Intrinsic value of Hillenbrand - HI

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$37.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.45

 
Intrinsic value

$28.90

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,538
  1,569
  1,605
  1,646
  1,692
  1,744
  1,800
  1,861
  1,928
  1,999
  2,076
  2,158
  2,246
  2,339
  2,438
  2,543
  2,654
  2,772
  2,897
  3,029
  3,168
  3,315
  3,470
  3,633
  3,805
  3,986
  4,177
  4,378
  4,589
  4,811
  5,045
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,376
  1,406
  1,441
  1,480
  1,522
  1,570
  1,621
  1,676
  1,736
  1,800
  1,806
  1,879
  1,957
  2,040
  2,128
  2,221
  2,320
  2,424
  2,535
  2,651
  2,774
  2,904
  3,040
  3,184
  3,336
  3,495
  3,663
  3,840
  4,026
  4,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,347
  1,376
  1,406
  1,441
  1,480
  1,522
  1,570
  1,621
  1,676
  1,736
  1,800
  1,806
  1,879
  1,957
  2,040
  2,128
  2,221
  2,320
  2,424
  2,535
  2,651
  2,774
  2,904
  3,040
  3,184
  3,336
  3,495
  3,663
  3,840
  4,026
  4,222
Operating income, $m
  191
  193
  199
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  352
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  453
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  651
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
EBITDA, $m
  251
  288
  295
  302
  311
  320
  331
  342
  354
  367
  381
  397
  413
  430
  448
  467
  488
  509
  532
  557
  582
  609
  638
  668
  699
  732
  768
  804
  843
  884
  927
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
Earnings before tax, $m
  164
  169
  174
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  226
  236
  310
  321
  334
  347
  360
  375
  391
  407
  424
  442
  462
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  600
  628
  657
  688
Tax expense, $m
  47
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
  186
Net income, $m
  113
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  438
  459
  480
  502

