Intrinsic value of Holly Energy Partners - HEP

Previous Close

$30.22

  Intrinsic Value

$24.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$30.22

 
Intrinsic value

$24.68

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of HEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.98
  18.30
  16.97
  15.77
  14.70
  13.73
  12.85
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.17
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
Revenue, $m
  402
  476
  556
  644
  739
  840
  948
  1,062
  1,183
  1,310
  1,443
  1,582
  1,727
  1,878
  2,036
  2,200
  2,370
  2,547
  2,731
  2,922
  3,120
  3,327
  3,541
  3,765
  3,997
  4,240
  4,492
  4,755
  5,030
  5,316
  5,616
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  235
  271
  310
  351
  396
  444
  494
  548
  604
  662
  698
  762
  829
  898
  970
  1,045
  1,123
  1,204
  1,289
  1,376
  1,467
  1,562
  1,661
  1,763
  1,870
  1,981
  2,097
  2,219
  2,345
  2,477
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  207
  235
  271
  310
  351
  396
  444
  494
  548
  604
  662
  698
  762
  829
  898
  970
  1,045
  1,123
  1,204
  1,289
  1,376
  1,467
  1,562
  1,661
  1,763
  1,870
  1,981
  2,097
  2,219
  2,345
  2,477
Operating income, $m
  195
  240
  285
  334
  387
  444
  504
  568
  636
  707
  781
  884
  965
  1,050
  1,138
  1,229
  1,325
  1,423
  1,526
  1,633
  1,744
  1,859
  1,979
  2,104
  2,234
  2,370
  2,511
  2,658
  2,811
  2,972
  3,139
EBITDA, $m
  265
  336
  393
  454
  521
  593
  669
  750
  835
  925
  1,018
  1,117
  1,219
  1,326
  1,437
  1,552
  1,672
  1,797
  1,927
  2,062
  2,202
  2,348
  2,499
  2,657
  2,821
  2,992
  3,170
  3,356
  3,550
  3,752
  3,963
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  44
  53
  64
  75
  88
  101
  115
  130
  146
  162
  180
  198
  217
  237
  258
  279
  301
  324
  349
  374
  400
  427
  455
  484
  515
  546
  579
  614
  650
  687
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  197
  232
  271
  312
  356
  403
  453
  506
  561
  618
  704
  767
  833
  901
  972
  1,046
  1,122
  1,202
  1,284
  1,370
  1,460
  1,553
  1,650
  1,750
  1,855
  1,965
  2,079
  2,198
  2,322
  2,451
Tax expense, $m
  0
  53
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  122
  137
  151
  167
  190
  207
  225
  243
  262
  282
  303
  324
  347
  370
  394
  419
  445
  473
  501
  530
  561
  593
  627
  662
Net income, $m
  148
  143
  169
  198
  228
  260
  294
  331
  369
  409
  451
  514
  560
  608
  658
  709
  763
  819
  877
  938
  1,000
  1,066
  1,134
  1,204
  1,278
  1,354
  1,434
  1,517
  1,604
  1,695
  1,790

