Intrinsic value of Hasbro - HAS

Previous Close

$98.13

  Intrinsic Value

$77.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

Previous close

$98.13

 
Intrinsic value

$77.84

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HAS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.86
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  5,020
  5,408
  5,620
  5,846
  6,088
  6,344
  6,616
  6,905
  7,210
  7,534
  7,875
  8,236
  8,617
  9,019
  9,442
  9,888
  10,358
  10,853
  11,374
  11,922
  12,499
  13,106
  13,744
  14,415
  15,120
  15,862
  16,641
  17,460
  18,321
  19,226
  20,176
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,556
  4,731
  4,919
  5,118
  5,331
  5,556
  5,795
  6,048
  6,316
  6,599
  6,818
  7,133
  7,466
  7,816
  8,186
  8,575
  8,985
  9,416
  9,870
  10,347
  10,849
  11,378
  11,933
  12,517
  13,131
  13,776
  14,454
  15,167
  15,916
  16,703
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,232
  4,556
  4,731
  4,919
  5,118
  5,331
  5,556
  5,795
  6,048
  6,316
  6,599
  6,818
  7,133
  7,466
  7,816
  8,186
  8,575
  8,985
  9,416
  9,870
  10,347
  10,849
  11,378
  11,933
  12,517
  13,131
  13,776
  14,454
  15,167
  15,916
  16,703
Operating income, $m
  788
  852
  889
  928
  969
  1,013
  1,060
  1,110
  1,162
  1,218
  1,277
  1,418
  1,484
  1,553
  1,626
  1,702
  1,783
  1,869
  1,958
  2,053
  2,152
  2,256
  2,366
  2,482
  2,603
  2,731
  2,865
  3,006
  3,154
  3,310
  3,474
EBITDA, $m
  943
  1,042
  1,083
  1,126
  1,173
  1,222
  1,275
  1,330
  1,389
  1,451
  1,517
  1,587
  1,660
  1,738
  1,819
  1,905
  1,996
  2,091
  2,191
  2,297
  2,408
  2,525
  2,648
  2,777
  2,913
  3,056
  3,206
  3,364
  3,530
  3,704
  3,887
Interest expense (income), $m
  89
  93
  100
  107
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  163
  174
  186
  199
  212
  226
  241
  256
  273
  290
  308
  327
  347
  369
  391
  414
  439
  465
  492
  520
  551
  582
Earnings before tax, $m
  692
  759
  789
  820
  854
  889
  927
  968
  1,010
  1,055
  1,103
  1,232
  1,285
  1,341
  1,400
  1,462
  1,527
  1,596
  1,668
  1,744
  1,825
  1,909
  1,998
  2,091
  2,189
  2,292
  2,400
  2,514
  2,634
  2,759
  2,892
Tax expense, $m
  159
  205
  213
  221
  231
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  412
  431
  450
  471
  493
  515
  539
  565
  591
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
Net income, $m
  551
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  677
  706
  737
  770
  805
  899
  938
  979
  1,022
  1,067
  1,115
  1,165
  1,218
  1,273
  1,332
  1,394
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,673
  1,752
  1,835
  1,923
  2,014
  2,111

