Intrinsic value of Healthcare Services Group - HCSG

Previous Close

$51.65

  Intrinsic Value

$104.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+103%

  Value-price divergence*

+57%

Previous close

$51.65

 
Intrinsic value

$104.66

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HCSG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.77
  21.70
  20.03
  18.53
  17.17
  15.96
  14.86
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.72
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
Revenue, $m
  1,563
  1,902
  2,283
  2,706
  3,171
  3,677
  4,223
  4,809
  5,434
  6,096
  6,796
  7,531
  8,302
  9,109
  9,951
  10,829
  11,743
  12,693
  13,681
  14,708
  15,775
  16,885
  18,037
  19,236
  20,482
  21,779
  23,129
  24,535
  26,000
  27,528
  29,121
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,464
  1,756
  2,081
  2,437
  2,825
  3,245
  3,694
  4,173
  4,681
  5,218
  5,778
  6,369
  6,988
  7,634
  8,308
  9,009
  9,738
  10,496
  11,284
  12,103
  12,954
  13,838
  14,757
  15,714
  16,709
  17,744
  18,823
  19,947
  21,119
  22,341
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  254
  261
  267
  274
  281
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  334
  342
  350
  359
  368
  377
  387
  396
  406
  417
  427
  438
  449
  460
  471
  483
  495
  508
  520
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,445
  1,718
  2,017
  2,348
  2,711
  3,106
  3,533
  3,989
  4,475
  4,991
  5,535
  6,103
  6,703
  7,330
  7,984
  8,667
  9,377
  10,115
  10,883
  11,680
  12,509
  13,371
  14,265
  15,195
  16,163
  17,169
  18,215
  19,306
  20,442
  21,627
  22,861
Operating income, $m
  118
  184
  267
  359
  460
  571
  691
  820
  959
  1,105
  1,260
  1,428
  1,599
  1,779
  1,966
  2,162
  2,366
  2,578
  2,798
  3,028
  3,266
  3,514
  3,772
  4,041
  4,320
  4,611
  4,914
  5,229
  5,558
  5,901
  6,260
EBITDA, $m
  126
  192
  276
  368
  471
  583
  704
  834
  974
  1,122
  1,278
  1,443
  1,616
  1,797
  1,986
  2,183
  2,389
  2,603
  2,825
  3,057
  3,298
  3,548
  3,808
  4,079
  4,361
  4,654
  4,959
  5,278
  5,610
  5,956
  6,317
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  184
  265
  356
  455
  564
  682
  809
  945
  1,089
  1,241
  1,406
  1,574
  1,750
  1,934
  2,126
  2,327
  2,535
  2,751
  2,977
  3,211
  3,454
  3,708
  3,971
  4,245
  4,531
  4,828
  5,138
  5,461
  5,798
  6,150
Tax expense, $m
  43
  50
  72
  96
  123
  152
  184
  219
  255
  294
  335
  380
  425
  473
  522
  574
  628
  684
  743
  804
  867
  933
  1,001
  1,072
  1,146
  1,223
  1,304
  1,387
  1,474
  1,565
  1,660
Net income, $m
  77
  135
  194
  260
  332
  412
  498
  591
  690
  795
  906
  1,026
  1,149
  1,278
  1,412
  1,552
  1,698
  1,850
  2,008
  2,173
  2,344
  2,522
  2,707
  2,899
  3,099
  3,307
  3,525
  3,751
  3,987
  4,233
  4,489

