Intrinsic value of Gap - GPS

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$21.97

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.78
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15,516
  15,826
  16,190
  16,606
  17,074
  17,591
  18,159
  18,778
  19,447
  20,168
  20,942
  21,770
  22,654
  23,595
  24,594
  25,655
  26,780
  27,970
  29,228
  30,558
  31,962
  33,444
  35,006
  36,653
  38,388
  40,216
  42,140
  44,165
  46,296
  48,538
  50,897
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  14,307
  14,636
  15,012
  15,434
  15,902
  16,416
  16,975
  17,580
  18,232
  18,932
  19,680
  20,479
  21,329
  22,233
  23,192
  24,209
  25,285
  26,422
  27,624
  28,894
  30,233
  31,645
  33,134
  34,703
  36,355
  38,094
  39,925
  41,852
  43,879
  46,011
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  14,325
  14,307
  14,636
  15,012
  15,434
  15,902
  16,416
  16,975
  17,580
  18,232
  18,932
  19,680
  20,479
  21,329
  22,233
  23,192
  24,209
  25,285
  26,422
  27,624
  28,894
  30,233
  31,645
  33,134
  34,703
  36,355
  38,094
  39,925
  41,852
  43,879
  46,011
Operating income, $m
  1,191
  1,519
  1,554
  1,594
  1,639
  1,689
  1,743
  1,803
  1,867
  1,936
  2,010
  2,090
  2,175
  2,265
  2,361
  2,463
  2,571
  2,685
  2,806
  2,934
  3,068
  3,211
  3,361
  3,519
  3,685
  3,861
  4,045
  4,240
  4,444
  4,660
  4,886
EBITDA, $m
  1,784
  1,820
  1,862
  1,910
  1,963
  2,023
  2,088
  2,159
  2,236
  2,319
  2,408
  2,504
  2,605
  2,713
  2,828
  2,950
  3,080
  3,217
  3,361
  3,514
  3,676
  3,846
  4,026
  4,215
  4,415
  4,625
  4,846
  5,079
  5,324
  5,582
  5,853
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  44
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  139
  150
  161
  174
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  265
  283
  302
  322
  343
  366
  389
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,124
  1,476
  1,507
  1,544
  1,584
  1,629
  1,678
  1,731
  1,789
  1,851
  1,918
  1,990
  2,066
  2,147
  2,233
  2,324
  2,421
  2,524
  2,632
  2,747
  2,867
  2,995
  3,129
  3,271
  3,421
  3,578
  3,743
  3,918
  4,101
  4,294
  4,497
Tax expense, $m
  448
  398
  407
  417
  428
  440
  453
  467
  483
  500
  518
  537
  558
  580
  603
  628
  654
  681
  711
  742
  774
  809
  845
  883
  924
  966
  1,011
  1,058
  1,107
  1,159
  1,214
Net income, $m
  676
  1,077
  1,100
  1,127
  1,156
  1,189
  1,225
  1,264
  1,306
  1,352
  1,400
  1,452
  1,508
  1,567
  1,630
  1,697
  1,767
  1,842
  1,921
  2,005
  2,093
  2,186
  2,284
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,994
  3,135
  3,283

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,783
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,610
  5,943
  6,080
  6,236
  6,411
  6,606
  6,819
  7,051
  7,303
  7,573
  7,864
  8,175
  8,507
  8,860
  9,236
  9,634
  10,056
  10,503
  10,976
  11,475
  12,002
  12,559
  13,145
  13,764
  14,415
  15,102
  15,824
  16,585
  17,385
  18,227
  19,113
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,827
  5,943
  6,080
  6,236
  6,411
  6,606
  6,819
  7,051
  7,303
  7,573
  7,864
  8,175
  8,507
  8,860
  9,236
  9,634
  10,056
  10,503
  10,976
  11,475
  12,002
  12,559
  13,145
  13,764
  14,415
  15,102
  15,824
  16,585
  17,385
  18,227
  19,113
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
  2.663
Average production assets, $m
  2,829
  1,504
  1,538
  1,578
  1,622
  1,671
  1,725
  1,784
  1,847
  1,916
  1,990
  2,068
  2,152
  2,241
  2,336
  2,437
  2,544
  2,657
  2,777
  2,903
  3,036
  3,177
  3,326
  3,482
  3,647
  3,820
  4,003
  4,196
  4,398
  4,611
  4,835
Working capital, $m
  1,862
  142
  146
  149
  154
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
  417
  437
  458
Total debt, $m
  1,313
  1,338
  1,446
  1,571
  1,710
  1,865
  2,035
  2,220
  2,420
  2,635
  2,867
  3,114
  3,378
  3,660
  3,959
  4,276
  4,612
  4,967
  5,344
  5,741
  6,161
  6,604
  7,071
  7,563
  8,082
  8,628
  9,203
  9,808
  10,445
  11,116
  11,821
Total liabilities, $m
  4,706
  4,731
  4,839
  4,964
  5,103
  5,258
  5,428
  5,613
  5,813
  6,028
  6,260
  6,507
  6,771
  7,053
  7,352
  7,669
  8,005
  8,360
  8,737
  9,134
  9,554
  9,997
  10,464
  10,956
  11,475
  12,021
  12,596
  13,201
  13,838
  14,509
  15,214
Total equity, $m
  2,904
  1,212
  1,240
  1,272
  1,308
  1,348
  1,391
  1,438
  1,490
  1,545
  1,604
  1,668
  1,735
  1,807
  1,884
  1,965
  2,051
  2,143
  2,239
  2,341
  2,448
  2,562
  2,682
  2,808
  2,941
  3,081
  3,228
  3,383
  3,547
  3,718
  3,899
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,610
  5,943
  6,079
  6,236
  6,411
  6,606
  6,819
  7,051
  7,303
  7,573
  7,864
  8,175
  8,506
  8,860
  9,236
  9,634
  10,056
  10,503
  10,976
  11,475
  12,002
  12,559
  13,146
  13,764
  14,416
  15,102
  15,824
  16,584
  17,385
  18,227
  19,113
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  1.100
  1.170
  1.230
  1.310
  1.380
  1.460
  1.540
  1.620
  1.710
  1.790
  1.870
  1.950
  2.020
  2.100
  2.180
  2.250
  2.320
  2.390
  2.450
  2.520
  2.580
  2.640
  2.690
  2.750
  2.800
  2.850
  2.900
  2.950
  2.990
  3.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.192
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204
  0.204

