Intrinsic value of Gramercy Property Trust - GPT

Previous Close

$28.91

  Intrinsic Value

$4.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

+249%

Previous close

$28.91

 
Intrinsic value

$4.90

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+249%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GPT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  118.14
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  517
  555
  595
  636
  679
  724
  770
  819
  869
  922
  976
  1,033
  1,093
  1,155
  1,219
  1,287
  1,358
  1,432
  1,509
  1,590
  1,675
  1,763
  1,856
  1,953
  2,055
  2,162
  2,273
  2,391
  2,513
  2,642
  2,777
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  341
  366
  391
  418
  445
  474
  503
  534
  566
  600
  635
  671
  709
  749
  791
  834
  880
  927
  977
  1,029
  1,083
  1,140
  1,200
  1,263
  1,328
  1,397
  1,469
  1,544
  1,623
  1,706
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
Total operating expenses, $m
  422
  451
  478
  506
  536
  566
  598
  630
  664
  700
  737
  775
  815
  857
  900
  946
  993
  1,043
  1,094
  1,148
  1,204
  1,263
  1,324
  1,389
  1,457
  1,526
  1,600
  1,677
  1,758
  1,842
  1,930
Operating income, $m
  95
  104
  117
  130
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  221
  239
  258
  277
  298
  319
  341
  365
  389
  415
  442
  470
  500
  531
  564
  599
  635
  673
  713
  756
  800
  846
EBITDA, $m
  337
  365
  396
  428
  462
  497
  534
  572
  612
  654
  697
  742
  790
  839
  891
  945
  1,001
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327
  1,401
  1,480
  1,562
  1,648
  1,739
  1,834
  1,934
  2,038
  2,148
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  86
  94
  101
  109
  118
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  236
  249
  264
  279
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  405
  427
  449
  473
  498
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  67
  74
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  176
  189
  204
  218
  234
  251
  268
  287
  306
  327
  348
Tax expense, $m
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
Net income, $m
  29
  13
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  149
  159
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  254

