Intrinsic value of Helen of Troy - HELE

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$94.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$94.65

 
Intrinsic value

$74.53

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HELE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.99
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,546
  1,577
  1,613
  1,655
  1,701
  1,753
  1,809
  1,871
  1,938
  2,010
  2,087
  2,169
  2,257
  2,351
  2,451
  2,556
  2,668
  2,787
  2,912
  3,045
  3,185
  3,332
  3,488
  3,652
  3,825
  4,007
  4,199
  4,401
  4,613
  4,836
  5,071
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,399
  1,430
  1,465
  1,505
  1,549
  1,597
  1,649
  1,706
  1,767
  1,833
  1,844
  1,919
  1,999
  2,084
  2,174
  2,269
  2,370
  2,476
  2,589
  2,708
  2,833
  2,966
  3,105
  3,252
  3,407
  3,570
  3,742
  3,922
  4,112
  4,312
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,415
  1,399
  1,430
  1,465
  1,505
  1,549
  1,597
  1,649
  1,706
  1,767
  1,833
  1,844
  1,919
  1,999
  2,084
  2,174
  2,269
  2,370
  2,476
  2,589
  2,708
  2,833
  2,966
  3,105
  3,252
  3,407
  3,570
  3,742
  3,922
  4,112
  4,312
Operating income, $m
  131
  178
  183
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  325
  338
  352
  367
  383
  399
  417
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  759
EBITDA, $m
  174
  257
  263
  270
  277
  286
  295
  305
  316
  327
  340
  353
  368
  383
  399
  416
  435
  454
  474
  496
  519
  543
  568
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  751
  788
  826
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  157
  162
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  214
  224
  293
  304
  317
  330
  343
  358
  374
  390
  407
  426
  445
  465
  487
  509
  533
  558
  584
  612
  641
  672
Tax expense, $m
  19
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
Net income, $m
  101
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
  447
  468
  490

