Intrinsic value of Holly Energy Partners - HEP

Previous Close

$30.01

  Intrinsic Value

$16.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-44%

Previous close

$30.01

 
Intrinsic value

$16.75

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.98
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  402
  513
  576
  642
  711
  784
  860
  940
  1,023
  1,109
  1,199
  1,292
  1,390
  1,490
  1,595
  1,704
  1,818
  1,935
  2,058
  2,186
  2,318
  2,457
  2,601
  2,752
  2,909
  3,073
  3,244
  3,423
  3,610
  3,806
  4,011
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  233
  256
  281
  308
  335
  364
  394
  425
  458
  491
  487
  524
  562
  601
  642
  685
  729
  775
  823
  874
  926
  980
  1,037
  1,096
  1,158
  1,222
  1,290
  1,360
  1,434
  1,511
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  254
  278
  303
  331
  358
  388
  418
  450
  484
  517
  514
  551
  590
  629
  671
  715
  759
  806
  855
  906
  959
  1,014
  1,072
  1,131
  1,194
  1,259
  1,328
  1,399
  1,473
  1,551
Operating income, $m
  195
  259
  297
  338
  381
  426
  473
  522
  573
  626
  682
  779
  839
  901
  966
  1,033
  1,103
  1,176
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,587
  1,680
  1,777
  1,879
  1,985
  2,096
  2,211
  2,332
  2,459
EBITDA, $m
  265
  502
  566
  633
  703
  777
  855
  936
  1,020
  1,107
  1,199
  1,293
  1,392
  1,494
  1,601
  1,711
  1,827
  1,946
  2,071
  2,200
  2,335
  2,476
  2,623
  2,776
  2,936
  3,102
  3,276
  3,458
  3,649
  3,848
  4,056
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  81
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  186
  205
  225
  246
  267
  290
  313
  337
  362
  388
  415
  444
  473
  504
  536
  569
  603
  640
  677
  717
  758
  801
  846
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  177
  209
  236
  263
  292
  322
  354
  387
  421
  456
  533
  571
  611
  653
  696
  741
  787
  836
  887
  939
  994
  1,052
  1,112
  1,174
  1,239
  1,307
  1,379
  1,453
  1,531
  1,613
Tax expense, $m
  0
  48
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  104
  114
  123
  144
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  239
  254
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
Net income, $m
  148
  129
  153
  172
  192
  213
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  389
  417
  446
  477
  508
  541
  575
  610
  647
  686
  726
  768
  811
  857
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,061
  1,118
  1,177

