Intrinsic value of Helen of Troy - HELE

Previous Close

$93.55

  Intrinsic Value

$50.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

  Value-price divergence*

-46%

Previous close

$93.55

 
Intrinsic value

$50.64

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-46%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HELE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.58
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,537
  1,589
  1,646
  1,707
  1,772
  1,842
  1,917
  1,996
  2,081
  2,171
  2,266
  2,366
  2,473
  2,585
  2,704
  2,829
  2,962
  3,101
  3,248
  3,402
  3,565
  3,736
  3,917
  4,106
  4,306
  4,516
  4,736
  4,968
  5,212
  5,468
  5,737
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,452
  1,501
  1,554
  1,611
  1,672
  1,737
  1,806
  1,879
  1,957
  2,040
  2,058
  2,150
  2,248
  2,351
  2,460
  2,575
  2,696
  2,824
  2,958
  3,100
  3,249
  3,406
  3,571
  3,744
  3,926
  4,118
  4,320
  4,532
  4,755
  4,989
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,373
  1,452
  1,501
  1,554
  1,611
  1,672
  1,737
  1,806
  1,879
  1,957
  2,040
  2,058
  2,150
  2,248
  2,351
  2,460
  2,575
  2,696
  2,824
  2,958
  3,100
  3,249
  3,406
  3,571
  3,744
  3,926
  4,118
  4,320
  4,532
  4,755
  4,989
Operating income, $m
  164
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  226
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
  648
  680
  713
  749
EBITDA, $m
  208
  228
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  299
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
  648
  679
  713
  748
  784
  823
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
Earnings before tax, $m
  150
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  188
  198
  280
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
  501
  524
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
Tax expense, $m
  9
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  179
Net income, $m
  141
  89
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  137
  145
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,813
  1,850
  1,916
  1,987
  2,063
  2,145
  2,232
  2,324
  2,423
  2,527
  2,638
  2,755
  2,879
  3,010
  3,148
  3,294
  3,448
  3,610
  3,781
  3,961
  4,150
  4,350
  4,560
  4,780
  5,013
  5,257
  5,514
  5,784
  6,067
  6,366
  6,679
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,790
  1,850
  1,916
  1,987
  2,063
  2,145
  2,232
  2,324
  2,423
  2,527
  2,638
  2,755
  2,879
  3,010
  3,148
  3,294
  3,448
  3,610
  3,781
  3,961
  4,150
  4,350
  4,560
  4,780
  5,013
  5,257
  5,514
  5,784
  6,067
  6,366
  6,679
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
  0.859
Average production assets, $m
  530
  548
  568
  589
  611
  636
  661
  689
  718
  749
  782
  816
  853
  892
  933
  976
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,174
  1,230
  1,289
  1,351
  1,417
  1,485
  1,558
  1,634
  1,714
  1,798
  1,886
  1,979
Working capital, $m
  267
  277
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  347
  362
  378
  394
  412
  430
  450
  471
  492
  515
  540
  565
  592
  620
  650
  681
  714
  749
  786
  824
  864
  907
  951
  998
Total debt, $m
  486
  490
  518
  548
  581
  616
  654
  693
  736
  781
  828
  879
  932
  988
  1,048
  1,110
  1,177
  1,246
  1,320
  1,397
  1,479
  1,564
  1,655
  1,750
  1,849
  1,954
  2,065
  2,181
  2,303
  2,431
  2,566
Total liabilities, $m
  792
  796
  824
  854
  887
  922
  960
  999
  1,042
  1,087
  1,134
  1,185
  1,238
  1,294
  1,354
  1,416
  1,483
  1,552
  1,626
  1,703
  1,785
  1,870
  1,961
  2,056
  2,155
  2,260
  2,371
  2,487
  2,609
  2,737
  2,872
Total equity, $m
  1,021
  1,055
  1,092
  1,133
  1,176
  1,222
  1,272
  1,325
  1,381
  1,440
  1,504
  1,570
  1,641
  1,716
  1,794
  1,878
  1,965
  2,058
  2,155
  2,258
  2,366
  2,479
  2,599
  2,725
  2,857
  2,996
  3,143
  3,297
  3,458
  3,628
  3,807
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,813
  1,851
  1,916
  1,987
  2,063
  2,144
  2,232
  2,324
  2,423
  2,527
  2,638
  2,755
  2,879
  3,010
  3,148
  3,294
  3,448
  3,610
  3,781
  3,961
  4,151
  4,349
  4,560
  4,781
  5,012
  5,256
  5,514
  5,784
  6,067
  6,365
  6,679
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.476
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.558
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  141
  89
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  137
  145
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  91
  91
  92
  93
  94
  95
  96
  97
  98
  99
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
Funds from operations, $m
  248
  179
  184
  190
  197
  203
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  334
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
  508
  533
  559
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  229
  170
  175
  180
  185
  191
  198
  204
  212
  219
  228
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  445
  466
  488
  512
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -230
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  132
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  152
  157
  161
  167
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  231
  242
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -133
  27
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -201
  27
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -203
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  206
  214
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  439
  461
  483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -34
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  125
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  151
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  254
  265
  278
  291
  304
Discount rate, %
 
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  119
  113
  108
  103
  98
  93
  88
  82
  76
  71
  57
  52
  47
  42
  38
  33
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Helen Of Troy Limited is a global consumer products company that offers a range of solutions for its customers through a range of brands. The Company is a global designer, developer, importer, marketer and distributor of a portfolio of brand-name consumer products. The Company has four segments. The Housewares segment provides a range of consumer products for the home. The Health & Home segment focuses on healthcare devices, such as thermometers, humidifiers, blood pressure monitors and heating pads; water filtration systems, and small home appliances, such as portable heaters, fans, air purifiers, and insect control devices. The Nutritional Supplements segment is a provider of branded vitamins, minerals and supplements, as well as other health products. The Beauty segment's products include electric hair care, beauty care and wellness appliances; grooming tools and accessories, and liquid-, solid- and powder-based personal care and grooming products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Helen of Troy (HELE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.9
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 47.6%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 14.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Operating Margin 10.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

HELE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HELE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1537 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Helen of Troy. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Helen of Troy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HELE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for HELE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Helen of Troy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Helen of Troy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HELE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HELE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Helen of Troy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Helen of Troy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HELE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HELE are equal to 34.5%.

Life of production assets of 26.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Helen of Troy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HELE is equal to 17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1021 million for Helen of Troy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.072 million for Helen of Troy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Helen of Troy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Helen of Troy posts 1Q profit   [Jul-10-17 11:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:05AM  Briefing.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Helen of Troy Ltd. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Helen of Troy posts 4Q profit   [Apr-27-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Want to Help Save the Environment? Drink Filtered Water!   [Apr-19-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insider Q&A: Hydro Flask CEO Scott Allan   [Feb-19-17 09:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [Feb-14-17 12:38PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [12:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ After-hours buzz: GPS, AMGN, SHAK & more   [Jan-05-17 05:57PM  at CNBC]
▶ [$$] Helen of Troy Cuts Sales Guidance, Boosts Earnings   [05:36PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of HELE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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