Intrinsic value of H&R Block - HRB

Previous Close

$30.22

  Intrinsic Value

$39.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

  Value-price divergence*

-80%

Previous close

$30.22

 
Intrinsic value

$39.30

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-80%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HRB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,038
  3,099
  3,170
  3,252
  3,343
  3,444
  3,556
  3,677
  3,808
  3,949
  4,100
  4,263
  4,436
  4,620
  4,816
  5,023
  5,243
  5,476
  5,723
  5,983
  6,258
  6,548
  6,854
  7,177
  7,516
  7,874
  8,251
  8,647
  9,065
  9,504
  9,965
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,298
  2,350
  2,409
  2,476
  2,549
  2,630
  2,718
  2,813
  2,916
  3,026
  3,097
  3,222
  3,356
  3,498
  3,649
  3,809
  3,979
  4,158
  4,347
  4,546
  4,757
  4,979
  5,214
  5,461
  5,721
  5,994
  6,282
  6,585
  6,904
  7,240
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,407
  2,298
  2,350
  2,409
  2,476
  2,549
  2,630
  2,718
  2,813
  2,916
  3,026
  3,097
  3,222
  3,356
  3,498
  3,649
  3,809
  3,979
  4,158
  4,347
  4,546
  4,757
  4,979
  5,214
  5,461
  5,721
  5,994
  6,282
  6,585
  6,904
  7,240
Operating income, $m
  631
  800
  820
  842
  867
  895
  925
  958
  994
  1,033
  1,074
  1,166
  1,213
  1,264
  1,317
  1,374
  1,434
  1,498
  1,565
  1,636
  1,712
  1,791
  1,875
  1,963
  2,056
  2,154
  2,257
  2,365
  2,479
  2,599
  2,726
EBITDA, $m
  805
  923
  944
  968
  995
  1,025
  1,058
  1,095
  1,134
  1,176
  1,221
  1,269
  1,320
  1,375
  1,434
  1,495
  1,561
  1,630
  1,704
  1,781
  1,863
  1,949
  2,040
  2,136
  2,238
  2,344
  2,456
  2,574
  2,699
  2,829
  2,967
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  88
  76
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  134
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  194
  206
  219
  233
  247
  263
  279
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
  394
Earnings before tax, $m
  569
  712
  744
  763
  784
  807
  833
  860
  890
  922
  956
  1,040
  1,080
  1,121
  1,166
  1,213
  1,263
  1,315
  1,371
  1,430
  1,492
  1,558
  1,627
  1,700
  1,777
  1,858
  1,943
  2,033
  2,127
  2,227
  2,331
Tax expense, $m
  185
  192
  201
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  281
  291
  303
  315
  327
  341
  355
  370
  386
  403
  421
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  574
  601
  629
Net income, $m
  374
  520
  543
  557
  572
  589
  608
  628
  650
  673
  698
  759
  788
  819
  851
  885
  922
  960
  1,001
  1,044
  1,089
  1,137
  1,188
  1,241
  1,297
  1,356
  1,419
  1,484
  1,553
  1,626
  1,702

