Intrinsic value of Hanwha Q CELLS ADR - HQCL

Previous Close

$7.35

  Intrinsic Value

$12.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+66%

Previous close

$7.35

 
Intrinsic value

$12.18

 
Up/down potential

+66%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of HQCL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.70
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,426
  2,475
  2,531
  2,596
  2,670
  2,750
  2,839
  2,936
  3,041
  3,153
  3,274
  3,404
  3,542
  3,689
  3,845
  4,011
  4,187
  4,373
  4,570
  4,778
  4,997
  5,229
  5,473
  5,731
  6,002
  6,288
  6,589
  6,905
  7,239
  7,589
  7,958
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,217
  2,268
  2,326
  2,392
  2,464
  2,544
  2,631
  2,724
  2,825
  2,934
  3,050
  3,174
  3,305
  3,445
  3,594
  3,751
  3,918
  4,095
  4,281
  4,477
  4,685
  4,904
  5,135
  5,378
  5,634
  5,903
  6,187
  6,486
  6,800
  7,130
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,234
  2,281
  2,333
  2,393
  2,460
  2,534
  2,616
  2,705
  2,800
  2,902
  3,013
  3,131
  3,257
  3,390
  3,533
  3,684
  3,843
  4,012
  4,192
  4,380
  4,579
  4,789
  5,011
  5,244
  5,490
  5,749
  6,021
  6,308
  6,610
  6,927
  7,260
Operating income, $m
  192
  194
  198
  203
  209
  216
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  539
  568
  598
  629
  663
  698
EBITDA, $m
  286
  290
  296
  304
  313
  323
  333
  345
  359
  373
  388
  405
  422
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
  612
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
  910
  957
  1,006
Interest expense (income), $m
  55
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
Earnings before tax, $m
  123
  155
  158
  162
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  362
  380
  399
  419
  441
  463
  487
  512
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
Net income, $m
  128
  114
  116
  118
  121
  125
  128
  133
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  240
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  390
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,209
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,001
  2,062
  2,128
  2,201
  2,279
  2,364
  2,455
  2,552
  2,655
  2,765
  2,883
  3,007
  3,139
  3,278
  3,426
  3,582
  3,746
  3,920
  4,103
  4,296
  4,499
  4,714
  4,939
  5,176
  5,426
  5,689
  5,965
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,819
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,001
  2,062
  2,128
  2,201
  2,279
  2,364
  2,455
  2,552
  2,655
  2,765
  2,883
  3,007
  3,139
  3,278
  3,426
  3,582
  3,746
  3,920
  4,103
  4,296
  4,499
  4,714
  4,939
  5,176
  5,426
  5,689
  5,965
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
  1.334
Average production assets, $m
  883
  901
  921
  945
  972
  1,001
  1,033
  1,069
  1,107
  1,148
  1,192
  1,239
  1,289
  1,343
  1,400
  1,460
  1,524
  1,592
  1,663
  1,739
  1,819
  1,903
  1,992
  2,086
  2,185
  2,289
  2,398
  2,514
  2,635
  2,762
  2,897
Working capital, $m
  222
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  435
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  888
  931
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,178
Total debt, $m
  1,172
  810
  844
  881
  924
  971
  1,023
  1,079
  1,140
  1,205
  1,276
  1,351
  1,431
  1,517
  1,608
  1,704
  1,807
  1,915
  2,029
  2,150
  2,278
  2,413
  2,555
  2,705
  2,863
  3,029
  3,204
  3,388
  3,582
  3,786
  4,000
Total liabilities, $m
  1,801
  1,439
  1,473
  1,510
  1,553
  1,600
  1,652
  1,708
  1,769
  1,834
  1,905
  1,980
  2,060
  2,146
  2,237
  2,333
  2,436
  2,544
  2,658
  2,779
  2,907
  3,042
  3,184
  3,334
  3,492
  3,658
  3,833
  4,017
  4,211
  4,415
  4,629
Total equity, $m
  408
  416
  425
  436
  448
  462
  477
  493
  511
  530
  550
  572
  595
  619
  646
  674
  703
  734
  767
  802
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,160
  1,215
  1,274
  1,336
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,209
  1,855
  1,898
  1,946
  2,001
  2,062
  2,129
  2,201
  2,280
  2,364
  2,455
  2,552
  2,655
  2,765
  2,883
  3,007
  3,139
  3,278
  3,425
  3,581
  3,746
  3,920
  4,103
  4,296
  4,500
  4,714
  4,939
  5,177
  5,426
  5,689
  5,965
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.873
  1.950
  1.980
  2.020
  2.060
  2.100
  2.140
  2.190
  2.230
  2.280
  2.320
  2.360
  2.410
  2.450
  2.490
  2.530
  2.570
  2.610
  2.640
  2.680
  2.710
  2.750
  2.780
  2.810
  2.840
  2.870
  2.900
  2.920
  2.950
  2.970
  2.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.217
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224
  0.224

