Intrinsic value of HFF Cl A - HF

Previous Close

$35.33

  Intrinsic Value

$52.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+48%

  Value-price divergence*

+23%

Previous close

$35.33

 
Intrinsic value

$52.35

 
Up/down potential

+48%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+23%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HF.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.99
  17.80
  16.52
  15.37
  14.33
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  517
  609
  710
  819
  936
  1,061
  1,195
  1,336
  1,484
  1,640
  1,804
  1,974
  2,152
  2,338
  2,531
  2,731
  2,940
  3,157
  3,382
  3,616
  3,859
  4,112
  4,375
  4,649
  4,935
  5,232
  5,541
  5,864
  6,201
  6,553
  6,920
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  478
  557
  642
  734
  833
  937
  1,048
  1,164
  1,287
  1,415
  1,548
  1,688
  1,833
  1,985
  2,142
  2,306
  2,476
  2,652
  2,836
  3,027
  3,225
  3,431
  3,646
  3,870
  4,103
  4,346
  4,599
  4,863
  5,139
  5,427
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  422
  478
  557
  642
  734
  833
  937
  1,048
  1,164
  1,287
  1,415
  1,548
  1,688
  1,833
  1,985
  2,142
  2,306
  2,476
  2,652
  2,836
  3,027
  3,225
  3,431
  3,646
  3,870
  4,103
  4,346
  4,599
  4,863
  5,139
  5,427
Operating income, $m
  96
  131
  153
  176
  202
  229
  257
  288
  320
  354
  389
  426
  464
  504
  546
  589
  634
  681
  730
  780
  833
  887
  944
  1,003
  1,065
  1,129
  1,196
  1,265
  1,338
  1,414
  1,493
EBITDA, $m
  108
  137
  160
  184
  210
  239
  269
  300
  334
  369
  406
  444
  484
  526
  569
  614
  661
  710
  760
  813
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,110
  1,176
  1,246
  1,319
  1,394
  1,474
  1,556
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  4
  6
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  127
  146
  168
  191
  215
  241
  269
  298
  328
  360
  394
  429
  465
  503
  542
  583
  625
  669
  715
  762
  811
  863
  916
  972
  1,030
  1,090
  1,154
  1,219
  1,288
  1,360
Tax expense, $m
  51
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  65
  73
  80
  89
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  146
  157
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  367
Net income, $m
  77
  92
  107
  122
  139
  157
  176
  196
  217
  240
  263
  288
  313
  339
  367
  396
  425
  456
  488
  522
  556
  592
  630
  669
  710
  752
  796
  842
  890
  940
  993