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  528
  531
  637
  755
  885
  1,026
  1,178
  1,342
  1,516
  1,701
  1,896
  2,101
  2,316
  2,541
  2,776
  3,021
  3,275
  3,541
  3,816
  4,103
  4,400
  4,710
  5,031
  5,366
  5,713
  6,075
  6,452
  6,844
  7,253
  7,679
  8,123
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  436
  531
  637
  755
  885
  1,026
  1,178
  1,342
  1,516
  1,701
  1,896
  2,101
  2,316
  2,541
  2,776
  3,021
  3,275
  3,541
  3,816
  4,103
  4,400
  4,710
  5,031
  5,366
  5,713
  6,075
  6,452
  6,844
  7,253
  7,679
  8,123
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.585
  3.582
  3.584
  3.584
  3.583
  3.584
  3.585
  3.583
  3.584
  3.584
  3.584
  3.584
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.586
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
  3.585
Average production assets, $m
  29
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  110
  122
  136
  149
  164
  179
  195
  211
  228
  246
  265
  284
  304
  325
  346
  369
  392
  416
  442
  468
  495
  524
Working capital, $m
  314
  270
  324
  384
  450
  522
  600
  683
  772
  866
  965
  1,069
  1,179
  1,293
  1,413
  1,538
  1,667
  1,802
  1,943
  2,089
  2,240
  2,398
  2,561
  2,731
  2,908
  3,093
  3,284
  3,484
  3,692
  3,909
  4,135
Total debt, $m
  0
  41
  87
  138
  194
  255
  321
  392
  467
  547
  632
  721
  814
  911
  1,013
  1,119
  1,229
  1,344
  1,463
  1,587
  1,716
  1,850
  1,990
  2,134
  2,285
  2,442
  2,605
  2,774
  2,951
  3,136
  3,328
Total liabilities, $m
  190
  230
  276
  327
  383
  444
  510
  581
  656
  736
  821
  910
  1,003
  1,100
  1,202
  1,308
  1,418
  1,533
  1,652
  1,776
  1,905
  2,039
  2,179
  2,323
  2,474
  2,631
  2,794
  2,963
  3,140
  3,325
  3,517
Total equity, $m
  339
  301
  361
  428
  502
  582
  668
  761
  859
  964
  1,075
  1,191
  1,313
  1,441
  1,574
  1,713
  1,857
  2,008
  2,164
  2,326
  2,495
  2,670
  2,853
  3,042
  3,239
  3,445
  3,658
  3,880
  4,112
  4,354
  4,606
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  529
  531
  637
  755
  885
  1,026
  1,178
  1,342
  1,515
  1,700
  1,896
  2,101
  2,316
  2,541
  2,776
  3,021
  3,275
  3,541
  3,816
  4,102
  4,400
  4,709
  5,032
  5,365
  5,713
  6,076
  6,452
  6,843
  7,252
  7,679
  8,123
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.140
  0.240
  0.320
  0.390
  0.440
  0.480
  0.520
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  135
  194
  260
  332
  412
  498
  591
  690
  795
  906
  1,026
  1,149
  1,278
  1,412
  1,552
  1,698
  1,850
  2,008
  2,173
  2,344
  2,522
  2,707
  2,899
  3,099
  3,307
  3,525
  3,751
  3,987
  4,233
  4,489
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  143
  202
  269
  343
  424
  511
  605
  705
  811
  924
  1,041
  1,166
  1,296
  1,432
  1,574
  1,722
  1,875
  2,036
  2,202
  2,375
  2,555
  2,742
  2,937
  3,140
  3,351
  3,570
  3,799
  4,038
  4,287
  4,547
Change in working capital, $m
  -53
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  83
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  95
  148
  209
  277
  352
  433
  521
  616
  717
  825
  937
  1,056
  1,181
  1,312
  1,449
  1,592
  1,741
  1,895
  2,056
  2,224
  2,398
  2,579
  2,767
  2,963
  3,166
  3,379
  3,600
  3,830
  4,070
  4,321
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  35
  86
  138
  197
  263
  336
  416
  503
  595
  695
  800
  910
  1,027
  1,150
  1,279
  1,414
  1,554
  1,700
  1,852
  2,011
  2,175
  2,346
  2,524
  2,710
  2,902
  3,103
  3,311
  3,529
  3,755
  3,991
  4,238
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  44
  126
  184
  248
  319
  397
  482
  573
  671
  775
  884
  999
  1,120
  1,248
  1,381
  1,520
  1,664
  1,815
  1,972
  2,135
  2,304
  2,480
  2,664
  2,854
  3,053
  3,259
  3,474
  3,698
  3,932
  4,176
  4,430
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  165
  124
  181
  246
  317
  396
  481
  572
  670
  774
  883
  998
  1,120
  1,248
  1,381
  1,520
  1,665
  1,815
  1,972
  2,135
  2,305
  2,481
  2,665
  2,856
  3,054
  3,261
  3,476
  3,700
  3,934
  4,178
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  158
  113
  158
  203
  246
  287
  325
  358
  385
  406
  419
  426
  426
  419
  405
  386
  362
  334
  304
  271
  238
  206
  175
  145
  119
  95
  75
  57
  43
  31
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. provides management, administrative and operating services to the housekeeping, laundry, linen, facility maintenance and dietary service departments of the healthcare industry, including nursing homes, retirement complexes, rehabilitation centers and hospitals located throughout the United States. The Company operates through two segments: housekeeping, laundry, linen and other services (Housekeeping), and dietary department services (Dietary). Its housekeeping service involves the management of a client's housekeeping department, which is responsible for the cleaning, disinfecting and sanitizing resident rooms and common areas of a client's facility. Its dietary services consist of managing the client's dietary department, which is responsible for food purchasing, meal preparation and providing professional dietitian services, including the development of menus that meet the dietary needs of residents.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 48.7
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 11.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 91.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 104.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 121
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Total Capital 24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Return On Equity 24.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.2%
Payout Ratio 68.8%

HCSG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HCSG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1563 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Healthcare Services Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Healthcare Services Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HCSG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HCSG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Healthcare Services Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Healthcare Services Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HCSG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $248 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HCSG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Healthcare Services Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Healthcare Services Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HCSG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HCSG are equal to 1.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Healthcare Services Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HCSG is equal to 14.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $339 million for Healthcare Services Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.013 million for Healthcare Services Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Healthcare Services Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Healthcare Services misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-17-17 04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for August 11th   [Aug-11-17 06:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Healthcare Services tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-11-17 09:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Analyzing Healthcare Services Group's Steady Charge   [Apr-24-17 04:47PM  Investopedia]
▶ Healthcare Services beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-11-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Healthcare Services meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-07-17 05:51PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HCSG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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