Intrinsic value of Hornbeck Offshore Services - HOS

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$3.36

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$3.36

 
Intrinsic value

$9.45

 
Up/down potential

+181%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HOS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -52.94
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  224
  228
  234
  240
  246
  254
  262
  271
  281
  291
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  370
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  529
  554
  581
  608
  638
  668
  701
  735
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  262
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  419
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  486
  499
  511
  524
  537
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  302
  310
  318
  326
  334
  343
  351
  361
  371
  381
  391
  401
  412
  424
  435
  447
  460
  472
  486
  499
  514
  529
  544
  559
  576
  592
  610
  627
  646
  665
Operating income, $m
  -64
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -80
  -80
  -80
  -79
  -78
  -76
  -74
  -72
  -68
  -65
  -61
  -56
  -51
  -45
  -38
  -31
  -23
  -15
  -5
  5
  16
  28
  41
  55
  70
EBITDA, $m
  49
  42
  42
  43
  45
  48
  52
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  91
  100
  111
  122
  134
  148
  162
  178
  194
  212
  232
  252
  274
  298
  323
  350
  378
  408
  441
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  167
  175
  185
  195
Earnings before tax, $m
  -109
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -139
  -142
  -144
  -146
  -148
  -150
  -152
  -153
  -154
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -154
  -153
  -152
  -150
  -148
  -145
  -142
  -139
  -134
  -130
  -125
Tax expense, $m
  -45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -64
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -139
  -142
  -144
  -146
  -148
  -150
  -152
  -153
  -154
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -154
  -153
  -152
  -150
  -148
  -145
  -142
  -139
  -134
  -130
  -125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,878
  2,720
  2,783
  2,854
  2,934
  3,023
  3,121
  3,227
  3,342
  3,466
  3,599
  3,742
  3,893
  4,055
  4,227
  4,409
  4,602
  4,807
  5,023
  5,252
  5,493
  5,748
  6,016
  6,299
  6,598
  6,912
  7,242
  7,590
  7,957
  8,342
  8,747
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,661
  2,720
  2,783
  2,854
  2,934
  3,023
  3,121
  3,227
  3,342
  3,466
  3,599
  3,742
  3,893
  4,055
  4,227
  4,409
  4,602
  4,807
  5,023
  5,252
  5,493
  5,748
  6,016
  6,299
  6,598
  6,912
  7,242
  7,590
  7,957
  8,342
  8,747
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  2,577
  2,628
  2,688
  2,758
  2,835
  2,921
  3,015
  3,118
  3,229
  3,349
  3,477
  3,615
  3,762
  3,918
  4,084
  4,260
  4,447
  4,644
  4,853
  5,074
  5,307
  5,553
  5,813
  6,086
  6,374
  6,678
  6,997
  7,334
  7,688
  8,060
  8,451
Working capital, $m
  226
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
Total debt, $m
  1,084
  1,116
  1,151
  1,190
  1,235
  1,284
  1,338
  1,397
  1,461
  1,529
  1,603
  1,682
  1,766
  1,856
  1,951
  2,052
  2,159
  2,272
  2,392
  2,519
  2,652
  2,793
  2,942
  3,099
  3,264
  3,438
  3,621
  3,814
  4,017
  4,231
  4,455
Total liabilities, $m
  1,475
  1,507
  1,542
  1,581
  1,626
  1,675
  1,729
  1,788
  1,852
  1,920
  1,994
  2,073
  2,157
  2,247
  2,342
  2,443
  2,550
  2,663
  2,783
  2,910
  3,043
  3,184
  3,333
  3,490
  3,655
  3,829
  4,012
  4,205
  4,408
  4,622
  4,846
Total equity, $m
  1,403
  1,213
  1,241
  1,273
  1,309
  1,348
  1,392
  1,439
  1,491
  1,546
  1,605
  1,669
  1,736
  1,809
  1,885
  1,967
  2,053
  2,144
  2,240
  2,342
  2,450
  2,564
  2,683
  2,810
  2,943
  3,083
  3,230
  3,385
  3,549
  3,721
  3,901
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,878
  2,720
  2,783
  2,854
  2,935
  3,023
  3,121
  3,227
  3,343
  3,466
  3,599
  3,742
  3,893
  4,056
  4,227
  4,410
  4,603
  4,807
  5,023
  5,252
  5,493
  5,748
  6,016
  6,300
  6,598
  6,912
  7,242
  7,590
  7,957
  8,343
  8,747
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.773
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446
  0.446

