Intrinsic value of Global Ship Lease Cl A - GSL

Previous Close

$1.40

  Intrinsic Value

$1.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+10%

  Value-price divergence*

+16%

Previous close

$1.40

 
Intrinsic value

$1.54

 
Up/down potential

+10%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.21
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  167
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  548
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  187
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  235
  245
  255
  267
  279
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
Operating income, $m
  -20
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
EBITDA, $m
  23
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  -65
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -65
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  776
  737
  754
  774
  796
  820
  846
  875
  906
  940
  976
  1,014
  1,056
  1,099
  1,146
  1,195
  1,248
  1,303
  1,362
  1,424
  1,489
  1,558
  1,631
  1,708
  1,789
  1,874
  1,963
  2,058
  2,157
  2,262
  2,371
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  722
  737
  754
  774
  796
  820
  846
  875
  906
  940
  976
  1,014
  1,056
  1,099
  1,146
  1,195
  1,248
  1,303
  1,362
  1,424
  1,489
  1,558
  1,631
  1,708
  1,789
  1,874
  1,963
  2,058
  2,157
  2,262
  2,371
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.230
  0.230
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
  0.231
Average production assets, $m
  783
  799
  817
  838
  862
  888
  916
  948
  981
  1,018
  1,057
  1,099
  1,143
  1,191
  1,241
  1,295
  1,352
  1,412
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,688
  1,767
  1,850
  1,937
  2,030
  2,127
  2,229
  2,336
  2,450
  2,569
Working capital, $m
  8
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Total debt, $m
  420
  398
  408
  419
  431
  445
  460
  477
  495
  514
  535
  557
  581
  606
  633
  662
  692
  724
  757
  793
  831
  871
  912
  957
  1,003
  1,052
  1,104
  1,158
  1,215
  1,276
  1,339
Total liabilities, $m
  447
  425
  435
  446
  458
  472
  487
  504
  522
  541
  562
  584
  608
  633
  660
  689
  719
  751
  784
  820
  858
  898
  939
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,303
  1,366
Total equity, $m
  329
  313
  320
  328
  337
  348
  359
  371
  384
  398
  414
  430
  448
  466
  486
  507
  529
  553
  577
  604
  631
  661
  692
  724
  758
  794
  832
  873
  915
  959
  1,005
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  776
  738
  755
  774
  795
  820
  846
  875
  906
  939
  976
  1,014
  1,056
  1,099
  1,146
  1,196
  1,248
  1,304
  1,361
  1,424
  1,489
  1,559
  1,631
  1,708
  1,788
  1,873
  1,963
  2,058
  2,157
  2,262
  2,371
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.277
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.381
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424
  0.424

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -65
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  112
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -198
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
Free cash flow, $m
  64
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  75
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  68
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.7
  80.3
  71.7
  63.8
  56.6
  50.1
  44.2
  38.9
  34.2
  30.0
  26.3
  23.0
  20.1
  17.5
  15.3
  13.3
  11.6
  10.0
  8.7
  7.6
  6.5
  5.7
  4.9
  4.2
  3.7
  3.2
  2.7
  2.4
  2.0
  1.8

Global Ship Lease, Inc. is a holding company and containership charter owner. The Company's activity consists of the ownership and chartering out of containerships. It owns a fleet of containerships with a range of sizes. Its fleet comprises over 20 containerships, with a combined capacity of over 82,310 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) and a weighted average age of over 11.0 years, and a non-weighted average age of over 11.3 years. Its vessels include CMA CGM Matisse, CMA CGM Utrillo, Delmas Keta, Julie Delmas, Kumasi, Marie Delmas, CMA CGM La Tour, CMA CGM Manet, CMA CGM Alcazar, CMA CGM Chateau d'If, CMA CGM Thalassa, CMA CGM Jamaica, CMA CGM Sambhar and CMA CGM America. Approximately 10 vessels are owned by companies incorporated in Cyprus; over four by companies incorporated in Hong Kong, and approximately one is held by another Marshall Islands company. Its subsidiary, Global Ship Lease Services Limited, provides administrative services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Global Ship Lease Cl A (GSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 118.2%
Total Debt to Equity 127.7%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital -8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Return On Equity -17.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69%
EBITDA Margin 12.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Operating Margin -12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -38.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Net Profit Margin -38.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -4.6%

GSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $167 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Global Ship Lease Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Global Ship Lease Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for GSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Global Ship Lease Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Global Ship Lease Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.6% for Global Ship Lease Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Global Ship Lease Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GSL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GSL are equal to 468.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Global Ship Lease Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GSL is equal to -9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $329 million for Global Ship Lease Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.549 million for Global Ship Lease Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Global Ship Lease Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Global Ship Lease Announces Fleet Update   [08:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 11:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Launches Secured Notes Offering   [Jun-28-17 03:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Global Ship Lease Files its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-12-17 04:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Global Ship Lease reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 08:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ GLOBAL SHIP LEASE, INC. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Global Ship Lease Files its Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-18-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL)   [Dec-02  11:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Galena Biopharma Inc (GALE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-22  03:52PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of GSL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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