Intrinsic value of Heritage Insurance Holdings - HRTG

Previous Close

$15.87

  Intrinsic Value

$64.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+304%

Previous close

$15.87

 
Intrinsic value

$64.10

 
Up/down potential

+304%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HRTG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HRTG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  448
  458
  470
  483
  498
  514
  531
  550
  571
  593
  616
  641
  668
  696
  726
  758
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,037
  1,086
  1,138
  1,192
  1,250
  1,310
  1,373
  1,440
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  278
  284
  291
  299
  308
  318
  328
  340
  352
  366
  375
  391
  407
  424
  442
  462
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  632
  662
  694
  727
  762
  798
  837
  878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  382
  278
  284
  291
  299
  308
  318
  328
  340
  352
  366
  375
  391
  407
  424
  442
  462
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  632
  662
  694
  727
  762
  798
  837
  878
Operating income, $m
  57
  170
  174
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  218
  227
  241
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  353
  369
  387
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
EBITDA, $m
  66
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  56
  168
  171
  175
  180
  185
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  465
  487
  510
Tax expense, $m
  22
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
Net income, $m
  34
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,033
  1,054
  1,078
  1,106
  1,137
  1,171
  1,209
  1,250
  1,295
  1,343
  1,394
  1,449
  1,508
  1,571
  1,637
  1,708
  1,783
  1,862
  1,946
  2,034
  2,128
  2,226
  2,330
  2,440
  2,556
  2,677
  2,805
  2,940
  3,082
  3,231
  3,388
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,033
  1,054
  1,078
  1,106
  1,137
  1,171
  1,209
  1,250
  1,295
  1,343
  1,394
  1,449
  1,508
  1,571
  1,637
  1,708
  1,783
  1,862
  1,946
  2,034
  2,128
  2,226
  2,330
  2,440
  2,556
  2,677
  2,805
  2,940
  3,082
  3,231
  3,388
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
Average production assets, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  73
  86
  102
  120
  140
  163
  187
  214
  243
  275
  308
  344
  383
  424
  467
  513
  562
  614
  669
  726
  787
  852
  920
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,230
  1,318
  1,411
  1,508
  1,611
Total liabilities, $m
  675
  688
  704
  722
  742
  765
  789
  816
  845
  877
  910
  946
  985
  1,026
  1,069
  1,115
  1,164
  1,216
  1,271
  1,328
  1,389
  1,454
  1,522
  1,593
  1,669
  1,748
  1,832
  1,920
  2,013
  2,110
  2,213
Total equity, $m
  358
  366
  374
  384
  394
  406
  419
  434
  449
  466
  484
  503
  523
  545
  568
  593
  619
  646
  675
  706
  738
  773
  809
  847
  887
  929
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
  1,176
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,033
  1,054
  1,078
  1,106
  1,136
  1,171
  1,208
  1,250
  1,294
  1,343
  1,394
  1,449
  1,508
  1,571
  1,637
  1,708
  1,783
  1,862
  1,946
  2,034
  2,127
  2,227
  2,331
  2,440
  2,556
  2,677
  2,805
  2,940
  3,082
  3,231
  3,389
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.204
  0.240
  0.270
  0.310
  0.360
  0.400
  0.450
  0.490
  0.540
  0.590
  0.640
  0.680
  0.730
  0.780
  0.820
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.990
  1.030
  1.070
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  148
  153
  159
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  91
  132
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  132
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  175
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -249
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -174
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  166
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  368
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  78
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  103
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  51
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  103
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -123
  139
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  326
  341
  357
  373
  391
  409
  429
  449
  470
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  132
  136
  140
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  363
  379
  397
  416
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  126
  125
  122
  119
  116
  112
  108
  103
  98
  93
  87
  81
  75
  69
  63
  57
  51
  45
  39
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (Heritage Insurance) is a property and casualty insurance holding company. The Company provides personal and commercial residential insurance. Through its subsidiary, Heritage Property & Casualty Insurance Company (Heritage P&C), it provides personal residential insurance for single-family homeowners and condominium owners, rental property insurance and commercial residential insurance in the state of Florida and North Carolina. The Company is vertically integrated and controls or manages all aspects of insurance underwriting, customer service, actuarial analysis, distribution and claims processing and adjusting. The Company's primary products are personal and commercial residential insurance, which it offers only in Florida. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed and wrote personal lines voluntary policies through a network of approximately 1,900 independent agents. It had 150,998 voluntary personal residential policies as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -28.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 20.4%
Total Debt to Equity 20.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.4%
Operating Margin 13%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 20.6%

HRTG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HRTG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $439 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heritage Insurance Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Heritage Insurance Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HRTG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HRTG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heritage Insurance Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heritage Insurance Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HRTG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HRTG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Heritage Insurance Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heritage Insurance Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HRTG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HRTG are equal to 7.2%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heritage Insurance Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HRTG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $358 million for Heritage Insurance Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.057 million for Heritage Insurance Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heritage Insurance Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heritage Insurance Sees RS Rating Rise To 73   [Oct-11-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Universal Insurance and other big Florida insurers see a quick rebound in stock prices   [Sep-12-17 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ How Tampa Bay and Florida insurers are making it through the storm   [08:05AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Hurricane Irma causes Florida insurance stocks to plunge   [Sep-08-17 01:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Irma batters Tampa Bay insurance stocks   [Sep-05-17 03:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Heritage Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Aug-08-17 10:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Heritage Announces Third Quarter Dividend   [04:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Heritage Insurance posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heritage Insurance Announces Second Quarter Dividend   [May-02-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Insider Invests in Heritage Insurance Holdings   [Mar-22-17 01:22PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Heritage CEO calls homeowners insurance claims practice 'fraud'   [Mar-17-17 08:05AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Heritage CEO calls homeowners insurance claims practice 'fraud'   [08:05AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Heritage Insurance reports 4Q loss   [05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Heritage Announces First Quarter Dividend   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ennis, Inc. (EBF): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-09-16 03:50AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Tampa Bay insurance stocks are on the rise   [Oct-07-16 05:33PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of HRTG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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