Intrinsic value of Hudson Technologies - HDSN

Previous Close

$8.60

  Intrinsic Value

$33.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+284%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$8.60

 
Intrinsic value

$33.02

 
Up/down potential

+284%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HDSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.25
  39.30
  35.87
  32.78
  30.00
  27.50
  25.25
  23.23
  21.41
  19.77
  18.29
  16.96
  15.76
  14.69
  13.72
  12.85
  12.06
  11.36
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.80
  6.62
Revenue, $m
  105
  146
  199
  264
  343
  437
  548
  675
  820
  982
  1,161
  1,358
  1,572
  1,803
  2,050
  2,314
  2,593
  2,887
  3,197
  3,521
  3,861
  4,215
  4,584
  4,968
  5,367
  5,782
  6,214
  6,662
  7,128
  7,613
  8,116
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  88
  119
  158
  206
  262
  328
  405
  491
  588
  696
  814
  942
  1,080
  1,228
  1,386
  1,553
  1,730
  1,915
  2,110
  2,313
  2,525
  2,746
  2,976
  3,215
  3,464
  3,722
  3,991
  4,270
  4,560
  4,862
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
Total operating expenses, $m
  87
  114
  145
  185
  234
  290
  357
  435
  521
  619
  728
  847
  976
  1,114
  1,263
  1,422
  1,590
  1,768
  1,954
  2,150
  2,354
  2,567
  2,789
  3,020
  3,260
  3,510
  3,770
  4,040
  4,320
  4,611
  4,914
Operating income, $m
  19
  33
  53
  79
  110
  147
  191
  241
  298
  362
  433
  512
  597
  689
  787
  892
  1,003
  1,120
  1,243
  1,372
  1,507
  1,648
  1,795
  1,948
  2,107
  2,272
  2,444
  2,623
  2,808
  3,001
  3,202
EBITDA, $m
  21
  35
  56
  82
  114
  152
  196
  248
  307
  373
  446
  526
  613
  707
  808
  916
  1,030
  1,150
  1,276
  1,409
  1,548
  1,692
  1,843
  2,000
  2,163
  2,333
  2,509
  2,692
  2,883
  3,081
  3,287
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  33
  53
  78
  109
  145
  188
  237
  294
  357
  427
  504
  587
  677
  774
  877
  986
  1,101
  1,222
  1,348
  1,481
  1,619
  1,763
  1,913
  2,070
  2,232
  2,401
  2,576
  2,758
  2,947
  3,144
Tax expense, $m
  6
  9
  14
  21
  29
  39
  51
  64
  79
  96
  115
  136
  159
  183
  209
  237
  266
  297
  330
  364
  400
  437
  476
  517
  559
  603
  648
  695
  745
  796
  849
Net income, $m
  11
  24
  39
  57
  79
  106
  137
  173
  214
  260
  312
  368
  429
  494
  565
  640
  720
  803
  892
  984
  1,081
  1,182
  1,287
  1,397
  1,511
  1,629
  1,752
  1,880
  2,013
  2,152
  2,295

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  122
  123
  167
  221
  288
  367
  459
  566
  687
  823
  973
  1,138
  1,318
  1,511
  1,719
  1,940
  2,174
  2,420
  2,680
  2,952
  3,236
  3,533
  3,842
  4,164
  4,499
  4,847
  5,209
  5,584
  5,975
  6,381
  6,803
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  88
  123
  167
  221
  288
  367
  459
  566
  687
  823
  973
  1,138
  1,318
  1,511
  1,719
  1,940
  2,174
  2,420
  2,680
  2,952
  3,236
  3,533
  3,842
  4,164
  4,499
  4,847
  5,209
  5,584
  5,975
  6,381
  6,803
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.193
  1.187
  1.192
  1.195
  1.191
  1.191
  1.194
  1.193
  1.194
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
  1.193
Average production assets, $m
  11
  15
  21
  28
  36
  46
  58
  71
  86
  103
  122
  143
  165
  189
  215
  243
  272
  303
  336
  370
  405
  443
  481
  522
  564
  607
  652
  700
  748
  799
  852
Working capital, $m
  98
  73
  99
  132
  172
  219
  274
  338
  410
  491
  581
  679
  786
  902
  1,025
  1,157
  1,297
  1,444
  1,599
  1,761
  1,930
  2,107
  2,292
  2,484
  2,684
  2,891
  3,107
  3,331
  3,564
  3,806
  4,058
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  9
  15
  23
  32
  42
  55
  68
  84
  101
  120
  140
  162
  186
  211
  238
  266
  295
  327
  359
  393
  428
  465
  503
  543
  584
  627
  671
  717
  766
Total liabilities, $m
  10
  14
  19
  25
  33
  42
  52
  65
  78
  94
  111
  130
  150
  172
  196
  221
  248
  276
  305
  337
  369
  403
  438
  475
  513
  553
  594
  637
  681
  727
  776
Total equity, $m
  112
  109
  148
  196
  255
  325
  407
  501
  609
  729
  862
  1,009
  1,168
  1,339
  1,523
  1,718
  1,926
  2,144
  2,374
  2,615
  2,867
  3,130
  3,404
  3,689
  3,986
  4,294
  4,615
  4,948
  5,294
  5,654
  6,028
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  122
  123
  167
  221
  288
  367
  459
  566
  687
  823
  973
  1,139
  1,318
  1,511
  1,719
  1,939
  2,174
  2,420
  2,679
  2,952
  3,236
  3,533
  3,842
  4,164
  4,499
  4,847
  5,209
  5,585
  5,975
  6,381
  6,804
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886
  0.886

