Intrinsic value of Hillenbrand - HI

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$36.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$36.00

 
Intrinsic value

$29.39

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.69
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,538
  1,570
  1,608
  1,650
  1,698
  1,751
  1,808
  1,871
  1,938
  2,011
  2,089
  2,172
  2,261
  2,356
  2,456
  2,563
  2,676
  2,795
  2,921
  3,055
  3,195
  3,344
  3,500
  3,665
  3,839
  4,022
  4,215
  4,418
  4,631
  4,856
  5,092
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,377
  1,409
  1,444
  1,484
  1,528
  1,576
  1,629
  1,685
  1,746
  1,811
  1,818
  1,892
  1,971
  2,055
  2,144
  2,239
  2,339
  2,444
  2,556
  2,674
  2,798
  2,929
  3,067
  3,213
  3,366
  3,527
  3,697
  3,875
  4,063
  4,261
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,347
  1,377
  1,409
  1,444
  1,484
  1,528
  1,576
  1,629
  1,685
  1,746
  1,811
  1,818
  1,892
  1,971
  2,055
  2,144
  2,239
  2,339
  2,444
  2,556
  2,674
  2,798
  2,929
  3,067
  3,213
  3,366
  3,527
  3,697
  3,875
  4,063
  4,261
Operating income, $m
  191
  193
  199
  206
  214
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  278
  355
  369
  385
  401
  418
  437
  456
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  627
  657
  688
  721
  756
  793
  831
EBITDA, $m
  251
  289
  295
  303
  312
  322
  332
  344
  356
  370
  384
  399
  416
  433
  451
  471
  492
  514
  537
  561
  587
  614
  643
  674
  705
  739
  775
  812
  851
  892
  936
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  130
  137
Earnings before tax, $m
  164
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  238
  312
  324
  336
  349
  363
  378
  393
  410
  427
  446
  465
  486
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  634
  663
  694
Tax expense, $m
  47
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
  179
  187
Net income, $m
  113
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  370
  387
  404
  423
  442
  463
  484
  507

