Intrinsic value of Haemonetics - HAE

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$40.28

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$40.28

 
Intrinsic value

$4.96

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HAE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  909
  927
  949
  973
  1,000
  1,031
  1,064
  1,100
  1,139
  1,182
  1,227
  1,275
  1,327
  1,382
  1,441
  1,503
  1,569
  1,639
  1,712
  1,790
  1,872
  1,959
  2,051
  2,147
  2,249
  2,356
  2,469
  2,587
  2,712
  2,844
  2,982
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  886
  906
  928
  954
  982
  1,012
  1,046
  1,082
  1,122
  1,164
  1,182
  1,230
  1,281
  1,335
  1,393
  1,454
  1,518
  1,587
  1,659
  1,735
  1,815
  1,900
  1,990
  2,084
  2,183
  2,287
  2,397
  2,513
  2,635
  2,763
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  953
  886
  906
  928
  954
  982
  1,012
  1,046
  1,082
  1,122
  1,164
  1,182
  1,230
  1,281
  1,335
  1,393
  1,454
  1,518
  1,587
  1,659
  1,735
  1,815
  1,900
  1,990
  2,084
  2,183
  2,287
  2,397
  2,513
  2,635
  2,763
Operating income, $m
  -44
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
EBITDA, $m
  46
  128
  131
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  157
  163
  169
  175
  183
  190
  198
  207
  216
  225
  236
  246
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Earnings before tax, $m
  -53
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
Tax expense, $m
  3
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Net income, $m
  -56
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,319
  1,228
  1,256
  1,289
  1,325
  1,365
  1,409
  1,457
  1,509
  1,565
  1,625
  1,689
  1,758
  1,831
  1,908
  1,991
  2,078
  2,170
  2,268
  2,371
  2,480
  2,595
  2,716
  2,844
  2,979
  3,121
  3,270
  3,427
  3,592
  3,766
  3,949
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,204
  1,228
  1,256
  1,289
  1,325
  1,365
  1,409
  1,457
  1,509
  1,565
  1,625
  1,689
  1,758
  1,831
  1,908
  1,991
  2,078
  2,170
  2,268
  2,371
  2,480
  2,595
  2,716
  2,844
  2,979
  3,121
  3,270
  3,427
  3,592
  3,766
  3,949
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.755
  0.755
  0.756
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
  0.755
Average production assets, $m
  554
  565
  578
  592
  609
  628
  648
  670
  694
  720
  747
  777
  808
  842
  877
  915
  955
  998
  1,043
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,249
  1,308
  1,370
  1,435
  1,503
  1,576
  1,652
  1,732
  1,816
Working capital, $m
  302
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  686
  719
  754
Total debt, $m
  408
  376
  389
  404
  420
  439
  459
  481
  505
  531
  559
  588
  620
  653
  689
  727
  767
  809
  854
  902
  952
  1,005
  1,061
  1,119
  1,181
  1,246
  1,315
  1,387
  1,464
  1,544
  1,628
Total liabilities, $m
  598
  565
  578
  593
  609
  628
  648
  670
  694
  720
  748
  777
  809
  842
  878
  916
  956
  998
  1,043
  1,091
  1,141
  1,194
  1,250
  1,308
  1,370
  1,435
  1,504
  1,576
  1,653
  1,733
  1,817
Total equity, $m
  722
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  878
  912
  949
  989
  1,031
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,609
  1,685
  1,766
  1,851
  1,940
  2,034
  2,133
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,320
  1,228
  1,256
  1,289
  1,324
  1,365
  1,409
  1,457
  1,509
  1,565
  1,626
  1,689
  1,758
  1,831
  1,909
  1,991
  2,078
  2,170
  2,268
  2,371
  2,480
  2,595
  2,717
  2,844
  2,979
  3,120
  3,270
  3,427
  3,593
  3,767
  3,950
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.565
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.504
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -56
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  86
  88
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  105
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
Funds from operations, $m
  97
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  312
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  89
  104
  106
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  124
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
New CAPEX, $m
  -102
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -105
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -266
Free cash flow, $m
  17
  21
  31
  30
  29
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -63
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  31
  44
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  104
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  90
  29
  27
  26
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  86
  27
  24
  21
  18
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7

Haemonetics Corporation, a healthcare company, provides products for processing, handling, and analysis of blood. The company operates through five segments: North America Plasma; Americas Blood Center and Hospital; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Asia Pacific; and Japan. It offers plasma collection and storage products, including PCS brand plasma collection equipment and disposables, plasma collection containers, and intravenous solutions, as well as information technology platforms for plasma customers to manage their donors, operations, and supply chain; Multicomponent Collection System brand apheresis equipment to collect specific blood components integrated from the donor; Automated Cell Processor brand solution to automate the washing and freezing of red cell components; and whole blood collection, filtration, and processing products. The company also offers hospital products comprising TEG thrombelastograph hemostasis analyzer system, a blood diagnostic instrument that measure a patient’s hemostasis or the ability to form and maintain blood clots; Cell Saver system, a surgical blood salvage system for cardiovascular surgeries; and OrthoPAT surgical blood salvage systems for orthopedic procedures. In addition, it offers SafeTrace Tx, a software solution that manages blood product inventory and transfusion, as well as performs patient cross-matching; and BloodTrack suite of solutions for managing, tracking, and controlling blood products from the hospital blood center through to transfusion to the patient. The company markets and sells its products to bio-pharmaceutical companies, blood collection groups and independent blood centers, hospitals and hospital service providers, group purchasing organizations, and national health organizations through its direct sales force, as well as independent distributors. Haemonetics Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Braintree, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Haemonetics (HAE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -36.6
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 102.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.6%
Total Debt to Equity 56.5%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Equity -7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.4%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Operating Margin -4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Net Profit Margin -6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate -5.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

HAE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HAE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $909 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Haemonetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Haemonetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HAE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for HAE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Haemonetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Haemonetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HAE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HAE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Haemonetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Haemonetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HAE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HAE are equal to 60.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Haemonetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HAE is equal to 25.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $722 million for Haemonetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.009 million for Haemonetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Haemonetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Haemonetics reports 4Q loss   [May-08-17 06:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] The Add-On Deal Roundup: April 28   [Apr-28-17 06:29PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Haemonetics tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Haemonetics Corporation (HAE)?   [09:02AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Haemonetics Announces the Release of NextGen DMS 4   [Dec-08-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Haemonetics CEO Completes Open Market Share Purchase   [Aug-08-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Haemonetics Appoints Bill Burke CFO   [06:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of HAE Financial statements of HAE Annual reports of HAE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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