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  226
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,849
  1,655
  1,693
  1,736
  1,785
  1,839
  1,899
  1,963
  2,033
  2,109
  2,190
  2,276
  2,369
  2,467
  2,571
  2,682
  2,800
  2,924
  3,056
  3,195
  3,342
  3,497
  3,660
  3,832
  4,014
  4,205
  4,406
  4,618
  4,840
  5,075
  5,321
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,623
  1,655
  1,693
  1,736
  1,785
  1,839
  1,899
  1,963
  2,033
  2,109
  2,190
  2,276
  2,369
  2,467
  2,571
  2,682
  2,800
  2,924
  3,056
  3,195
  3,342
  3,497
  3,660
  3,832
  4,014
  4,205
  4,406
  4,618
  4,840
  5,075
  5,321
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
Average production assets, $m
  510
  520
  532
  546
  561
  578
  597
  617
  639
  663
  689
  716
  745
  776
  809
  844
  881
  920
  961
  1,005
  1,051
  1,100
  1,151
  1,205
  1,262
  1,322
  1,386
  1,452
  1,522
  1,596
  1,674
Working capital, $m
  487
  290
  297
  304
  313
  323
  333
  344
  357
  370
  384
  399
  415
  433
  451
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  642
  672
  704
  737
  773
  810
  849
  890
  933
Total debt, $m
  620
  614
  635
  659
  686
  716
  749
  785
  823
  865
  910
  957
  1,008
  1,063
  1,120
  1,182
  1,247
  1,315
  1,388
  1,465
  1,546
  1,631
  1,721
  1,816
  1,917
  2,022
  2,133
  2,250
  2,373
  2,502
  2,638
Total liabilities, $m
  919
  913
  934
  958
  985
  1,015
  1,048
  1,084
  1,122
  1,164
  1,209
  1,256
  1,307
  1,362
  1,419
  1,481
  1,546
  1,614
  1,687
  1,764
  1,845
  1,930
  2,020
  2,115
  2,216
  2,321
  2,432
  2,549
  2,672
  2,801
  2,937
Total equity, $m
  930
  741
  758
  778
  800
  824
  851
  880
  911
  945
  981
  1,020
  1,061
  1,105
  1,152
  1,202
  1,254
  1,310
  1,369
  1,431
  1,497
  1,566
  1,640
  1,717
  1,798
  1,884
  1,974
  2,069
  2,169
  2,274
  2,384
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,849
  1,654
  1,692
  1,736
  1,785
  1,839
  1,899
  1,964
  2,033
  2,109
  2,190
  2,276
  2,368
  2,467
  2,571
  2,683
  2,800
  2,924
  3,056
  3,195
  3,342
  3,496
  3,660
  3,832
  4,014
  4,205
  4,406
  4,618
  4,841
  5,075
  5,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.667
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.434
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  101
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  261
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
  447
  468
  490
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  79
  80
  80
  81
  81
  82
  83
  84
  85
  86
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Funds from operations, $m
  193
  194
  198
  202
  207
  213
  219
  226
  233
  241
  249
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Cash from operations, $m
  185
  182
  191
  195
  199
  203
  209
  214
  221
  228
  235
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  313
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  491
  514
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
Free cash flow, $m
  121
  151
  158
  160
  162
  164
  167
  170
  174
  178
  183
  173
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  203
  17
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  92
  17
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  214
  169
  179
  184
  188
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  220
  229
  239
  248
  259
  270
  282
  295
  308
  322
  336
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  509
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  203
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  357
  162
  164
  167
  170
  173
  177
  181
  186
  191
  182
  188
  194
  202
  209
  218
  226
  236
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  341
  147
  140
  134
  127
  120
  113
  106
  99
  92
  78
  71
  65
  59
  52
  46
  40
  35
  30
  25
  20
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Helen of Troy Limited designs, develops, imports, markets, and distributes a portfolio of consumer products worldwide. The company’s Housewares segment offers food preparation tools and gadgets, food storage containers, baking tools, bakeware, barware, salt and pepper grinders and mills, hydration products, and storage and organization products; household cleaning products, laundry and bathroom accessories, and gardening tools; and feeding and drinking products, cleaning tools, nursery accessories, and child seating products for infants and toddlers. Its Healthcare/Home segment provides thermometers, blood pressure monitors, humidifiers, heating pads, and hot/cold wraps; faucet mount and pitcher based water filtration systems; and air purifiers, heaters, fans, humidifiers, dehumidifiers, and insect control devices. The company’s Nutritional Supplements segment offers heart and digestive health supplements, multi-vitamins, joint health supplements, blood sugar support and sleep health supplements, topical skin care products and safe beauty products, brain health supplements, vision health supplements, and topical analgesics products. Its Beauty segment provides curling and straightening irons, hot air brushes, hand-held dryers, hard and soft-bonnet hair dryers, hair setters, facial/skin care appliances, foot care appliances, hair clippers and trimmers, mirrors, hair brushes, hair styling implements, decorative hair accessories, liquid hair styling products, treatments, conditioners, shampoos, liquid and/or medicated skin care products, fragrances, deodorants, and antiperspirants. The company sells its products through mass merchandisers, drugstore chains, warehouse clubs, home improvement stores, catalogs, grocery stores, specialty stores, beauty supply retailers, e-commerce retailers, wholesalers, and various types of distributors, as well as directly to consumers. Helen of Troy Limited was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in El Paso, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Helen of Troy (HELE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 64.2%
Total Debt to Equity 66.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.6%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 15.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

HELE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HELE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1546 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Helen of Troy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Helen of Troy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HELE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for HELE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Helen of Troy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Helen of Troy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HELE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HELE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Helen of Troy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Helen of Troy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HELE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HELE are equal to 33%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Helen of Troy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HELE is equal to 18.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $930 million for Helen of Troy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.964 million for Helen of Troy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Helen of Troy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.


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