Intrinsic value of Hawaiian Telcom Holdco - HCOM

Previous Close

$30.50

  Intrinsic Value

$6.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

  Value-price divergence*

-24%

Previous close

$30.50

 
Intrinsic value

$6.57

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-24%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HCOM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  393
  401
  410
  421
  432
  446
  460
  476
  493
  511
  530
  551
  574
  598
  623
  650
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  847
  887
  928
  972
  1,019
  1,067
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,289
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  382
  390
  400
  412
  424
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  523
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  703
  734
  768
  804
  841
  881
  923
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  374
  382
  390
  400
  412
  424
  438
  453
  469
  486
  505
  523
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
  703
  734
  768
  804
  841
  881
  923
  967
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,223
Operating income, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
EBITDA, $m
  109
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Tax expense, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  1
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  804
  803
  822
  843
  867
  893
  922
  953
  987
  1,024
  1,063
  1,105
  1,150
  1,198
  1,248
  1,302
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,551
  1,622
  1,698
  1,777
  1,860
  1,949
  2,041
  2,139
  2,242
  2,350
  2,464
  2,583
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  788
  803
  822
  843
  867
  893
  922
  953
  987
  1,024
  1,063
  1,105
  1,150
  1,198
  1,248
  1,302
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,551
  1,622
  1,698
  1,777
  1,860
  1,949
  2,041
  2,139
  2,242
  2,350
  2,464
  2,583
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.498
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
Average production assets, $m
  622
  634
  648
  665
  684
  704
  727
  752
  779
  808
  839
  872
  907
  945
  985
  1,027
  1,072
  1,120
  1,170
  1,224
  1,280
  1,339
  1,402
  1,468
  1,537
  1,610
  1,687
  1,769
  1,854
  1,944
  2,038
Working capital, $m
  -24
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
Total debt, $m
  285
  291
  303
  316
  331
  348
  366
  386
  407
  430
  455
  481
  509
  539
  571
  605
  641
  679
  719
  762
  806
  854
  904
  956
  1,012
  1,070
  1,131
  1,196
  1,264
  1,336
  1,411
Total liabilities, $m
  499
  505
  517
  530
  545
  562
  580
  600
  621
  644
  669
  695
  723
  753
  785
  819
  855
  893
  933
  976
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,478
  1,550
  1,625
Total equity, $m
  305
  298
  305
  313
  322
  331
  342
  354
  366
  380
  394
  410
  427
  444
  463
  483
  504
  527
  550
  575
  602
  630
  659
  690
  723
  757
  794
  832
  872
  914
  958
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  804
  803
  822
  843
  867
  893
  922
  954
  987
  1,024
  1,063
  1,105
  1,150
  1,197
  1,248
  1,302
  1,359
  1,420
  1,483
  1,551
  1,622
  1,698
  1,777
  1,860
  1,949
  2,041
  2,139
  2,242
  2,350
  2,464
  2,583
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.934
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.367
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  90
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  91
  95
  99
  102
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  9
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  11
  15
  17
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  69
  72
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  114
  119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  13
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  98.5
  97.4
  96.1
  94.5
  92.8
  90.9
  88.9
  86.8
  84.6
  82.5
  80.3
  78.0
  75.8
  73.5
  71.1
  68.8
  66.5
  64.2
  62.0
  59.7
  57.5
  55.3
  53.2
  51.2
  49.1
  47.2
  45.3
  43.4
  41.6

Hawaiian Telcom Holdco, Inc. provides communications services and products to residential and business customers in Hawaii. The company operates through two segments, Telecommunications and Data Center Colocation. The Telecommunications segment provides local telephone services, including voice and data transport, custom calling features, network access, directory assistance, and private lines; and high-speed Internet, long distance, television, Internet protocol-based network, managed, billing and collection, wireless, and pay telephone services, as well as customer premises equipment and data solutions. As of December 31, 2015, this segment served approximately 320,000 local access lines; approximately 171,000 long distance lines; and approximately 113,000 high-speed Internet lines, including approximately 93,000 retail residential lines, 18,400 retail business lines, and 700 wholesale business and resale lines. The Data Center Colocation segment offers data center services, including colocation and virtual private cloud. The company has operations in the islands of Oahu, Maui, Hawaii, Kauai, Molokai, and Lanai. Hawaiian Telcom Holdco, Inc. was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hawaiian Telcom Holdco (HCOM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 351.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -43.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 92.5%
Total Debt to Equity 93.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.9%
EBITDA Margin 27%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

HCOM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HCOM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $393 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hawaiian Telcom Holdco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hawaiian Telcom Holdco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HCOM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for HCOM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hawaiian Telcom Holdco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hawaiian Telcom Holdco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HCOM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HCOM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Hawaiian Telcom Holdco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hawaiian Telcom Holdco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HCOM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HCOM are equal to 158.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hawaiian Telcom Holdco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HCOM is equal to -9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $305 million for Hawaiian Telcom Holdco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.153 million for Hawaiian Telcom Holdco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hawaiian Telcom Holdco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hawaiian Telcom Announces Completion of SEA-US Cable   [Aug-11-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 11:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom merges with Ohio-based company   [Jul-14-17 09:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Cincinnati Bell announces $851 million in mergers and acquisitions   [Jul-13-17 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Company News for July 11, 2017   [10:19AM  Zacks]
▶ Maui Land & Pineapple stock up triple digits as Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit new highs   [Jun-01-17 07:51PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom reports 1Q loss   [06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom reports 4Q loss   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hawaii among top 10 states for high-speed internet, report says   [Dec-08-16 11:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom Unleashes 1 Gig Internet on Hawaii Island   [Nov-14-16 02:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom Celebrates Five Years of TV on Oahu   [Jul-05-16 03:57PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom CEO attributes Q1 earns to capital expenditures   [May-05-16 08:40PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Hawaiian Telcom University 2016 - "The Future of Digital"   [Apr-14-16 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of HCOM Financial statements of HCOM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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