Intrinsic value of Helmerich&Payne - HP

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$53.67

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$53.67

 
Intrinsic value

$30.26

 
Up/down potential

-44%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -48.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,624
  1,656
  1,695
  1,738
  1,787
  1,841
  1,901
  1,965
  2,035
  2,111
  2,192
  2,279
  2,371
  2,470
  2,574
  2,685
  2,803
  2,927
  3,059
  3,198
  3,345
  3,500
  3,664
  3,836
  4,018
  4,209
  4,411
  4,623
  4,846
  5,080
  5,327
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  904
  925
  949
  976
  1,005
  1,038
  1,073
  1,111
  1,153
  1,197
  1,244
  1,295
  1,348
  1,406
  1,466
  1,530
  1,598
  1,670
  1,746
  1,827
  1,911
  2,001
  2,095
  2,194
  2,298
  2,408
  2,524
  2,646
  2,774
  2,909
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  802
  822
  842
  863
  885
  907
  930
  953
  977
  1,001
  1,026
  1,052
  1,078
  1,105
  1,133
  1,161
  1,190
  1,220
  1,250
  1,281
  1,313
  1,346
  1,380
  1,414
  1,450
  1,486
  1,523
  1,561
  1,600
  1,640
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,650
  1,706
  1,747
  1,791
  1,839
  1,890
  1,945
  2,003
  2,064
  2,130
  2,198
  2,270
  2,347
  2,426
  2,511
  2,599
  2,691
  2,788
  2,890
  2,996
  3,108
  3,224
  3,347
  3,475
  3,608
  3,748
  3,894
  4,047
  4,207
  4,374
  4,549
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -52
  -49
  -44
  -37
  -29
  -18
  -6
  8
  25
  43
  64
  87
  112
  139
  169
  202
  237
  276
  317
  362
  410
  461
  516
  575
  639
  706
  778
EBITDA, $m
  573
  469
  478
  491
  507
  527
  551
  578
  608
  642
  680
  722
  767
  816
  869
  927
  989
  1,055
  1,127
  1,203
  1,284
  1,371
  1,464
  1,563
  1,667
  1,779
  1,897
  2,022
  2,155
  2,296
  2,446
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  85
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  226
  241
  258
  275
  293
Earnings before tax, $m
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -88
  -88
  -88
  -86
  -82
  -77
  -70
  -62
  -53
  -41
  -28
  -14
  3
  21
  42
  64
  89
  116
  146
  178
  212
  250
  290
  334
  381
  431
  485
Tax expense, $m
  -20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  6
  11
  17
  24
  31
  39
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  131
Net income, $m
  -57
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -88
  -88
  -88
  -86
  -82
  -77
  -70
  -62
  -53
  -41
  -28
  -14
  2
  16
  31
  47
  65
  85
  106
  130
  155
  182
  212
  244
  278
  315
  354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  950
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,832
  6,002
  6,140
  6,298
  6,475
  6,671
  6,886
  7,121
  7,375
  7,648
  7,942
  8,256
  8,591
  8,948
  9,327
  9,729
  10,155
  10,607
  11,084
  11,588
  12,121
  12,683
  13,275
  13,900
  14,558
  15,251
  15,980
  16,749
  17,557
  18,407
  19,301
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,882
  6,002
  6,140
  6,298
  6,475
  6,671
  6,886
  7,121
  7,375
  7,648
  7,942
  8,256
  8,591
  8,948
  9,327
  9,729
  10,155
  10,607
  11,084
  11,588
  12,121
  12,683
  13,275
  13,900
  14,558
  15,251
  15,980
  16,749
  17,557
  18,407
  19,301
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
Average production assets, $m
  2,541
  2,592
  2,652
  2,720
  2,797
  2,881
  2,975
  3,076
  3,185
  3,304
  3,430
  3,566
  3,711
  3,865
  4,029
  4,202
  4,387
  4,582
  4,788
  5,005
  5,235
  5,478
  5,734
  6,004
  6,288
  6,587
  6,903
  7,234
  7,583
  7,951
  8,337
Working capital, $m
  1,243
  298
  305
  313
  322
  331
  342
  354
  366
  380
  395
  410
  427
  445
  463
  483
  505
  527
  551
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  723
  758
  794
  832
  872
  914
  959
Total debt, $m
  492
  538
  591
  652
  720
  796
  879
  970
  1,068
  1,173
  1,287
  1,408
  1,537
  1,675
  1,821
  1,976
  2,141
  2,315
  2,499
  2,694
  2,900
  3,117
  3,345
  3,586
  3,840
  4,108
  4,389
  4,686
  4,998
  5,326
  5,671
Total liabilities, $m
  2,271
  2,317
  2,370
  2,431
  2,499
  2,575
  2,658
  2,749
  2,847
  2,952
  3,066
  3,187
  3,316
  3,454
  3,600
  3,755
  3,920
  4,094
  4,278
  4,473
  4,679
  4,896
  5,124
  5,365
  5,619
  5,887
  6,168
  6,465
  6,777
  7,105
  7,450
Total equity, $m
  4,561
  3,685
  3,770
  3,867
  3,975
  4,096
  4,228
  4,372
  4,528
  4,696
  4,876
  5,069
  5,275
  5,494
  5,727
  5,974
  6,235
  6,513
  6,806
  7,115
  7,442
  7,787
  8,151
  8,534
  8,938
  9,364
  9,812
  10,284
  10,780
  11,302
  11,851
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,832
  6,002
  6,140
  6,298
  6,474
  6,671
  6,886
  7,121
  7,375
  7,648
  7,942
  8,256
  8,591
  8,948
  9,327
  9,729
  10,155
  10,607
  11,084
  11,588
  12,121
  12,683
  13,275
  13,899
  14,557
  15,251
  15,980
  16,749
  17,557
  18,407
  19,301
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.108
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614
  0.614

