Intrinsic value of Gramercy Property Trust - GPT

Previous Close

$30.62

  Intrinsic Value

$4.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$30.62

 
Intrinsic value

$4.28

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GPT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  118.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  517
  527
  539
  553
  569
  586
  605
  626
  648
  672
  698
  725
  755
  786
  819
  855
  892
  932
  974
  1,018
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,221
  1,279
  1,340
  1,404
  1,472
  1,543
  1,617
  1,696
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  324
  332
  340
  350
  360
  372
  385
  398
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  504
  525
  548
  573
  598
  626
  654
  685
  717
  750
  786
  823
  863
  904
  948
  994
  1,042
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
Total operating expenses, $m
  422
  434
  444
  455
  468
  481
  496
  512
  528
  547
  566
  586
  608
  631
  655
  680
  707
  736
  765
  797
  829
  865
  901
  939
  980
  1,021
  1,066
  1,112
  1,162
  1,213
  1,266
Operating income, $m
  95
  93
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  250
  266
  282
  300
  318
  338
  359
  381
  405
  429
EBITDA, $m
  337
  341
  348
  358
  368
  380
  393
  407
  423
  441
  459
  479
  501
  524
  549
  575
  604
  633
  665
  699
  735
  772
  812
  855
  899
  946
  996
  1,049
  1,104
  1,163
  1,224
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  300
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
Tax expense, $m
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
Net income, $m
  29
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  74
  80
  87
  95

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,604
  5,670
  5,801
  5,950
  6,117
  6,303
  6,506
  6,728
  6,968
  7,226
  7,503
  7,800
  8,117
  8,454
  8,812
  9,192
  9,595
  10,021
  10,472
  10,948
  11,452
  11,982
  12,542
  13,132
  13,754
  14,409
  15,098
  15,824
  16,587
  17,391
  18,236
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,536
  5,670
  5,801
  5,950
  6,117
  6,303
  6,506
  6,728
  6,968
  7,226
  7,503
  7,800
  8,117
  8,454
  8,812
  9,192
  9,595
  10,021
  10,472
  10,948
  11,452
  11,982
  12,542
  13,132
  13,754
  14,409
  15,098
  15,824
  16,587
  17,391
  18,236
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
Average production assets, $m
  4,944
  5,043
  5,159
  5,292
  5,440
  5,605
  5,786
  5,983
  6,197
  6,426
  6,673
  6,937
  7,218
  7,518
  7,837
  8,175
  8,533
  8,912
  9,313
  9,737
  10,185
  10,657
  11,154
  11,679
  12,232
  12,814
  13,428
  14,073
  14,752
  15,466
  16,218
Working capital, $m
  0
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -213
  -224
Total debt, $m
  2,455
  2,524
  2,591
  2,668
  2,754
  2,850
  2,955
  3,069
  3,192
  3,325
  3,468
  3,621
  3,784
  3,958
  4,142
  4,338
  4,545
  4,765
  4,997
  5,242
  5,502
  5,775
  6,063
  6,367
  6,687
  7,024
  7,379
  7,753
  8,146
  8,560
  8,995
Total liabilities, $m
  2,851
  2,920
  2,987
  3,064
  3,150
  3,246
  3,351
  3,465
  3,588
  3,721
  3,864
  4,017
  4,180
  4,354
  4,538
  4,734
  4,941
  5,161
  5,393
  5,638
  5,898
  6,171
  6,459
  6,763
  7,083
  7,420
  7,775
  8,149
  8,542
  8,956
  9,391
Total equity, $m
  2,753
  2,750
  2,813
  2,886
  2,967
  3,057
  3,155
  3,263
  3,379
  3,505
  3,639
  3,783
  3,937
  4,100
  4,274
  4,458
  4,653
  4,860
  5,079
  5,310
  5,554
  5,811
  6,083
  6,369
  6,671
  6,988
  7,323
  7,674
  8,045
  8,434
  8,844
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,604
  5,670
  5,800
  5,950
  6,117
  6,303
  6,506
  6,728
  6,967
  7,226
  7,503
  7,800
  8,117
  8,454
  8,812
  9,192
  9,594
  10,021
  10,472
  10,948
  11,452
  11,982
  12,542
  13,132
  13,754
  14,408
  15,098
  15,823
  16,587
  17,390
  18,235
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.892
  0.920
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  74
  80
  87
  95
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  242
  248
  253
  260
  267
  275
  284
  294
  304
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  384
  401
  418
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  628
  658
  690
  723
  758
  795
Funds from operations, $m
  170
  253
  258
  265
  273
  281
  291
  301
  313
  325
  339
  353
  369
  385
  403
  422
  443
  464
  487
  511
  537
  564
  593
  624
  656
  690
  726
  763
  803
  845
  890
Change in working capital, $m
  -67
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  254
  260
  267
  275
  283
  293
  304
  316
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  448
  469
  493
  517
  543
  571
  600
  631
  663
  698
  734
  772
  813
  855
  900
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -242
  -247
  -253
  -259
  -267
  -275
  -284
  -293
  -304
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -354
  -369
  -384
  -401
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -477
  -499
  -522
  -547
  -573
  -600
  -628
  -658
  -690
  -723
  -758
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,103
  -99
  -116
  -133
  -149
  -165
  -181
  -197
  -213
  -230
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -300
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -379
  -401
  -424
  -447
  -472
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -582
  -613
  -645
  -679
  -714
  -751
Cash from investing activities, $m
  96
  -341
  -363
  -386
  -408
  -432
  -456
  -481
  -506
  -534
  -562
  -591
  -622
  -654
  -688
  -722
  -759
  -797
  -838
  -881
  -924
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,072
  -1,126
  -1,182
  -1,241
  -1,303
  -1,369
  -1,437
  -1,509
Free cash flow, $m
  333
  -87
  -103
  -119
  -134
  -148
  -163
  -177
  -191
  -205
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -264
  -279
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -401
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -582
  -609
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -71
  69
  67
  77
  86
  96
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  184
  196
  207
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  355
  374
  393
  414
  435
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  60
  58
  67
  76
  84
  92
  100
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -238
  129
  125
  144
  162
  180
  197
  214
  232
  248
  266
  284
  302
  321
  339
  359
  378
  399
  420
  442
  465
  489
  513
  539
  565
  593
  622
  652
  683
  716
  750
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  42
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  158
  -65
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -352
  -370
  -390
  -410
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  45
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.8
  97.6
  96.3
  94.9
  93.5
  91.9
  90.3
  88.7
  87.0
  85.3
  83.6
  82.0
  80.3
  78.6
  77.0
  75.4
  73.8
  72.2
  70.7
  69.2
  67.7
  66.3
  64.9
  63.5
  62.2
  60.9
  59.6
  58.4
  57.2
  56.0

