Intrinsic value of HFF Cl A - HF

Previous Close

$44.32

  Intrinsic Value

$78.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+78%

Previous close

$44.32

 
Intrinsic value

$78.78

 
Up/down potential

+78%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HF.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.99
  17.80
  16.52
  15.37
  14.33
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  517
  717
  836
  964
  1,103
  1,250
  1,407
  1,573
  1,748
  1,932
  2,125
  2,326
  2,535
  2,754
  2,981
  3,217
  3,463
  3,718
  3,984
  4,259
  4,546
  4,844
  5,154
  5,477
  5,813
  6,163
  6,528
  6,908
  7,305
  7,719
  8,151
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  571
  664
  765
  873
  989
  1,113
  1,243
  1,381
  1,525
  1,676
  1,828
  1,992
  2,164
  2,343
  2,528
  2,721
  2,922
  3,131
  3,347
  3,572
  3,807
  4,050
  4,304
  4,568
  4,843
  5,130
  5,428
  5,740
  6,066
  6,406
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  422
  571
  664
  765
  873
  989
  1,113
  1,243
  1,381
  1,525
  1,676
  1,828
  1,992
  2,164
  2,343
  2,528
  2,721
  2,922
  3,131
  3,347
  3,572
  3,807
  4,050
  4,304
  4,568
  4,843
  5,130
  5,428
  5,740
  6,066
  6,406
Operating income, $m
  96
  147
  172
  200
  229
  261
  295
  330
  368
  407
  448
  498
  543
  590
  638
  689
  742
  796
  853
  912
  974
  1,037
  1,104
  1,173
  1,245
  1,320
  1,398
  1,479
  1,564
  1,653
  1,746
EBITDA, $m
  108
  162
  189
  218
  249
  282
  318
  355
  395
  436
  480
  525
  572
  622
  673
  726
  782
  839
  899
  962
  1,026
  1,094
  1,164
  1,236
  1,312
  1,391
  1,474
  1,560
  1,649
  1,743
  1,840
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  86
  95
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  280
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  132
  154
  177
  202
  228
  256
  286
  317
  350
  384
  427
  464
  503
  544
  586
  630
  675
  722
  772
  823
  876
  931
  988
  1,048
  1,111
  1,176
  1,244
  1,314
  1,388
  1,465
Tax expense, $m
  51
  36
  42
  48
  54
  62
  69
  77
  86
  94
  104
  115
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
  317
  336
  355
  375
  396
Net income, $m
  77
  97
  112
  129
  147
  167
  187
  209
  232
  255
  281
  312
  339
  367
  397
  428
  460
  493
  527
  563
  600
  639
  680
  722
  765
  811
  858
  908
  959
  1,013
  1,070

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  236
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  717
  834
  972
  1,121
  1,282
  1,454
  1,636
  1,830
  2,033
  2,247
  2,470
  2,704
  2,948
  3,202
  3,466
  3,741
  4,027
  4,324
  4,632
  4,953
  5,286
  5,633
  5,993
  6,368
  6,759
  7,166
  7,590
  8,032
  8,494
  8,975
  9,478
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  481
  834
  972
  1,121
  1,282
  1,454
  1,636
  1,830
  2,033
  2,247
  2,470
  2,704
  2,948
  3,202
  3,466
  3,741
  4,027
  4,324
  4,632
  4,953
  5,286
  5,633
  5,993
  6,368
  6,759
  7,166
  7,590
  8,032
  8,494
  8,975
  9,478
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.075
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Average production assets, $m
  47
  83
  97
  112
  128
  145
  163
  183
  203
  224
  246
  270
  294
  319
  346
  373
  402
  431
  462
  494
  527
  562
  598
  635
  674
  715
  757
  801
  847
  895
  946
Working capital, $m
  175
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
Total debt, $m
  292
  342
  424
  513
  609
  711
  820
  935
  1,056
  1,184
  1,317
  1,456
  1,602
  1,753
  1,910
  2,074
  2,244
  2,421
  2,605
  2,796
  2,995
  3,202
  3,416
  3,640
  3,873
  4,115
  4,368
  4,632
  4,907
  5,194
  5,494
Total liabilities, $m
  480
  497
  579
  668
  764
  866
  975
  1,090
  1,212
  1,339
  1,472
  1,612
  1,757
  1,908
  2,066
  2,230
  2,400
  2,577
  2,761
  2,952
  3,150
  3,357
  3,572
  3,796
  4,028
  4,271
  4,524
  4,787
  5,062
  5,349
  5,649
Total equity, $m
  237
  337
  393
  453
  518
  587
  661
  739
  821
  908
  998
  1,093
  1,191
  1,294
  1,400
  1,511
  1,627
  1,747
  1,871
  2,001
  2,136
  2,276
  2,421
  2,573
  2,731
  2,895
  3,066
  3,245
  3,432
  3,626
  3,829
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  717
  834
  972
  1,121
  1,282
  1,453
  1,636
  1,829
  2,033
  2,247
  2,470
  2,705
  2,948
  3,202
  3,466
  3,741
  4,027
  4,324
  4,632
  4,953
  5,286
  5,633
  5,993
  6,369
  6,759
  7,166
  7,590
  8,032
  8,494
  8,975
  9,478
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.232
  1.010
  1.080
  1.130
  1.170
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404
  0.404

