Intrinsic value of Gramercy Property Trust - GPT

Previous Close

$26.03

  Intrinsic Value

$4.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$26.03

 
Intrinsic value

$4.25

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as GPT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  118.14
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  517
  533
  551
  570
  590
  612
  636
  661
  689
  717
  748
  780
  815
  851
  890
  930
  973
  1,018
  1,066
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,479
  1,551
  1,626
  1,706
  1,789
  1,877
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  328
  339
  350
  363
  377
  391
  407
  423
  441
  460
  479
  501
  523
  547
  572
  598
  626
  655
  686
  718
  753
  789
  827
  867
  909
  953
  999
  1,048
  1,099
  1,153
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  198
  203
  208
  214
  219
  224
Total operating expenses, $m
  422
  438
  451
  465
  481
  498
  515
  534
  553
  575
  597
  619
  645
  671
  698
  727
  757
  789
  822
  857
  893
  933
  973
  1,016
  1,061
  1,107
  1,156
  1,207
  1,262
  1,318
  1,377
Operating income, $m
  95
  96
  100
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  161
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  230
  244
  259
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  372
  395
  419
  444
  471
  499
EBITDA, $m
  337
  346
  358
  371
  386
  402
  419
  438
  458
  479
  502
  526
  552
  580
  609
  640
  672
  707
  744
  783
  824
  867
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,065
  1,122
  1,181
  1,244
  1,310
  1,379
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  166
  175
  183
  193
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  273
  287
  301
  317
  333
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  10
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  166
Tax expense, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
Net income, $m
  29
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  122

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,604
  5,731
  5,920
  6,125
  6,346
  6,585
  6,840
  7,113
  7,404
  7,713
  8,042
  8,391
  8,761
  9,152
  9,565
  10,002
  10,463
  10,949
  11,462
  12,002
  12,572
  13,171
  13,802
  14,467
  15,166
  15,901
  16,674
  17,487
  18,342
  19,241
  20,186
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,536
  5,731
  5,920
  6,125
  6,346
  6,585
  6,840
  7,113
  7,404
  7,713
  8,042
  8,391
  8,761
  9,152
  9,565
  10,002
  10,463
  10,949
  11,462
  12,002
  12,572
  13,171
  13,802
  14,467
  15,166
  15,901
  16,674
  17,487
  18,342
  19,241
  20,186
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
  0.093
Average production assets, $m
  4,944
  5,097
  5,265
  5,447
  5,644
  5,856
  6,083
  6,326
  6,585
  6,860
  7,153
  7,463
  7,791
  8,139
  8,507
  8,895
  9,305
  9,738
  10,194
  10,674
  11,181
  11,714
  12,275
  12,866
  13,488
  14,142
  14,829
  15,553
  16,313
  17,112
  17,953
Working capital, $m
  0
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -248
Total debt, $m
  2,455
  2,556
  2,653
  2,758
  2,872
  2,995
  3,127
  3,267
  3,417
  3,576
  3,746
  3,925
  4,116
  4,317
  4,530
  4,755
  4,992
  5,243
  5,507
  5,785
  6,078
  6,387
  6,712
  7,054
  7,414
  7,793
  8,191
  8,610
  9,050
  9,513
  10,000
Total liabilities, $m
  2,851
  2,952
  3,049
  3,154
  3,268
  3,391
  3,523
  3,663
  3,813
  3,972
  4,142
  4,321
  4,512
  4,713
  4,926
  5,151
  5,388
  5,639
  5,903
  6,181
  6,474
  6,783
  7,108
  7,450
  7,810
  8,189
  8,587
  9,006
  9,446
  9,909
  10,396
Total equity, $m
  2,753
  2,780
  2,871
  2,971
  3,078
  3,194
  3,317
  3,450
  3,591
  3,741
  3,901
  4,070
  4,249
  4,439
  4,639
  4,851
  5,074
  5,310
  5,559
  5,821
  6,097
  6,388
  6,694
  7,016
  7,355
  7,712
  8,087
  8,481
  8,896
  9,332
  9,790
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,604
  5,732
  5,920
  6,125
  6,346
  6,585
  6,840
  7,113
  7,404
  7,713
  8,043
  8,391
  8,761
  9,152
  9,565
  10,002
  10,462
  10,949
  11,462
  12,002
  12,571
  13,171
  13,802
  14,466
  15,165
  15,901
  16,674
  17,487
  18,342
  19,241
  20,186
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.892
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485
  0.485

