Intrinsic value of Harsco - HSC

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$12.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$12.65

 
Intrinsic value

$2.69

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.79
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,451
  1,480
  1,514
  1,553
  1,597
  1,645
  1,698
  1,756
  1,819
  1,886
  1,958
  2,036
  2,119
  2,206
  2,300
  2,399
  2,504
  2,616
  2,733
  2,858
  2,989
  3,128
  3,274
  3,428
  3,590
  3,761
  3,941
  4,130
  4,329
  4,539
  4,760
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,152
  1,178
  1,207
  1,240
  1,276
  1,316
  1,360
  1,407
  1,458
  1,512
  1,532
  1,595
  1,661
  1,731
  1,806
  1,885
  1,969
  2,057
  2,151
  2,250
  2,354
  2,464
  2,580
  2,702
  2,831
  2,966
  3,109
  3,259
  3,416
  3,582
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  347
  355
  364
  373
  383
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  444
  455
  466
  478
  490
  502
  515
  528
  541
  554
  568
  582
  597
  612
  627
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,423
  1,458
  1,492
  1,529
  1,570
  1,614
  1,663
  1,715
  1,771
  1,831
  1,895
  1,924
  1,997
  2,073
  2,153
  2,239
  2,329
  2,424
  2,523
  2,629
  2,740
  2,856
  2,979
  3,108
  3,243
  3,385
  3,534
  3,691
  3,856
  4,028
  4,209
Operating income, $m
  28
  21
  22
  24
  27
  30
  35
  41
  47
  55
  63
  111
  122
  134
  146
  160
  176
  192
  210
  229
  249
  271
  295
  320
  347
  376
  406
  439
  474
  511
  550
EBITDA, $m
  169
  146
  149
  153
  158
  164
  172
  181
  191
  203
  216
  230
  245
  262
  280
  300
  321
  344
  369
  395
  423
  453
  486
  520
  556
  595
  636
  680
  726
  775
  827
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  40
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
  219
Earnings before tax, $m
  -79
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -1
  3
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  85
  95
  106
  118
  131
  145
  161
  177
  195
  214
  234
  256
  279
  304
  331
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
Net income, $m
  -86
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -1
  2
  34
  39
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  156
  171
  187
  204
  222
  242

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,581
  1,538
  1,574
  1,614
  1,660
  1,710
  1,765
  1,825
  1,890
  1,961
  2,036
  2,116
  2,202
  2,294
  2,391
  2,494
  2,603
  2,719
  2,841
  2,971
  3,107
  3,251
  3,403
  3,563
  3,732
  3,909
  4,096
  4,293
  4,500
  4,718
  4,948
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,509
  1,538
  1,574
  1,614
  1,660
  1,710
  1,765
  1,825
  1,890
  1,961
  2,036
  2,116
  2,202
  2,294
  2,391
  2,494
  2,603
  2,719
  2,841
  2,971
  3,107
  3,251
  3,403
  3,563
  3,732
  3,909
  4,096
  4,293
  4,500
  4,718
  4,948
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
Average production assets, $m
  575
  586
  600
  615
  632
  651
  672
  695
  720
  747
  776
  806
  839
  874
  911
  950
  992
  1,036
  1,082
  1,132
  1,184
  1,239
  1,296
  1,357
  1,422
  1,489
  1,561
  1,636
  1,714
  1,798
  1,885
Working capital, $m
  150
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  178
  185
  194
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
  292
  306
  320
  336
  352
Total debt, $m
  659
  559
  590
  627
  668
  713
  763
  817
  875
  939
  1,006
  1,079
  1,156
  1,238
  1,326
  1,419
  1,517
  1,621
  1,731
  1,848
  1,970
  2,100
  2,237
  2,381
  2,533
  2,692
  2,861
  3,038
  3,224
  3,421
  3,627
Total liabilities, $m
  1,485
  1,385
  1,416
  1,453
  1,494
  1,539
  1,589
  1,643
  1,701
  1,765
  1,832
  1,905
  1,982
  2,064
  2,152
  2,245
  2,343
  2,447
  2,557
  2,674
  2,796
  2,926
  3,063
  3,207
  3,359
  3,518
  3,687
  3,864
  4,050
  4,247
  4,453
Total equity, $m
  96
  154
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  472
  495
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,581
  1,539
  1,573
  1,614
  1,660
  1,710
  1,766
  1,826
  1,890
  1,961
  2,036
  2,117
  2,202
  2,293
  2,391
  2,494
  2,603
  2,719
  2,841
  2,971
  3,107
  3,251
  3,403
  3,563
  3,732
  3,909
  4,097
  4,293
  4,500
  4,719
  4,948
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.865
  3.630
  3.750
  3.880
  4.020
  4.170
  4.320
  4.470
  4.630
  4.790
  4.940
  5.100
  5.250
  5.400
  5.550
  5.690
  5.830
  5.960
  6.090
  6.220
  6.340
  6.460
  6.570
  6.680
  6.790
  6.890
  6.980
  7.080
  7.160
  7.250
  7.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.019
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -86
  -19
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -1
  2
  34
  39
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  142
  156
  171
  187
  204
  222
  242
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  124
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  119
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  241
  252
  264
  277
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  106
  113
  115
  118
  122
  127
  132
  139
  147
  155
  153
  162
  172
  183
  195
  208
  222
  237
  253
  270
  288
  308
  329
  351
  375
  400
  427
  456
  487
  519
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  61
  110
  112
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  142
  149
  147
  156
  165
  176
  187
  200
  213
  228
  243
  260
  278
  297
  317
  339
  362
  387
  413
  441
  471
  503
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -252
  -264
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Cash from investing activities, $m
  123
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -320
  -335
  -351
Free cash flow, $m
  283
  -35
  11
  8
  7
  6
  6
  6
  7
  9
  11
  2
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  23
  29
  35
  42
  49
  57
  66
  75
  86
  97
  109
  122
  136
  151
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -261
  -70
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  163
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -288
  93
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  -106
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  246
  265
  286
  308
  332
  357
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  176
  -100
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  39
  41
  43
  46
  50
  54
  59
  65
  71
  67
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  127
  138
  151
  164
  179
  194
  210
  228
  246
  266
  288
  310
  334
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  32
  30
  28
  26
  24
  22
  21
  19
  17
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8
  76.8