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  236
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  717
  651
  759
  876
  1,001
  1,135
  1,278
  1,429
  1,587
  1,754
  1,929
  2,112
  2,302
  2,500
  2,707
  2,921
  3,144
  3,376
  3,617
  3,867
  4,128
  4,398
  4,680
  4,973
  5,278
  5,595
  5,927
  6,272
  6,632
  7,008
  7,401
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  481
  651
  759
  876
  1,001
  1,135
  1,278
  1,429
  1,587
  1,754
  1,929
  2,112
  2,302
  2,500
  2,707
  2,921
  3,144
  3,376
  3,617
  3,867
  4,128
  4,398
  4,680
  4,973
  5,278
  5,595
  5,927
  6,272
  6,632
  7,008
  7,401
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.075
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
  0.935
Average production assets, $m
  47
  55
  65
  75
  85
  97
  109
  122
  135
  149
  164
  180
  196
  213
  230
  249
  268
  287
  308
  329
  351
  374
  398
  423
  449
  476
  504
  534
  564
  596
  630
Working capital, $m
  175
  271
  316
  364
  417
  472
  532
  594
  661
  730
  803
  879
  958
  1,040
  1,126
  1,215
  1,308
  1,405
  1,505
  1,609
  1,717
  1,830
  1,947
  2,069
  2,196
  2,328
  2,466
  2,610
  2,760
  2,916
  3,079
Total debt, $m
  292
  184
  245
  312
  384
  460
  542
  628
  718
  814
  913
  1,018
  1,126
  1,240
  1,358
  1,480
  1,607
  1,740
  1,877
  2,020
  2,169
  2,323
  2,484
  2,651
  2,826
  3,007
  3,196
  3,393
  3,599
  3,814
  4,038
Total liabilities, $m
  480
  372
  433
  500
  572
  648
  730
  816
  906
  1,002
  1,101
  1,206
  1,314
  1,428
  1,546
  1,668
  1,795
  1,928
  2,065
  2,208
  2,357
  2,511
  2,672
  2,839
  3,014
  3,195
  3,384
  3,581
  3,787
  4,002
  4,226
Total equity, $m
  237
  279
  326
  376
  429
  487
  548
  613
  681
  753
  828
  906
  988
  1,073
  1,161
  1,253
  1,349
  1,448
  1,552
  1,659
  1,771
  1,887
  2,008
  2,133
  2,264
  2,400
  2,543
  2,691
  2,845
  3,007
  3,175
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  717
  651
  759
  876
  1,001
  1,135
  1,278
  1,429
  1,587
  1,755
  1,929
  2,112
  2,302
  2,501
  2,707
  2,921
  3,144
  3,376
  3,617
  3,867
  4,128
  4,398
  4,680
  4,972
  5,278
  5,595
  5,927
  6,272
  6,632
  7,009
  7,401
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.232
  0.660
  0.750
  0.830
  0.890
  0.940
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.493
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  92
  107
  122
  139
  157
  176
  196
  217
  240
  263
  288
  313
  339
  367
  396
  425
  456
  488
  522
  556
  592
  630
  669
  710
  752
  796
  842
  890
  940
  993
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  98
  114
  130
  148
  167
  187
  209
  231
  255
  280
  306
  333
  361
  390
  420
  452
  485
  519
  555
  591
  630
  670
  711
  754
  799
  846
  895
  947
  1,000
  1,056
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  57
  69
  82
  96
  111
  128
  146
  165
  186
  207
  230
  253
  278
  304
  331
  359
  388
  419
  450
  483
  517
  553
  589
  628
  667
  709
  752
  797
  843
  892
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
Free cash flow, $m
  74
  44
  54
  65
  78
  91
  106
  122
  140
  158
  177
  198
  219
  242
  265
  290
  315
  342
  370
  398
  428
  459
  491
  525
  559
  595
  633
  672
  713
  755
  799
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  56
  61
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  56
  61
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  100
  116
  132
  149
  168
  188
  208
  230
  253
  277
  302
  328
  355
  383
  412
  443
  474
  507
  541
  577
  614
  652
  692
  733
  777
  822
  869
  918
  970
  1,023
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -168
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  58
  69
  82
  96
  110
  127
  144
  162
  182
  202
  224
  246
  270
  295
  320
  347
  375
  404
  434
  465
  497
  531
  566
  603
  640
  680
  721
  764
  808
  855
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  64
  71
  79
  86
  92
  97
  101
  104
  106
  106
  105
  103
  99
  94
  88
  82
  74
  67
  59
  51
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

HFF, Inc. provides commercial real estate and capital market services to the users and providers of capital in the United States commercial real estate industry. It offers debt placement services, such as construction and construction/mini-permanent loans, adjustable and fixed rate mortgages, entity level debts, mezzanine debts, forward delivery loans, tax exempt financing, and sale/leaseback financing to the owners of various properties comprising office, retail, industrial, hotel, multi-housing, student housing, self-storage, senior living, independent living, assisted living, nursing homes, condominiums and condominium conversions, mixed-use properties, and land. The company also provides investment sales services to commercial real estate owners; and equity placement and private equity alternatives and solutions, as well as assists clients in the sale of their commercial real estate debt note portfolios. In addition, it offers private equity, investment banking, and advisory services, including equity capital to establish joint ventures relating to identified properties or properties to be acquired by a fund sponsor; private placements of preferred securities; entity-level advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, sales and divestitures, management buyouts, and recapitalizations and restructurings; and institutional marketing and fund-raising for public and private commercial real estate companies. Further, the company provides commercial loan servicing to life insurance companies. HFF, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. HFF, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of HFF Holdings, LLC

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  HFF Cl A (HF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.5
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.4%
Total Debt to Equity 123.2%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Return On Equity 34.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.6%
EBITDA Margin 28.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 24.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Net Profit Margin 14.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Effective Tax Rate 39.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
Payout Ratio 88.3%

HF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $517 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by HFF Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of HFF Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of HFF Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of HFF Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for HFF Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for HFF Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HF are equal to 9.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in HFF Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HF is equal to 44.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $237 million for HFF Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.133 million for HFF Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of HFF Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ HFF posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 11:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ HFF Closes Sale of Alexan Melrose in San Diego Area   [Jun-20-17 04:19PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to HFF, Inc. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why HFF, Inc. Stock Just Jumped 12%   [01:44PM  Motley Fool]
▶ HFF posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 06:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ HFF Acquires Hentschel & Company in New York City   [Mar-29-17 10:47AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Reasons to Go Long on HFF   [Mar-16-17 02:18PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ HFF, Inc. (HF): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged   [Dec-12-16 04:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of HF Financial statements of HF Annual reports of HF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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