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  128
  114
  116
  118
  121
  125
  128
  133
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  240
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  209
  214
  219
  225
  231
  238
  246
  255
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  486
  510
  535
  561
  589
  619
  650
  682
Change in working capital, $m
  -106
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
Cash from operations, $m
  137
  202
  205
  209
  214
  219
  225
  232
  239
  248
  257
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  427
  448
  470
  492
  517
  542
  569
  598
  628
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -94
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -408
  -428
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  90
  89
  88
  87
  86
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  117
  28
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  117
  28
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  190
  119
  122
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  339
  356
  374
  394
  414
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  111
  112
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  136
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  188
  196
  206
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  303
  318
  335
  352
Discount rate, %
 
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  97
  91
  85
  79
  73
  67
  61
  55
  49
  44
  38
  33
  28
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hanwha Q CELLS Co., Ltd., formerly Hanwha SolarOne Co., Ltd., is a global solar energy company engaged in the manufacturing of solar modules, and the development and management of downstream solar farms. It manufactures a range of photo voltaic (PV) cells and PV modules at its manufacturing facilities in China and Malaysia using manufacturing process technologies, including those developed at its research and development facilities in Germany. It also engages in PV downstream businesses, which include developing solar power projects and providing engineering, procurement and construction services, and operation and management services. It develops and builds solar power projects incorporating its PV modules to sells them to third-party purchasers upon completion. Its principal products include PV modules, PV cells, silicon ingots and silicon wafers. It sells a range of PV modules, ranging from 250 watts to 340 watts in power output specification.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hanwha Q CELLS ADR (HQCL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 238.9
Price to Sales 12.6
Price to Book 75
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 223.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 223.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 157.8%
Total Debt to Equity 287.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity 34.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin 7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Effective Tax Rate -4.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

HQCL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HQCL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2426 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hanwha Q CELLS ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hanwha Q CELLS ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HQCL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for HQCL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hanwha Q CELLS ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hanwha Q CELLS ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HQCL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $62 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HQCL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Hanwha Q CELLS ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hanwha Q CELLS ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HQCL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HQCL are equal to 36.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hanwha Q CELLS ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HQCL is equal to 14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $408 million for Hanwha Q CELLS ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.622 million for Hanwha Q CELLS ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hanwha Q CELLS ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hanwha Q CELLS Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-10-17 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanwha Q CELLS Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-10-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Solar Manufacturers Face a Tough Market in 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hanwha Q CELLS Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-25-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hanwha Q CELLS Files its 2016 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [May-01-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Chinese Solar Manufacturers Are Their Own Worst Enemies   [Mar-28-17 03:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hanwha Q CELLS to Attend 29th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-06-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Solar Stocks to Watch in 2016   [Jul-26-16 08:08AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Storm Damage Could Impact on Canadian Solar's Bottom Line   [Jun-28-16 05:36PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 2 Cheap Tech Stocks You Can Buy Today   [03:38PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ HANWHA Q CELLS CO., LTD. Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Hanwha Q CELLS Files its 2015 Annual Report on Form 20-F   [Apr-27-16 05:20PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of HQCL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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