Intrinsic value of Herbalife - HLF

Previous Close

$74.62

  Intrinsic Value

$31.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$74.62

 
Intrinsic value

$31.50

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HLF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.43
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,488
  4,578
  4,683
  4,803
  4,939
  5,088
  5,253
  5,431
  5,625
  5,834
  6,058
  6,297
  6,553
  6,825
  7,114
  7,421
  7,746
  8,090
  8,454
  8,839
  9,245
  9,674
  10,125
  10,602
  11,104
  11,632
  12,189
  12,775
  13,391
  14,040
  14,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,978
  4,069
  4,174
  4,291
  4,420
  4,563
  4,718
  4,886
  5,067
  5,261
  5,460
  5,681
  5,917
  6,168
  6,434
  6,716
  7,014
  7,330
  7,663
  8,015
  8,387
  8,779
  9,192
  9,627
  10,085
  10,568
  11,076
  11,610
  12,172
  12,764
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,030
  3,978
  4,069
  4,174
  4,291
  4,420
  4,563
  4,718
  4,886
  5,067
  5,261
  5,460
  5,681
  5,917
  6,168
  6,434
  6,716
  7,014
  7,330
  7,663
  8,015
  8,387
  8,779
  9,192
  9,627
  10,085
  10,568
  11,076
  11,610
  12,172
  12,764
Operating income, $m
  458
  600
  614
  630
  648
  668
  690
  713
  739
  767
  797
  838
  872
  908
  946
  987
  1,030
  1,076
  1,124
  1,176
  1,230
  1,287
  1,347
  1,410
  1,477
  1,547
  1,621
  1,699
  1,781
  1,867
  1,958
EBITDA, $m
  556
  696
  712
  731
  751
  774
  799
  826
  856
  887
  921
  958
  997
  1,038
  1,082
  1,129
  1,178
  1,231
  1,286
  1,344
  1,406
  1,471
  1,540
  1,613
  1,689
  1,769
  1,854
  1,943
  2,037
  2,136
  2,239
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  50
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
Earnings before tax, $m
  365
  550
  591
  606
  622
  640
  660
  682
  706
  731
  758
  797
  828
  861
  896
  933
  973
  1,015
  1,059
  1,106
  1,155
  1,207
  1,262
  1,320
  1,381
  1,445
  1,513
  1,584
  1,659
  1,738
  1,821
Tax expense, $m
  105
  148
  160
  163
  168
  173
  178
  184
  191
  197
  205
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  373
  390
  408
  428
  448
  469
  492
Net income, $m
  260
  401
  431
  442
  454
  467
  482
  498
  515
  534
  554
  582
  604
  628
  654
  681
  710
  741
  773
  807
  843
  881
  921
  964
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,156
  1,211
  1,269
  1,329

