of low- and high-frequency RFID casino currency readers, antennas, casino currency authentication software, casino currency inventory software applications and software maintenance services). Its products and services are used with casino table games, such as blackjack, poker, baccarat, craps and roulette. The Company's products fall into two categories: non-consumable and consumable.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gaming Partners International (GPIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.6
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 43.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.1%
Total Debt to Equity 13.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 7.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 8.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Payout Ratio 20%

GPIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gaming Partners International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gaming Partners International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GPIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gaming Partners International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gaming Partners International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Gaming Partners International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gaming Partners International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPIC stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPIC are equal to 45.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gaming Partners International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPIC is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $61 million for Gaming Partners International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8 million for Gaming Partners International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gaming Partners International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ December 2017 Quarter Update   [Jan-30-18 05:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Gaming Partners International Announces Special Dividend   [Nov-27-17 05:26PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Gaming Partners International Corp.   [Aug-14  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Gaming Partners International Corp.   [May-15  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Gaming Partners International Corp.   [May-02  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Gaming Partners International Corp.   [Nov-14  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ 3 Stocks Boosting The Consumer Durables Industry Higher   [Oct-16  04:33PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Gaming Partners receives $6.4M order from Macau casino   [May-23  03:57PM  at theflyonthewall.com]
▶ Gaming Partners reports Q1 EPS (14c), one estimate 7c   [09:04AM  at theflyonthewall.com]
Financial statements of GPIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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