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  97
  112
  129
  147
  167
  187
  209
  232
  255
  281
  312
  339
  367
  397
  428
  460
  493
  527
  563
  600
  639
  680
  722
  765
  811
  858
  908
  959
  1,013
  1,070
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  112
  129
  147
  167
  188
  210
  234
  259
  285
  312
  339
  368
  399
  432
  465
  500
  536
  574
  613
  653
  695
  739
  785
  833
  882
  934
  988
  1,044
  1,103
  1,164
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  112
  129
  148
  168
  189
  211
  235
  260
  286
  313
  340
  370
  401
  433
  466
  501
  538
  575
  614
  655
  697
  741
  787
  835
  884
  936
  990
  1,047
  1,105
  1,167
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
Free cash flow, $m
  74
  93
  107
  123
  140
  159
  178
  199
  221
  244
  268
  292
  318
  346
  375
  404
  435
  468
  501
  536
  572
  610
  649
  690
  732
  776
  822
  870
  920
  973
  1,027
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  75
  82
  89
  96
  102
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  75
  82
  89
  96
  102
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  168
  190
  212
  236
  261
  287
  314
  342
  372
  402
  431
  464
  497
  532
  568
  606
  645
  685
  727
  771
  816
  864
  913
  965
  1,019
  1,075
  1,134
  1,195
  1,260
  1,327
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -195
  -203
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  67
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  117
  134
  152
  171
  192
  213
  236
  260
  285
  311
  337
  365
  395
  425
  457
  490
  525
  560
  598
  636
  676
  718
  762
  807
  855
  904
  955
  1,009
  1,065
  1,124
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  112
  123
  132
  141
  149
  155
  160
  163
  164
  163
  160
  156
  150
  143
  134
  125
  114
  103
  92
  81
  70
  60
  50
  41
  33
  26
  21
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

HFF, Inc. is a holding company. The Company holds the partnership interests in Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, L.P. and HFF Securities L.P. (together, the Operating Partnerships), held through the subsidiary HFF Partnership Holdings, LLC, and all of the outstanding shares of Holliday GP Corp. (Holliday GP). The Company operates through the commercial real estate financial intermediary segment. It offers debt placement, investment sales, distressed debt and real estate owned advisory services, equity placement, investment banking and advisory services, loan sales and commercial loan servicing. Its fully-integrated national capital markets platform, coupled with its knowledge of the commercial real estate markets provides an range of capital markets services, including Debt placement; Investment sales; Distressed debt and real estate owned advisory services; Equity placement; Investment banking and advisory services; Loan sales; and Commercial loan servicing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HFF Cl A (HF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 7.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.4%
Total Debt to Equity 123.2%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Return On Equity 34.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.6%
EBITDA Margin 28.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Net Profit Margin 14.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 39.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Payout Ratio 88.3%

HF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $609 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HFF Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of HFF Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HFF Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HFF Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for HFF Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HFF Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HF stock is equal to 2.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HF are equal to 11.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HFF Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HF is equal to -0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $286 million for HFF Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39 million for HFF Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HFF Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
NVR NVR 2,627.75 4,144.22  buy
MMI Marcus&Millich 37.88 32.47  hold
BGCP BGC Partners C 11.54 10.14  sell
PJT PJT Partners 58.08 12.89  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is HFF Incs (NYSE:HF) Share Price Doing?   [Aug-17-18 11:34AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Washington Harbour has a new owner, and he's bullish on the D.C. area   [02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HFF Announces Sale of Burnham Pointe in Chicago   [Jul-18-18 04:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Exclusive: Buyer emerges for Washington Harbour   [Jun-22-18 02:43PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Price tag swells as 40-story tower plans advance   [Jun-06-18 02:22PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HFF Announces $640M Sale of 5 Bryant Park in Manhattan   [May-25-18 04:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ HFF Announces £248M Sale of Cannon Bridge House in London   [May-09-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Industrial park in southwest Houston trades hands   [01:24PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HFF: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ HFF Announces Sale and Financing of Optima Chicago Center   [Apr-17-18 04:23PM  Business Wire]
▶ 2 industrial properties totaling 550,000 SF trade hands in NW Houston   [Apr-05-18 01:23PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ HFF posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-18 07:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tanglewood H-E-B shopping center in Houston for sale   [Feb-23-18 12:25PM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of HF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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