Intrinsic value of HCI Group - HCI

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$45.39

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$45.39

 
Intrinsic value

$155.92

 
Up/down potential

+244%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HCI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.25
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  0
  298
  330
  364
  399
  436
  475
  515
  557
  600
  645
  692
  741
  792
  844
  899
  956
  1,015
  1,077
  1,141
  1,209
  1,279
  1,352
  1,428
  1,507
  1,591
  1,678
  1,768
  1,864
  1,963
  2,067
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  178
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  308
  334
  360
  387
  415
  444
  474
  506
  539
  573
  608
  645
  684
  724
  766
  810
  855
  903
  953
  1,005
  1,059
  1,116
  1,176
  1,238
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  209
  178
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  308
  334
  360
  387
  415
  444
  474
  506
  539
  573
  608
  645
  684
  724
  766
  810
  855
  903
  953
  1,005
  1,059
  1,116
  1,176
  1,238
Operating income, $m
  58
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  190
  207
  223
  241
  259
  278
  297
  317
  339
  361
  383
  407
  432
  458
  485
  513
  542
  573
  604
  638
  673
  709
  747
  787
  829
EBITDA, $m
  63
  122
  136
  150
  164
  179
  195
  212
  229
  247
  265
  285
  305
  326
  347
  370
  393
  418
  443
  470
  497
  526
  556
  587
  620
  654
  690
  728
  767
  808
  850
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  112
  123
  133
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  209
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  305
  324
  343
  363
  383
  405
  427
  451
  475
  501
  528
  556
  585
  616
  648
  681
Tax expense, $m
  18
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Net income, $m
  29
  82
  89
  97
  106
  114
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  385
  406
  427
  449
  473
  497

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  670
  746
  827
  912
  1,001
  1,094
  1,190
  1,291
  1,395
  1,504
  1,617
  1,735
  1,857
  1,984
  2,116
  2,253
  2,396
  2,545
  2,699
  2,861
  3,029
  3,204
  3,387
  3,578
  3,778
  3,986
  4,204
  4,432
  4,671
  4,920
  5,181
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  670
  746
  827
  912
  1,001
  1,094
  1,190
  1,291
  1,395
  1,504
  1,617
  1,735
  1,857
  1,984
  2,116
  2,253
  2,396
  2,545
  2,699
  2,861
  3,029
  3,204
  3,387
  3,578
  3,778
  3,986
  4,204
  4,432
  4,671
  4,920
  5,181
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
Average production assets, $m
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  139
  188
  239
  293
  350
  408
  470
  534
  601
  670
  742
  816
  894
  975
  1,059
  1,146
  1,237
  1,331
  1,430
  1,532
  1,639
  1,751
  1,867
  1,989
  2,116
  2,248
  2,387
  2,532
  2,683
  2,842
  3,008
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  475
  526
  580
  637
  695
  757
  821
  888
  957
  1,029
  1,103
  1,181
  1,262
  1,346
  1,433
  1,524
  1,618
  1,717
  1,819
  1,926
  2,038
  2,154
  2,276
  2,403
  2,535
  2,674
  2,819
  2,970
  3,129
  3,295
Total equity, $m
  244
  272
  301
  332
  364
  398
  433
  470
  508
  548
  589
  631
  676
  722
  770
  820
  872
  926
  983
  1,041
  1,103
  1,166
  1,233
  1,303
  1,375
  1,451
  1,530
  1,613
  1,700
  1,791
  1,886
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  670
  747
  827
  912
  1,001
  1,093
  1,190
  1,291
  1,396
  1,505
  1,618
  1,734
  1,857
  1,984
  2,116
  2,253
  2,396
  2,544
  2,700
  2,860
  3,029
  3,204
  3,387
  3,579
  3,778
  3,986
  4,204
  4,432
  4,670
  4,920
  5,181
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.570
  0.690
  0.790
  0.880
  0.960
  1.030
  1.080
  1.140
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.370
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  82
  89
  97
  106
  114
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  385
  406
  427
  449
  473
  497
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  88
  87
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
  519
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  83
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  382
  402
  423
  445
  469
  493
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  103
  107
  112
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  103
  107
  112
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  131
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  195
  208
  220
  234
  247
  262
  276
  292
  308
  325
  342
  361
  380
  400
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
  541
  568
  597
  627
  659
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  104
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  98
  98
  99
  99
  99
  97
  95
  91
  87
  82
  77
  71
  65
  58
  52
  45
  39
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

HCI Group, Inc. engages in the property and casualty insurance business in Florida. It provides property and casualty insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants; and reinsurance. The company also leases office properties and retail shopping centers; and owns and operates one full-service restaurant and two marinas. In addition, it offers designs and develops Web-based applications and products for mobile devices. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HCI Group (HCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.1
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 57%
Total Debt to Equity 57%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 12%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 22.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 41.4%

HCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HCI Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of HCI Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for HCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HCI Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HCI Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for HCI Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HCI Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HCI are equal to 5.2%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HCI Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HCI is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $244 million for HCI Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.705 million for HCI Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HCI Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ HCI Group posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ HCI Group Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heres what happened when HCI Groups biggest shareholder bought more stock   [Apr-24-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HCI Group Terminates Shareholder Rights Plan   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q2 2017 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-19-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group to Redeem 8% Senior Notes Due 2020   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Sets Annual Shareholders' Meeting and Record Date   [Mar-13-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [Feb-24-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [08:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tampa insurer cuts bonus for CEO   [Jan-03-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Hurricanes leave their mark on Tampa Bays property insurers   [Nov-09-16 08:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q4 2016 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-17-16 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Homeowners Choice Issues Statement on Hurricane Matthew   [Oct-12-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Storm upside: Sarasota area manufacturer's stock price soars   [Oct-07-16 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Real Estate Division Acquires New Shopping Center   [Sep-15-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Homeowners Choice Issues Hurricane Hermine Update   [Sep-08-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Storms dampen the bottom line at property insurers   [May-05-16 07:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q2 2016 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-19-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of HCI Financial statements of HCI Annual reports of HCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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