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,961
  1,946
  1,991
  2,042
  2,100
  2,163
  2,233
  2,309
  2,392
  2,480
  2,576
  2,677
  2,786
  2,902
  3,025
  3,155
  3,293
  3,440
  3,595
  3,758
  3,931
  4,113
  4,305
  4,508
  4,721
  4,946
  5,182
  5,432
  5,694
  5,969
  6,259
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,909
  1,946
  1,991
  2,042
  2,100
  2,163
  2,233
  2,309
  2,392
  2,480
  2,576
  2,677
  2,786
  2,902
  3,025
  3,155
  3,293
  3,440
  3,595
  3,758
  3,931
  4,113
  4,305
  4,508
  4,721
  4,946
  5,182
  5,432
  5,694
  5,969
  6,259
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
  0.806
Average production assets, $m
  657
  670
  685
  703
  723
  745
  769
  795
  823
  854
  886
  921
  959
  999
  1,041
  1,086
  1,133
  1,184
  1,237
  1,293
  1,353
  1,416
  1,482
  1,551
  1,625
  1,702
  1,784
  1,869
  1,960
  2,054
  2,154
Working capital, $m
  166
  130
  133
  137
  140
  145
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  419
Total debt, $m
  610
  622
  653
  688
  728
  772
  820
  872
  929
  990
  1,056
  1,126
  1,201
  1,280
  1,365
  1,455
  1,550
  1,651
  1,758
  1,870
  1,989
  2,115
  2,247
  2,387
  2,534
  2,689
  2,852
  3,023
  3,204
  3,394
  3,594
Total liabilities, $m
  1,329
  1,341
  1,372
  1,407
  1,447
  1,491
  1,539
  1,591
  1,648
  1,709
  1,775
  1,845
  1,920
  1,999
  2,084
  2,174
  2,269
  2,370
  2,477
  2,589
  2,708
  2,834
  2,966
  3,106
  3,253
  3,408
  3,571
  3,742
  3,923
  4,113
  4,313
Total equity, $m
  632
  605
  619
  635
  653
  673
  695
  718
  744
  771
  801
  833
  866
  902
  941
  981
  1,024
  1,070
  1,118
  1,169
  1,222
  1,279
  1,339
  1,402
  1,468
  1,538
  1,612
  1,689
  1,771
  1,856
  1,947
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,961
  1,946
  1,991
  2,042
  2,100
  2,164
  2,234
  2,309
  2,392
  2,480
  2,576
  2,678
  2,786
  2,901
  3,025
  3,155
  3,293
  3,440
  3,595
  3,758
  3,930
  4,113
  4,305
  4,508
  4,721
  4,946
  5,183
  5,431
  5,694
  5,969
  6,260
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.965
  1.030
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.250
  1.280
  1.320
  1.350
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.510
  1.540
  1.570
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.304
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  226
  235
  244
  253
  263
  274
  285
  297
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  438
  459
  480
  502
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  60
  96
  96
  97
  98
  99
  100
  102
  103
  104
  106
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
Funds from operations, $m
  293
  219
  223
  228
  233
  239
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  405
  423
  442
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  578
  606
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  238
  254
  220
  225
  230
  235
  241
  248
  255
  263
  272
  264
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  346
  361
  376
  393
  410
  428
  448
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  586
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -254
  -45
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  210
  173
  174
  176
  179
  182
  185
  189
  193
  198
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  219
  227
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  300
  312
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  26
  31
  35
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  26
  31
  35
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  236
  203
  209
  216
  222
  230
  237
  246
  254
  264
  256
  267
  278
  289
  302
  315
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
  408
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  561
  587
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  263
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
  234
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  246
  166
  157
  147
  138
  128
  118
  108
  98
  88
  73
  65
  56
  49
  41
  35
  29
  23
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hillenbrand, Inc. operates as a diversified industrial company worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Process Equipment Group and Batesville. The Process Equipment Group segment designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services process and material handling equipment and systems for various industries, including plastics, processed food, chemicals, fertilizers, industrial minerals, mining, energy, wastewater treatment, and forest products. It provides compounding equipment comprising twin screw compounding and extrusion machines under the Coperion brand; and material handling equipment, such as pneumatic conveying equipment, high-precision feeders, and blenders, as well as rotary, diverters, and slide gate valves under the Coperion and Coperion K-Tron brand names. This segment also offers size reduction equipment under the Pennsylvania Crusher, Gundlach, and Jeffrey Rader brands; screening and separating equipment under the Rotex brand name; piston and piston diaphragm pump technology under the ABEL brand; pinch and duckbill check valves under the Red Valve, Tideflex Technologies, and RKL Controls brand names; and replacement parts and services. In addition, it sells equipment and systems to customers directly, as well as through a network of independent sales representatives and distributors. The Batesville segment designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells funeral services products and solutions, such as burial caskets; cremation caskets, containers, and urns; selection room display fixtures for funeral homes; personalization and memorialization products and services; and Web-based applications consisting of funeral planning, Website products, and back office software for licensed funeral homes to licensed funeral professionals operating licensed funeral establishments. This segment develops and markets operational management software solutions for cemeteries. The company was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Batesville, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hillenbrand (HI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.9
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 94.3%
Total Debt to Equity 96.5%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Equity 18.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
EBITDA Margin 16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 28.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Payout Ratio 45.1%

HI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1538 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hillenbrand. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hillenbrand. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for HI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hillenbrand, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hillenbrand.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Hillenbrand.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hillenbrand. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HI are equal to 42.7%.

Life of production assets of 20.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hillenbrand operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HI is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $632 million for Hillenbrand - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 63.598 million for Hillenbrand is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hillenbrand at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hillenbrand posts 1Q profit   [Feb-01-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-05-16 04:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Casket Maker Sees Growth Despite Rise of Cremations   [Nov-03-16 09:51AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hillenbrand Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Tuesday (HI)   [Jun-14-16 09:17AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Hillenbrand Wins Award for Acquisition of ABEL Pumps   [Apr-22-16 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cincinnati public company makes $132M acquisition   [Dec-23  07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of HI Financial statements of HI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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