Intrinsic value of Horace Mann Educators - HMN

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$39.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$39.25

 
Intrinsic value

$114.91

 
Up/down potential

+193%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HMN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  1,163
  1,190
  1,220
  1,254
  1,292
  1,334
  1,380
  1,429
  1,482
  1,539
  1,600
  1,664
  1,734
  1,807
  1,885
  1,968
  2,055
  2,147
  2,245
  2,348
  2,457
  2,572
  2,693
  2,820
  2,955
  3,096
  3,245
  3,402
  3,566
  3,740
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,012
  1,035
  1,061
  1,091
  1,124
  1,160
  1,199
  1,242
  1,288
  1,337
  1,385
  1,441
  1,501
  1,565
  1,632
  1,704
  1,779
  1,859
  1,944
  2,033
  2,128
  2,227
  2,332
  2,442
  2,558
  2,681
  2,810
  2,945
  3,088
  3,238
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,014
  1,012
  1,035
  1,061
  1,091
  1,124
  1,160
  1,199
  1,242
  1,288
  1,337
  1,385
  1,441
  1,501
  1,565
  1,632
  1,704
  1,779
  1,859
  1,944
  2,033
  2,128
  2,227
  2,332
  2,442
  2,558
  2,681
  2,810
  2,945
  3,088
  3,238
Operating income, $m
  126
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  215
  223
  233
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  502
EBITDA, $m
  126
  159
  163
  167
  171
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
Interest expense (income), $m
  -12
  9
  15
  22
  31
  41
  51
  63
  76
  90
  105
  122
  139
  157
  177
  198
  220
  244
  268
  295
  323
  352
  383
  416
  450
  486
  524
  565
  607
  652
  698
Earnings before tax, $m
  114
  143
  140
  137
  133
  128
  123
  117
  111
  104
  96
  93
  84
  75
  65
  55
  44
  32
  20
  6
  -8
  -22
  -38
  -54
  -72
  -90
  -109
  -129
  -151
  -173
  -197
Tax expense, $m
  30
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  33
  32
  30
  28
  26
  25
  23
  20
  18
  15
  12
  9
  5
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  84
  104
  102
  100
  97
  93
  90
  85
  81
  76
  70
  68
  62
  55
  48
  40
  32
  23
  14
  5
  -8
  -22
  -38
  -54
  -72
  -90
  -109
  -129
  -151
  -173
  -197

