Intrinsic value of Huntsman - HUN

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$25.34

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HUN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.23
  2.70
  2.93
  3.14
  3.32
  3.49
  3.64
  3.78
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  9,657
  9,918
  10,208
  10,529
  10,878
  11,258
  11,668
  12,109
  12,581
  13,086
  13,623
  14,195
  14,803
  15,447
  16,129
  16,850
  17,613
  18,419
  19,269
  20,166
  21,111
  22,108
  23,158
  24,263
  25,427
  26,652
  27,940
  29,296
  30,721
  32,220
  33,796
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,560
  9,840
  10,148
  10,485
  10,851
  11,246
  11,670
  12,125
  12,610
  13,128
  13,667
  14,251
  14,871
  15,528
  16,223
  16,957
  17,732
  18,551
  19,415
  20,325
  21,284
  22,295
  23,359
  24,480
  25,659
  26,899
  28,204
  29,577
  31,020
  32,537
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,013
  9,560
  9,840
  10,148
  10,485
  10,851
  11,246
  11,670
  12,125
  12,610
  13,128
  13,667
  14,251
  14,871
  15,528
  16,223
  16,957
  17,732
  18,551
  19,415
  20,325
  21,284
  22,295
  23,359
  24,480
  25,659
  26,899
  28,204
  29,577
  31,020
  32,537
Operating income, $m
  644
  357
  368
  380
  393
  407
  423
  439
  457
  475
  495
  529
  551
  575
  601
  628
  656
  686
  718
  751
  786
  824
  863
  904
  947
  993
  1,041
  1,091
  1,144
  1,200
  1,259
EBITDA, $m
  1,076
  800
  824
  849
  878
  908
  941
  977
  1,015
  1,056
  1,099
  1,145
  1,194
  1,246
  1,301
  1,360
  1,421
  1,486
  1,555
  1,627
  1,703
  1,784
  1,868
  1,958
  2,051
  2,150
  2,254
  2,364
  2,479
  2,600
  2,727
Interest expense (income), $m
  205
  190
  200
  211
  223
  236
  250
  265
  282
  299
  318
  338
  360
  382
  406
  432
  459
  487
  517
  549
  583
  618
  655
  694
  736
  779
  825
  873
  924
  977
  1,033
Earnings before tax, $m
  448
  167
  168
  169
  170
  171
  173
  174
  175
  176
  177
  190
  192
  193
  194
  196
  197
  199
  200
  202
  204
  206
  207
  209
  211
  214
  216
  218
  221
  223
  226
Tax expense, $m
  87
  45
  45
  46
  46
  46
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  51
  52
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  54
  55
  55
  55
  56
  57
  57
  58
  58
  59
  60
  60
  61
Net income, $m
  326
  122
  123
  124
  124
  125
  126
  127
  128
  128
  129
  139
  140
  141
  142
  143
  144
  145
  146
  147
  149
  150
  151
  153
  154
  156
  158
  159
  161
  163
  165

