Intrinsic value of China Lodging Group ADR - HTHT

Previous Close

$99.80

  Intrinsic Value

$50.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-49%

  Value-price divergence*

+3602%

Previous close

$99.80

 
Intrinsic value

$50.75

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+3602%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HTHT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.29
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  946
  1,046
  1,151
  1,261
  1,376
  1,495
  1,619
  1,748
  1,883
  2,022
  2,167
  2,318
  2,474
  2,637
  2,807
  2,983
  3,166
  3,358
  3,557
  3,765
  3,981
  4,207
  4,444
  4,690
  4,948
  5,218
  5,499
  5,794
  6,103
  6,426
  6,764
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  679
  747
  818
  892
  969
  1,049
  1,133
  1,219
  1,309
  1,403
  1,498
  1,599
  1,705
  1,814
  1,928
  2,047
  2,170
  2,299
  2,433
  2,573
  2,719
  2,872
  3,032
  3,198
  3,372
  3,555
  3,745
  3,945
  4,153
  4,372
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
Total operating expenses, $m
  820
  895
  969
  1,045
  1,125
  1,208
  1,294
  1,384
  1,476
  1,573
  1,673
  1,775
  1,883
  1,996
  2,112
  2,234
  2,360
  2,491
  2,628
  2,770
  2,919
  3,073
  3,235
  3,404
  3,580
  3,763
  3,956
  4,156
  4,366
  4,585
  4,815
Operating income, $m
  126
  151
  183
  216
  251
  287
  325
  365
  406
  449
  494
  543
  591
  642
  694
  749
  807
  866
  929
  994
  1,062
  1,134
  1,208
  1,286
  1,368
  1,454
  1,544
  1,638
  1,737
  1,841
  1,949
EBITDA, $m
  227
  219
  257
  297
  339
  383
  429
  476
  526
  578
  631
  687
  745
  806
  869
  935
  1,004
  1,075
  1,150
  1,229
  1,310
  1,396
  1,485
  1,579
  1,676
  1,779
  1,886
  1,999
  2,117
  2,241
  2,371
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  2
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  156
  151
  181
  212
  244
  278
  313
  349
  388
  428
  469
  515
  560
  607
  655
  706
  760
  815
  873
  934
  997
  1,064
  1,133
  1,206
  1,282
  1,362
  1,446
  1,533
  1,625
  1,722
  1,823
Tax expense, $m
  42
  41
  49
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  115
  127
  139
  151
  164
  177
  191
  205
  220
  236
  252
  269
  287
  306
  326
  346
  368
  390
  414
  439
  465
  492
Net income, $m
  116
  110
  132
  154
  178
  203
  228
  255
  283
  312
  342
  376
  409
  443
  478
  516
  555
  595
  637
  682
  728
  776
  827
  880
  936
  994
  1,055
  1,119
  1,187
  1,257
  1,331