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,884
  2,431
  2,728
  3,041
  3,371
  3,716
  4,077
  4,455
  4,848
  5,257
  5,683
  6,126
  6,586
  7,064
  7,561
  8,077
  8,614
  9,172
  9,753
  10,358
  10,988
  11,644
  12,328
  13,042
  13,786
  14,564
  15,375
  16,224
  17,110
  18,037
  19,007
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,880
  2,431
  2,728
  3,041
  3,371
  3,716
  4,077
  4,455
  4,848
  5,257
  5,683
  6,126
  6,586
  7,064
  7,561
  8,077
  8,614
  9,172
  9,753
  10,358
  10,988
  11,644
  12,328
  13,042
  13,786
  14,564
  15,375
  16,224
  17,110
  18,037
  19,007
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.214
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
Average production assets, $m
  1,381
  2,042
  2,291
  2,555
  2,831
  3,121
  3,425
  3,742
  4,072
  4,416
  4,774
  5,145
  5,532
  5,933
  6,351
  6,785
  7,236
  7,705
  8,193
  8,701
  9,230
  9,781
  10,356
  10,955
  11,580
  12,233
  12,915
  13,628
  14,372
  15,151
  15,966
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -197
Total debt, $m
  1,244
  1,626
  1,893
  2,175
  2,472
  2,783
  3,108
  3,447
  3,801
  4,170
  4,553
  4,951
  5,365
  5,796
  6,243
  6,707
  7,191
  7,693
  8,216
  8,760
  9,327
  9,918
  10,534
  11,176
  11,846
  12,545
  13,276
  14,039
  14,837
  15,672
  16,545
Total liabilities, $m
  1,506
  2,188
  2,455
  2,737
  3,034
  3,344
  3,670
  4,009
  4,363
  4,731
  5,115
  5,513
  5,927
  6,357
  6,804
  7,269
  7,752
  8,255
  8,778
  9,322
  9,889
  10,480
  11,095
  11,738
  12,408
  13,107
  13,838
  14,601
  15,399
  16,234
  17,107
Total equity, $m
  378
  243
  273
  304
  337
  372
  408
  445
  485
  526
  568
  613
  659
  706
  756
  808
  861
  917
  975
  1,036
  1,099
  1,164
  1,233
  1,304
  1,379
  1,456
  1,538
  1,622
  1,711
  1,804
  1,901
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,884
  2,431
  2,728
  3,041
  3,371
  3,716
  4,078
  4,454
  4,848
  5,257
  5,683
  6,126
  6,586
  7,063
  7,560
  8,077
  8,613
  9,172
  9,753
  10,358
  10,988
  11,644
  12,328
  13,042
  13,787
  14,563
  15,376
  16,223
  17,110
  18,038
  19,008
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.291
  6.690
  6.940
  7.150
  7.330
  7.490
  7.620
  7.740
  7.840
  7.930
  8.010
  8.080
  8.150
  8.200
  8.260
  8.300
  8.350
  8.390
  8.420
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.199
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  148
  129
  153
  172
  192
  213
  235
  258
  282
  307
  333
  389
  417
  446
  477
  508
  541
  575
  610
  647
  686
  726
  768
  811
  857
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,061
  1,118
  1,177
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  244
  269
  295
  323
  352
  382
  414
  447
  481
  517
  515
  553
  593
  635
  678
  724
  770
  819
  870
  923
  978
  1,036
  1,095
  1,158
  1,223
  1,292
  1,363
  1,437
  1,515
  1,597
Funds from operations, $m
  254
  373
  422
  467
  515
  565
  617
  672
  729
  788
  850
  904
  970
  1,040
  1,112
  1,186
  1,264
  1,345
  1,430
  1,517
  1,609
  1,704
  1,803
  1,907
  2,015
  2,128
  2,246
  2,369
  2,498
  2,633
  2,774
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  243
  376
  425
  470
  518
  569
  621
  676
  733
  793
  855
  908
  975
  1,045
  1,117
  1,192
  1,270
  1,351
  1,436
  1,524
  1,615
  1,711
  1,810
  1,914
  2,023
  2,136
  2,254
  2,378
  2,507
  2,643
  2,784
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -181
  -204
  -229
  -255
  -283
  -312
  -342
  -374
  -407
  -442
  -477
  -515
  -553
  -593
  -635
  -678
  -724
  -770
  -819
  -870
  -923
  -978
  -1,036
  -1,095
  -1,158
  -1,223
  -1,292
  -1,363
  -1,437
  -1,515
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -234
  -249
  -263
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -386
  -402
  -417
  -434
  -451
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -529
  -551
  -575
  -599
  -625
  -653
  -682
  -713
  -745
  -779
  -815
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -415
  -453
  -492
  -532
  -573
  -616
  -659
  -704
  -751
  -800
  -849
  -901
  -955
  -1,010
  -1,069
  -1,129
  -1,193
  -1,258
  -1,327
  -1,399
  -1,474
  -1,553
  -1,635
  -1,720
  -1,811
  -1,905
  -2,005
  -2,108
  -2,216
  -2,330
Free cash flow, $m
  100
  -38
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -5
  6
  17
  29
  42
  55
  59
  74
  90
  106
  123
  140
  158
  177
  196
  216
  237
  258
  279
  302
  325
  349
  374
  400
  426
  454
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  235
  119
  267
  282
  296
  311
  325
  339
  354
  368
  383
  398
  414
  430
  447
  465
  483
  503
  523
  544
  567
  591
  616
  642
  670
  700
  731
  763
  798
  834
  873
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  122
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  81
  148
  267
  282
  296
  311
  325
  339
  354
  368
  383
  398
  414
  430
  447
  465
  483
  503
  523
  544
  567
  591
  616
  642
  670
  700
  731
  763
  798
  834
  873
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  181
  109
  238
  260
  283
  306
  331
  356
  383
  410
  439
  457
  488
  520
  553
  588
  624
  661
  700
  741
  783
  827
  873
  922
  972
  1,025
  1,080
  1,137
  1,198
  1,261
  1,327
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  154
  -158
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -49
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  318
  343
  369
  396
  413
  442
  472
  504
  536
  570
  605
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  850
  897
  947
  999
  1,053
  1,109
  1,168
  1,230
Discount rate, %
 
  12.80
  13.44
  14.11
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.15
  18.01
  18.91
  19.86
  20.85
  21.89
  22.99
  24.14
  25.34
  26.61
  27.94
  29.34
  30.80
  32.34
  33.96
  35.66
  37.44
  39.32
  41.28
  43.35
  45.51
  47.79
  50.18
  52.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -43
  162
  154
  144
  132
  119
  105
  91
  78
  65
  51
  41
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7
  96.7

Holly Energy Partners, L.P., (HEP) is engaged in the business of operating a system of petroleum product and crude pipelines, storage tanks, distribution terminals, loading rack facilities and refinery processing units in West Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Idaho and Washington. The Company operates through segments, including pipelines and terminals segment and a refinery processing unit segment. As of December 31, 2016, its pipelines and terminals segment consisted of 24 main pipeline segments; Crude gathering networks in Texas and New Mexico; 10 refined product terminals; one crude terminal; 8,300 track feet of rail storage located at one facility; seven locations with truck and/or rail racks, and Tankage at all six of HollyFrontier Corporation's (HFC's) refining facility locations. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's refinery processing unit segment consisted of five refinery processing units at two of HFC's refining facility locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Holly Energy Partners (HEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.7
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 53.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 329.1%
Total Debt to Equity 329.1%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 32.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 66.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.1%
Operating Margin 48.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Net Profit Margin 36.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 129.7%

HEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $454 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Holly Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Holly Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.8%, whose default value for HEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Holly Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Holly Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Holly Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Holly Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HEP stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HEP are equal to 398.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Holly Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HEP is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $85 million for Holly Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70 million for Holly Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Holly Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Financial statements of HEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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