Intrinsic value of Harmony Gold Mining ADR - HMY

Previous Close

$1.65

  Intrinsic Value

$1.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$1.65

 
Intrinsic value

$1.26

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of HMY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.06
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,453
  1,527
  1,605
  1,686
  1,772
  1,862
  1,956
  2,055
  2,158
  2,267
  2,382
  2,501
  2,627
  2,759
  2,898
  3,044
  3,196
  3,357
  3,525
  3,702
  3,888
  4,082
  4,287
  4,502
  4,727
  4,964
  5,213
  5,474
  5,748
  6,035
  6,337
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,394
  1,465
  1,540
  1,618
  1,700
  1,786
  1,876
  1,971
  2,070
  2,174
  2,284
  2,399
  2,519
  2,646
  2,779
  2,918
  3,065
  3,219
  3,380
  3,549
  3,727
  3,914
  4,110
  4,316
  4,532
  4,759
  4,997
  5,248
  5,510
  5,786
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,467
  1,394
  1,465
  1,540
  1,618
  1,700
  1,786
  1,876
  1,971
  2,070
  2,174
  2,284
  2,399
  2,519
  2,646
  2,779
  2,918
  3,065
  3,219
  3,380
  3,549
  3,727
  3,914
  4,110
  4,316
  4,532
  4,759
  4,997
  5,248
  5,510
  5,786
Operating income, $m
  -14
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  411
  432
  453
  476
  500
  525
  551
EBITDA, $m
  -14
  254
  267
  280
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
  506
  532
  558
  586
  616
  647
  679
  713
  749
  786
  826
  867
  910
  956
  1,004
  1,054
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  287
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  477
Tax expense, $m
  -38
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
Net income, $m
  27
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  348

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,933
  2,983
  3,134
  3,294
  3,461
  3,636
  3,820
  4,013
  4,216
  4,428
  4,651
  4,886
  5,131
  5,389
  5,660
  5,945
  6,243
  6,556
  6,885
  7,231
  7,593
  7,974
  8,373
  8,793
  9,233
  9,695
  10,181
  10,691
  11,226
  11,788
  12,378
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,839
  2,983
  3,134
  3,294
  3,461
  3,636
  3,820
  4,013
  4,216
  4,428
  4,651
  4,886
  5,131
  5,389
  5,660
  5,945
  6,243
  6,556
  6,885
  7,231
  7,593
  7,974
  8,373
  8,793
  9,233
  9,695
  10,181
  10,691
  11,226
  11,788
  12,378
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
  0.512
Average production assets, $m
  1,152
  1,211
  1,273
  1,337
  1,405
  1,476
  1,551
  1,629
  1,712
  1,798
  1,889
  1,984
  2,083
  2,188
  2,298
  2,414
  2,535
  2,662
  2,796
  2,936
  3,083
  3,237
  3,400
  3,570
  3,749
  3,936
  4,134
  4,341
  4,558
  4,786
  5,025
Working capital, $m
  82
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  411
  432
  453
  476
  500
  525
  551
Total debt, $m
  161
  100
  134
  169
  206
  245
  286
  329
  374
  421
  471
  523
  577
  634
  695
  758
  824
  893
  967
  1,043
  1,124
  1,208
  1,297
  1,390
  1,488
  1,590
  1,698
  1,811
  1,930
  2,055
  2,186
Total liabilities, $m
  724
  662
  696
  731
  768
  807
  848
  891
  936
  983
  1,033
  1,085
  1,139
  1,196
  1,257
  1,320
  1,386
  1,455
  1,529
  1,605
  1,686
  1,770
  1,859
  1,952
  2,050
  2,152
  2,260
  2,373
  2,492
  2,617
  2,748
Total equity, $m
  2,210
  2,320
  2,439
  2,562
  2,692
  2,829
  2,972
  3,122
  3,280
  3,445
  3,619
  3,801
  3,992
  4,193
  4,404
  4,625
  4,857
  5,101
  5,357
  5,625
  5,907
  6,203
  6,514
  6,841
  7,183
  7,543
  7,921
  8,317
  8,734
  9,171
  9,630
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,934
  2,982
  3,135
  3,293
  3,460
  3,636
  3,820
  4,013
  4,216
  4,428
  4,652
  4,886
  5,131
  5,389
  5,661
  5,945
  6,243
  6,556
  6,886
  7,230
  7,593
  7,973
  8,373
  8,793
  9,233
  9,695
  10,181
  10,690
  11,226
  11,788
  12,378
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.073
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.745
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778
  0.778

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  200
  210
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  333
  348
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
Funds from operations, $m
  574
  216
  227
  237
  249
  260
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  437
  458
  480
  503
  528
  553
  580
  609
  639
  670
  703
  737
  773
  811
  851
Change in working capital, $m
  287
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  287
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  304
  319
  334
  351
  367
  385
  404
  423
  444
  465
  488
  512
  537
  563
  590
  619
  649
  681
  714
  749
  786
  825
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
New CAPEX, $m
  -296
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -261
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -620
  -651
  -684
  -719
Free cash flow, $m
  26
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  15
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  94
  99
  105
  110
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  48
  53
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  136
  143
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  196
  207
  218
  230
  241
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  84
  90
  94
  99
  103
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  332
  348
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -110
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -437
  -459
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  97.9
  96.7
  95.6
  94.4
  93.2
  92.0
  90.8
  89.6
  88.3
  87.1
  85.9
  84.7
  83.4
  82.2
  81.0
  79.7
  78.5
  77.3
  76.1
  74.9
  73.7
  72.5
  71.3
  70.2
  69.0
  67.9
  66.7
  65.6
  64.5

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in gold mining and related activities, including exploration, extraction and processing. The Company's segments include South Africa Underground, Surface, and International. The South Africa Underground segment includes Kusasalethu, Doornkop, Phakisa, Tshepong, Masimong, Target 1, Bambanani, Joel, Unisel and Target 3. The Surface segment comprises the Company's other surface operations. The Company's International segment comprises Hidden Valley Project. The Company has operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The Company's principal product is the Gold bullion. The Company's exploration projects include Golpu project and Kili Teke prospect. The Company has approximately nine underground mines, one open pit operation and several surface sources in South Africa. The Company's subsidiaries include Lydenburg Exploration Limited, Tswelopele Beneficiation Operation (TBO) and Harmony Copper Limited.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harmony Gold Mining ADR (HMY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -80.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 1%
Total Debt to Equity 7.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Equity 1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
EBITDA Margin -0.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Operating Margin -1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 345.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 132.8%
Payout Ratio 122.2%

HMY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HMY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1453 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harmony Gold Mining ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Harmony Gold Mining ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HMY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for HMY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harmony Gold Mining ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harmony Gold Mining ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HMY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HMY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Harmony Gold Mining ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harmony Gold Mining ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HMY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HMY are equal to 79.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harmony Gold Mining ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HMY is equal to 8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2210 million for Harmony Gold Mining ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 437.693 million for Harmony Gold Mining ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harmony Gold Mining ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of HMY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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