Intrinsic value of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct - HASI

Previous Close

$23.15

  Intrinsic Value

$23.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+1%

  Value-price divergence*

+116%

Previous close

$23.15

 
Intrinsic value

$23.29

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+116%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HASI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HASI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.29
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  81
  97
  115
  135
  156
  180
  205
  231
  259
  289
  320
  353
  387
  423
  460
  499
  539
  581
  625
  670
  717
  766
  817
  870
  925
  982
  1,042
  1,104
  1,169
  1,237
  1,307
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  66
  78
  92
  106
  122
  139
  157
  176
  196
  217
  240
  263
  287
  312
  339
  366
  395
  424
  455
  487
  520
  555
  591
  628
  667
  708
  750
  794
  840
  888
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  66
  77
  90
  104
  118
  134
  152
  170
  189
  210
  231
  254
  278
  302
  328
  355
  382
  412
  441
  473
  505
  538
  574
  610
  648
  687
  729
  771
  816
  863
  911
Operating income, $m
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  109
  121
  132
  144
  157
  170
  183
  198
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  353
  375
  397
EBITDA, $m
  23
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  109
  121
  132
  144
  157
  170
  183
  198
  212
  227
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  353
  375
  397
Interest expense (income), $m
  38
  39
  49
  59
  71
  83
  97
  111
  127
  143
  160
  178
  197
  217
  238
  260
  282
  306
  330
  356
  382
  410
  438
  468
  499
  531
  564
  599
  635
  673
  712
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -236
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -236
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,746
  2,068
  2,451
  2,871
  3,328
  3,822
  4,352
  4,917
  5,515
  6,147
  6,812
  7,509
  8,237
  8,998
  9,791
  10,617
  11,476
  12,368
  13,296
  14,260
  15,262
  16,304
  17,387
  18,513
  19,684
  20,904
  22,175
  23,498
  24,878
  26,317
  27,819
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,717
  2,068
  2,451
  2,871
  3,328
  3,822
  4,352
  4,917
  5,515
  6,147
  6,812
  7,509
  8,237
  8,998
  9,791
  10,617
  11,476
  12,368
  13,296
  14,260
  15,262
  16,304
  17,387
  18,513
  19,684
  20,904
  22,175
  23,498
  24,878
  26,317
  27,819
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
Total debt, $m
  975
  1,215
  1,476
  1,764
  2,077
  2,415
  2,777
  3,163
  3,572
  4,005
  4,459
  4,936
  5,434
  5,955
  6,497
  7,062
  7,649
  8,260
  8,895
  9,554
  10,239
  10,952
  11,692
  12,463
  13,264
  14,098
  14,967
  15,873
  16,817
  17,801
  18,828
Total liabilities, $m
  1,175
  1,415
  1,676
  1,964
  2,277
  2,615
  2,977
  3,363
  3,772
  4,205
  4,659
  5,136
  5,634
  6,155
  6,697
  7,262
  7,849
  8,460
  9,095
  9,754
  10,439
  11,152
  11,892
  12,663
  13,464
  14,298
  15,167
  16,073
  17,017
  18,001
  19,028
Total equity, $m
  571
  654
  774
  907
  1,052
  1,208
  1,375
  1,554
  1,743
  1,943
  2,153
  2,373
  2,603
  2,843
  3,094
  3,355
  3,626
  3,908
  4,202
  4,506
  4,823
  5,152
  5,494
  5,850
  6,220
  6,606
  7,007
  7,425
  7,861
  8,316
  8,791
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,746
  2,069
  2,450
  2,871
  3,329
  3,823
  4,352
  4,917
  5,515
  6,148
  6,812
  7,509
  8,237
  8,998
  9,791
  10,617
  11,475
  12,368
  13,297
  14,260
  15,262
  16,304
  17,386
  18,513
  19,684
  20,904
  22,174
  23,498
  24,878
  26,317
  27,819
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.708
  1.860
  1.910
  1.940
  1.970
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -236
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -147
  -158
  -170
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -236
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -298
  -315
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -291
  -308
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -134
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -291
  -308
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  134
  240
  262
  287
  313
  338
  362
  386
  409
  432
  455
  477
  499
  520
  542
  565
  587
  611
  635
  659
  685
  712
  741
  770
  801
  834
  869
  905
  944
  984
  1,027
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  177
  131
  144
  160
  177
  194
  211
  228
  246
  264
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  511
  537
  564
  592
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  163
  371
  406
  447
  490
  532
  573
  614
  655
  696
  737
  777
  817
  857
  899
  942
  984
  1,029
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,223
  1,278
  1,334
  1,393
  1,455
  1,521
  1,589
  1,662
  1,737
  1,817
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  353
  384
  422
  460
  496
  532
  567
  601
  635
  668
  700
  732
  764
  797
  829
  863
  897
  932
  969
  1,007
  1,046
  1,088
  1,131
  1,177
  1,225
  1,276
  1,330
  1,386
  1,446
  1,509
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -143
  -131
  -144
  -160
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -228
  -246
  -264
  -282
  -300
  -318
  -337
  -357
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -487
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -592
  -621
  -652
  -684
  -718
  -753
  -790
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  240
  262
  283
  302
  321
  339
  356
  371
  386
  400
  414
  427
  440
  453
  466
  479
  492
  506
  520
  535
  551
  568
  586
  604
  625
  646
  669
  693
  719
Discount rate, %
 
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  228
  196
  190
  181
  169
  154
  138
  122
  105
  89
  74
  60
  48
  37
  29
  21
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.9
  79.8
  72.1
  65.4
  59.7
  54.8
  50.4
  46.6
  43.2
  40.2
  37.5
  35.1
  32.9
  30.9
  29.0
  27.3
  25.8
  24.4
  23.1
  21.8
  20.7
  19.6
  18.7
  17.7
  16.9
  16.0
  15.3
  14.5
  13.8
  13.2

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. provides debt and equity financing to the energy efficiency and renewable energy markets in the United States. The company’s projects include energy efficiency projects that reduce a building’s or facility’s energy usage or cost through enhancing or installing various building components, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as lighting, energy controls, roofs, windows, building shells, and/or combined heat and power systems. Its projects also comprise renewable energy projects, which deploy cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind to generate power production. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company is headquartered in Annapolis, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct (HASI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.7
Price to Sales 13.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -56.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 170.8%
Total Debt to Equity 170.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.4%
EBITDA Margin 75.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.2%
Operating Margin 18.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 18.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 326.7%

HASI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HASI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HASI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for HASI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HASI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HASI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HASI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HASI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HASI is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $571 million for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.6 million for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hannon Armstrong tops Street 2Q forecasts   [03:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ REIT Stock With 7.5% Dividend, 202% Sales Growth Tests Buy Zone   [Jun-19-17 04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hannon Armstrong meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Solar Stocks You May Be Overlooking   [Feb-17-17 10:11AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is It Time to Sell The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG)?   [Dec-09-16 03:43PM  at Insider Monkey]
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▶ 7 Lucky REITs That Should Outperform   [Aug-22-16 07:00AM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of HASI Financial statements of HASI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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