Intrinsic value of Harmonic - HLIT

Previous Close

$2.95

  Intrinsic Value

$1.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$2.95

 
Intrinsic value

$1.03

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HLIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  406
  414
  424
  435
  447
  460
  475
  491
  509
  528
  548
  570
  593
  617
  644
  671
  701
  732
  765
  800
  836
  875
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,156
  1,211
  1,270
  1,332
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  430
  439
  450
  462
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  561
  559
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  476
  430
  439
  450
  462
  475
  490
  506
  523
  541
  561
  559
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  718
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
Operating income, $m
  -70
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
EBITDA, $m
  -36
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  -80
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -72
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  554
  501
  512
  525
  540
  557
  575
  594
  615
  638
  663
  689
  717
  747
  778
  812
  847
  885
  925
  967
  1,011
  1,058
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,272
  1,333
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,610
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  491
  501
  512
  525
  540
  557
  575
  594
  615
  638
  663
  689
  717
  747
  778
  812
  847
  885
  925
  967
  1,011
  1,058
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,272
  1,333
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,610
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.827
  0.826
  0.828
  0.829
  0.828
  0.826
  0.826
  0.827
  0.828
  0.828
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.826
  0.828
  0.826
  0.828
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.826
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
  0.827
Average production assets, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
Working capital, $m
  72
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Total debt, $m
  124
  122
  129
  136
  145
  154
  164
  175
  187
  200
  213
  228
  244
  261
  278
  297
  317
  338
  361
  384
  409
  436
  463
  493
  524
  556
  590
  626
  664
  704
  746
Total liabilities, $m
  283
  281
  288
  295
  304
  313
  323
  334
  346
  359
  372
  387
  403
  420
  437
  456
  476
  497
  520
  543
  568
  595
  622
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
  905
Total equity, $m
  271
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  270
  280
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  642
  673
  705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  554
  500
  512
  525
  541
  557
  575
  594
  616
  639
  662
  689
  717
  747
  778
  812
  847
  885
  925
  966
  1,011
  1,058
  1,107
  1,160
  1,215
  1,272
  1,333
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,610
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.458
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.424
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -72
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -70
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  -70
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  52
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -71
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  57
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  63
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  59
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.5
  78.3
  69.1
  61.0
  53.9
  47.6
  42.0
  37.1
  32.8
  29.1
  28.0
  26.9
  25.7
  24.6
  23.5
  22.5
  21.4
  20.4
  19.4
  18.4
  17.4
  16.5
  15.6
  14.7
  13.9
  13.1
  12.4
  11.7
  11.0
  10.3

Harmonic Inc. (Harmonic) designs, manufactures and sells video infrastructure products, and system solutions. The Company has two segments: Video and Cable Edge. Harmonic provides technical support and professional services to its customers around the world. The Video segment sells video processing and production, and playout solutions and services to broadcast and media companies, streaming media companies, cable operators, and satellite and telecommunications (telco), and pay television (TV) service providers. Its Cable Edge business sells cable edge solutions and related services to cable operators around the world. The Video segment offers a range of products and solutions, as well as software-based media processing platforms. The Company's Narrowcast Services Gateway (NSG) products are integrated edge gateway products that integrate routing, multiplexing, scrambling and modulation into a single package for the delivery of narrowcast services to subscribers over cable networks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harmonic (HLIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 43.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage -15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Return On Total Capital -17.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Return On Equity -24%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.1%
EBITDA Margin -10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Operating Margin -17.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.7%
Net Profit Margin -17.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33%
Payout Ratio 0%

HLIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HLIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $406 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harmonic. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Harmonic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HLIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for HLIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harmonic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harmonic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HLIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HLIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Harmonic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harmonic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HLIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HLIT are equal to 11.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harmonic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HLIT is equal to 3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $271 million for Harmonic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.207 million for Harmonic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harmonic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Harmonic Appoints David Krall to its Board of Directors   [Feb-12-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : December 25, 2017   [Dec-25-17 11:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ YES Launches Live UHD-HDR Channel With Harmonic   [Nov-07-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Harmonic Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Oct-31-17 01:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Harmonic reports 3Q loss   [Oct-30-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 10:41AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:38AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 08:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harmonic reports 2Q loss   [Jul-31-17 09:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Harmonic slashes Q2 outlook   [07:25AM  MarketWatch]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ What Makes Harmonic (HLIT) a Strong Sell?   [May-23-17 08:49AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Harmonic, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Harmonic Inc. Shares Are Taking a Beating Today   [May-02-17 02:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Harmonic reports 1Q loss   [May-01-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Harmonic Announces First Quarter 2017 Reporting Date   [Apr-20-17 04:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Harmonic Playout Solution Powers MLB Network   [Mar-01-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Harmonic reports 4Q loss   [05:51PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HLIT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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