Intrinsic value of Heidrick&Struggles International - HSII

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$22.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HSII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.67
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  601
  665
  733
  803
  877
  953
  1,033
  1,116
  1,202
  1,292
  1,385
  1,482
  1,582
  1,687
  1,796
  1,909
  2,027
  2,150
  2,277
  2,411
  2,550
  2,695
  2,847
  3,005
  3,170
  3,343
  3,524
  3,713
  3,911
  4,119
  4,336
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  622
  684
  748
  815
  885
  958
  1,034
  1,113
  1,194
  1,279
  1,352
  1,444
  1,540
  1,639
  1,742
  1,850
  1,962
  2,079
  2,200
  2,327
  2,460
  2,598
  2,743
  2,894
  3,051
  3,217
  3,389
  3,570
  3,759
  3,957
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  566
  622
  684
  748
  815
  885
  958
  1,034
  1,113
  1,194
  1,279
  1,352
  1,444
  1,540
  1,639
  1,742
  1,850
  1,962
  2,079
  2,200
  2,327
  2,460
  2,598
  2,743
  2,894
  3,051
  3,217
  3,389
  3,570
  3,759
  3,957
Operating income, $m
  35
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  106
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  210
  223
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  360
  378
EBITDA, $m
  51
  62
  68
  75
  81
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  327
  345
  363
  383
  403
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  43
  48
  52
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
Tax expense, $m
  23
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Net income, $m
  15
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  582
  462
  508
  557
  608
  662
  717
  774
  834
  897
  961
  1,028
  1,098
  1,171
  1,246
  1,325
  1,407
  1,492
  1,580
  1,673
  1,770
  1,870
  1,975
  2,085
  2,200
  2,320
  2,446
  2,577
  2,714
  2,858
  3,009
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  417
  462
  508
  557
  608
  662
  717
  774
  834
  897
  961
  1,028
  1,098
  1,171
  1,246
  1,325
  1,407
  1,492
  1,580
  1,673
  1,770
  1,870
  1,975
  2,085
  2,200
  2,320
  2,446
  2,577
  2,714
  2,858
  3,009
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.441
  1.439
  1.443
  1.442
  1.442
  1.440
  1.441
  1.442
  1.441
  1.440
  1.441
  1.442
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.442
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
  1.441
Average production assets, $m
  56
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
Working capital, $m
  77
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -128
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -202
  -216
  -231
  -246
  -262
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -352
  -372
  -393
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -515
  -542
  -571
  -601
  -633
Total debt, $m
  0
  35
  71
  109
  149
  190
  233
  277
  324
  372
  422
  474
  528
  584
  643
  704
  767
  833
  902
  974
  1,048
  1,126
  1,208
  1,293
  1,382
  1,475
  1,572
  1,674
  1,781
  1,892
  2,009
Total liabilities, $m
  323
  358
  394
  432
  472
  513
  556
  600
  647
  695
  745
  797
  851
  907
  966
  1,027
  1,090
  1,156
  1,225
  1,297
  1,371
  1,449
  1,531
  1,616
  1,705
  1,798
  1,895
  1,997
  2,104
  2,215
  2,332
Total equity, $m
  259
  104
  114
  125
  137
  149
  161
  174
  188
  202
  216
  231
  247
  263
  280
  298
  316
  336
  356
  376
  398
  421
  444
  469
  495
  522
  550
  580
  611
  643
  677
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  582
  462
  508
  557
  609
  662
  717
  774
  835
  897
  961
  1,028
  1,098
  1,170
  1,246
  1,325
  1,406
  1,492
  1,581
  1,673
  1,769
  1,870
  1,975
  2,085
  2,200
  2,320
  2,445
  2,577
  2,715
  2,858
  3,009
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.340
  0.620
  0.870
  1.080
  1.270
  1.440
  1.590
  1.720
  1.840
  1.950
  2.050
  2.140
  2.220
  2.290
  2.360
  2.420
  2.480
  2.540
  2.590
  2.630
  2.680
  2.720
  2.760
  2.790
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.920
  2.940
  2.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225
  0.225

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  228
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  9
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  92
  98
  103
  110
  116
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Cash from operations, $m
  25
  43
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -28
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  35
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -10
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  70
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  144
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
  347
  364
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  165
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  225
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  300
  314
  330
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  216
  75
  75
  76
  75
  74
  73
  71
  69
  66
  61
  58
  54
  51
  47
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  15
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc. provides executive search, culture shaping, and leadership consulting services on a retained basis to businesses and business leaders worldwide. The company enables its clients to build leadership teams by facilitating the recruitment, management, and deployment of senior executives. Its leadership consulting services include leadership assessment; leadership, team, and board development; succession planning; talent strategy; people performance; inter-team collaboration; and organizational transformation. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heidrick&Struggles International (HSII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -68.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 5.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 60.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.4%
Payout Ratio 66.7%

HSII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HSII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $601 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heidrick&Struggles International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Heidrick&Struggles International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HSII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HSII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heidrick&Struggles International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heidrick&Struggles International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HSII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HSII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Heidrick&Struggles International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heidrick&Struggles International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HSII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HSII are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heidrick&Struggles International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HSII is equal to -14.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for Heidrick&Struggles International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.182 million for Heidrick&Struggles International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heidrick&Struggles International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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Stock chart of HSII Financial statements of HSII Annual reports of HSII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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