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  24
  39
  57
  79
  106
  137
  173
  214
  260
  312
  368
  429
  494
  565
  640
  720
  803
  892
  984
  1,081
  1,182
  1,287
  1,397
  1,511
  1,629
  1,752
  1,880
  2,013
  2,152
  2,295
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  26
  41
  60
  83
  111
  143
  181
  223
  271
  324
  382
  445
  513
  586
  664
  747
  834
  925
  1,021
  1,122
  1,226
  1,335
  1,449
  1,567
  1,690
  1,818
  1,950
  2,088
  2,232
  2,381
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  21
  26
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  72
  81
  90
  98
  107
  115
  124
  132
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  5
  15
  27
  43
  63
  88
  117
  151
  190
  234
  283
  338
  398
  463
  533
  607
  687
  771
  859
  952
  1,049
  1,151
  1,257
  1,367
  1,482
  1,602
  1,726
  1,855
  1,989
  2,129
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -5
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  0
  8
  18
  32
  50
  72
  98
  129
  164
  205
  251
  301
  357
  418
  483
  554
  628
  708
  791
  879
  972
  1,068
  1,169
  1,273
  1,382
  1,496
  1,614
  1,736
  1,864
  1,996
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  51
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  11
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  10
  13
  25
  40
  59
  82
  110
  142
  180
  222
  269
  322
  379
  441
  509
  580
  657
  737
  822
  912
  1,005
  1,103
  1,205
  1,311
  1,422
  1,537
  1,657
  1,781
  1,910
  2,044
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -31
  -39
  -48
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -95
  -107
  -120
  -133
  -146
  -159
  -171
  -184
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  14
  -26
  -24
  -19
  -11
  0
  15
  35
  59
  89
  123
  163
  208
  258
  313
  373
  438
  507
  581
  660
  742
  829
  920
  1,015
  1,114
  1,217
  1,324
  1,435
  1,550
  1,670
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  13
  -24
  -21
  -16
  -9
  0
  10
  22
  34
  47
  58
  69
  79
  87
  92
  95
  95
  93
  90
  84
  77
  69
  60
  52
  43
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.3
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2
  97.2

Hudson Technologies Inc. operates as a refrigerant services company in the United States and internationally. The company sells reclaimed and virgin refrigerants, and industrial gases; and provides refrigerant management services, which primarily include reclamation of refrigerants and laboratory testing. It also separates crossed refrigerants; and provides re-usable cylinder refurbishment and hydrostatic testing services. In addition, the company provides RefrigerantSide services consisting of system decontamination to remove moisture, oils, and other contaminants, as well as refrigerant recovery and reclamation services. Further, it offers predictive and diagnostic services that are intended to predict potential problems in air conditioning and refrigeration systems under the Chiller Chemistry, Chill Smart, and Fluid Chemistry names; and SmartEnergy OPS service, a Web-based real time continuous monitoring service that identifies inefficiencies in the operation of air conditioning and refrigeration systems. Further, it participates in the generation of carbon offset projects. The company serves commercial, industrial, and governmental customers, as well as refrigerant wholesalers, distributors, contractors, and refrigeration equipment manufacturers; and customers in petrochemical, pharmaceutical, industrial power, manufacturing, commercial facility and property management, and maritime industries. Hudson Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Pearl River, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hudson Technologies (HDSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.4
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 50.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 31.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 11.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 13.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
EBITDA Margin 19%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 17.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 10.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Effective Tax Rate 35.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

HDSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HDSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hudson Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hudson Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HDSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HDSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hudson Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hudson Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HDSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $25 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HDSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8% for Hudson Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hudson Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HDSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HDSN are equal to 10.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hudson Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HDSN is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $112 million for Hudson Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.559 million for Hudson Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hudson Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Shares of Hudson Technologies, Inc. Popped 31% Today   [Aug-10-17 12:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hudson Tech tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-09-17 10:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hudson Tech beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hudson Tech reports 4Q loss   [Mar-01-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 10 Best Stocks in the Nasdaq in 2016   [Jan-15-17 07:42AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 4 stocks to watch   [Nov-08-16 12:51PM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of HDSN Financial statements of HDSN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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