Intrinsic value of Haemonetics - HAE

Previous Close

$57.84

  Intrinsic Value

$2.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$57.84

 
Intrinsic value

$2.52

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HAE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.53
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  886
  904
  925
  948
  975
  1,004
  1,037
  1,072
  1,110
  1,152
  1,196
  1,243
  1,294
  1,347
  1,404
  1,465
  1,529
  1,597
  1,669
  1,745
  1,825
  1,910
  1,999
  2,093
  2,192
  2,296
  2,406
  2,522
  2,644
  2,772
  2,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  948
  969
  993
  1,021
  1,051
  1,084
  1,120
  1,160
  1,202
  1,247
  1,274
  1,326
  1,381
  1,440
  1,502
  1,568
  1,637
  1,711
  1,789
  1,871
  1,958
  2,049
  2,146
  2,247
  2,354
  2,467
  2,585
  2,710
  2,841
  2,980
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  906
  948
  969
  993
  1,021
  1,051
  1,084
  1,120
  1,160
  1,202
  1,247
  1,274
  1,326
  1,381
  1,440
  1,502
  1,568
  1,637
  1,711
  1,789
  1,871
  1,958
  2,049
  2,146
  2,247
  2,354
  2,467
  2,585
  2,710
  2,841
  2,980
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -44
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
EBITDA, $m
  71
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -26
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,239
  1,121
  1,147
  1,177
  1,210
  1,246
  1,287
  1,330
  1,378
  1,429
  1,484
  1,542
  1,605
  1,672
  1,742
  1,818
  1,897
  1,982
  2,071
  2,165
  2,264
  2,369
  2,480
  2,597
  2,720
  2,849
  2,985
  3,129
  3,280
  3,439
  3,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,099
  1,121
  1,147
  1,177
  1,210
  1,246
  1,287
  1,330
  1,378
  1,429
  1,484
  1,542
  1,605
  1,672
  1,742
  1,818
  1,897
  1,982
  2,071
  2,165
  2,264
  2,369
  2,480
  2,597
  2,720
  2,849
  2,985
  3,129
  3,280
  3,439
  3,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.805
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  521
  531
  544
  558
  573
  591
  610
  630
  653
  677
  703
  731
  761
  792
  826
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,123
  1,175
  1,231
  1,289
  1,350
  1,415
  1,483
  1,554
  1,630
  1,709
Working capital, $m
  299
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  625
  656
  687
  721
Total debt, $m
  315
  263
  274
  285
  299
  313
  329
  347
  366
  386
  408
  431
  456
  483
  511
  541
  573
  607
  642
  680
  719
  761
  806
  852
  901
  953
  1,007
  1,064
  1,125
  1,188
  1,255
Total liabilities, $m
  499
  447
  458
  469
  483
  497
  513
  531
  550
  570
  592
  615
  640
  667
  695
  725
  757
  791
  826
  864
  903
  945
  990
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
Total equity, $m
  740
  674
  689
  707
  727
  749
  773
  800
  828
  859
  892
  927
  965
  1,005
  1,047
  1,092
  1,140
  1,191
  1,245
  1,301
  1,361
  1,424
  1,491
  1,561
  1,635
  1,712
  1,794
  1,880
  1,971
  2,067
  2,167
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,239
  1,121
  1,147
  1,176
  1,210
  1,246
  1,286
  1,331
  1,378
  1,429
  1,484
  1,542
  1,605
  1,672
  1,742
  1,817
  1,897
  1,982
  2,071
  2,165
  2,264
  2,369
  2,481
  2,597
  2,720
  2,849
  2,985
  3,128
  3,280
  3,439
  3,606
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.426
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.546
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601
  0.601

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  84
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  26
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -73
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
Free cash flow, $m
  87
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -93
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  33
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -60
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  178
  188
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -18
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  43
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -26
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.6
  95.3
  92.9
  90.5
  88.2
  85.9
  83.6
  81.4
  79.2
  77.1
  75.4
  73.8
  72.2
  70.5
  68.9
  67.3
  65.8
  64.3
  62.7
  61.3
  59.8
  58.4
  57.0
  55.6
  54.2
  52.9
  51.6
  50.4
  49.1
  47.9

Haemonetics Corporation (Haemonetics) is a healthcare company. The Company provides various products to customers involved in the processing, handling and analysis of blood. The Company's segments include Japan, EMEA, North America Plasma and All Other. Haemonetics provides plasma collection systems and software, which enable plasma fractionators to make pharmaceuticals. The Company enables plasma collection customers to source from it a range of products necessary for plasma collection and storage, including PCS brand plasma collection equipment and disposables, plasma collection containers and intravenous solutions, such as saline. Haemonetics offers automated blood component and manual whole blood collection systems to blood collection centers to collect blood products. The Company offers a range of blood management solutions. The Company has a suite of integrated software solutions, which include solutions for blood drive planning and blood collection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Haemonetics (HAE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -116.3
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 36
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.3%
Total Debt to Equity 42.6%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Return On Equity -3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin -2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Net Profit Margin -2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 3.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

HAE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HAE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $886 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Haemonetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Haemonetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HAE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HAE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Haemonetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Haemonetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HAE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HAE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Haemonetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Haemonetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HAE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HAE are equal to 58.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Haemonetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HAE is equal to 24.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $740 million for Haemonetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.562 million for Haemonetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Haemonetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Haemonetics Shows Market Leadership With Jump To 91 RS Rating   [Nov-09-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Haemonetics announces plans to cut 350 jobs   [08:22AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Haemonetics tops Street 2Q forecasts   [06:21AM  Associated Press]
▶ Robert E. Abernathy Joins Haemonetics Board of Directors   [Oct-18-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Haemonetics Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:36AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Haemonetics Shows Market Leadership With Jump To 81 RS Rating   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Haemonetics tops 1Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Haemonetics Corp. : July 6, 2017   [Jul-06-17 01:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Haemonetics Corp. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Haemonetics Corp. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Haemonetics reports 4Q loss   [May-08-17 06:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] The Add-On Deal Roundup: April 28   [Apr-28-17 06:29PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Haemonetics tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:18AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HAE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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