Intrinsic value of Hospitality Properties Trust - HPT

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$30.11

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HPT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HPT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.50
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  2,047
  2,043
  2,169
  2,300
  2,437
  2,580
  2,729
  2,884
  3,046
  3,215
  3,392
  3,577
  3,771
  3,973
  4,185
  4,407
  4,639
  4,882
  5,137
  5,404
  5,683
  5,976
  6,284
  6,606
  6,944
  7,298
  7,670
  8,060
  8,469
  8,898
  9,349
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,645
  1,746
  1,852
  1,962
  2,077
  2,197
  2,322
  2,452
  2,588
  2,731
  2,880
  3,036
  3,199
  3,369
  3,547
  3,734
  3,930
  4,135
  4,350
  4,575
  4,811
  5,058
  5,318
  5,590
  5,875
  6,174
  6,488
  6,818
  7,163
  7,526
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,661
  1,645
  1,746
  1,852
  1,962
  2,077
  2,197
  2,322
  2,452
  2,588
  2,731
  2,880
  3,036
  3,199
  3,369
  3,547
  3,734
  3,930
  4,135
  4,350
  4,575
  4,811
  5,058
  5,318
  5,590
  5,875
  6,174
  6,488
  6,818
  7,163
  7,526
Operating income, $m
  387
  398
  423
  449
  475
  503
  532
  562
  594
  627
  662
  698
  735
  775
  816
  859
  905
  952
  1,002
  1,054
  1,108
  1,165
  1,225
  1,288
  1,354
  1,423
  1,496
  1,572
  1,651
  1,735
  1,823
EBITDA, $m
  744
  750
  796
  844
  894
  947
  1,001
  1,058
  1,118
  1,180
  1,245
  1,313
  1,384
  1,458
  1,536
  1,617
  1,702
  1,792
  1,885
  1,983
  2,086
  2,193
  2,306
  2,424
  2,548
  2,678
  2,815
  2,958
  3,108
  3,265
  3,431
Interest expense (income), $m
  146
  147
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
  320
  338
  356
  376
  396
  418
  440
  464
  488
  514
  541
  570
  599
  631
  663
  698
  734
Earnings before tax, $m
  227
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  385
  405
  426
  449
  472
  496
  522
  548
  576
  605
  636
  668
  702
  737
  774
  813
  854
  896
  941
  988
  1,037
  1,089
Tax expense, $m
  4
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  163
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
Net income, $m
  223
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  464
  488
  512
  538
  565
  593
  623
  654
  687
  721
  757
  795

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,634
  6,788
  7,206
  7,643
  8,097
  8,571
  9,066
  9,581
  10,120
  10,683
  11,271
  11,885
  12,528
  13,200
  13,904
  14,641
  15,412
  16,220
  17,066
  17,952
  18,881
  19,855
  20,876
  21,947
  23,069
  24,247
  25,482
  26,777
  28,136
  29,562
  31,059
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,623
  6,788
  7,206
  7,643
  8,097
  8,571
  9,066
  9,581
  10,120
  10,683
  11,271
  11,885
  12,528
  13,200
  13,904
  14,641
  15,412
  16,220
  17,066
  17,952
  18,881
  19,855
  20,876
  21,947
  23,069
  24,247
  25,482
  26,777
  28,136
  29,562
  31,059
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.309
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
Average production assets, $m
  6,183
  6,289
  6,677
  7,081
  7,502
  7,941
  8,399
  8,877
  9,376
  9,897
  10,442
  11,011
  11,607
  12,230
  12,882
  13,564
  14,279
  15,027
  15,811
  16,632
  17,493
  18,395
  19,341
  20,333
  21,373
  22,464
  23,608
  24,809
  26,068
  27,389
  28,775
Working capital, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Total debt, $m
  3,164
  3,507
  3,742
  3,987
  4,243
  4,509
  4,787
  5,077
  5,379
  5,696
  6,026
  6,372
  6,733
  7,111
  7,506
  7,920
  8,353
  8,807
  9,283
  9,781
  10,303
  10,851
  11,424
  12,026
  12,657
  13,319
  14,013
  14,741
  15,505
  16,306
  17,147
Total liabilities, $m
  3,505
  3,815
  4,050
  4,295
  4,551
  4,817
  5,095
  5,385
  5,687
  6,004
  6,334
  6,680
  7,041
  7,419
  7,814
  8,228
  8,661
  9,115
  9,591
  10,089
  10,611
  11,159
  11,732
  12,334
  12,965
  13,627
  14,321
  15,049
  15,813
  16,614
  17,455
Total equity, $m
  3,129
  2,973
  3,156
  3,347
  3,547
  3,754
  3,971
  4,197
  4,433
  4,679
  4,937
  5,206
  5,487
  5,782
  6,090
  6,413
  6,750
  7,104
  7,475
  7,863
  8,270
  8,697
  9,144
  9,613
  10,104
  10,620
  11,161
  11,728
  12,324
  12,948
  13,604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,634
  6,788
  7,206
  7,642
  8,098
  8,571
  9,066
  9,582
  10,120
  10,683
  11,271
  11,886
  12,528
  13,201
  13,904
  14,641
  15,411
  16,219
  17,066
  17,952
  18,881
  19,856
  20,876
  21,947
  23,069
  24,247
  25,482
  26,777
  28,137
  29,562
  31,059
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.011
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.471
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438
  0.438

