Intrinsic value of Guidance Software - GUID

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$6.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$6.05

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GUID stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.74
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  391
  410
  430
  451
  473
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  131
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  391
  410
  430
  451
  473
Operating income, $m
  -21
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
EBITDA, $m
  -16
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -21
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -21
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  74
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.820
  1.825
  1.803
  1.824
  1.817
  1.811
  1.818
  1.825
  1.831
  1.828
  1.824
  1.821
  1.828
  1.817
  1.817
  1.816
  1.824
  1.824
  1.817
  1.825
  1.819
  1.815
  1.823
  1.819
  1.822
  1.824
  1.822
  1.816
  1.815
  1.819
  1.819
Average production assets, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Working capital, $m
  -19
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
Total debt, $m
  4
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -1
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  43
  48
  54
  59
  66
  72
  79
  87
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
Total liabilities, $m
  74
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  142
  149
  157
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
Total equity, $m
  0
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  74
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  126
  131
  138
  143
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
  232
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.080
  -1.680
  -1.280
  -0.890
  -0.500
  -0.120
  0.250
  0.620
  0.970
  1.310
  1.640
  1.960
  2.270
  2.570
  2.860
  3.140
  3.400
  3.660
  3.900
  4.130
  4.360
  4.570
  4.780
  4.970
  5.160
  5.340
  5.510
  5.680
  5.830
  5.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.148
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  -8
  -12
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  -13
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  35
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  22
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  32
  33
  34
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  46
  49
  52
  55
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  -29
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  17.6
  6.2
  2.2
  0.8
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Guidance Software, Inc., a technology company, provides forensic security solutions in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It provides endpoint investigation solutions for cybersecurity, security incident response, e-discovery, data privacy, and forensic analysis. The company's products include EnCase Endpoint Investigator, a platform that enables an organization to search, collect, preserve, and analyze data on the servers, desktops, and laptops across the network; and EnCase Endpoint Security, which provides crucial information technology cybersecurity functionality. Its products also comprise EnCase eDiscovery that addresses the end-to-end e-discovery needs; EnCase Forensic, a desktop-based product used for collecting, preserving, analyzing, and authenticating electronic computer forensic data for use in criminal and civil court proceedings; EnCase Portable, a triage and collection solution; and EnCase App Central, an online marketplace that allows developers and investigation professionals the opportunity to share and discover the latest apps. In addition, the company provides Tableau appliances comprising write blockers, forensic duplicators, and storage devices; and consulting services, such as e-discovery, network security incident response, civil/criminal digital investigation, implementation services, guidance software advisory program, cloud review, and training services, as well as customer service and technical support services. It serves government agencies and corporations in financial and insurance services, technology, defense contracting, telecom, pharmaceutical, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail industries. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Guidance Software (GUID)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.2
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -26.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.2%
Return On Total Capital -280%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -151.1%
Return On Equity -381.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -185%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.6%
EBITDA Margin -14.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Operating Margin -18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15%
Pre-Tax Margin -18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.9%
Net Profit Margin -18.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

GUID stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GUID stock intrinsic value calculation we used $111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Guidance Software. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Guidance Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GUID stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GUID is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Guidance Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Guidance Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GUID stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GUID stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Guidance Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Guidance Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GUID stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GUID are equal to 16.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Guidance Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GUID is equal to -25.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Guidance Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.722 million for Guidance Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Guidance Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Guidance Software and kCura Expand Strategic Partnership   [Apr-26-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Apr-03-17 06:15PM  Zacks]
▶ How Guidance Software, Inc. (GUID) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 07:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Guidance Software reports 3Q loss   [Nov-03-16 05:27PM  AP]
▶ Guidance Software Announces Sponsorship of Splunk .conf2016   [Sep-21-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Guidance Software reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-16 05:20PM  AP]
▶ Guidance Software Delivers Real-Time Continuous Monitoring   [Jul-14-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Guidance Software reports 1Q loss   [May-05-16 05:16PM  AP]
▶ Guidance Software Settles Proxy Contest   [09:05AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of GUID Financial statements of GUID
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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