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,884
  2,222
  2,599
  3,009
  3,452
  3,925
  4,430
  4,965
  5,529
  6,122
  6,743
  7,393
  8,071
  8,778
  9,514
  10,279
  11,074
  11,901
  12,760
  13,652
  14,580
  15,545
  16,549
  17,593
  18,680
  19,812
  20,992
  22,222
  23,505
  24,843
  26,241
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,880
  2,222
  2,599
  3,009
  3,452
  3,925
  4,430
  4,965
  5,529
  6,122
  6,743
  7,393
  8,071
  8,778
  9,514
  10,279
  11,074
  11,901
  12,760
  13,652
  14,580
  15,545
  16,549
  17,593
  18,680
  19,812
  20,992
  22,222
  23,505
  24,843
  26,241
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
  0.214
Average production assets, $m
  1,381
  1,634
  1,911
  2,212
  2,537
  2,886
  3,256
  3,649
  4,064
  4,500
  4,957
  5,434
  5,933
  6,453
  6,993
  7,556
  8,140
  8,748
  9,380
  10,036
  10,718
  11,427
  12,165
  12,932
  13,731
  14,564
  15,431
  16,335
  17,278
  18,262
  19,290
Working capital, $m
  -8
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
Total debt, $m
  1,244
  1,518
  1,820
  2,149
  2,503
  2,882
  3,286
  3,715
  4,166
  4,641
  5,139
  5,660
  6,203
  6,769
  7,358
  7,971
  8,608
  9,270
  9,959
  10,674
  11,417
  12,190
  12,993
  13,830
  14,701
  15,607
  16,552
  17,538
  18,565
  19,638
  20,757
Total liabilities, $m
  1,506
  1,780
  2,082
  2,411
  2,765
  3,144
  3,548
  3,977
  4,428
  4,903
  5,401
  5,922
  6,465
  7,031
  7,620
  8,233
  8,870
  9,532
  10,221
  10,936
  11,679
  12,452
  13,255
  14,092
  14,963
  15,869
  16,814
  17,800
  18,827
  19,900
  21,019
Total equity, $m
  378
  442
  517
  599
  687
  781
  882
  988
  1,100
  1,218
  1,342
  1,471
  1,606
  1,747
  1,893
  2,045
  2,204
  2,368
  2,539
  2,717
  2,901
  3,093
  3,293
  3,501
  3,717
  3,943
  4,177
  4,422
  4,677
  4,944
  5,222
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,884
  2,222
  2,599
  3,010
  3,452
  3,925
  4,430
  4,965
  5,528
  6,121
  6,743
  7,393
  8,071
  8,778
  9,513
  10,278
  11,074
  11,900
  12,760
  13,653
  14,580
  15,545
  16,548
  17,593
  18,680
  19,812
  20,991
  22,222
  23,504
  24,844
  26,241
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.291
  3.430
  3.520
  3.590
  3.640
  3.690
  3.730
  3.760
  3.790
  3.810
  3.830
  3.850
  3.860
  3.880
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.910
  3.920
  3.930
  3.930
  3.940
  3.950
  3.950
  3.950
  3.960
  3.960
  3.970
  3.970
  3.970
  3.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  148
  143
  169
  198
  228
  260
  294
  331
  369
  409
  451
  514
  560
  608
  658
  709
  763
  819
  877
  938
  1,000
  1,066
  1,134
  1,204
  1,278
  1,354
  1,434
  1,517
  1,604
  1,695
  1,790
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  96
  107
  120
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  218
  238
  232
  254
  276
  299
  323
  348
  374
  401
  429
  458
  488
  520
  553
  587
  622
  659
  698
  738
  780
  824
Funds from operations, $m
  254
  239
  277
  318
  362
  409
  459
  512
  568
  627
  689
  746
  814
  884
  957
  1,032
  1,111
  1,193
  1,278
  1,367
  1,458
  1,554
  1,653
  1,757
  1,865
  1,977
  2,094
  2,215
  2,343
  2,475
  2,614
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  243
  241
  279
  320
  365
  412
  463
  516
  572
  631
  693
  751
  818
  888
  961
  1,037
  1,116
  1,198
  1,284
  1,372
  1,464
  1,560
  1,660
  1,764
  1,871
  1,984
  2,101
  2,223
  2,351
  2,484
  2,623
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -95
  -108
  -123
  -139
  -156
  -174
  -192
  -212
  -232
  -254
  -276
  -299
  -323
  -348
  -374
  -401
  -429
  -458
  -488
  -520
  -553
  -587
  -622
  -659
  -698
  -738
  -780
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -253
  -277
  -301
  -325
  -348
  -371
  -393
  -415
  -436
  -457
  -478
  -499
  -520
  -541
  -562
  -585
  -608
  -631
  -656
  -682
  -709
  -738
  -768
  -799
  -832
  -867
  -904
  -943
  -984
  -1,028
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -143
  -312
  -347
  -383
  -420
  -456
  -494
  -532
  -571
  -610
  -649
  -690
  -731
  -774
  -817
  -861
  -908
  -956
  -1,005
  -1,057
  -1,111
  -1,167
  -1,226
  -1,288
  -1,352
  -1,419
  -1,489
  -1,563
  -1,641
  -1,722
  -1,808
Free cash flow, $m
  100
  -70
  -68
  -63
  -55
  -45
  -32
  -16
  1
  22
  44
  61
  87
  115
  145
  176
  209
  243
  278
  315
  353
  393
  434
  476
  520
  565
  612
  660
  710
  761
  815
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  235
  274
  302
  328
  354
  379
  404
  428
  452
  475
  498
  521
  543
  566
  589
  613
  637
  662
  688
  715
  743
  773
  804
  836
  871
  907
  945
  985
  1,028
  1,072
  1,120
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  122
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  81
  274
  302
  328
  354
  379
  404
  428
  452
  475
  498
  521
  543
  566
  589
  613
  637
  662
  688
  715
  743
  773
  804
  836
  871
  907
  945
  985
  1,028
  1,072
  1,120
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  181
  204
  234
  266
  299
  335
  372
  412
  453
  497
  542
  582
  630
  681
  734
  789
  846
  905
  966
  1,030
  1,097
  1,166
  1,238
  1,312
  1,390
  1,472
  1,557
  1,645
  1,737
  1,834
  1,935
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  154
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -278
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  139
  159
  184
  211
  241
  272
  306
  341
  379
  418
  452
  496
  541
  588
  637
  688
  740
  795
  853
  912
  974
  1,038
  1,105
  1,174
  1,246
  1,322
  1,400
  1,482
  1,567
  1,656
Discount rate, %
 