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  223
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  464
  488
  512
  538
  565
  593
  623
  654
  687
  721
  757
  795
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  357
  351
  373
  396
  419
  444
  469
  496
  524
  553
  583
  615
  648
  683
  720
  758
  798
  839
  883
  929
  977
  1,028
  1,081
  1,136
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,386
  1,456
  1,530
  1,608
Funds from operations, $m
  532
  535
  567
  600
  635
  672
  710
  749
  791
  834
  879
  926
  976
  1,028
  1,082
  1,139
  1,198
  1,260
  1,325
  1,393
  1,465
  1,540
  1,619
  1,701
  1,787
  1,878
  1,973
  2,073
  2,178
  2,287
  2,403
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  533
  664
  567
  601
  636
  673
  711
  750
  792
  835
  880
  928
  977
  1,029
  1,083
  1,140
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,395
  1,467
  1,542
  1,621
  1,703
  1,790
  1,881
  1,976
  2,076
  2,181
  2,290
  2,406
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -331
  -351
  -373
  -396
  -419
  -444
  -469
  -496
  -524
  -553
  -583
  -615
  -648
  -683
  -720
  -758
  -798
  -839
  -883
  -929
  -977
  -1,028
  -1,081
  -1,136
  -1,194
  -1,255
  -1,319
  -1,386
  -1,456
  -1,530
New CAPEX, $m
  -454
  -373
  -388
  -404
  -421
  -439
  -458
  -478
  -499
  -521
  -545
  -569
  -595
  -623
  -652
  -682
  -715
  -748
  -784
  -821
  -861
  -902
  -946
  -992
  -1,040
  -1,091
  -1,144
  -1,200
  -1,259
  -1,321
  -1,386
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -454
  -704
  -739
  -777
  -817
  -858
  -902
  -947
  -995
  -1,045
  -1,098
  -1,152
  -1,210
  -1,271
  -1,335
  -1,402
  -1,473
  -1,546
  -1,623
  -1,704
  -1,790
  -1,879
  -1,974
  -2,073
  -2,176
  -2,285
  -2,399
  -2,519
  -2,645
  -2,777
  -2,916
Free cash flow, $m
  79
  -39
  -172
  -176
  -181
  -186
  -191
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -217
  -225
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -353
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -487
  -510
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -111
  232
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  361
  378
  395
  414
  433
  454
  476
  498
  522
  547
  574
  602
  631
  662
  694
  728
  764
  801
  841
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  371
  0
  120
  122
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  254
  232
  355
  367
  379
  393
  408
  423
  439
  456
  474
  494
  515
  537
  560
  585
  610
  638
  668
  697
  730
  764
  800
  838
  878
  920
  964
  1,011
  1,060
  1,111
  1,166
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  332
  193
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  257
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -317
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -388
  -407
  -427
  -447
  -469
  -492
  -516
  -541
  -567
  -595
  -625
  -655
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.7
  95.6
  93.6
  91.7
  89.9
  88.2
  86.6
  85.0
  83.5
  82.1
  80.7
  79.4
  78.1
  76.8
  75.6
  74.5
  73.3
  72.2
  71.1
  70.1
  69.0
  68.0
  67.0
  66.0
  65.1
  64.1
  63.2
  62.3
  61.4

Hospitality Properties Trust is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets across United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. The firm primarily invests in hotel and travel centers. Hospitality Properties Trust was formed in 1995 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 62.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 101.1%
Total Debt to Equity 101.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.7%
EBITDA Margin 35.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 1.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Payout Ratio 150.2%

HPT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HPT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1922 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hospitality Properties Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hospitality Properties Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HPT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for HPT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hospitality Properties Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hospitality Properties Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HPT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HPT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Hospitality Properties Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hospitality Properties Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HPT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HPT are equal to 307.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hospitality Properties Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HPT is equal to -0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2812 million for Hospitality Properties Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 161.563 million for Hospitality Properties Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hospitality Properties Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ REITs Will Be All Right Despite Rising Rates   [Mar-09-17 03:03PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Hospitality Properties Trust Declares Preferred Dividend   [Dec-01-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ The Top 3 Hotel REIT ETFs of 2016 (HPT, INN)   [Sep-02-16 03:00PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Hospitality Properties Trust Declares Preferred Dividend   [Sep-01-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ 4 Brexit Bargains With Big Dividends   [Jul-01-16 11:37AM  at Forbes]
▶ Hospitality Properties Trust Declares Preferred Dividend   [Jun-01-16 04:01PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of HPT Financial statements of HPT Annual reports of HPT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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