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  898
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,847
  2,904
  2,971
  3,047
  3,133
  3,228
  3,332
  3,446
  3,569
  3,701
  3,843
  3,995
  4,157
  4,330
  4,513
  4,708
  4,914
  5,133
  5,363
  5,607
  5,865
  6,137
  6,424
  6,726
  7,044
  7,380
  7,733
  8,104
  8,496
  8,907
  9,340
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,949
  2,904
  2,971
  3,047
  3,133
  3,228
  3,332
  3,446
  3,569
  3,701
  3,843
  3,995
  4,157
  4,330
  4,513
  4,708
  4,914
  5,133
  5,363
  5,607
  5,865
  6,137
  6,424
  6,726
  7,044
  7,380
  7,733
  8,104
  8,496
  8,907
  9,340
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.559
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
  1.067
Average production assets, $m
  736
  750
  767
  787
  809
  834
  860
  890
  921
  956
  992
  1,032
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,216
  1,269
  1,325
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,585
  1,659
  1,737
  1,819
  1,906
  1,997
  2,093
  2,194
  2,300
  2,412
Working capital, $m
  181
  -310
  -317
  -325
  -334
  -344
  -356
  -368
  -381
  -395
  -410
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -482
  -502
  -524
  -548
  -572
  -598
  -626
  -655
  -685
  -718
  -752
  -787
  -825
  -865
  -906
  -950
  -997
Total debt, $m
  1,492
  1,282
  1,342
  1,411
  1,488
  1,573
  1,667
  1,769
  1,880
  1,999
  2,127
  2,263
  2,409
  2,565
  2,730
  2,905
  3,091
  3,287
  3,495
  3,715
  3,947
  4,191
  4,449
  4,721
  5,008
  5,310
  5,628
  5,962
  6,314
  6,684
  7,074
Total liabilities, $m
  2,824
  2,614
  2,674
  2,743
  2,820
  2,905
  2,999
  3,101
  3,212
  3,331
  3,459
  3,595
  3,741
  3,897
  4,062
  4,237
  4,423
  4,619
  4,827
  5,047
  5,279
  5,523
  5,781
  6,053
  6,340
  6,642
  6,960
  7,294
  7,646
  8,016
  8,406
Total equity, $m
  23
  290
  297
  305
  313
  323
  333
  345
  357
  370
  384
  399
  416
  433
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  561
  587
  614
  642
  673
  704
  738
  773
  810
  850
  891
  934
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,847
  2,904
  2,971
  3,048
  3,133
  3,228
  3,332
  3,446
  3,569
  3,701
  3,843
  3,994
  4,157
  4,330
  4,513
  4,708
  4,914
  5,132
  5,363
  5,608
  5,866
  6,137
  6,423
  6,726
  7,044
  7,380
  7,733
  8,104
  8,496
  8,907
  9,340
Debt-to-equity ratio
  64.870
  4.410
  4.520
  4.630
  4.750
  4.870
  5.000
  5.130
  5.270
  5.400
  5.530
  5.670
  5.800
  5.920
  6.050
  6.170
  6.290
  6.400
  6.520
  6.620
  6.730
  6.830
  6.930
  7.020
  7.110
  7.200
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.500
  7.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.449
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  374
  520
  543
  557
  572
  589
  608
  628
  650
  673
  698
  759
  788
  819
  851
  885
  922
  960
  1,001
  1,044
  1,089
  1,137
  1,188
  1,241
  1,297
  1,356
  1,419
  1,484
  1,553
  1,626
  1,702
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  122
  124
  126
  128
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  146
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
Funds from operations, $m
  381
  642
  667
  683
  700
  720
  741
  764
  789
  816
  845
  863
  895
  930
  968
  1,007
  1,049
  1,093
  1,140
  1,189
  1,241
  1,296
  1,354
  1,415
  1,479
  1,547
  1,618
  1,693
  1,772
  1,856
  1,943
Change in working capital, $m
  -151
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from operations, $m
  532
  648
  674
  691
  709
  730
  752
  776
  802
  830
  860
  879
  913
  949
  987
  1,028
  1,071
  1,116
  1,164
  1,215
  1,268
  1,325
  1,384
  1,447
  1,513
  1,583
  1,656
  1,733
  1,814
  1,899
  1,989
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
New CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
Cash from investing activities, $m
  330
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -201
  -212
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -342
Free cash flow, $m
  862
  560
  582
  595
  609
  624
  642
  661
  681
  704
  727
  740
  768
  797
  828
  861
  896
  933
  972
  1,013
  1,057
  1,103
  1,152
  1,203
  1,257
  1,314
  1,374
  1,437
  1,504
  1,574
  1,647
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  997
  -210
  60
  69
  77
  85
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
  389
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1,993
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,760
  -210
  60
  69
  77
  85
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
  389
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -908
  350
  642
  663
  686
  710
  736
  763
  792
  823
  855
  877
  914
  952
  993
  1,036
  1,082
  1,129
  1,180
  1,233
  1,289
  1,348
  1,410
  1,475
  1,544
  1,616
  1,692
  1,772
  1,856
  1,944
  2,037
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1,810
  -267
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  83
  635
  656
  677
  700
  725
  752
  780
  809
  841
  862
  897
  935
  975
  1,017
  1,061
  1,108
  1,157
  1,209
  1,263
  1,321
  1,381
  1,445
  1,512
  1,583
  1,657
  1,735
  1,817
  1,903
  1,994
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  582
  571
  558
  543
  526
  508
  487
  465
  441
  409
  383
  356
  327
  298
  270
  241
  213
  186
  161
  137
  115
  95
  77
  62
  48
  37
  28
  21
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

H&R Block, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides tax preparation and other services to the general public primarily in the United States, Canada, and Australia. The company offers assisted income tax return preparation and related services through a system of retail offices operated directly by the company or by franchisees; and develops and markets do-it-yourself (DIY) online income tax preparation software solutions. It also provides a range of online tax services, including preparation of federal and state income tax returns; review of tax returns by a tax professional; access to tax tips, advice, and tax-related news; use of calculators for tax planning; and error checking and electronic filing. In addition, the company develops and markets DIY desktop income tax preparation software solutions through third-party retail stores and direct mail, as well as online; and develops and provides applications for mobile devices, which offer tax preparation and related services. Further, it provides refund anticipation checks, H&R Block Emerald Advance lines of credit and Prepaid MasterCard, Peace of Mind Extended Service Plan, Tax Identity Shield, and Cash Back refund discount programs. H&R Block, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  H&R Block (HRB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.8
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 289.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 898
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 6482.6%
Total Debt to Equity 6487%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Total Capital 19.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Return On Equity 40.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49%
EBITDA Margin 26.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Net Profit Margin 12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.9%
Payout Ratio 54%

HRB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HRB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3038 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by H&R Block. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of H&R Block. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HRB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HRB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of H&R Block, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of H&R Block.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HRB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HRB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for H&R Block.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for H&R Block. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HRB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HRB are equal to 24.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in H&R Block operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HRB is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $23 million for H&R Block - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 210.373 million for H&R Block is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of H&R Block at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.

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Stock chart of HRB Financial statements of HRB Annual reports of HRB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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