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  113
  122
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  242
  250
  258
  267
  277
  287
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  500
  523
  548
  574
  602
  631
  661
  693
  727
  762
  800
  839
  880
Funds from operations, $m
  170
  257
  266
  276
  286
  298
  310
  324
  338
  353
  370
  387
  406
  426
  447
  469
  493
  518
  544
  572
  601
  632
  665
  700
  737
  775
  816
  859
  904
  951
  1,002
Change in working capital, $m
  -67
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  259
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  327
  342
  357
  374
  392
  410
  431
  452
  474
  498
  524
  550
  578
  608
  640
  673
  708
  745
  784
  825
  869
  914
  962
  1,013
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -242
  -250
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -456
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -574
  -602
  -631
  -661
  -693
  -727
  -762
  -800
  -839
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,103
  -153
  -168
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -227
  -243
  -259
  -275
  -293
  -310
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -388
  -410
  -432
  -456
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -561
  -591
  -622
  -654
  -688
  -723
  -760
  -799
  -840
Cash from investing activities, $m
  96
  -395
  -418
  -440
  -464
  -489
  -514
  -541
  -569
  -598
  -629
  -661
  -695
  -730
  -767
  -805
  -846
  -888
  -933
  -981
  -1,029
  -1,081
  -1,135
  -1,193
  -1,253
  -1,315
  -1,381
  -1,450
  -1,522
  -1,599
  -1,679
Free cash flow, $m
  333
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -214
  -227
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -348
  -365
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -581
  -608
  -637
  -666
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -71
  101
  97
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  487
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  88
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -238
  189
  181
  197
  212
  228
  244
  260
  276
  292
  310
  328
  345
  364
  384
  404
  424
  446
  468
  491
  516
  541
  567
  595
  624
  654
  684
  717
  750
  786
  824
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  52
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  158
  -95
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -458
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  25
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -301
Discount rate, %
 
  8.20
  8.61
  9.04
  9.49
  9.97
  10.47
  10.99
  11.54
  12.12
  12.72
  13.36
  14.02
  14.73
  15.46
  16.24
  17.05
  17.90
  18.79
  19.73
  20.72
  21.76
  22.84
  23.99
  25.19
  26.45
  27.77
  29.16
  30.61
  32.15
  33.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  23
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -47
  -45
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.9
  96.0
  94.1
  92.1
  90.1
  88.0
  86.0
  84.0
  82.0
  80.0
  78.1
  76.2
  74.3
  72.5
  70.7
  69.0
  67.3
  65.6
  64.0
  62.5
  60.9
  59.5
  58.0
  56.6
  55.3
  54.0
  52.7
  51.5
  50.3
  49.1

Gramercy Property Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which is an investor and asset manager of commercial real estate. The Company's operating segments include Investments/Corporate and Asset Management. The Investments/Corporate segment includes all of its activities related to the investment and ownership of commercial properties located throughout the United States and Europe. The Asset Management segment includes substantially all of its activities related to asset and property management of commercial properties located throughout the United States and Europe. It is engaged in acquiring and managing single-tenant, net leased industrial, office and specialty properties. It focuses on income producing properties leased to tenants in markets in the United States and Europe. It earns revenues through rental revenues on properties that it owns in the United States and asset management revenues on properties owned by third parties in the United States and Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Gramercy Property Trust (GPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 126.2
Price to Sales 7.1
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 118.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 89.2%
Total Debt to Equity 89.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.1%
EBITDA Margin 66%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.3%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Effective Tax Rate 13.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Payout Ratio 534.5%

GPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Gramercy Property Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Gramercy Property Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.2%, whose default value for GPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Gramercy Property Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Gramercy Property Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $107 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Gramercy Property Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Gramercy Property Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GPT are equal to 956.3%.

Life of production assets of 20.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Gramercy Property Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GPT is equal to -13.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2753 million for Gramercy Property Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 161.665 million for Gramercy Property Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Gramercy Property Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 7 Dividend Stocks That Make the Grade   [07:30AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Dividend Company Aims For Online-Retail Warehouses   [Sep-08-17 02:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Weaker Prospects Plague Gramercy Property Trust   [Aug-02-17 10:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Beacon Partners sells more industrial properties for $72.5M   [Jul-17-17 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 1Q results   [06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 REITs With A Definitive Margin Of Safety   [Apr-24-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust buys PBM Graphics building for $9.2M   [Apr-05-17 05:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust Aims to Stay Strong in 2017   [Feb-28-17 09:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Gramercy Property Trust reports 4Q results   [06:42PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of GPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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