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  10,577
  10,767
  11,014
  11,297
  11,615
  11,967
  12,354
  12,774
  13,230
  13,720
  14,247
  14,810
  15,411
  16,051
  16,732
  17,453
  18,218
  19,028
  19,884
  20,789
  21,744
  22,752
  23,815
  24,935
  26,115
  27,359
  28,668
  30,046
  31,495
  33,021
  34,625
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10,577
  10,767
  11,014
  11,297
  11,615
  11,967
  12,354
  12,774
  13,230
  13,720
  14,247
  14,810
  15,411
  16,051
  16,732
  17,453
  18,218
  19,028
  19,884
  20,789
  21,744
  22,752
  23,815
  24,935
  26,115
  27,359
  28,668
  30,046
  31,495
  33,021
  34,625
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
  0.108
Average production assets, $m
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  247
  417
  635
  883
  1,162
  1,471
  1,811
  2,180
  2,580
  3,011
  3,473
  3,967
  4,495
  5,057
  5,654
  6,288
  6,960
  7,670
  8,422
  9,216
  10,055
  10,940
  11,873
  12,857
  13,893
  14,985
  16,134
  17,344
  18,617
  19,956
  21,365
Total liabilities, $m
  9,283
  9,453
  9,671
  9,919
  10,198
  10,507
  10,847
  11,216
  11,616
  12,047
  12,509
  13,003
  13,531
  14,093
  14,690
  15,324
  15,996
  16,706
  17,458
  18,252
  19,091
  19,976
  20,909
  21,893
  22,929
  24,021
  25,170
  26,380
  27,653
  28,992
  30,401
Total equity, $m
  1,294
  1,314
  1,344
  1,378
  1,417
  1,460
  1,507
  1,558
  1,614
  1,674
  1,738
  1,807
  1,880
  1,958
  2,041
  2,129
  2,223
  2,321
  2,426
  2,536
  2,653
  2,776
  2,905
  3,042
  3,186
  3,338
  3,497
  3,666
  3,842
  4,029
  4,224
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  10,577
  10,767
  11,015
  11,297
  11,615
  11,967
  12,354
  12,774
  13,230
  13,721
  14,247
  14,810
  15,411
  16,051
  16,731
  17,453
  18,219
  19,027
  19,884
  20,788
  21,744
  22,752
  23,814
  24,935
  26,115
  27,359
  28,667
  30,046
  31,495
  33,021
  34,625
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.191
  0.320
  0.470
  0.640
  0.820
  1.010
  1.200
  1.400
  1.600
  1.800
  2.000
  2.200
  2.390
  2.580
  2.770
  2.950
  3.130
  3.300
  3.470
  3.630
  3.790
  3.940
  4.090
  4.230
  4.360
  4.490
  4.610
  4.730
  4.850
  4.950
  5.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  84
  104
  102
  100
  97
  93
  90
  85
  81
  76
  70
  68
  62
  55
  48
  40
  32
  23
  14
  5
  -8
  -22
  -38
  -54
  -72
  -90
  -109
  -129
  -151
  -173
  -197
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Funds from operations, $m
  -257
  112
  110
  108
  105
  101
  98
  94
  89
  84
  79
  72
  66
  59
  52
  45
  37
  29
  20
  10
  -2
  -16
  -32
  -48
  -65
  -83
  -101
  -121
  -142
  -164
  -188
Change in working capital, $m
  -464
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  207
  115
  110
  108
  105
  101
  98
  94
  89
  84
  79
  72
  66
  59
  52
  45
  37
  29
  20
  10
  -2
  -16
  -32
  -48
  -65
  -83
  -101
  -121
  -142
  -164
  -188
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -325
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Free cash flow, $m
  -118
  112
  106
  104
  101
  97
  93
  89
  84
  79
  74
  67
  60
  53
  46
  38
  30
  21
  12
  2
  -10
  -25
  -41
  -57
  -75
  -93
  -112
  -133
  -154
  -177
  -201
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  170
  217
  249
  279
  309
  339
  369
  400
  431
  462
  495
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  711
  752
  794
  839
  885
  933
  984
  1,036
  1,092
  1,149
  1,210
  1,273
  1,339
  1,409
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  163
  170
  217
  249
  279
  309
  339
  369
  400
  431
  462
  495
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  711
  752
  794
  839
  885
  933
  984
  1,036
  1,092
  1,149
  1,210
  1,273
  1,339
  1,409
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  45
  282
  324
  352
  380
  406
  433
  458
  484
  510
  536
  561
  588
  615
  643
  672
  702
  732
  764
  797
  829
  860
  893
  927
  962
  999
  1,037
  1,077
  1,119
  1,162
  1,208
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -20
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  262
  294
  318
  341
  363
  385
  407
  429
  450
  472
  492
  515
  537
  560
  584
  608
  634
  659
  686
  712
  737
  763
  790
  818
  847
  877
  909
  942
  976
  1,012
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  252
  269
  277
  281
  282
  280
  275
  268
  259
  247
  234
  220
  204
  188
  171
  155
  138
  121
  106
  90
  76
  63
  52
  42
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Horace Mann Educators Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a multiline insurance company in the United States. The Company operates through four segments: Property and Casualty Insurance, Annuity Products, Life Insurance, and Corporate and Other. It underwrites and markets personal lines of property and casualty insurance, including personal lines, automobile, and homeowners insurance products; retirement annuities comprising tax-qualified; and life insurance products. The company markets its products through its sales force of full-time agents and independent agents to K-12 teachers, administrators, and other employees of public schools and their families. Horace Mann Educators Corporation was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Horace Mann Educators (HMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.8
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 19.1%
Total Debt to Equity 19.1%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 8.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 26.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Payout Ratio 52.4%

HMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1140 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Horace Mann Educators. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Horace Mann Educators. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Horace Mann Educators, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Horace Mann Educators.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Horace Mann Educators.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Horace Mann Educators. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMN are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Horace Mann Educators operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMN is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1294 million for Horace Mann Educators - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.682 million for Horace Mann Educators is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Horace Mann Educators at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Horace Mann posts 1Q profit   [Apr-24-17 05:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Horace Mann Increases Quarterly Dividend by 4%   [Mar-08-17 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Horace Mann posts 4Q profit   [Feb-06-17 05:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-20-16 01:15PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Horace Mann Reports Quarterly Dividend of $0.265   [Dec-07-16 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Horace Mann Reports Quarterly Dividend of $0.265   [Sep-02-16 04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Horace Mann Reports Quarterly Dividend of $0.265   [May-25-16 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Horace Mann Increases Quarterly Dividend by 6%   [Mar-09-16 04:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ Horace Mann Reports Quarterly Dividend of $0.25   [Dec-09  04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)   [Dec-08  06:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is First Midwest Bancorp Inc (FMBI) a Good Buy?   [Nov-30  09:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of HMN Financial statements of HMN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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