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  844
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,565
  1,755
  1,796
  1,842
  1,894
  1,951
  2,014
  2,083
  2,157
  2,237
  2,323
  2,415
  2,513
  2,617
  2,728
  2,845
  2,970
  3,102
  3,242
  3,389
  3,545
  3,709
  3,882
  4,065
  4,258
  4,460
  4,674
  4,898
  5,135
  5,383
  5,645
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,721
  1,755
  1,796
  1,842
  1,894
  1,951
  2,014
  2,083
  2,157
  2,237
  2,323
  2,415
  2,513
  2,617
  2,728
  2,845
  2,970
  3,102
  3,242
  3,389
  3,545
  3,709
  3,882
  4,065
  4,258
  4,460
  4,674
  4,898
  5,135
  5,383
  5,645
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.608
  2.609
  2.607
  2.607
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.607
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.607
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
  2.608
Average production assets, $m
  669
  682
  698
  716
  736
  758
  783
  809
  838
  869
  903
  938
  976
  1,017
  1,060
  1,106
  1,154
  1,205
  1,260
  1,317
  1,378
  1,441
  1,509
  1,580
  1,654
  1,733
  1,816
  1,903
  1,995
  2,092
  2,194
Working capital, $m
  671
  -165
  -169
  -173
  -178
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -279
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -530
Total debt, $m
  1,448
  659
  695
  737
  783
  835
  892
  953
  1,020
  1,092
  1,169
  1,252
  1,340
  1,434
  1,534
  1,640
  1,752
  1,871
  1,996
  2,129
  2,269
  2,417
  2,573
  2,738
  2,911
  3,093
  3,285
  3,487
  3,700
  3,924
  4,159
Total liabilities, $m
  2,369
  1,580
  1,616
  1,658
  1,704
  1,756
  1,813
  1,874
  1,941
  2,013
  2,090
  2,173
  2,261
  2,355
  2,455
  2,561
  2,673
  2,792
  2,917
  3,050
  3,190
  3,338
  3,494
  3,659
  3,832
  4,014
  4,206
  4,408
  4,621
  4,845
  5,080
Total equity, $m
  196
  176
  180
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  216
  224
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
  564
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,565
  1,756
  1,796
  1,842
  1,893
  1,951
  2,014
  2,082
  2,157
  2,237
  2,322
  2,414
  2,512
  2,617
  2,728
  2,846
  2,970
  3,102
  3,241
  3,389
  3,544
  3,709
  3,882
  4,066
  4,258
  4,460
  4,673
  4,898
  5,134
  5,383
  5,644
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.388
  3.750
  3.870
  4.000
  4.140
  4.280
  4.430
  4.580
  4.730
  4.880
  5.030
  5.190
  5.330
  5.480
  5.620
  5.760
  5.900
  6.030
  6.160
  6.280
  6.400
  6.520
  6.630
  6.730
  6.840
  6.940
  7.030
  7.120
  7.210
  7.290
  7.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.377
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  260
  401
  431
  442
  454
  467
  482
  498
  515
  534
  554
  582
  604
  628
  654
  681
  710
  741
  773
  807
  843
  881
  921
  964
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,156
  1,211
  1,269
  1,329
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  98
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  125
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Funds from operations, $m
  309
  498
  530
  543
  557
  574
  591
  611
  632
  654
  678
  702
  729
  759
  790
  823
  858
  895
  935
  976
  1,020
  1,066
  1,115
  1,166
  1,220
  1,277
  1,337
  1,400
  1,467
  1,537
  1,610
Change in working capital, $m
  -58
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  367
  501
  534
  547
  562
  579
  597
  617
  639
  662
  686
  710
  739
  769
  800
  834
  870
  908
  948
  990
  1,034
  1,081
  1,131
  1,183
  1,238
  1,296
  1,357
  1,422
  1,489
  1,560
  1,635
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -86
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -143
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -141
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -370
Free cash flow, $m
  226
  402
  430
  440
  450
  462
  476
  490
  506
  523
  542
  559
  580
  603
  627
  653
  680
  708
  739
  771
  805
  841
  879
  919
  961
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,208
  1,265
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -239
  -779
  36
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  412
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -252
  -367
  36
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -46
  35
  467
  481
  497
  514
  532
  552
  573
  595
  619
  642
  668
  697
  727
  758
  792
  827
  865
  904
  945
  989
  1,035
  1,083
  1,134
  1,188
  1,244
  1,304
  1,366
  1,432
  1,501
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -250
  -814
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  834
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  56
  463
  477
  492
  508
  526
  545
  565
  587
  610
  633
  659
  686
  716
  747
  779
  814
  851
  889
  930
  972
  1,018
  1,065
  1,115
  1,168
  1,223
  1,281
  1,342
  1,407
  1,474
Discount rate, %
 
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  53
  423
  414
  403
  392
  379
  365
  350
  333
  315
  295
  276
  255
  234
  213
  192
  171
  151
  131
  113
  96
  80
  66
  53
  42
  33
  25
  19
  14
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Herbalife Ltd. is a global nutrition company. The Company develops and sells weight management, healthy meals and snacks, sports and fitness, energy and targeted nutritional products, as well as personal care products. Its operating segments are based on geographical operations in six regions: North America; Mexico; South and Central America; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); Asia Pacific, and China. The Company categorizes its products into five groups: weight management, targeted nutrition, energy, sports and fitness, outer nutrition, and literature, promotional and other. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed and sold approximately 140 products encompassing over 4,700 stock keeping units (SKUs) globally. Its product categories include meal replacement; protein shakes; drink mixes; dietary and nutritional supplements containing herbs, vitamins, minerals and other natural ingredients; facial skin care; body care; hair care products; sales tools, and educational materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Herbalife (HLF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 35.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 81%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 84
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 733.7%
Total Debt to Equity 738.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Return On Total Capital 16.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Return On Equity 366.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 158.7%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 28.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

HLF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HLF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4488 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Herbalife. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Herbalife. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HLF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for HLF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Herbalife, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Herbalife.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HLF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HLF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Herbalife.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Herbalife. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HLF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HLF are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Herbalife operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HLF is equal to -3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $196 million for Herbalife - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.943 million for Herbalife is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Herbalife at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of HLF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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