Intrinsic value of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct - HASI

Previous Close

$23.95

  Intrinsic Value

$33.44

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  Rating & Target

buy

+40%

Previous close

$23.95

 
Intrinsic value

$33.44

 
Up/down potential

+40%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HASI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HASI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.29
  27.30
  25.07
  23.06
  21.26
  19.63
  18.17
  16.85
  15.67
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
Revenue, $m
  81
  103
  129
  159
  192
  230
  272
  318
  368
  421
  479
  540
  605
  673
  745
  820
  899
  981
  1,066
  1,156
  1,248
  1,344
  1,444
  1,548
  1,656
  1,769
  1,885
  2,007
  2,133
  2,265
  2,402
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  70
  88
  108
  131
  156
  185
  216
  250
  286
  325
  367
  411
  457
  506
  557
  610
  666
  724
  785
  847
  913
  981
  1,051
  1,125
  1,201
  1,280
  1,363
  1,448
  1,538
  1,631
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
Total operating expenses, $m
  66
  81
  100
  120
  143
  168
  198
  229
  263
  300
  339
  381
  426
  472
  522
  573
  626
  683
  741
  803
  865
  931
  1,000
  1,070
  1,145
  1,221
  1,301
  1,384
  1,470
  1,561
  1,654
Operating income, $m
  15
  22
  30
  39
  50
  61
  75
  89
  105
  122
  140
  159
  179
  201
  224
  247
  272
  298
  325
  353
  383
  413
  445
  478
  512
  547
  584
  623
  663
  704
  748
EBITDA, $m
  23
  22
  30
  39
  50
  61
  75
  89
  105
  122
  140
  159
  179
  201
  224
  247
  272
  298
  325
  353
  383
  413
  445
  478
  512
  547
  584
  623
  663
  704
  748
Interest expense (income), $m
  38
  39
  52
  67
  84
  104
  126
  150
  177
  206
  237
  271
  306
  344
  384
  426
  469
  515
  563
  613
  665
  719
  775
  833
  893
  956
  1,022
  1,090
  1,160
  1,234
  1,310
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -98
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -260
  -282
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -497
  -529
  -562
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  15
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -98
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -260
  -282
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -497
  -529
  -562

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,746
  2,194
  2,744
  3,377
  4,095
  4,898
  5,788
  6,764
  7,823
  8,965
  10,188
  11,490
  12,868
  14,322
  15,850
  17,451
  19,125
  20,872
  22,691
  24,585
  26,555
  28,603
  30,731
  32,943
  35,241
  37,630
  40,114
  42,697
  45,386
  48,185
  51,100
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,717
  2,194
  2,744
  3,377
  4,095
  4,898
  5,788
  6,764
  7,823
  8,965
  10,188
  11,490
  12,868
  14,322
  15,850
  17,451
  19,125
  20,872
  22,691
  24,585
  26,555
  28,603
  30,731
  32,943
  35,241
  37,630
  40,114
  42,697
  45,386
  48,185
  51,100
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
  0.047
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -69
  -82
  -97
  -114
  -132
  -151
  -171
  -193
  -217
  -241
  -267
  -294
  -322
  -351
  -382
  -414
  -447
  -481
  -517
  -554
  -593
  -633
  -675
  -718
  -764
  -811
  -860
Total debt, $m
  975
  1,301
  1,677
  2,110
  2,601
  3,150
  3,759
  4,426
  5,151
  5,932
  6,769
  7,659
  8,602
  9,596
  10,641
  11,737
  12,882
  14,076
  15,321
  16,616
  17,964
  19,364
  20,820
  22,333
  23,905
  25,539
  27,238
  29,005
  30,844
  32,758
  34,752
Total liabilities, $m
  1,175
  1,501
  1,877
  2,310
  2,801
  3,350
  3,959
  4,626
  5,351
  6,132
  6,969
  7,859
  8,802
  9,796
  10,841
  11,937
  13,082
  14,276
  15,521
  16,816
  18,164
  19,564
  21,020
  22,533
  24,105
  25,739
  27,438
  29,205
  31,044
  32,958
  34,952
Total equity, $m
  571
  693
  867
  1,067
  1,294
  1,548
  1,829
  2,137
  2,472
  2,833
  3,219
  3,631
  4,066
  4,526
  5,009
  5,515
  6,044
  6,595
  7,170
  7,769
  8,391
  9,039
  9,711
  10,410
  11,136
  11,891
  12,676
  13,492
  14,342
  15,226
  16,148
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,746
  2,194
  2,744
  3,377
  4,095
  4,898
  5,788
  6,763
  7,823
  8,965
  10,188
  11,490
  12,868
  14,322
  15,850
  17,452
  19,126
  20,871
  22,691
  24,585
  26,555
  28,603
  30,731
  32,943
  35,241
  37,630
  40,114
  42,697
  45,386
  48,184
  51,100
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.708
  1.880
  1.930
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
  2.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316
  0.316

