Intrinsic value of Helen of Troy - HELE

Previous Close

$90.35

  Intrinsic Value

$50.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$90.35

 
Intrinsic value

$50.48

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HELE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.58
  2.70
  2.93
  3.14
  3.32
  3.49
  3.64
  3.78
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  1,537
  1,578
  1,625
  1,676
  1,731
  1,792
  1,857
  1,927
  2,002
  2,083
  2,168
  2,259
  2,356
  2,458
  2,567
  2,682
  2,803
  2,931
  3,067
  3,210
  3,360
  3,519
  3,686
  3,862
  4,047
  4,242
  4,447
  4,663
  4,890
  5,128
  5,379
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,442
  1,483
  1,527
  1,575
  1,628
  1,685
  1,746
  1,811
  1,881
  1,955
  1,965
  2,049
  2,138
  2,232
  2,332
  2,438
  2,549
  2,667
  2,791
  2,922
  3,060
  3,205
  3,358
  3,519
  3,688
  3,867
  4,054
  4,252
  4,459
  4,677
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,373
  1,442
  1,483
  1,527
  1,575
  1,628
  1,685
  1,746
  1,811
  1,881
  1,955
  1,965
  2,049
  2,138
  2,232
  2,332
  2,438
  2,549
  2,667
  2,791
  2,922
  3,060
  3,205
  3,358
  3,519
  3,688
  3,867
  4,054
  4,252
  4,459
  4,677
Operating income, $m
  164
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  182
  191
  202
  213
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  366
  382
  400
  419
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
  669
  702
EBITDA, $m
  208
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  421
  440
  460
  482
  505
  529
  554
  581
  608
  638
  669
  701
  736
  772
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  150
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
  344
  360
  376
  393
  411
  430
  450
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
  594
  623
Tax expense, $m
  9
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
Net income, $m
  141
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,813
  1,838
  1,891
  1,951
  2,016
  2,086
  2,162
  2,244
  2,331
  2,425
  2,524
  2,630
  2,743
  2,862
  2,988
  3,122
  3,263
  3,413
  3,570
  3,736
  3,912
  4,096
  4,291
  4,496
  4,711
  4,938
  5,177
  5,428
  5,692
  5,970
  6,262
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,790
  1,838
  1,891
  1,951
  2,016
  2,086
  2,162
  2,244
  2,331
  2,425
  2,524
  2,630
  2,743
  2,862
  2,988
  3,122
  3,263
  3,413
  3,570
  3,736
  3,912
  4,096
  4,291
  4,496
  4,711
  4,938
  5,177
  5,428
  5,692
  5,970
  6,262
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
Average production assets, $m
  530
  545
  561
  578
  597
  618
  641
  665
  691
  719
  748
  779
  813
  848
  886
  925
  967
  1,011
  1,058
  1,107
  1,159
  1,214
  1,272
  1,332
  1,396
  1,463
  1,534
  1,609
  1,687
  1,769
  1,856
Working capital, $m
  267
  275
  283
  292
  301
  312
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  410
  428
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  558
  585
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
  811
  851
  892
  936
Total debt, $m
  486
  484
  507
  533
  561
  591
  624
  659
  696
  737
  779
  825
  873
  925
  979
  1,036
  1,097
  1,161
  1,229
  1,301
  1,376
  1,455
  1,539
  1,627
  1,720
  1,817
  1,920
  2,028
  2,142
  2,261
  2,387
Total liabilities, $m
  792
  790
  813
  839
  867
  897
  930
  965
  1,002
  1,043
  1,085
  1,131
  1,179
  1,231
  1,285
  1,342
  1,403
  1,467
  1,535
  1,607
  1,682
  1,761
  1,845
  1,933
  2,026
  2,123
  2,226
  2,334
  2,448
  2,567
  2,693
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,047
  1,078
  1,112
  1,149
  1,189
  1,232
  1,279
  1,329
  1,382
  1,439
  1,499
  1,563
  1,631
  1,703
  1,780
  1,860
  1,945
  2,035
  2,130
  2,230
  2,335
  2,446
  2,562
  2,685
  2,815
  2,951
  3,094
  3,245
  3,403
  3,569
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,813
  1,837
  1,891
  1,951
  2,016
  2,086
  2,162
  2,244
  2,331
  2,425
  2,524
  2,630
  2,742
  2,862
  2,988
  3,122
  3,263
  3,412
  3,570
  3,737
  3,912
  4,096
  4,291
  4,495
  4,711
  4,938
  5,177
  5,428
  5,693
  5,970
  6,262
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.476
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.558
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  141
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  90
  91
  92
  92
  93
  94
  95
  96
  97
  98
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  70
Funds from operations, $m
  248
  178
  182
  187
  193
  198
  205
  212
  219
  226
  235
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  302
  316
  330
  346
  362
  379
  396
  415
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  229
  171
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  199
  206
  212
  220
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -230
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -154
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  136
  138
  140
  142
  145
  148
  151
  155
  159
  163
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -133
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -201
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -203
  157
  161
  165
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  432
  453
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -26
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  131
  130
  131
  133
  135
  137
  140
  142
  146
  149
  134
  139
  143
  148
  154
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
Discount rate, %
 
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  125
  117
  112
  106
  100
  94
  88
  82
  76
  70
  56
  51
  46
  41
  36
  32
  27
  23
  20
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Helen Of Troy Limited is a global consumer products company that offers a range of solutions for its customers through a range of brands. The Company is a global designer, developer, importer, marketer and distributor of a portfolio of brand-name consumer products. The Company has four segments. The Housewares segment provides a range of consumer products for the home. The Health & Home segment focuses on healthcare devices, such as thermometers, humidifiers, blood pressure monitors and heating pads; water filtration systems, and small home appliances, such as portable heaters, fans, air purifiers, and insect control devices. The Nutritional Supplements segment is a provider of branded vitamins, minerals and supplements, as well as other health products. The Beauty segment's products include electric hair care, beauty care and wellness appliances; grooming tools and accessories, and liquid-, solid- and powder-based personal care and grooming products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Helen of Troy (HELE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.3
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 47.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

HELE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HELE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1537 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Helen of Troy. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Helen of Troy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HELE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for HELE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Helen of Troy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Helen of Troy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HELE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HELE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Helen of Troy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Helen of Troy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HELE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HELE are equal to 34.5%.

Life of production assets of 26.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Helen of Troy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HELE is equal to 17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for Helen of Troy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.225 million for Helen of Troy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Helen of Troy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PUR Selects Brandgenuity to Drive Licensing Efforts   [Nov-06-17 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Helen of Troy posts 2Q profit   [Oct-05-17 04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 5 Best Earnings Charts This Week   [Oct-02-17 06:07PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Helen of Troy posts 1Q profit   [Jul-10-17 11:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:05AM  Briefing.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Helen of Troy posts 4Q profit   [Apr-27-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Want to Help Save the Environment? Drink Filtered Water!   [Apr-19-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insider Q&A: Hydro Flask CEO Scott Allan   [Feb-19-17 09:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [Feb-14-17 12:38PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [12:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of HELE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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