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,961
  1,948
  1,995
  2,048
  2,107
  2,172
  2,243
  2,321
  2,405
  2,495
  2,592
  2,695
  2,805
  2,923
  3,047
  3,180
  3,320
  3,468
  3,624
  3,790
  3,964
  4,149
  4,343
  4,548
  4,763
  4,990
  5,230
  5,481
  5,746
  6,025
  6,318
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,909
  1,948
  1,995
  2,048
  2,107
  2,172
  2,243
  2,321
  2,405
  2,495
  2,592
  2,695
  2,805
  2,923
  3,047
  3,180
  3,320
  3,468
  3,624
  3,790
  3,964
  4,149
  4,343
  4,548
  4,763
  4,990
  5,230
  5,481
  5,746
  6,025
  6,318
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  657
  671
  687
  705
  725
  748
  772
  799
  828
  859
  892
  928
  966
  1,006
  1,049
  1,094
  1,142
  1,193
  1,247
  1,304
  1,364
  1,428
  1,495
  1,565
  1,639
  1,718
  1,800
  1,886
  1,978
  2,073
  2,174
Working capital, $m
  166
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  254
  265
  278
  291
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  423
Total debt, $m
  610
  623
  655
  692
  733
  778
  827
  880
  938
  1,000
  1,067
  1,138
  1,214
  1,295
  1,381
  1,472
  1,568
  1,670
  1,778
  1,892
  2,012
  2,139
  2,273
  2,414
  2,563
  2,719
  2,884
  3,058
  3,240
  3,432
  3,634
Total liabilities, $m
  1,329
  1,342
  1,374
  1,411
  1,452
  1,497
  1,546
  1,599
  1,657
  1,719
  1,786
  1,857
  1,933
  2,014
  2,100
  2,191
  2,287
  2,389
  2,497
  2,611
  2,731
  2,858
  2,992
  3,133
  3,282
  3,438
  3,603
  3,777
  3,959
  4,151
  4,353
Total equity, $m
  632
  606
  620
  637
  655
  676
  698
  722
  748
  776
  806
  838
  873
  909
  948
  989
  1,032
  1,078
  1,127
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,351
  1,414
  1,481
  1,552
  1,626
  1,705
  1,787
  1,874
  1,965
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,961
  1,948
  1,994
  2,048
  2,107
  2,173
  2,244
  2,321
  2,405
  2,495
  2,592
  2,695
  2,806
  2,923
  3,048
  3,180
  3,319
  3,467
  3,624
  3,790
  3,964
  4,148
  4,343
  4,547
  4,763
  4,990
  5,229
  5,482
  5,746
  6,025
  6,318
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.965
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.220
  1.250
  1.290
  1.320
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.660
  1.680
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.304
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  370
  387
  404
  423
  442
  463
  484
  507
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  96
  96
  97
  98
  99
  101
  102
  103
  105
  106
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
Funds from operations, $m
  293
  219
  223
  229
  234
  240
  247
  254
  262
  271
  280
  272
  283
  294
  305
  318
  331
  345
  359
  375
  391
  408
  426
  446
  466
  487
  509
  533
  558
  584
  611
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  254
  220
  225
  230
  236
  242
  249
  257
  265
  273
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  335
  349
  364
  379
  396
  413
  432
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  565
  591
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  209
  172
  174
  176
  179
  182
  185
  189
  194
  199
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  27
  32
  36
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  237
  204
  210
  217
  224
  231
  239
  247
  256
  265
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  331
  345
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  450
  471
  493
  516
  541
  566
  593
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  263
  190
  194
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  228
  235
  226
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  309
  323
  337
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  438
  458
  479
  502
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  246
  166
  157
  148
  138
  128
  119
  109
  99
  89
  73
  65
  57
  49
  42
  35
  29
  24
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hillenbrand, Inc. operates as a diversified industrial company worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Process Equipment Group and Batesville. The Process Equipment Group segment designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services process and material handling equipment and systems for various industries, including plastics, processed food, chemicals, fertilizers, industrial minerals, mining, energy, wastewater treatment, and forest products. It provides compounding equipment comprising twin screw compounding and extrusion machines under the Coperion brand; and material handling equipment, such as pneumatic conveying equipment, high-precision feeders, and blenders, as well as rotary, diverters, and slide gate valves under the Coperion and Coperion K-Tron brand names. This segment also offers size reduction equipment under the Pennsylvania Crusher, Gundlach, and Jeffrey Rader brands; screening and separating equipment under the Rotex brand name; piston and piston diaphragm pump technology under the ABEL brand; pinch and duckbill check valves under the Red Valve, Tideflex Technologies, and RKL Controls brand names; and replacement parts and services. In addition, it sells equipment and systems to customers directly, as well as through a network of independent sales representatives and distributors. The Batesville segment designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells funeral services products and solutions, such as burial caskets; cremation caskets, containers, and urns; selection room display fixtures for funeral homes; personalization and memorialization products and services; and Web-based applications consisting of funeral planning, Website products, and back office software for licensed funeral homes to licensed funeral professionals operating licensed funeral establishments. This segment develops and markets operational management software solutions for cemeteries. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Batesville, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hillenbrand (HI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 94.3%
Total Debt to Equity 96.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 18.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Payout Ratio 45.1%

HI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1538 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hillenbrand. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hillenbrand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for HI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hillenbrand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hillenbrand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Hillenbrand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hillenbrand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HI are equal to 42.7%.

Life of production assets of 20.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hillenbrand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HI is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $632 million for Hillenbrand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.778 million for Hillenbrand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hillenbrand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Hillenbrand, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 2Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand posts 1Q profit   [Feb-01-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-05-16 04:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Casket Maker Sees Growth Despite Rise of Cremations   [Nov-03-16 09:51AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hillenbrand Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Tuesday (HI)   [Jun-14-16 09:17AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Hillenbrand Wins Award for Acquisition of ABEL Pumps   [Apr-22-16 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of HI Financial statements of HI Annual reports of HI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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