Harsco Corporation provides industrial services and engineered products worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Harsco Metals & Minerals, Harsco Industrial, and Harsco Rail. The Harsco Metals & Minerals segment provides on-site services of material logistics, product quality improvement, and resource recovery for iron, steel, and metals manufacturing; and value added environmental solutions for industrial co-products, as well as manufactures industrial abrasives and roofing granules. The Harsco Industrial segment manufactures and supplies custom-engineered and manufactured air-cooled heat exchangers for the natural gas, natural gas processing, and petrochemical industries; industrial grating products, which include a range of metal bar grating configurations for industrial flooring, and safety and security applications in the energy, paper, chemical, refining, and processing industries, as well as offers GrateGuard, a fencing solution for first-line physical security; and heat transfer products, such as boilers and water heaters for commercial and institutional applications. The Harsco Rail segment designs and manufactures safety systems for transportation and industrial applications; and equipment, after-market parts, and services for the maintenance, repair, and construction of railway track. This segment serves private and government-owned railroads, and urban mass transit systems. Harsco Corporation was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Harsco (HSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 10.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 655.2%
Total Debt to Equity 686.5%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Total Capital -8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Return On Equity -46.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Operating Margin 1.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin -5.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Effective Tax Rate -8.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.1%
Payout Ratio -4.7%

HSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1451 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Harsco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Harsco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for HSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Harsco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Harsco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $299 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Harsco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Harsco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSC are equal to 39.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Harsco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSC is equal to 7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $96 million for Harsco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.784 million for Harsco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Harsco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Harsco Corp. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IIROC Trading Halt - HSC   [Mar-06-17 09:16AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Harsco reports 4Q loss   [07:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ 10 things you need to know today   [Feb-21-17 06:34AM  Business Insider]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Carmike Cinemas, Inc. (CKEC)   [Dec-07-16 06:50AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Harsco Appoints Jeswant Gill to Lead Its Rail Business   [Oct-19-16 10:57AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ A Closer Look at Five Stocks Gaining Ground on Friday   [Sep-16-16 12:02PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Harsco Sells Stake in CD&R Portfolio Company   [Sep-15-16 06:40PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Harsco Sells Interest in Brand Energy JV   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Harsco Announces Leadership Updates   [Aug-16-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Cree, Harsco, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals Jumped Today   [Jul-14-16 06:34PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of HSC Financial statements of HSC
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