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,604
  5,971
  6,398
  6,842
  7,304
  7,784
  8,284
  8,804
  9,345
  9,909
  10,496
  11,109
  11,748
  12,415
  13,112
  13,839
  14,600
  15,394
  16,226
  17,096
  18,006
  18,959
  19,956
  21,001
  22,096
  23,243
  24,445
  25,705
  27,027
  28,412
  29,865
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,536
  5,971
  6,398
  6,842
  7,304
  7,784
  8,284
  8,804
  9,345
  9,909
  10,496
  11,109
  11,748
  12,415
  13,112
  13,839
  14,600
  15,394
  16,226
  17,096
  18,006
  18,959
  19,956
  21,001
  22,096
  23,243
  24,445
  25,705
  27,027
  28,412
  29,865
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
Average production assets, $m
  4,944
  5,310
  5,690
  6,085
  6,496
  6,923
  7,367
  7,830
  8,311
  8,812
  9,335
  9,880
  10,448
  11,042
  11,661
  12,308
  12,984
  13,691
  14,431
  15,204
  16,014
  16,861
  17,748
  18,678
  19,651
  20,671
  21,741
  22,861
  24,036
  25,268
  26,560
Working capital, $m
  0
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
Total debt, $m
  2,455
  2,679
  2,899
  3,128
  3,366
  3,613
  3,870
  4,138
  4,417
  4,707
  5,010
  5,325
  5,654
  5,998
  6,356
  6,731
  7,123
  7,532
  7,960
  8,408
  8,877
  9,368
  9,881
  10,420
  10,983
  11,574
  12,193
  12,842
  13,523
  14,236
  14,984
Total liabilities, $m
  2,851
  3,075
  3,295
  3,524
  3,762
  4,009
  4,266
  4,534
  4,813
  5,103
  5,406
  5,721
  6,050
  6,394
  6,752
  7,127
  7,519
  7,928
  8,356
  8,804
  9,273
  9,764
  10,277
  10,816
  11,379
  11,970
  12,589
  13,238
  13,919
  14,632
  15,380
Total equity, $m
  2,753
  2,896
  3,103
  3,319
  3,542
  3,775
  4,018
  4,270
  4,532
  4,806
  5,091
  5,388
  5,698
  6,021
  6,359
  6,712
  7,081
  7,466
  7,870
  8,291
  8,733
  9,195
  9,679
  10,186
  10,717
  11,273
  11,856
  12,467
  13,108
  13,780
  14,484
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,604
  5,971
  6,398
  6,843
  7,304
  7,784
  8,284
  8,804
  9,345
  9,909
  10,497
  11,109
  11,748
  12,415
  13,111
  13,839
  14,600
  15,394
  16,226
  17,095
  18,006
  18,959
  19,956
  21,002
  22,096
  23,243
  24,445
  25,705
  27,027
  28,412
  29,864
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.892
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  13
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  149
  159
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  254
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  242
  261
  279
  299
  319
  340
  361
  384
  408
  432
  458
  484
  512
  541
  572
  603
  636
  671
  707
  745
  785
  827
  870
  916
  963
  1,013
  1,066
  1,121
  1,178
  1,239
  1,302
Funds from operations, $m
  170
  274
  296
  319
  344
  369
  395
  423
  451
  481
  512
  545
  579
  614
  651
  690
  731
  773
  818
  865
  913
  965
  1,019
  1,075
  1,134
  1,196
  1,261
  1,330
  1,402
  1,477
  1,556
Change in working capital, $m
  -67
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  278
  300
  323
  348
  373
  400
  427
  456
  486
  518
  550
  585
  620
  658
  697
  738
  781
  826
  873
  922
  974
  1,028
  1,085
  1,144
  1,207
  1,273
  1,342
  1,414
  1,490
  1,570
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -242
  -260
  -279
  -298
  -318
  -339
  -361
  -384
  -407
  -432
  -458
  -484
  -512
  -541
  -572
  -603
  -636
  -671
  -707
  -745
  -785
  -827
  -870
  -916
  -963
  -1,013
  -1,066
  -1,121
  -1,178
  -1,239
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,103
  -366
  -380
  -395
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -501
  -523
  -545
  -568
  -593
  -619
  -647
  -676
  -707
  -739
  -774
  -809
  -847
  -887
  -929
  -974
  -1,020
  -1,069
  -1,121
  -1,175
  -1,232
  -1,292
Cash from investing activities, $m
  96
  -608
  -640
  -674
  -709
  -745
  -783
  -823
  -865
  -908
  -955
  -1,003
  -1,052
  -1,105
  -1,160
  -1,219
  -1,279
  -1,343
  -1,410
  -1,481
  -1,554
  -1,632
  -1,714
  -1,799
  -1,890
  -1,983
  -2,082
  -2,187
  -2,296
  -2,410
  -2,531
Free cash flow, $m
  333
  -331
  -341
  -351
  -361
  -372
  -384
  -396
  -409
  -423
  -437
  -452
  -468
  -485
  -503
  -522
  -542
  -563
  -585
  -608
  -633
  -659
  -686
  -715
  -745
  -777
  -810
  -845
  -882
  -920
  -961
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -71
  224
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
  344
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
  538
  564
  591
  619
  649
  680
  713
  748
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  197
  191
  195
  199
  204
  209
  214
  219
  225
  231
  237
  244
  251
  258
  266
  275
  283
  293
  303
  313
  324
  335
  347
  360
  373
  387
  402
  417
  433
  450
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -238
  421
  411
  424
  437
  451
  466
  482
  498
  515
  534
  553
  573
  595
  617
  641
  667
  692
  721
  751
  782
  815
  849
  885
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,051
  1,097
  1,146
  1,198
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  91
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  158
  -211
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -338
  -353
  -369
  -386
  -403
  -422
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -583
  -611
  -641
  -672
  -705
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -244
  -256
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -445
  -467
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -48
  -116
  -110
  -103
  -96
  -88
  -80
  -73
  -65
  -57
  -50
  -43
  -36
  -30
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.2
  91.2
  87.4
  84.0
  80.9
  77.9
  75.2
  72.7
  70.3
  68.1
  66.0
  64.0
  62.2
  60.4
  58.8
  57.2
  55.7
  54.2
  52.8
  51.5
  50.2
  49.0
  47.9
  46.7
  45.7
  44.6
  43.6
  42.6
  41.7
  40.8

Gramercy Property Trust, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of the United States. It makes investments in industrial and office properties to create its portfolio. The firm was formerly known as Gramercy Capital Corp. Gramercy Property Trust Inc was founded in 2004 and is based in New York City with additional offices in St. Louis, Missouri and Jenkintown, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gramercy Property Trust (GPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 140.2
Price to Sales 7.9
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 118.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 89.2%
Total Debt to Equity 89.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.1%
EBITDA Margin 66%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.3%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate 13.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Payout Ratio 534.5%

GPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gramercy Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gramercy Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for GPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gramercy Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gramercy Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $107 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gramercy Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gramercy Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPT are equal to 956.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gramercy Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPT is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2753 million for Gramercy Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 140.18 million for Gramercy Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gramercy Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Weaker Prospects Plague Gramercy Property Trust   [Aug-02-17 10:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Beacon Partners sells more industrial properties for $72.5M   [Jul-17-17 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 1Q results   [06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 REITs With A Definitive Margin Of Safety   [Apr-24-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust buys PBM Graphics building for $9.2M   [Apr-05-17 05:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust Aims to Stay Strong in 2017   [Feb-28-17 09:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 4Q results   [06:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Duke Energy buys its Lake Mary regional HQ for $20M   [Dec-13-16 01:47PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Should You Add Gramercy Property Trust (GPT) to Your Portfolio?   [Dec-06-16 03:49PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of GPT Financial statements of GPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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