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -57
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -88
  -88
  -88
  -86
  -82
  -77
  -70
  -62
  -53
  -41
  -28
  -14
  2
  16
  31
  47
  65
  85
  106
  130
  155
  182
  212
  244
  278
  315
  354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  599
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  661
  686
  713
  742
  773
  806
  840
  877
  916
  958
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,317
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
Funds from operations, $m
  848
  442
  449
  459
  472
  488
  507
  530
  555
  584
  616
  651
  689
  732
  777
  827
  879
  932
  988
  1,048
  1,112
  1,181
  1,253
  1,331
  1,413
  1,500
  1,593
  1,691
  1,795
  1,905
  2,022
Change in working capital, $m
  94
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  754
  2,977
  442
  451
  463
  478
  496
  518
  542
  570
  601
  635
  673
  714
  759
  807
  858
  910
  964
  1,023
  1,086
  1,153
  1,224
  1,300
  1,380
  1,466
  1,556
  1,653
  1,755
  1,863
  1,977
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -508
  -518
  -530
  -544
  -559
  -576
  -595
  -615
  -637
  -661
  -686
  -713
  -742
  -773
  -806
  -840
  -877
  -916
  -958
  -1,001
  -1,047
  -1,096
  -1,147
  -1,201
  -1,258
  -1,317
  -1,381
  -1,447
  -1,517
  -1,590
New CAPEX, $m
  -257
  -51
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -559
  -578
  -598
  -621
  -644
  -669
  -696
  -725
  -755
  -788
  -822
  -858
  -896
  -937
  -980
  -1,024
  -1,072
  -1,122
  -1,176
  -1,231
  -1,290
  -1,352
  -1,417
  -1,485
  -1,557
  -1,632
  -1,713
  -1,796
  -1,884
  -1,976
Free cash flow, $m
  520
  2,417
  -136
  -148
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -178
  -182
  -185
  -186
  -186
  -185
  -182
  -178
  -173
  -166
  -163
  -158
  -152
  -145
  -137
  -128
  -117
  -105
  -91
  -76
  -60
  -41
  -21
  1
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -40
  46
  53
  61
  68
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  146
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  296
  312
  328
  345
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  168
  184
  198
  211
  222
  232
  240
  247
  253
  258
  261
  264
  265
  264
  264
  266
  267
  267
  267
  265
  263
  259
  255
  249
  243
  235
  226
  215
  203
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -43
  46
  221
  245
  266
  287
  305
  323
  338
  353
  366
  379
  390
  402
  411
  419
  429
  440
  451
  462
  473
  482
  492
  500
  509
  517
  525
  531
  538
  543
  548
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  476
  2,463
  -83
  -87
  -89
  -90
  -90
  -88
  -84
  -79
  -73
  -65
  -56
  -45
  -32
  -17
  -2
  11
  26
  42
  60
  80
  101
  124
  149
  176
  205
  237
  271
  307
  346
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  335
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -293
  -310
  -327
  -345
  -364
  -383
  -404
  -426
  -448
  -472
  -496
  -522
  -549
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  950
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3,339
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3,201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  96.5
  92.8
  89.2
  85.5
  82.0
  78.5
  75.2
  72.0
  69.0
  66.2
  63.6
  61.1
  58.8
  56.7
  54.8
  53.0
  51.3
  49.7
  48.3
  46.9
  45.7
  44.5
  43.5
  42.6
  41.7
  40.9
  40.2
  39.6
  39.0

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. engages in the contract drilling of oil and gas wells. It provides drilling rigs, equipment, personnel, and camps on a contract basis to explore for and develop oil and gas from onshore areas and from fixed platforms, tension-leg platforms, and spars in offshore areas. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Land, Offshore, and International Land. The U.S. Land segment drills primarily in Oklahoma, California, Texas, Wyoming, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Mexico, and North Dakota. The Offshore segment has drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico and Equatorial Guinea. The International Land segment conducts drilling operations in Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. As of September 30, 2016, the company operated a fleet of 348 land rigs in the United States; 38 international land rigs; and 9 offshore platform rigs. The company also owns, develops, and operates commercial real estate properties; and researches and develops rotary steerable technology. Its real estate investments include a shopping center comprising approximately 441,000 leasable square feet; multi-tenant industrial warehouse properties covering approximately one million leasable square feet; and approximately 210 acres of undeveloped real estate located in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Helmerich&Payne (HP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -101.8
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -48.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -77.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 10.8%
Total Debt to Equity 10.8%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity -1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 44.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.6%
EBITDA Margin 34.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Operating Margin -1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Net Profit Margin -3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio -526.3%

HP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1624 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Helmerich&Payne. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Helmerich&Payne. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Helmerich&Payne, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Helmerich&Payne.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $782 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Helmerich&Payne.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Helmerich&Payne. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HP are equal to 156.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Helmerich&Payne operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HP is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4561 million for Helmerich&Payne - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 105.782 million for Helmerich&Payne is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Helmerich&Payne at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.7 billion.


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Stock chart of HP Financial statements of HP Annual reports of HP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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