Intrinsic value of Healthcare Trust of America - HTA

Previous Close

$30.62

  Intrinsic Value

$2.98

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

+14%

Previous close

$30.62

 
Intrinsic value

$2.98

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+14%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HTA.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HTA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.11
  15.90
  14.81
  13.83
  12.95
  12.15
  11.44
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  461
  534
  613
  698
  789
  884
  986
  1,092
  1,204
  1,320
  1,442
  1,569
  1,701
  1,838
  1,981
  2,130
  2,284
  2,444
  2,611
  2,784
  2,964
  3,152
  3,347
  3,550
  3,762
  3,983
  4,213
  4,454
  4,705
  4,967
  5,241
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  410
  471
  536
  606
  679
  757
  839
  924
  1,014
  1,107
  1,205
  1,306
  1,412
  1,522
  1,636
  1,754
  1,877
  2,005
  2,138
  2,277
  2,421
  2,571
  2,727
  2,889
  3,059
  3,236
  3,420
  3,613
  3,814
  4,025
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  362
  410
  471
  536
  606
  679
  757
  839
  924
  1,014
  1,107
  1,205
  1,306
  1,412
  1,522
  1,636
  1,754
  1,877
  2,005
  2,138
  2,277
  2,421
  2,571
  2,727
  2,889
  3,059
  3,236
  3,420
  3,613
  3,814
  4,025
Operating income, $m
  99
  124
  142
  162
  183
  205
  229
  253
  279
  306
  335
  364
  395
  427
  460
  494
  530
  567
  606
  646
  688
  731
  777
  824
  873
  924
  978
  1,033
  1,091
  1,152
  1,216
EBITDA, $m
  274
  327
  375
  427
  483
  541
  603
  668
  737
  808
  882
  960
  1,041
  1,125
  1,212
  1,303
  1,398
  1,496
  1,598
  1,704
  1,814
  1,929
  2,048
  2,173
  2,302
  2,437
  2,578
  2,725
  2,879
  3,039
  3,207
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  62
  74
  86
  99
  114
  129
  145
  161
  179
  197
  216
  236
  257
  279
  301
  324
  349
  374
  400
  427
  455
  485
  516
  547
  581
  615
  652
  689
  729
  770
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  148
  158
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
  382
  402
  424
  446
Tax expense, $m
  0
  17
  19
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
Net income, $m
  46
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  169
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  264
  279
  294
  309
  325

