Intrinsic value of HCI Group - HCI

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$45.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$45.75

 
Intrinsic value

$168.19

 
Up/down potential

+268%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HCI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.25
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  0
  305
  345
  387
  433
  480
  530
  582
  636
  693
  752
  814
  878
  944
  1,013
  1,085
  1,159
  1,237
  1,318
  1,401
  1,489
  1,580
  1,674
  1,773
  1,876
  1,983
  2,095
  2,213
  2,335
  2,463
  2,596
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  182
  207
  232
  259
  288
  317
  349
  381
  415
  451
  487
  526
  565
  607
  650
  694
  741
  789
  839
  892
  946
  1,003
  1,062
  1,124
  1,188
  1,255
  1,325
  1,399
  1,475
  1,555
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  209
  182
  207
  232
  259
  288
  317
  349
  381
  415
  451
  487
  526
  565
  607
  650
  694
  741
  789
  839
  892
  946
  1,003
  1,062
  1,124
  1,188
  1,255
  1,325
  1,399
  1,475
  1,555
Operating income, $m
  58
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  278
  302
  326
  352
  379
  406
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  597
  633
  671
  711
  752
  795
  840
  887
  936
  988
  1,041
EBITDA, $m
  63
  125
  142
  159
  178
  197
  218
  239
  262
  285
  309
  335
  361
  388
  417
  446
  477
  509
  542
  577
  612
  650
  689
  729
  772
  816
  862
  910
  961
  1,013
  1,068
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  10
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  47
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  179
  189
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  115
  128
  142
  156
  172
  188
  204
  222
  240
  259
  279
  299
  321
  343
  366
  390
  415
  441
  468
  496
  525
  555
  587
  620
  655
  691
  728
  768
  809
  852
Tax expense, $m
  18
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
Net income, $m
  29
  84
  93
  103
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  429
  453
  478
  504
  532
  561
  591
  622

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  670
  764
  864
  971
  1,084
  1,203
  1,328
  1,458
  1,595
  1,737
  1,885
  2,039
  2,199
  2,366
  2,539
  2,719
  2,906
  3,100
  3,302
  3,512
  3,731
  3,959
  4,196
  4,444
  4,702
  4,971
  5,252
  5,545
  5,852
  6,172
  6,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  670
  764
  864
  971
  1,084
  1,203
  1,328
  1,458
  1,595
  1,737
  1,885
  2,039
  2,199
  2,366
  2,539
  2,719
  2,906
  3,100
  3,302
  3,512
  3,731
  3,959
  4,196
  4,444
  4,702
  4,971
  5,252
  5,545
  5,852
  6,172
  6,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
  0.399
Average production assets, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  139
  199
  263
  331
  403
  478
  558
  641
  727
  818
  912
  1,010
  1,112
  1,218
  1,328
  1,442
  1,561
  1,685
  1,813
  1,947
  2,086
  2,231
  2,382
  2,539
  2,703
  2,874
  3,053
  3,240
  3,435
  3,639
  3,852
Total liabilities, $m
  426
  486
  550
  618
  690
  765
  845
  928
  1,014
  1,105
  1,199
  1,297
  1,399
  1,505
  1,615
  1,729
  1,848
  1,972
  2,100
  2,234
  2,373
  2,518
  2,669
  2,826
  2,990
  3,161
  3,340
  3,527
  3,722
  3,926
  4,139
Total equity, $m
  244
  278
  315
  353
  395
  438
  483
  531
  581
  632
  686
  742
  801
  861
  924
  990
  1,058
  1,128
  1,202
  1,278
  1,358
  1,441
  1,527
  1,617
  1,711
  1,809
  1,912
  2,018
  2,130
  2,247
  2,369
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  670
  764
  865
  971
  1,085
  1,203
  1,328
  1,459
  1,595
  1,737
  1,885
  2,039
  2,200
  2,366
  2,539
  2,719
  2,906
  3,100
  3,302
  3,512
  3,731
  3,959
  4,196
  4,443
  4,701
  4,970
  5,252
  5,545
  5,852
  6,173
  6,508
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.570
  0.710
  0.830
  0.940
  1.020
  1.090
  1.150
  1.210
  1.250
  1.290
  1.330
  1.360
  1.390
  1.410
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  84
  93
  103
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  341
  362
  383
  405
  429
  453
  478
  504
  532
  561
  591
  622
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  87
  97
  107
  119
  130
  142
  155
  169
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  278
  297
  316
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  447
  472
  499
  526
  555
  585
  616
  649
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  88
  89
  97
  107
  119
  130
  142
  155
  169
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  278
  297
  316
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  447
  472
  499
  526
  555
  585
  616
  649
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  84
  92
  102
  112
  123
  135
  147
  160
  173
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  264
  282
  300
  318
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  144
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  230
  246
  263
  281
  299
  318
  337
  358
  379
  400
  423
  447
  472
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
  645
  678
  714
  750
  789
  829
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  110
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  197
  212
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
  395
  418
  441
  466
  492
  519
  547
  576
  607
  639
  672
  708
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  106
  109
  111
  111
  111
  109
  106
  102
  97
  91
  85
  78
  71
  63
  55
  48
  41
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

HCI Group, Inc. engages in the property and casualty insurance business in Florida. It provides property and casualty insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants; and reinsurance. The company also leases office properties and retail shopping centers; and owns and operates one full-service restaurant and two marinas. In addition, it offers designs and develops Web-based applications and products for mobile devices. The company was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. and changed its name to HCI Group, Inc. in May 2013. HCI Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HCI Group (HCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.2
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 57%
Total Debt to Equity 57%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 12%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 22.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Operating Margin 21.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 41.4%

HCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HCI Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of HCI Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for HCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HCI Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HCI Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 59.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for HCI Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HCI Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HCI are equal to 5.2%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HCI Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HCI is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $244 million for HCI Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.427 million for HCI Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HCI Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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ERIE Erie Indemnity 123.05 122.08  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heres what happened when HCI Groups biggest shareholder bought more stock   [Apr-24-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HCI Group Terminates Shareholder Rights Plan   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q2 2017 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-19-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group to Redeem 8% Senior Notes Due 2020   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Sets Annual Shareholders' Meeting and Record Date   [Mar-13-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [Feb-24-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ UMs Florida stock index bests S&P 500   [08:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tampa insurer cuts bonus for CEO   [Jan-03-17 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Hurricanes leave their mark on Tampa Bays property insurers   [Nov-09-16 08:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q4 2016 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-17-16 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Homeowners Choice Issues Statement on Hurricane Matthew   [Oct-12-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Storm upside: Sarasota area manufacturer's stock price soars   [Oct-07-16 08:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Real Estate Division Acquires New Shopping Center   [Sep-15-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Homeowners Choice Issues Hurricane Hermine Update   [Sep-08-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Storms dampen the bottom line at property insurers   [May-05-16 07:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ HCI Group Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ HCI Group Declares Q2 2016 Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-19-16 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of HCI Financial statements of HCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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