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -98
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -260
  -282
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -497
  -529
  -562
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -85
  -98
  -112
  -127
  -143
  -160
  -178
  -197
  -217
  -238
  -260
  -282
  -305
  -330
  -355
  -382
  -409
  -437
  -467
  -497
  -529
  -562
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Cash from operations, $m
  57
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -207
  -228
  -249
  -271
  -294
  -318
  -343
  -369
  -395
  -423
  -452
  -482
  -513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -134
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -207
  -228
  -249
  -271
  -294
  -318
  -343
  -369
  -395
  -423
  -452
  -482
  -513
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  134
  326
  376
  433
  491
  550
  609
  667
  725
  781
  836
  890
  943
  994
  1,045
  1,095
  1,145
  1,195
  1,245
  1,296
  1,347
  1,401
  1,456
  1,513
  1,572
  1,634
  1,699
  1,767
  1,839
  1,914
  1,994
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  177
  168
  196
  228
  262
  297
  333
  370
  407
  445
  484
  523
  563
  603
  643
  684
  726
  769
  813
  858
  905
  953
  1,002
  1,054
  1,108
  1,164
  1,222
  1,283
  1,347
  1,414
  1,484
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  163
  494
  572
  661
  753
  847
  942
  1,037
  1,132
  1,226
  1,320
  1,413
  1,506
  1,597
  1,688
  1,779
  1,871
  1,964
  2,058
  2,154
  2,252
  2,354
  2,458
  2,567
  2,680
  2,798
  2,921
  3,050
  3,186
  3,328
  3,478
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  485
  559
  643
  730
  817
  905
  992
  1,077
  1,161
  1,243
  1,323
  1,402
  1,478
  1,554
  1,628
  1,702
  1,776
  1,850
  1,926
  2,003
  2,082
  2,164
  2,249
  2,337
  2,429
  2,526
  2,627
  2,734
  2,846
  2,964
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -143
  -168
  -196
  -228
  -262
  -297
  -333
  -370
  -407
  -445
  -484
  -523
  -563
  -603
  -643
  -684
  -726
  -769
  -813
  -858
  -905
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,054
  -1,108
  -1,164
  -1,222
  -1,283
  -1,347
  -1,414
  -1,484
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  345
  363
  416
  468
  521
  572
  622
  670
  716
  759
  800
  839
  876
  911
  944
  976
  1,007
  1,038
  1,068
  1,099
  1,130
  1,162
  1,195
  1,229
  1,265
  1,304
  1,344
  1,387
  1,432
  1,481
Discount rate, %
 
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  313
  296
  302
  300
  290
  275
  254
  229
  202
  175
  148
  122
  98
  78
  60
  45
  33
  24
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.8
  77.9
  69.7
  62.8
  56.9
  51.9
  47.6
  43.8
  40.6
  37.7
  35.1
  32.8
  30.8
  28.9
  27.3
  25.7
  24.4
  23.1
  21.9
  20.8
  19.8
  18.9
  18.0
  17.2
  16.4
  15.7
  15.0
  14.4
  13.7
  13.2

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. makes debt and equity investments in sustainable infrastructure, including energy efficiency and renewable energy. The Company focuses on providing preferred or senior level capital to sponsors and obligors for assets that generate long-term, recurring and predictable cash flows. The Company focuses its investment activities primarily on Energy Efficiency Projects, which include projects typically undertaken by energy service companies, which reduce a building's or facility's energy usage or cost by installing various building components, including heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, lighting, energy controls, roofs, windows, building shells, and/or combined heat and power systems, and Renewable Energy Projects, which include projects that deploy cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind to generate power production. It may also invest in other projects, such as water or communications infrastructure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct (HASI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.2
Price to Sales 13.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -56.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 170.8%
Total Debt to Equity 170.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.4%
EBITDA Margin 75.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.2%
Operating Margin 18.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 18.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 326.7%

HASI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HASI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HASI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for HASI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HASI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $11 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HASI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HASI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HASI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HASI is equal to -35.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $571 million for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.132 million for Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastruct at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Hannon Armstrong tops Street 2Q forecasts   [03:22AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Hannon Armstrong meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
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Financial statements of HASI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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