Intrinsic value of GW Pharmaceuticals ADR - GWPH

Previous Close

$122.32

  Intrinsic Value

$9.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$122.32

 
Intrinsic value

$9.96

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of GWPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -62.86
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  118
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
Operating income, $m
  -105
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
EBITDA, $m
  -101
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -105
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
Tax expense, $m
  -28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -77
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  455
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  551
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
  198
  208
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
  198
  208
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.135
  0.133
  0.140
  0.136
  0.132
  0.138
  0.133
  0.137
  0.132
  0.136
  0.138
  0.133
  0.135
  0.137
  0.137
  0.132
  0.133
  0.132
  0.133
  0.137
  0.136
  0.135
  0.134
  0.137
  0.134
  0.136
  0.134
  0.135
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
Average production assets, $m
  42
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
Working capital, $m
  450
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Total debt, $m
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  122
  130
  140
  149
  159
Total liabilities, $m
  66
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
Total equity, $m
  484
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  550
  99
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  153
  159
  166
  173
  182
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  238
  249
  262
  274
  288
  301
  315
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.012
  0.250
  0.300
  0.350
  0.410
  0.460
  0.520
  0.580
  0.640
  0.700
  0.760
  0.820
  0.870
  0.930
  0.990
  1.040
  1.100
  1.150
  1.200
  1.250
  1.290
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.500
  1.540
  1.570
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -77
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  -84
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -103
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
Free cash flow, $m
  -114
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  252
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  251
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  99
  103
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  170
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -186
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  455
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  430
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  412
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.2
  76.0
  66.1
  57.5
  50.0
  43.5
  37.7
  32.7
  28.4
  24.6
  21.4
  18.5
  16.1
  13.9
  12.1
  10.5
  9.0
  7.8
  6.8
  5.9
  5.1
  4.4
  3.8
  3.3
  2.8
  2.4
  2.1
  1.8
  1.6
  1.3

GW Pharmaceuticals plc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapeutics from its cannabinoid product platform in a range of disease areas. The Company's lead cannabinoid product candidate is Epidiolex, which is a liquid formulation of pure plant-derived cannabidiol (CBD). The Company offers Sativex (nabiximols), which is indicated for the treatment of spasticity due to multiple sclerosis (MS). The Company operates through three segments: Commercial, Sativex Research and Development, and Pipeline Research and Development. The Commercial segment distributes and sells the Company's commercial products. The Sativex Research and Development segment seeks to maximize the potential of Sativex through the development of new indications. The Pipeline Research and Development segment seeks to develop cannabinoid medications other than Sativex across a range of therapeutic areas using its cannabinoid technology platform.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GW Pharmaceuticals ADR (GWPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -479.9
Price to Sales 2842.4
Price to Book 76.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -358.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -324.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -62.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 29.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.2%
Total Debt to Equity 1.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -17.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.7%
Return On Total Capital -19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.8%
Return On Equity -19.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.2%
EBITDA Margin -776.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -341.7%
Operating Margin -807.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -355.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -807.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -356.6%
Net Profit Margin -592.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -265.1%
Effective Tax Rate 26.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

GWPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the GWPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GW Pharmaceuticals ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GW Pharmaceuticals ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our GWPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for GWPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GW Pharmaceuticals ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GW Pharmaceuticals ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of GWPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 300%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for GWPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for GW Pharmaceuticals ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GW Pharmaceuticals ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the GWPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for GWPH are equal to 319.2%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GW Pharmaceuticals ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for GWPH is equal to -38.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $484 million for GW Pharmaceuticals ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.365 million for GW Pharmaceuticals ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GW Pharmaceuticals ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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Financial statements of GWPH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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