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.88
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.44
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
  22.04
  23.14
  24.30
  25.51
  26.79
  28.12
  29.53
  31.01
  32.56
  34.19
  35.90
  37.69
  39.57
  41.55
  43.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  126
  129
  132
  133
  131
  127
  121
  112
  102
  91
  78
  67
  56
  46
  37
  28
  22
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Holly Energy Partners, L.P., (HEP) is engaged in the business of operating a system of petroleum product and crude pipelines, storage tanks, distribution terminals, loading rack facilities and refinery processing units in West Texas, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Idaho and Washington. The Company operates through segments, including pipelines and terminals segment and a refinery processing unit segment. As of December 31, 2016, its pipelines and terminals segment consisted of 24 main pipeline segments; Crude gathering networks in Texas and New Mexico; 10 refined product terminals; one crude terminal; 8,300 track feet of rail storage located at one facility; seven locations with truck and/or rail racks, and Tankage at all six of HollyFrontier Corporation's (HFC's) refining facility locations. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's refinery processing unit segment consisted of five refinery processing units at two of HFC's refining facility locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Holly Energy Partners (HEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.8
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 53.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 329.1%
Total Debt to Equity 329.1%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Equity 32.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.2%
EBITDA Margin 66.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.1%
Operating Margin 48.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 39.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Net Profit Margin 36.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 129.7%

HEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $402 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Holly Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Holly Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.6%, whose default value for HEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Holly Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Holly Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Holly Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Holly Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HEP are equal to 343.5%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Holly Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HEP is equal to -3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $378 million for Holly Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.327 million for Holly Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Holly Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Is Holly Energy Partners, L.P. a Buy in 2018?   [Jan-04-18 09:03AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Here's How Holly Energy Partners Crushed It in 2017   [Dec-13-17 04:33PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MLPs Rating Updates during the Week Ending November 3   [Nov-07-17 02:40PM  Market Realist]
▶ What Drove Holly Energy Partners 3-Year Total Returns?   [Oct-18-17 10:40AM  Market Realist]
▶ Top MLP Gainers in Week Ended September 8   [Sep-12-17 08:10AM  Market Realist]
▶ Holly Energy Partners, L.P. Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-01-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
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Financial statements of HEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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