Intrinsic value of Heritage Commerce - HTBK

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$16.96

  Intrinsic Value

$2.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$16.96

 
Intrinsic value

$2.12

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as HTBK.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HTBK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  0
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  356
  377
  398
  420
  443
  468
  493
  520
  547
  576
  607
  639
  672
  707
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  127
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
Operating income, $m
  0
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  117
  127
  136
  146
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  325
  344
  363
  384
  405
  428
EBITDA, $m
  3
  351
  384
  418
  454
  491
  530
  570
  612
  655
  700
  747
  796
  847
  899
  955
  1,012
  1,072
  1,135
  1,200
  1,268
  1,340
  1,414
  1,493
  1,574
  1,660
  1,749
  1,843
  1,941
  2,044
  2,152
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  129
  125
  137
  149
  161
  175
  188
  202
  217
  232
  248
  265
  282
  300
  318
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  473
  499
  527
  555
  585
  617
  650
  684
  720
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  -73
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -278
  -292
Tax expense, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  27
  -73
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -278
  -292

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,571
  2,696
  2,935
  3,184
  3,443
  3,713
  3,992
  4,283
  4,586
  4,900
  5,226
  5,566
  5,919
  6,287
  6,670
  7,069
  7,486
  7,919
  8,372
  8,845
  9,338
  9,854
  10,393
  10,957
  11,547
  12,163
  12,809
  13,485
  14,193
  14,935
  15,712
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,571
  2,696
  2,935
  3,184
  3,443
  3,713
  3,992
  4,283
  4,586
  4,900
  5,226
  5,566
  5,919
  6,287
  6,670
  7,069
  7,486
  7,919
  8,372
  8,845
  9,338
  9,854
  10,393
  10,957
  11,547
  12,163
  12,809
  13,485
  14,193
  14,935
  15,712
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
  0.045
Average production assets, $m
  16
  2,958
  3,220
  3,494
  3,778
  4,073
  4,380
  4,699
  5,031
  5,376
  5,734
  6,107
  6,494
  6,898
  7,318
  7,756
  8,213
  8,689
  9,186
  9,704
  10,246
  10,811
  11,403
  12,021
  12,668
  13,345
  14,054
  14,795
  15,572
  16,386
  17,238
Working capital, $m
  0
  -2,755
  -2,999
  -3,253
  -3,518
  -3,793
  -4,079
  -4,376
  -4,685
  -5,006
  -5,340
  -5,687
  -6,048
  -6,424
  -6,815
  -7,223
  -7,648
  -8,091
  -8,554
  -9,037
  -9,541
  -10,068
  -10,619
  -11,194
  -11,797
  -12,427
  -13,087
  -13,778
  -14,501
  -15,259
  -16,052
Total debt, $m
  0
  2,318
  2,533
  2,757
  2,990
  3,233
  3,485
  3,746
  4,019
  4,301
  4,595
  4,901
  5,219
  5,550
  5,895
  6,254
  6,628
  7,019
  7,427
  7,852
  8,296
  8,760
  9,245
  9,753
  10,283
  10,839
  11,420
  12,028
  12,665
  13,333
  14,032
Total liabilities, $m
  2,311
  2,426
  2,642
  2,866
  3,099
  3,341
  3,593
  3,855
  4,127
  4,410
  4,704
  5,009
  5,327
  5,659
  6,003
  6,363
  6,737
  7,127
  7,535
  7,960
  8,405
  8,869
  9,354
  9,861
  10,392
  10,947
  11,528
  12,137
  12,774
  13,441
  14,141
Total equity, $m
  260
  270
  294
  318
  344
  371
  399
  428
  459
  490
  523
  557
  592
  629
  667
  707
  749
  792
  837
  884
  934
  985
  1,039
  1,096
  1,155
  1,216
  1,281
  1,349
  1,419
  1,493
  1,571
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,571
  2,696
  2,936
  3,184
  3,443
  3,712
  3,992
  4,283
  4,586
  4,900
  5,227
  5,566
  5,919
  6,288
  6,670
  7,070
  7,486
  7,919
  8,372
  8,844
  9,339
  9,854
  10,393
  10,957
  11,547
  12,163
  12,809
  13,486
  14,193
  14,934
  15,712
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.101
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  -73
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -278
  -292
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  296
  322
  349
  378
  407
  438
  470
  503
  538
  573
  611
  649
  690
  732
  776
  821
  869
  919
  970
  1,025
  1,081
  1,140
  1,202
  1,267
  1,335
  1,405
  1,480
  1,557
  1,639
  1,724
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  223
  259
  282
  305
  330
  355
  382
  409
  438
  468
  499
  531
  565
  600
  636
  674
  714
  756
  799
  844
  892
  941
  993
  1,048
  1,104
  1,164
  1,226
  1,292
  1,360
  1,432
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -391
  -408
  -425
  -443
  -463
  -483
  -504
  -527
  -551
  -576
  -602
  -630
  -660
  -691
  -723
  -758
  -794
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  457
  503
  536
  570
  605
  641
  679
  718
  759
  801
  846
  892
  941
  991
  1,044
  1,100
  1,158
  1,218
  1,282
  1,349
  1,419
  1,492
  1,569
  1,650
  1,735
  1,824
  1,917
  2,015
  2,118
  2,226
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -271
  -296
  -322
  -349
  -378
  -407
  -438
  -470
  -503
  -538
  -573
  -611
  -649
  -690
  -732
  -776
  -821
  -869
  -919
  -970
  -1,025
  -1,081
  -1,140
  -1,202
  -1,267
  -1,335
  -1,405
  -1,480
  -1,557
  -1,639
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -332
  -345
  -358
  -373
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -438
  -456
  -476
  -497
  -519
  -542
  -566
  -591
  -618
  -647
  -677
  -708
  -742
  -777
  -814
  -852
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -288
  -522
  -558
  -595
  -633
  -673
  -714
  -757
  -802
  -848
  -896
  -946
  -999
  -1,053
  -1,110
  -1,170
  -1,232
  -1,297
  -1,366
  -1,438
  -1,512
  -1,591
  -1,672
  -1,758
  -1,849
  -1,944
  -2,043
  -2,147
  -2,257
  -2,371
  -2,491
Free cash flow, $m
  -262
  -65
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  -66
  215
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  391
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  352
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  219
  229
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  336
  353
  370
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  198
  286
  302
  317
  331
  346
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
  452
  472
  493
  515
  538
  562
  589
  615
  644
  673
  705
  738
  772
  809
  847
  887
  929
  973
  1,020
  1,069
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -64
  222
  247
  258
  268
  279
  289
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  366
  380
  396
  413
  430
  449
  468
  489
  511
  533
  558
  583
  610
  638
  668
  699
  732
  767
  804
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -352
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -353
  -370
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -121
  160
  165
  169
  174
  179
  184
  189
  194
  200
  205
  212
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  281
  293
  305
  318
  332
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  434
Discount rate, %
 
