Intrinsic value of Hooker Furniture - HOFT

Previous Close

$41.55

  Intrinsic Value

$63.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+52%

Previous close

$41.55

 
Intrinsic value

$63.26

 
Up/down potential

+52%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HOFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  133.60
  14.70
  13.73
  12.86
  12.07
  11.36
  10.73
  10.15
  9.64
  9.18
  8.76
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  577
  662
  753
  849
  952
  1,060
  1,174
  1,293
  1,418
  1,548
  1,683
  1,825
  1,971
  2,124
  2,282
  2,447
  2,618
  2,796
  2,981
  3,174
  3,374
  3,583
  3,800
  4,026
  4,262
  4,508
  4,765
  5,033
  5,313
  5,606
  5,912
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  597
  679
  766
  858
  955
  1,058
  1,165
  1,277
  1,394
  1,516
  1,640
  1,772
  1,909
  2,052
  2,200
  2,354
  2,514
  2,680
  2,853
  3,034
  3,221
  3,416
  3,620
  3,832
  4,053
  4,284
  4,525
  4,777
  5,040
  5,315
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  538
  597
  679
  766
  858
  955
  1,058
  1,165
  1,277
  1,394
  1,516
  1,640
  1,772
  1,909
  2,052
  2,200
  2,354
  2,514
  2,680
  2,853
  3,034
  3,221
  3,416
  3,620
  3,832
  4,053
  4,284
  4,525
  4,777
  5,040
  5,315
Operating income, $m
  39
  65
  74
  83
  94
  105
  116
  128
  141
  154
  168
  184
  199
  214
  230
  247
  264
  282
  301
  321
  341
  362
  384
  407
  430
  455
  481
  508
  537
  566
  597
EBITDA, $m
  47
  74
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  144
  158
  173
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  273
  292
  312
  333
  354
  377
  400
  424
  449
  476
  503
  532
  562
  593
  626
  660
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  110
  122
  133
  145
  158
  173
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  264
  281
  299
  317
  337
  357
  378
  400
  423
  447
  471
  498
  525
  553
Tax expense, $m
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
Net income, $m
  25
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  232
  246
  260
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  319
  320
  364
  411
  460
  513
  568
  625
  686
  748
  814
  882
  953
  1,027
  1,104
  1,183
  1,266
  1,352
  1,442
  1,535
  1,632
  1,732
  1,837
  1,947
  2,061
  2,180
  2,304
  2,434
  2,569
  2,711
  2,859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  279
  320
  364
  411
  460
  513
  568
  625
  686
  748
  814
  882
  953
  1,027
  1,104
  1,183
  1,266
  1,352
  1,442
  1,535
  1,632
  1,732
  1,837
  1,947
  2,061
  2,180
  2,304
  2,434
  2,569
  2,711
  2,859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.068
  2.069
  2.069
  2.066
  2.070
  2.066
  2.067
  2.069
  2.067
  2.070
  2.068
  2.069
  2.068
  2.068
  2.067
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.067
  2.068
  2.067
  2.069
  2.069
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
  2.068
Average production assets, $m
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  94
  102
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  223
  236
  251
  266
  281
  298
  314
  332
  351
  370
  390
Working capital, $m
  148
  131
  149
  168
  188
  210
  232
  256
  281
  306
  333
  361
  390
  421
  452
  485
  518
  554
  590
  628
  668
  709
  752
  797
  844
  893
  943
  997
  1,052
  1,110
  1,171
Total debt, $m
  48
  59
  77
  96
  117
  138
  161
  185
  209
  235
  262
  290
  320
  350
  382
  415
  449
  484
  521
  559
  599
  641
  684
  729
  776
  825
  876
  930
  986
  1,044
  1,105
Total liabilities, $m
  121
  132
  150
  169
  190
  211
  234
  258
  282
  308
  335
  363
  393
  423
  455
  488
  522
  557
  594
  632
  672
  714
  757
  802
  849
  898
  949
  1,003
  1,059
  1,117
  1,178
Total equity, $m
  198
  188
  214
  242
  271
  301
  334
  368
  403
  440
  479
  519
  561
  604
  649
  696
  745
  795
  848
  902
  959
  1,019
  1,080
  1,145
  1,212
  1,282
  1,355
  1,431
  1,511
  1,594
  1,681
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  319
  320
  364
  411
  461
  512
  568
  626
  685
  748
  814
  882
  954
  1,027
  1,104
  1,184
  1,267
  1,352
  1,442
  1,534
  1,631
  1,733
  1,837
  1,947
  2,061
  2,180
  2,304
  2,434
  2,570
  2,711
  2,859
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.242
  0.310
  0.360
  0.400
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.566
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588
  0.588

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  232
  246
  260
  276
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  28
  55
  62
  70
  78
  86
  95
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  109
  118
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
Free cash flow, $m
  -57
  27
  31
  36
  42
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  127
  137
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  205
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  309
  326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  48
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  48
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  43
  49
  56
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  234
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
  330
  348
  367
  387
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  24
  28
  33
  39
  44
  51
  57
  64
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  38
  37
  37
  36
  35
  33
  31
  29
  26
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hooker Furniture Corporation is a home furnishings marketing, design and logistics company offering sourcing of residential casegoods and upholstery, as well as domestically-produced leather and fabric-upholstered furniture. The Company operates through three segments: casegoods furniture, upholstered furniture and all other. The Company's casegoods product categories include accents, home office, dining, bedroom and home entertainment furniture under the Hooker Furniture brand. Its residential upholstered seating companies include Bradington-Young, which is engaged in upscale motion and stationary leather furniture, and Sam Moore Furniture, which is engaged in upscale occasional chairs, settees, sofas and sectional seating with a focus on cover-to-frame customization. It also markets a line of imported leather upholstery under the Hooker Upholstery trade name. All other segment operates under the H Contract and Homeware brands.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hooker Furniture (HOFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 133.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.2%
Total Debt to Equity 24.2%
Interest Coverage 40
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Return On Equity 14.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Operating Margin 6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 20%

HOFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HOFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $577 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hooker Furniture. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Hooker Furniture. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HOFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HOFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hooker Furniture, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hooker Furniture.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HOFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HOFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Hooker Furniture.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hooker Furniture. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HOFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HOFT are equal to 6.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hooker Furniture operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HOFT is equal to 19.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $198 million for Hooker Furniture - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.586 million for Hooker Furniture is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hooker Furniture at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hooker Furniture posts 3Q profit   [08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 Best Contemporary High End Modern Furniture Brands in USA   [Nov-06-17 10:00AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ At $45.55, Is Hooker Furniture Corporation (HOFT) A Buy?   [Sep-21-17 12:09PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Thinly Traded Furniture Stock With 94% Growth Crafts New Base   [Sep-08-17 11:57AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 2Q profit   [Sep-07-17 11:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-30-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Jeremy Hoff Named President of Hooker Upholstery   [Aug-10-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 1Q profit   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture to Host First Quarter Earnings Call June 6   [May-16-17 03:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture posts 4Q profit   [08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-01-17 10:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture Corporation Promotes George Revington   [Jan-25-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Fans of Hooker Furniture Corporation (HOFT)   [Dec-09-16 07:42PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Sprint, SunPower, and Hooker Furniture Jumped Today   [Dec-07-16 06:43PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Increased Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-29-16 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hooker Furniture Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-01-16 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of HOFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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