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -64
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -134
  -137
  -139
  -142
  -144
  -146
  -148
  -150
  -152
  -153
  -154
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -155
  -154
  -153
  -152
  -150
  -148
  -145
  -142
  -139
  -134
  -130
  -125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  371
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  4
  9
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  48
  58
  68
  79
  90
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  203
  224
  246
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  53
  -7
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -3
  0
  4
  8
  13
  19
  25
  32
  39
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  116
  131
  147
  164
  182
  201
  222
  245
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -113
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -354
New CAPEX, $m
  -98
  -51
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -137
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -303
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -392
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -321
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -503
  -528
  -555
  -583
  -613
  -643
  -676
  -709
  -746
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -171
  -185
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -282
  -292
  -303
  -313
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -356
  -367
  -378
  -389
  -401
  -412
  -424
  -436
  -449
  -461
  -474
  -487
  -500
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  32
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  225
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  178
  189
  199
  210
  219
  229
  239
  248
  257
  267
  276
  285
  295
  304
  313
  323
  332
  342
  352
  362
  372
  382
  392
  402
  413
  424
  435
  446
  457
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  32
  213
  229
  243
  259
  273
  288
  303
  317
  331
  346
  360
  375
  390
  405
  420
  436
  452
  469
  486
  503
  521
  539
  557
  576
  596
  617
  638
  659
  682
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -43
  -140
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -176
  -182
  -187
  -193
  -198
  -203
  -208
  -213
  -218
  -223
  -227
  -232
  -236
  -240
  -244
  -248
  -252
  -256
  -259
  -262
  -266
  -268
  -271
  -274
  -276
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  43
  -27
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  82.6
  67.9
  55.4
  45.1
  36.6
  29.6
  24.0
  19.4
  15.6
  12.6
  10.2
  8.3
  6.7
  5.5
  4.5
  3.6
  3.0
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3

Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation, subsea installation, and accommodation support services to exploration and production, oilfield service, offshore construction, and the U.S. military customers. It operates offshore supply vessels (OSVs), multi-purpose support vessels (MPSVs), and a shore-based facility to provide logistics support and specialty services to the offshore oil and gas exploration and production industry in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Latin America, and internationally. Its fleet of U.S.-flagged OSVs and MPSVs support deep-well, deepwater, and ultra-deepwater activities of the offshore oil and gas industry, such as exploration, field development, production, construction, installation, inspection, repair, maintenance, well-stimulation, and other enhanced oil recovery. The company also provides vessel management services, such as crewing, daily operational management, and maintenance activities for other vessels owners. As of December 31, 2015, it owned and operated 62 OSVs and 6 MPSVs. Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Covington, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -52.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -29%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 77.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 24.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.7%
Operating Margin -29%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -48.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 41.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

HOS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HOS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $224 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hornbeck Offshore Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hornbeck Offshore Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HOS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for HOS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hornbeck Offshore Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hornbeck Offshore Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HOS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $256 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HOS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Hornbeck Offshore Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hornbeck Offshore Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HOS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HOS are equal to 1150.2%.

Life of production assets of 22.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hornbeck Offshore Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HOS is equal to 4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1403 million for Hornbeck Offshore Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.138 million for Hornbeck Offshore Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hornbeck Offshore Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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Stock chart of HOS Financial statements of HOS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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