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,282
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,091
  5,150
  5,352
  5,568
  5,798
  6,042
  6,301
  6,576
  6,867
  7,175
  7,500
  7,844
  8,207
  8,589
  8,992
  9,417
  9,865
  10,336
  10,832
  11,355
  11,904
  12,482
  13,089
  13,728
  14,400
  15,106
  15,849
  16,629
  17,449
  18,310
  19,215
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,809
  5,150
  5,352
  5,568
  5,798
  6,042
  6,301
  6,576
  6,867
  7,175
  7,500
  7,844
  8,207
  8,589
  8,992
  9,417
  9,865
  10,336
  10,832
  11,355
  11,904
  12,482
  13,089
  13,728
  14,400
  15,106
  15,849
  16,629
  17,449
  18,310
  19,215
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.318
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Average production assets, $m
  440
  1,109
  1,152
  1,199
  1,248
  1,301
  1,356
  1,415
  1,478
  1,544
  1,614
  1,688
  1,766
  1,849
  1,936
  2,027
  2,123
  2,225
  2,332
  2,444
  2,562
  2,687
  2,817
  2,955
  3,100
  3,252
  3,411
  3,579
  3,756
  3,941
  4,136
Working capital, $m
  1,610
  87
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
Total debt, $m
  1,721
  1,819
  1,953
  2,097
  2,250
  2,412
  2,585
  2,768
  2,962
  3,167
  3,384
  3,613
  3,854
  4,109
  4,378
  4,661
  4,959
  5,273
  5,603
  5,951
  6,317
  6,701
  7,106
  7,532
  7,979
  8,449
  8,944
  9,463
  10,009
  10,583
  11,186
Total liabilities, $m
  3,229
  3,430
  3,565
  3,708
  3,861
  4,024
  4,197
  4,380
  4,573
  4,779
  4,995
  5,224
  5,466
  5,720
  5,989
  6,272
  6,570
  6,884
  7,214
  7,562
  7,928
  8,313
  8,718
  9,143
  9,591
  10,061
  10,555
  11,075
  11,621
  12,195
  12,797
Total equity, $m
  1,863
  1,720
  1,788
  1,860
  1,936
  2,018
  2,105
  2,196
  2,294
  2,396
  2,505
  2,620
  2,741
  2,869
  3,003
  3,145
  3,295
  3,452
  3,618
  3,792
  3,976
  4,169
  4,372
  4,585
  4,810
  5,046
  5,293
  5,554
  5,828
  6,116
  6,418
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,092
  5,150
  5,353
  5,568
  5,797
  6,042
  6,302
  6,576
  6,867
  7,175
  7,500
  7,844
  8,207
  8,589
  8,992
  9,417
  9,865
  10,336
  10,832
  11,354
  11,904
  12,482
  13,090
  13,728
  14,401
  15,107
  15,848
  16,629
  17,449
  18,311
  19,215
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.924
  1.060
  1.090
  1.130
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.198
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  551
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  677
  706
  737
  770
  805
  899
  938
  979
  1,022
  1,067
  1,115
  1,165
  1,218
  1,273
  1,332
  1,394
  1,458
  1,526
  1,598
  1,673
  1,752
  1,835
  1,923
  2,014
  2,111
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  190
  194
  199
  204
  209
  215
  221
  227
  233
  240
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  414
Funds from operations, $m
  732
  744
  770
  798
  827
  858
  892
  927
  964
  1,004
  1,045
  1,068
  1,115
  1,164
  1,215
  1,270
  1,327
  1,387
  1,451
  1,518
  1,588
  1,662
  1,740
  1,822
  1,908
  1,998
  2,093
  2,193
  2,298
  2,409
  2,524
Change in working capital, $m
  -43
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  775
  741
  766
  794
  823
  854
  887
  922
  959
  999
  1,040
  1,062
  1,108
  1,157
  1,208
  1,263
  1,320
  1,379
  1,443
  1,509
  1,579
  1,652
  1,730
  1,811
  1,897
  1,986
  2,081
  2,180
  2,284
  2,394
  2,509
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -394
New CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -138
  -149
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -462
  -485
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -589
Free cash flow, $m
  637
  592
  612
  632
  654
  677
  701
  727
  755
  784
  815
  827
  862
  898
  937
  978
  1,020
  1,066
  1,113
  1,164
  1,216
  1,272
  1,330
  1,392
  1,456
  1,524
  1,596
  1,671
  1,750
  1,833
  1,920
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  125
  134
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  447
  470
  494
  520
  546
  574
  603
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  125
  134
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  447
  470
  494
  520
  546
  574
  603
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  555
  717
  747
  776
  807
  840
  874
  911
  949
  989
  1,032
  1,056
  1,103
  1,153
  1,205
  1,261
  1,319
  1,380
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
  1,657
  1,735
  1,817
  1,904
  1,995
  2,090
  2,191
  2,296
  2,407
  2,523
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -199
  -65
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  211
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  827
  679
  704
  730
  758
  787
  819
  852
  887
  923
  941
  982
  1,025
  1,071
  1,119
  1,169
  1,222
  1,278
  1,337
  1,399
  1,464
  1,532
  1,604
  1,680
  1,759
  1,842
  1,930
  2,022
  2,119
  2,221
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  793
  622
  613
  601
  588
  572
  553
  532
  509
  484
  447
  419
  390
  359
  328
  297
  266
  235
  206
  178
  151
  127
  105
  86
  68
  54
  41
  31
  23
  17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hasbro, Inc. (Hasbro) is a play and entertainment company. The Company's operating segments include the U.S. and Canada, International, and Entertainment and Licensing. From toys and games to content development, including television programming, motion pictures, digital gaming and a consumer products licensing program, Hasbro fulfills the fundamental need for play and connection for children and families around the world. The Company's U.S. and Canada segment is engaged in the marketing and sale of its products in the United States and Canada. The International segment is engaged in the marketing and sale of the Company's product categories to retailers and wholesalers in most countries in Europe, Latin and South America, and the Asia Pacific region and through distributors in those countries where it has no direct presence. The Entertainment and Licensing segment includes the Company's consumer products licensing, digital gaming, television and movie entertainment operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hasbro (HAS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 6.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 64.3%
Total Debt to Equity 92.4%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Total Capital 15.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Return On Equity 31.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.6%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Operating Margin 15.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 23%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Payout Ratio 45.2%

HAS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HAS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5210 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hasbro. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hasbro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HAS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HAS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hasbro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hasbro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HAS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HAS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Hasbro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hasbro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HAS stock is equal to 1.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HAS are equal to 20.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hasbro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HAS is equal to 1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1830 million for Hasbro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 125 million for Hasbro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hasbro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.3 billion.

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Financial statements of HAS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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