Gramercy Property Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which is an investor and asset manager of commercial real estate. The Company's operating segments include Investments/Corporate and Asset Management. The Investments/Corporate segment includes all of its activities related to the investment and ownership of commercial properties located throughout the United States and Europe. The Asset Management segment includes substantially all of its activities related to asset and property management of commercial properties located throughout the United States and Europe. It is engaged in acquiring and managing single-tenant, net leased industrial, office and specialty properties. It focuses on income producing properties leased to tenants in markets in the United States and Europe. It earns revenues through rental revenues on properties that it owns in the United States and asset management revenues on properties owned by third parties in the United States and Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gramercy Property Trust (GPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 148.5
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 118.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 89.2%
Total Debt to Equity 89.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.1%
EBITDA Margin 66%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.3%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate 13.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Payout Ratio 534.5%

GPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gramercy Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gramercy Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for GPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gramercy Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gramercy Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $107 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gramercy Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gramercy Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPT are equal to 956.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gramercy Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPT is equal to -13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2753 million for Gramercy Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 160.679 million for Gramercy Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gramercy Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top Dividend Company Aims For Online-Retail Warehouses   [Sep-08-17 02:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Weaker Prospects Plague Gramercy Property Trust   [Aug-02-17 10:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Beacon Partners sells more industrial properties for $72.5M   [Jul-17-17 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 1Q results   [06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 REITs With A Definitive Margin Of Safety   [Apr-24-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust buys PBM Graphics building for $9.2M   [Apr-05-17 05:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust Aims to Stay Strong in 2017   [Feb-28-17 09:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 4Q results   [06:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Duke Energy buys its Lake Mary regional HQ for $20M   [Dec-13-16 01:47PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Should You Add Gramercy Property Trust (GPT) to Your Portfolio?   [Dec-06-16 03:49PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of GPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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