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,748
  4,344
  4,987
  5,677
  6,412
  7,191
  8,013
  8,878
  9,785
  10,733
  11,723
  12,755
  13,829
  14,946
  16,108
  17,315
  18,569
  19,873
  21,227
  22,636
  24,101
  25,626
  27,212
  28,865
  30,587
  32,383
  34,255
  36,209
  38,249
  40,380
  42,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,737
  4,344
  4,987
  5,677
  6,412
  7,191
  8,013
  8,878
  9,785
  10,733
  11,723
  12,755
  13,829
  14,946
  16,108
  17,315
  18,569
  19,873
  21,227
  22,636
  24,101
  25,626
  27,212
  28,865
  30,587
  32,383
  34,255
  36,209
  38,249
  40,380
  42,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
Average production assets, $m
  3,276
  3,796
  4,358
  4,961
  5,603
  6,284
  7,003
  7,759
  8,551
  9,380
  10,245
  11,147
  12,085
  13,062
  14,077
  15,132
  16,228
  17,367
  18,551
  19,782
  21,062
  22,395
  23,781
  25,226
  26,731
  28,300
  29,936
  31,644
  33,426
  35,288
  37,234
Working capital, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
Total debt, $m
  1,769
  2,106
  2,461
  2,842
  3,247
  3,677
  4,131
  4,609
  5,109
  5,633
  6,179
  6,749
  7,342
  7,958
  8,599
  9,266
  9,958
  10,678
  11,426
  12,203
  13,012
  13,853
  14,729
  15,642
  16,592
  17,583
  18,617
  19,695
  20,822
  21,998
  23,227
Total liabilities, $m
  2,061
  2,398
  2,753
  3,134
  3,539
  3,969
  4,423
  4,901
  5,401
  5,925
  6,471
  7,041
  7,634
  8,250
  8,891
  9,558
  10,250
  10,970
  11,718
  12,495
  13,304
  14,145
  15,021
  15,934
  16,884
  17,875
  18,909
  19,987
  21,114
  22,290
  23,519
Total equity, $m
  1,687
  1,946
  2,234
  2,543
  2,873
  3,222
  3,590
  3,977
  4,384
  4,809
  5,252
  5,714
  6,195
  6,696
  7,216
  7,757
  8,319
  8,903
  9,510
  10,141
  10,797
  11,480
  12,191
  12,932
  13,703
  14,507
  15,346
  16,222
  17,136
  18,090
  19,088
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,748
  4,344
  4,987
  5,677
  6,412
  7,191
  8,013
  8,878
  9,785
  10,734
  11,723
  12,755
  13,829
  14,946
  16,107
  17,315
  18,569
  19,873
  21,228
  22,636
  24,101
  25,625
  27,212
  28,866
  30,587
  32,382
  34,255
  36,209
  38,250
  40,380
  42,607
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.049
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  46
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  169
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  264
  279
  294
  309
  325
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  175
  203
  233
  265
  300
  336
  374
  415
  457
  502
  548
  596
  646
  698
  753
  809
  868
  929
  992
  1,058
  1,126
  1,198
  1,272
  1,349
  1,429
  1,513
  1,601
  1,692
  1,788
  1,887
  1,991
Funds from operations, $m
  181
  248
  283
  321
  361
  403
  447
  494
  543
  595
  648
  704
  762
  822
  885
  950
  1,018
  1,088
  1,161
  1,237
  1,317
  1,399
  1,485
  1,574
  1,667
  1,764
  1,865
  1,971
  2,081
  2,196
  2,317
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  204
  250
  285
  323
  363
  405
  450
  497
  546
  597
  651
  707
  765
  826
  888
  954
  1,022
  1,092
  1,165
  1,242
  1,321
  1,403
  1,489
  1,579
  1,672
  1,769
  1,871
  1,977
  2,087
  2,203
  2,323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -175
  -203
  -233
  -265
  -300
  -336
  -374
  -415
  -457
  -502
  -548
  -596
  -646
  -698
  -753
  -809
  -868
  -929
  -992
  -1,058
  -1,126
  -1,198
  -1,272
  -1,349
  -1,429
  -1,513
  -1,601
  -1,692
  -1,788
  -1,887
New CAPEX, $m
  -635
  -521
  -562
  -603
  -642
  -681
  -719
  -756
  -792
  -829
  -865
  -902
  -939
  -976
  -1,015
  -1,055
  -1,096
  -1,139
  -1,184
  -1,231
  -1,280
  -1,332
  -1,387
  -1,444
  -1,505
  -1,569
  -1,636
  -1,708
  -1,783
  -1,862
  -1,946
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -606
  -696
  -765
  -836
  -907
  -981
  -1,055
  -1,130
  -1,207
  -1,286
  -1,367
  -1,450
  -1,535
  -1,622
  -1,713
  -1,808
  -1,905
  -2,007
  -2,113
  -2,223
  -2,338
  -2,458
  -2,585
  -2,716
  -2,854
  -2,998
  -3,149
  -3,309
  -3,475
  -3,650
  -3,833
Free cash flow, $m
  -402
  -446
  -480
  -513
  -545
  -575
  -605
  -633
  -661
  -689
  -716
  -743
  -770
  -797
  -825
  -854
  -884
  -915
  -947
  -981
  -1,017
  -1,055
  -1,095
  -1,137
  -1,182
  -1,229
  -1,279
  -1,332
  -1,388
  -1,447
  -1,509
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  152
  337
  355
  381
  406
  430
  454
  477
  501
  524
  546
  570
  593
  617
  641
  666
  692
  720
  748
  778
  809
  841
  876
  912
  951
  991
  1,034
  1,079
  1,126
  1,176
  1,229
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  419
  225
  238
  254
  268
  282
  295
  308
  320
  332
  343
  354
  366
  377
  388
  400
  412
  424
  438
  451
  466
  482
  498
  515
  534
  554
  575
  597
  620
  645
  672
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  560
  562
  593
  635
  674
  712
  749
  785
  821
  856
  889
  924
  959
  994
  1,029
  1,066
  1,104
  1,144
  1,186
  1,229
  1,275
  1,323
  1,374
  1,427
  1,485
  1,545
  1,609
  1,676
  1,746
  1,821
  1,901
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  157
  116
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  152
  159
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  329
  343
  359
  375
  391
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -308
  -270
  -288
  -309
  -329
  -349
  -368
  -387
  -406
  -425
  -443
  -462
  -481
  -500
  -520
  -541
  -562
  -584
  -607
  -631
  -656
  -683
  -711
  -740
  -772
  -804
  -839
  -875
  -914
  -955
  -997
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -143
  -175
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -510
  -532
  -555
  -580
  -606
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -132
  -147
  -143
  -136
  -128
  -119
  -109
  -98
  -87
  -76
  -65
  -55
  -46
  -38
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.0
  90.7
  86.9
  83.4
  80.4
  77.6
  75.1
  72.8
  70.7
  68.8
  67.0
  65.4
  63.9
  62.5
  61.1
  59.9
  58.7
  57.6
  56.6
  55.6
  54.6
  53.7
  52.9
  52.0
  51.2
  50.4
  49.7
  49.0
  48.2
  47.6

Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. is a publicly owned equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of the United States. It is engaged in acquiring, owning and operating high-quality medical office buildings located primarily on-campus or affiliated with the nation’s leading healthcare systems. Healthcare Trust of America, Inc. was founded on April 20, 2006 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Healthcare Trust of America (HTA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 94.3
Price to Sales 9.4
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 105.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 104.9%
Total Debt to Equity 104.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.1%
EBITDA Margin 59.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
Operating Margin 21.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 10%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 345.7%

HTA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HTA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $461 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Healthcare Trust of America. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Healthcare Trust of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HTA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for HTA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Healthcare Trust of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Healthcare Trust of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HTA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HTA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Healthcare Trust of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Healthcare Trust of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HTA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HTA are equal to 710.5%.

Life of production assets of 18.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Healthcare Trust of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HTA is equal to -2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1687 million for Healthcare Trust of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 141.328 million for Healthcare Trust of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Healthcare Trust of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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Stock chart of HTA Financial statements of HTA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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