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  676
  1,077
  1,100
  1,127
  1,156
  1,189
  1,225
  1,264
  1,306
  1,352
  1,400
  1,452
  1,508
  1,567
  1,630
  1,697
  1,767
  1,842
  1,921
  2,005
  2,093
  2,186
  2,284
  2,388
  2,497
  2,612
  2,733
  2,860
  2,994
  3,135
  3,283
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  593
  301
  308
  316
  324
  334
  345
  357
  369
  383
  398
  414
  430
  448
  467
  487
  509
  531
  555
  581
  607
  635
  665
  696
  729
  764
  801
  839
  880
  922
  967
Funds from operations, $m
  2,040
  1,378
  1,408
  1,442
  1,481
  1,523
  1,570
  1,621
  1,676
  1,735
  1,798
  1,866
  1,938
  2,015
  2,097
  2,184
  2,276
  2,374
  2,477
  2,586
  2,700
  2,822
  2,950
  3,084
  3,226
  3,376
  3,533
  3,699
  3,873
  4,057
  4,250
Change in working capital, $m
  321
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  1,719
  -98
  1,405
  1,439
  1,477
  1,519
  1,565
  1,615
  1,670
  1,728
  1,791
  1,859
  1,930
  2,007
  2,088
  2,175
  2,266
  2,363
  2,465
  2,574
  2,688
  2,808
  2,936
  3,070
  3,211
  3,359
  3,516
  3,681
  3,854
  4,037
  4,229
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -295
  -301
  -308
  -316
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -369
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -448
  -467
  -487
  -509
  -531
  -555
  -581
  -607
  -635
  -665
  -696
  -729
  -764
  -801
  -839
  -880
  -922
New CAPEX, $m
  -524
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -529
  -325
  -336
  -348
  -360
  -373
  -388
  -404
  -421
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -519
  -543
  -568
  -594
  -622
  -651
  -681
  -714
  -748
  -783
  -821
  -861
  -903
  -947
  -993
  -1,041
  -1,093
  -1,146
Free cash flow, $m
  1,190
  -423
  1,070
  1,091
  1,117
  1,145
  1,177
  1,211
  1,249
  1,290
  1,335
  1,382
  1,433
  1,487
  1,545
  1,607
  1,672
  1,741
  1,814
  1,892
  1,974
  2,060
  2,152
  2,248
  2,350
  2,456
  2,569
  2,688
  2,813
  2,944
  3,082
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -421
  90
  109
  124
  140
  155
  170
  185
  200
  216
  231
  248
  264
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  376
  397
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  546
  575
  605
  637
  670
  705
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -410
  90
  109
  124
  140
  155
  170
  185
  200
  216
  231
  248
  264
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  376
  397
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  546
  575
  605
  637
  670
  705
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  780
  -333
  1,178
  1,216
  1,256
  1,300
  1,346
  1,396
  1,449
  1,506
  1,566
  1,630
  1,697
  1,768
  1,844
  1,924
  2,008
  2,097
  2,191
  2,289
  2,394
  2,503
  2,619
  2,740
  2,868
  3,003
  3,144
  3,293
  3,450
  3,614
  3,787
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -359
  -26
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,718
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,358
  1,150
  1,184
  1,221
  1,260
  1,303
  1,349
  1,398
  1,451
  1,507
  1,566
  1,629
  1,696
  1,767
  1,842
  1,922
  2,006
  2,094
  2,188
  2,286
  2,390
  2,499
  2,614
  2,735
  2,863
  2,997
  3,138
  3,286
  3,443
  3,607
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,302
  1,053
  1,030
  1,005
  977
  946
  911
  874
  833
  790
  744
  695
  645
  593
  541
  488
  436
  386
  337
  290
  247
  207
  171
  139
  111
  87
  67
  51
  38
  27
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Gap, Inc. operates as an apparel retail company worldwide. It offers apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Gap, Banana Republic, Old Navy, Athleta, and Intermix brands. The company provides apparel, eyewear, jewelry, shoes, handbags, and fragrances; and performance and lifestyle apparel for use in yoga, strength training, and running, as well as seasonal sports, including skiing and tennis. The Gap, Inc. offers its products through company-operated stores, franchise stores, Websites, e-commerce and social media sites, and catalogs. The company has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Gap, Banana Republic, and Old Navy stores in Asia, Australia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. As of November 17, 2016, it operated 3,300 company-operated stores and 450 franchise stores. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gap (GPS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 27
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 43%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Return On Equity 24.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 39.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Payout Ratio 54.3%

GPS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15516 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gap. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Gap. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GPS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gap, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gap.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gap.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gap. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPS are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gap operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPS is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2904 million for Gap - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 392.931 million for Gap is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gap at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.6 billion.


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Stock chart of GPS Financial statements of GPS Annual reports of GPS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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