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  468
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,446
  1,082
  1,191
  1,304
  1,423
  1,546
  1,674
  1,808
  1,947
  2,091
  2,241
  2,397
  2,559
  2,727
  2,902
  3,085
  3,274
  3,472
  3,678
  3,893
  4,117
  4,351
  4,595
  4,850
  5,117
  5,396
  5,687
  5,992
  6,311
  6,645
  6,995
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  978
  1,082
  1,191
  1,304
  1,423
  1,546
  1,674
  1,808
  1,947
  2,091
  2,241
  2,397
  2,559
  2,727
  2,902
  3,085
  3,274
  3,472
  3,678
  3,893
  4,117
  4,351
  4,595
  4,850
  5,117
  5,396
  5,687
  5,992
  6,311
  6,645
  6,995
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.967
  0.967
  0.966
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
  0.967
Average production assets, $m
  590
  652
  717
  786
  857
  931
  1,009
  1,089
  1,173
  1,260
  1,350
  1,444
  1,541
  1,643
  1,748
  1,858
  1,973
  2,092
  2,216
  2,345
  2,480
  2,621
  2,768
  2,922
  3,083
  3,251
  3,426
  3,610
  3,802
  4,003
  4,214
Working capital, $m
  175
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -138
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -202
  -217
  -232
  -247
  -264
  -281
  -298
  -317
  -336
  -356
  -376
  -398
  -421
  -444
  -469
  -495
  -522
  -550
  -579
  -610
  -643
  -676
Total debt, $m
  43
  66
  135
  207
  283
  361
  443
  528
  616
  708
  803
  902
  1,005
  1,112
  1,224
  1,340
  1,461
  1,586
  1,717
  1,854
  1,996
  2,145
  2,301
  2,463
  2,632
  2,810
  2,995
  3,189
  3,392
  3,604
  3,827
Total liabilities, $m
  665
  688
  757
  829
  905
  983
  1,065
  1,150
  1,238
  1,330
  1,425
  1,524
  1,627
  1,734
  1,846
  1,962
  2,083
  2,208
  2,339
  2,476
  2,618
  2,767
  2,923
  3,085
  3,254
  3,432
  3,617
  3,811
  4,014
  4,226
  4,449
Total equity, $m
  781
  394
  433
  475
  518
  563
  609
  658
  709
  761
  816
  872
  931
  993
  1,056
  1,123
  1,192
  1,264
  1,339
  1,417
  1,499
  1,584
  1,673
  1,766
  1,863
  1,964
  2,070
  2,181
  2,297
  2,419
  2,546
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,446
  1,082
  1,190
  1,304
  1,423
  1,546
  1,674
  1,808
  1,947
  2,091
  2,241
  2,396
  2,558
  2,727
  2,902
  3,085
  3,275
  3,472
  3,678
  3,893
  4,117
  4,351
  4,596
  4,851
  5,117
  5,396
  5,687
  5,992
  6,311
  6,645
  6,995
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.055
  0.170
  0.310
  0.440
  0.550
  0.640
  0.730
  0.800
  0.870
  0.930
  0.980
  1.030
  1.080
  1.120
  1.160
  1.190
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  116
  110
  132
  154
  178
  203
  228
  255
  283
  312
  342
  376
  409
  443
  478
  516
  555
  595
  637
  682
  728
  776
  827
  880
  936
  994
  1,055
  1,119
  1,187
  1,257
  1,331
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  68
  74
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  120
  128
  138
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  222
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
  325
  343
  361
  380
  400
  421
Funds from operations, $m
  345
  178
  206
  235
  266
  298
  332
  367
  403
  441
  480
  520
  563
  607
  653
  702
  752
  804
  859
  916
  976
  1,039
  1,104
  1,172
  1,244
  1,319
  1,398
  1,480
  1,567
  1,657
  1,752
Change in working capital, $m
  49
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  296
  188
  217
  246
  278
  310
  344
  379
  416
  455
  494
  535
  578
  623
  670
  719
  770
  823
  879
  937
  998
  1,061
  1,128
  1,197
  1,270
  1,346
  1,426
  1,510
  1,598
  1,690
  1,786
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -400
New CAPEX, $m
  -75
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -211
Cash from investing activities, $m
  27
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -389
  -409
  -431
  -453
  -476
  -501
  -527
  -553
  -581
  -611
Free cash flow, $m
  323
  67
  86
  106
  128
  150
  174
  198
  224
  250
  278
  306
  336
  368
  400
  434
  470
  507
  546
  586
  628
  672
  718
  767
  817
  870
  925
  983
  1,044
  1,108
  1,175
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  329
  133
  155
  179
  203
  229
  255
  283
  312
  342
  373
  405
  439
  475
  512
  550
  591
  633
  677
  723
  771
  821
  874
  929
  987
  1,047
  1,111
  1,177
  1,247
  1,321
  1,398
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -285
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  425
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  520
  116
  137
  160
  184
  209
  234
  261
  290
  319
  349
  380
  414
  448
  484
  522
  561
  602
  644
  689
  736
  785
  836
  890
  946
  1,005
  1,066
  1,131
  1,199
  1,270
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  499
  106
  119
  132
  142
  151
  158
  163
  166
  167
  166
  162
  157
  150
  142
  133
  122
  111
  99
  88
  76
  65
  55
  45
  37
  29
  23
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

China Lodging Group, Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops leased, manachised, and franchised hotels primarily in the People’s Republic of China. It operates hotels under the Joya Hotel, Manxin Hotels & Resorts, JI Hotel, Starway Hotel, Elan Hotel, HanTing Hotel, and Hi Inn brand names for business and leisure traveler customers. As of December 31, 2015, the company had 616 leased hotels, 2,067 manachised hotels, and 80 franchised hotels in operation; and 21 leased hotels and 656 manachised and franchised hotels under development. China Lodging Group, Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  China Lodging Group ADR (HTHT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 239.4
Price to Sales 29.4
Price to Book 35.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 93.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 125.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 5.5%
Interest Coverage 157
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 17%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
EBITDA Margin 27.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Payout Ratio 34.5%

HTHT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HTHT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $946 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by China Lodging Group ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of China Lodging Group ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HTHT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for HTHT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of China Lodging Group ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of China Lodging Group ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HTHT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $211 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HTHT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for China Lodging Group ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for China Lodging Group ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HTHT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HTHT are equal to 62.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in China Lodging Group ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HTHT is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $781 million for China Lodging Group ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.46 million for China Lodging Group ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of China Lodging Group ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ China Lodging posts 2Q profit   [Aug-17-17 06:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ China Lodging seals US$500m acquisition loan   [Jun-01-17 12:19AM  Reuters]
▶ China Lodging posts 1Q profit   [May-10-17 05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ China Lodging posts 4Q profit   [Mar-14-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tesla Is A Top Pick, China Lodging Upgraded, Gamestop A Buy   [Dec-30-16 04:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Torn On Callidus Software Inc. (CALD)   [Dec-01-16 02:43PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-27-16 01:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 7 Good Growth Stocks to Buy Ahead of 2017   [Oct-10-16 09:20AM  at Kiplinger]
▶ 7 Stocks Spiking on Big Volume   [May-17-16 07:13AM  at TheStreet]
Stock chart of HTHT Financial statements of HTHT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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