Intrinsic value of Halozyme Therapeutics - HALO

Previous Close

$11.90

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

+567%

Previous close

$11.90

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+567%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HALO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.89
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  147
  150
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  439
  460
  482
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  181
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  230
  181
  185
  189
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
Operating income, $m
  -83
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
EBITDA, $m
  -81
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  8
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  -102
  -38
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -103
  -38
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  205
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  262
  267
  273
  280
  288
  297
  307
  317
  328
  341
  354
  368
  383
  398
  415
  433
  452
  472
  494
  516
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  679
  712
  746
  782
  820
  860
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  57
  267
  273
  280
  288
  297
  307
  317
  328
  341
  354
  368
  383
  398
  415
  433
  452
  472
  494
  516
  540
  565
  591
  619
  648
  679
  712
  746
  782
  820
  860
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.579
  0.562
  0.560
  0.561
  0.563
  0.562
  0.560
  0.562
  0.561
  0.560
  0.559
  0.560
  0.561
  0.563
  0.561
  0.561
  0.562
  0.561
  0.561
  0.562
  0.561
  0.561
  0.562
  0.561
  0.562
  0.561
  0.560
  0.560
  0.561
  0.561
  0.560
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Working capital, $m
  202
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total debt, $m
  217
  164
  169
  175
  183
  190
  199
  208
  219
  230
  241
  254
  267
  282
  297
  313
  330
  348
  367
  387
  409
  431
  455
  480
  506
  534
  563
  594
  627
  661
  697
Total liabilities, $m
  294
  241
  246
  252
  260
  267
  276
  285
  296
  307
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  486
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
  640
  671
  704
  738
  774
Total equity, $m
  -32
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  262
  268
  273
  280
  289
  297
  307
  317
  329
  341
  353
  368
  382
  399
  416
  433
  452
  472
  493
  516
  540
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  711
  746
  782
  820
  860
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -6.781
  6.120
  6.180
  6.250
  6.330
  6.410
  6.490
  6.570
  6.660
  6.740
  6.820
  6.910
  6.990
  7.070
  7.150
  7.220
  7.300
  7.370
  7.440
  7.510
  7.570
  7.640
  7.700
  7.760
  7.810
  7.870
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
  8.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  -4.158
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  -38
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  -38
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -50
  -38
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  -127
  -39
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  149
  -53
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  97
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  103
  109
  114
  120
  125
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  151
  44
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  127
  132
  140
  146
  154
  161
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  75
  -97
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -92
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
Discount rate, %
 
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -87
  -28
  -26
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  20.8
  8.6
  3.5
  1.5
  0.6
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc., a biotechnology company, researches, develops, and commercializes human enzymes. Its human enzymes are used to facilitate the delivery of injected drugs and fluids, enhancing the efficacy and the convenience of other drugs or can be used to alter tissue structures for clinical benefit. The company’s products are based on the Enhanze technology, a patented recombinant human hyaluronidase enzyme (rHuPH20) that enables the subcutaneous delivery of injectable biologics, such as monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutic molecules, as well as small molecules and fluids. It offers Hylenex recombinant, a formulation of rHuPH20 to facilitate subcutaneous fluid administration for achieving hydration; to enhance the dispersion and absorption of other injected drugs; in subcutaneous urography; and to enhance resorption of radiopaque agents. The company is also developing PEGylated recombinant human hyaluronidase (PEGPH20) for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, gastric cancer, metastatic breast cancer, and other cancers in combination with various cancer therapies. It has collaborative partnerships with F. Hoffmann-La Roche, Ltd., Hoffmann-La Roche, Inc., Baxalta US Inc., Baxalta GmbH, Pfizer Inc., Janssen Biotech, Inc., AbbVie, Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, and Genentech. Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15
Price to Sales 10.5
Price to Book -48.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -30.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -625%
Total Debt to Equity -678.1%
Interest Coverage -25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -44.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.4%
Return On Total Capital -74.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -73.8%
Return On Equity -1872.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -865.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.4%
EBITDA Margin -65.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.2%
Operating Margin -56.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -69.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.3%
Net Profit Margin -70.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

HALO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HALO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $147 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Halozyme Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Halozyme Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HALO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for HALO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Halozyme Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Halozyme Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HALO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HALO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Halozyme Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Halozyme Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HALO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HALO are equal to 2.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Halozyme Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HALO is equal to 9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-32 million for Halozyme Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 128.682 million for Halozyme Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Halozyme Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Halozyme Therapeutics reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Benzinga's Option Alert Recap From June 15   [Jun-15-17 04:05PM  Benzinga]
▶ Why Halozyme Therapeutics Inc. Sank 16.5% in May   [Jun-06-17 09:14AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Halozyme Therapeutics reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc Is Falling   [Mar-30-17 11:48AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. Jumped 15.6% in January   [Feb-02-17 09:30AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Biotech Stocks to Buy in February   [Jan-26-17 04:28PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Halozyme Estimates 2017 Revenue of $115M to $130M   [Jan-11-17 10:10AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Here's Why Halozyme Therapeutics Fell as Much as 11.1% Today   [Jan-10-17 03:52PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of HALO Financial statements of HALO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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