Intrinsic value of Goldfield - GV

Previous Close

$4.05

  Intrinsic Value

$3.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

  Value-price divergence*

+395%

Previous close

$4.05

 
Intrinsic value

$3.82

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+395%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of GV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.44
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  394
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  109
  122
  125
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  394
Operating income, $m
  21
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
EBITDA, $m
  27
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Tax expense, $m
  8
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  13
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  91
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.857
  1.873
  1.863
  1.853
  1.857
  1.861
  1.854
  1.847
  1.852
  1.857
  1.862
  1.857
  1.863
  1.868
  1.856
  1.853
  1.851
  1.857
  1.856
  1.855
  1.861
  1.854
  1.854
  1.861
  1.861
  1.862
  1.858
  1.859
  1.856
  1.858
  1.852
Average production assets, $m
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
Working capital, $m
  33
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Total debt, $m
  22
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
Total liabilities, $m
  43
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
Total equity, $m
  48
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  91
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  174
  181
  191
  199
  208
  219
  229
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.458
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.386
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  21
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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The Goldfield Corporation provides electrical construction services to electric utilities and industrial companies in the United States. It is involved in the construction and maintenance of electric utility facilities; and provision of electrical contracting services. The company’s electrical construction business includes the construction of transmission lines, concrete foundations, distribution systems, fiber optic splicing, substations and other electrical services. The Goldfield Corporation was founded in 1906 and is based in Melbourne, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Goldfield (GV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 33.3%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 19.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 31.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
EBITDA Margin 20.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 10%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

GV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $130 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Goldfield. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Goldfield. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Goldfield, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Goldfield.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Goldfield.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Goldfield. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GV are equal to 26.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Goldfield operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GV is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $48 million for Goldfield - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.506 million for Goldfield is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Goldfield at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Goldfield Announces Second-Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-09-17 04:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces Executive Promotions   [Jun-19-17 03:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Presidents Comments at Goldfields Annual Meeting   [May-25-17 04:48PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Goldfield Announces First-Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:33PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 03:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : January 24, 2017   [Jan-24-17 12:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : December 8, 2016   [Dec-08-16 02:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : November 28, 2016   [Nov-28-16 12:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Meet Argan, Mighty Mite Of The Power Industry, Up 49% Since Breaking Out   [Oct-06-16 04:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Goldfield Corp. : August 12, 2016   [Aug-12-16 02:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Goldfield Announces Improved Results   [08:08AM  Marketwired]
▶ 10-Q for Goldfield Corp.   [Aug-17  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Goldfield Corp.   [May-18  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Goldfield Corp.   [Apr-27  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Goldfield Announces 2014 Results   [Mar-30  05:34PM  at noodls]
▶ Goldfield Announces 2014 Results   [05:07PM  Marketwired]
▶ A bigger paycheck for TriNet?   [Mar-03  09:30AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ 10-Q for Goldfield Corp.   [Nov-14  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Why Goldfield (GV) Stock Is Surging Today   [Aug-14  01:10PM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of GV Financial statements of GV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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