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -106
  122
  107
  93
  79
  67
  55
  45
  36
  28
  21
  16
  12
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  37.8
  28.7
  22.0
  16.8
  13.0
  10.0
  7.8
  6.0
  4.7
  3.7
  2.9
  2.3
  1.8
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0

Heritage Commerce Corp is a bank holding company. The Company, through its subsidiary Heritage Bank of Commerce (the Bank), provides a range of banking services. The Bank is a California state-chartered multi-community independent bank that offers a range of commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses and their owners, managers and employees. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated through 11 service branch offices located in the southern and eastern regions of the general San Francisco Bay Area of California in the counties of Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa and San Benito. The Company's subsidiary, CSNK Working Capital Finance Corp., doing business as Bay View Funding, provides business-essential working capital factoring financing to various industries across the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Bank operated automated teller machines (ATMs) at five different locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Heritage Commerce (HTBK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Total Capital 10.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 51.9%

HTBK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HTBK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Heritage Commerce. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Heritage Commerce. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HTBK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14%, whose default value for HTBK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Heritage Commerce, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Heritage Commerce.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HTBK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 32.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HTBK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Heritage Commerce.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Heritage Commerce. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HTBK stock is equal to 1.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HTBK are equal to 2438.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Heritage Commerce operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HTBK is equal to -2270.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Heritage Commerce - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38 million for Heritage Commerce is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Heritage Commerce at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heritage Commerce: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 06:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Best-In-Class Financial Dividend Stocks   [01:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Heritage Commerce posts 4Q profit   [Jan-26-18 06:48AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heritage Commerce Corp and Tri-Valley Bank Agree to Merge   [Dec-20-17 07:22PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heritage Commerce Joins Rank Of Stocks With 95-Plus Composite Rating   [Nov-30-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Heritage Commerce posts 3Q profit   [Oct-27-17 05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK)?   [Oct-26-17 05:50PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Heritage Commerce posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 12:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Heritage Bank of Commerce Achieves Top Industry Award   [Jun-22-17 02:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heritage Commerce posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:42PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of HTBK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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