Intrinsic value of Harte-Hanks - HHS

Previous Close

$1.03

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-57%

Previous close

$1.03

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HHS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  404
  412
  422
  432
  445
  458
  473
  489
  506
  525
  545
  567
  590
  614
  640
  668
  697
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,205
  1,264
  1,325
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  610
  624
  640
  658
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  834
  868
  904
  942
  983
  1,026
  1,072
  1,120
  1,171
  1,224
  1,281
  1,341
  1,404
  1,471
  1,541
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
  1,950
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  460
  610
  624
  640
  658
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  834
  868
  904
  942
  983
  1,026
  1,072
  1,120
  1,171
  1,224
  1,281
  1,341
  1,404
  1,471
  1,541
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
  1,950
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -198
  -202
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -226
  -234
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -392
  -410
  -430
  -450
  -471
  -494
  -517
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
EBITDA, $m
  -43
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -204
  -211
  -217
  -225
  -233
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -481
  -504
  -529
  -554
  -581
  -609
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  -69
  -198
  -200
  -205
  -211
  -218
  -225
  -233
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -604
  -634
Tax expense, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -131
  -198
  -200
  -205
  -211
  -218
  -225
  -233
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -604
  -634

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  213
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  548
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  167
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  548
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.419
  2.424
  2.425
  2.413
  2.418
  2.423
  2.426
  2.421
  2.421
  2.419
  2.422
  2.423
  2.418
  2.417
  2.415
  2.420
  2.420
  2.419
  2.416
  2.419
  2.419
  2.419
  2.416
  2.415
  2.421
  2.418
  2.416
  2.421
  2.420
  2.421
  2.418
Average production assets, $m
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
Working capital, $m
  44
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Total debt, $m
  0
  -57
  -53
  -49
  -45
  -40
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -15
  -7
  1
  9
  19
  28
  39
  49
  61
  73
  86
  100
  114
  129
  145
  162
  180
  198
  218
  238
  260
  283
Total liabilities, $m
  211
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  229
  238
  249
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  493
Total equity, $m
  3
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  214
  170
  174
  179
  183
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  226
  234
  243
  254
  264
  277
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  433
  453
  476
  498
  522
  548
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -3.330
  -3.050
  -2.750
  -2.430
  -2.090
  -1.740
  -1.390
  -1.030
  -0.670
  -0.320
  0.040
  0.390
  0.730
  1.070
  1.400
  1.710
  2.020
  2.330
  2.620
  2.900
  3.170
  3.430
  3.680
  3.920
  4.150
  4.370
  4.580
  4.790
  4.980
  5.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.257
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -131
  -198
  -200
  -205
  -211
  -218
  -225
  -233
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -454
  -476
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -604
  -634
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  65
  -189
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -216
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -589
  -618
Change in working capital, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  -189
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -216
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -336
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -487
  -510
  -535
  -562
  -589
  -618
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  100
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  -195
  -197
  -203
  -209
  -215
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -363
  -380
  -397
  -416
  -436
  -457
  -479
  -502
  -526
  -552
  -579
  -607
  -637
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -77
  -57
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  258
  201
  206
  212
  218
  226
  233
  242
  251
  261
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  526
  551
  578
  606
  636
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -80
  201
  205
  210
  217
  223
  232
  239
  248
  258
  268
  276
  288
  300
  314
  327
  342
  358
  374
  392
  411
  430
  450
  472
  495
  519
  545
  571
  599
  628
  659
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  137
  -258
  -201
  -206
  -212
  -218
  -226
  -233
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -317
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -636
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -205
  -194
  -199
  -204
  -210
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -367
  -384
  -402
  -421
  -441
  -462
  -484
  -508
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -614
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -197
  -177
  -173
  -168
  -163
  -157
  -151
  -145
  -138
  -131
  -124
  -116
  -107
  -99
  -90
  -82
  -73
  -65
  -56
  -49
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  23.0
  10.5
  4.8
  2.2
  1.0
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Harte Hanks, Inc. (Harte Hanks) is a multi-channel marketing company. The Company's Customer Interaction business offers a range of marketing services, in media from direct mail to e-mail, including agency and digital services; database marketing solutions and business-to-business lead generation; direct mail, and contact centers. Its agency services are customer engagement agencies specializing in direct and digital communications for both consumer and business-to-business markets. The Company's digital solutions integrate online services within the marketing mix and include search engine management, display, digital analytics, Website development and design, digital strategy, social media, e-mail, e-commerce and interactive relationship management and a range of other services that support its core businesses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harte-Hanks (HHS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 21.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -41.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Return On Total Capital -119.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -56%
Return On Equity -183.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -83.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin -13.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Operating Margin -13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.8%
Net Profit Margin -32.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Effective Tax Rate -30.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Payout Ratio -3.8%

HHS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HHS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $404 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harte-Hanks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Harte-Hanks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HHS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HHS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harte-Hanks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harte-Hanks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HHS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 148%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HHS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Harte-Hanks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harte-Hanks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HHS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HHS are equal to 7.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harte-Hanks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HHS is equal to -0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3 million for Harte-Hanks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.239 million for Harte-Hanks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harte-Hanks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Harte-Hanks, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:17AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 2Q loss   [Sep-28-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harte Hanks Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-16-17 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Hi Ho Silver - ITOCO Major Venture Agreement Signed   [Jul-25-17 06:31PM  Newsfile]
▶ Harte-Hanks reports 4Q loss   [Jun-09-17 10:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harte-Hanks, Inc. : January 9, 2017   [Jan-09-17 01:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harte Hanks gets $112 million and a lawsuit dismissed for the holidays   [04:29PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Harte Hanks Completes Sale of Trillium Business   [Dec-23-16 09:42AM  Marketwired]
▶ Harte Hanks Announces CFO Transition   [Dec-13-16 05:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Is Harte Hanks Inc (HHS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [08:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Harte Hanks Reports Third Quarter Results   [07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Scott Elser Joins Harte Hanks   [Sep-22-16 03:11PM  Marketwired]
▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - HHS   [08:09AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Harte Hanks Reports First Quarter Results   [07:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Dr. Ashish Garg Joins Harte Hanks Consulting   [Apr-14-16 02:05PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of HHS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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