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  414
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,189
  9,008
  9,272
  9,563
  9,881
  10,225
  10,598
  10,998
  11,427
  11,885
  12,374
  12,893
  13,445
  14,030
  14,649
  15,304
  15,997
  16,729
  17,501
  18,316
  19,175
  20,080
  21,033
  22,037
  23,094
  24,207
  25,377
  26,608
  27,903
  29,265
  30,696
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,775
  9,008
  9,272
  9,563
  9,881
  10,225
  10,598
  10,998
  11,427
  11,885
  12,374
  12,893
  13,445
  14,030
  14,649
  15,304
  15,997
  16,729
  17,501
  18,316
  19,175
  20,080
  21,033
  22,037
  23,094
  24,207
  25,377
  26,608
  27,903
  29,265
  30,696
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
  1.101
Average production assets, $m
  4,405
  4,522
  4,655
  4,801
  4,961
  5,134
  5,321
  5,522
  5,737
  5,967
  6,212
  6,473
  6,750
  7,044
  7,355
  7,684
  8,032
  8,399
  8,787
  9,196
  9,627
  10,081
  10,560
  11,064
  11,595
  12,153
  12,741
  13,359
  14,009
  14,692
  15,411
Working capital, $m
  1,777
  1,458
  1,501
  1,548
  1,599
  1,655
  1,715
  1,780
  1,849
  1,924
  2,003
  2,087
  2,176
  2,271
  2,371
  2,477
  2,589
  2,708
  2,833
  2,964
  3,103
  3,250
  3,404
  3,567
  3,738
  3,918
  4,107
  4,306
  4,516
  4,736
  4,968
Total debt, $m
  4,196
  4,347
  4,583
  4,843
  5,127
  5,436
  5,768
  6,126
  6,510
  6,919
  7,356
  7,820
  8,314
  8,837
  9,390
  9,976
  10,596
  11,250
  11,940
  12,668
  13,436
  14,245
  15,098
  15,995
  16,940
  17,935
  18,981
  20,082
  21,239
  22,456
  23,736
Total liabilities, $m
  7,902
  8,053
  8,289
  8,549
  8,833
  9,142
  9,474
  9,832
  10,216
  10,625
  11,062
  11,526
  12,020
  12,543
  13,096
  13,682
  14,302
  14,956
  15,646
  16,374
  17,142
  17,951
  18,804
  19,701
  20,646
  21,641
  22,687
  23,788
  24,945
  26,162
  27,442
Total equity, $m
  1,287
  955
  983
  1,014
  1,047
  1,084
  1,123
  1,166
  1,211
  1,260
  1,312
  1,367
  1,425
  1,487
  1,553
  1,622
  1,696
  1,773
  1,855
  1,941
  2,033
  2,128
  2,230
  2,336
  2,448
  2,566
  2,690
  2,820
  2,958
  3,102
  3,254
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,189
  9,008
  9,272
  9,563
  9,880
  10,226
  10,597
  10,998
  11,427
  11,885
  12,374
  12,893
  13,445
  14,030
  14,649
  15,304
  15,998
  16,729
  17,501
  18,315
  19,175
  20,079
  21,034
  22,037
  23,094
  24,207
  25,377
  26,608
  27,903
  29,264
  30,696
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.260
  4.550
  4.660
  4.780
  4.900
  5.010
  5.130
  5.260
  5.370
  5.490
  5.610
  5.720
  5.830
  5.940
  6.050
  6.150
  6.250
  6.340
  6.440
  6.530
  6.610
  6.690
  6.770
  6.850
  6.920
  6.990
  7.060
  7.120
  7.180
  7.240
  7.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.099
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  326
  122
  123
  124
  124
  125
  126
  127
  128
  128
  129
  139
  140
  141
  142
  143
  144
  145
  146
  147
  149
  150
  151
  153
  154
  156
  158
  159
  161
  163
  165
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  432
  443
  455
  469
  485
  501
  519
  538
  558
  580
  604
  616
  643
  671
  700
  732
  765
  800
  837
  876
  917
  960
  1,006
  1,054
  1,104
  1,157
  1,213
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
  1,468
Funds from operations, $m
  1,443
  565
  578
  593
  609
  626
  645
  665
  686
  709
  733
  756
  783
  812
  842
  875
  909
  945
  983
  1,023
  1,066
  1,110
  1,157
  1,207
  1,259
  1,313
  1,371
  1,432
  1,495
  1,562
  1,633
Change in working capital, $m
  355
  38
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  220
  232
Cash from operations, $m
  1,088
  399
  536
  546
  557
  570
  585
  600
  617
  635
  654
  671
  694
  717
  742
  769
  797
  827
  858
  891
  927
  964
  1,003
  1,044
  1,088
  1,133
  1,182
  1,232
  1,286
  1,342
  1,401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -420
  -431
  -443
  -457
  -472
  -489
  -507
  -526
  -546
  -568
  -592
  -616
  -643
  -671
  -700
  -732
  -765
  -800
  -837
  -876
  -917
  -960
  -1,006
  -1,054
  -1,104
  -1,157
  -1,213
  -1,272
  -1,334
  -1,399
New CAPEX, $m
  -421
  -117
  -133
  -146
  -160
  -173
  -187
  -201
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -294
  -311
  -329
  -348
  -367
  -388
  -409
  -431
  -454
  -479
  -504
  -531
  -558
  -588
  -618
  -650
  -684
  -719
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -202
  -537
  -564
  -589
  -617
  -645
  -676
  -708
  -741
  -776
  -813
  -853
  -893
  -937
  -982
  -1,029
  -1,080
  -1,132
  -1,188
  -1,246
  -1,307
  -1,371
  -1,439
  -1,510
  -1,585
  -1,662
  -1,745
  -1,831
  -1,922
  -2,018
  -2,118
Free cash flow, $m
  886
  -138
  -28
  -44
  -59
  -75
  -91
  -108
  -125
  -142
  -159
  -181
  -200
  -219
  -240
  -261
  -283
  -306
  -330
  -354
  -380
  -408
  -436
  -466
  -497
  -529
  -563
  -599
  -637
  -676
  -717
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -560
  211
  236
  260
  284
  308
  333
  358
  383
  410
  437
  464
  493
  523
  554
  586
  619
  654
  690
  728
  768
  809
  852
  898
  945
  994
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,217
  1,280
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -603
  211
  236
  260
  284
  308
  333
  358
  383
  410
  437
  464
  493
  523
  554
  586
  619
  654
  690
  728
  768
  809
  852
  898
  945
  994
  1,046
  1,101
  1,158
  1,217
  1,280
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  277
  74
  208
  217
  225
  233
  242
  250
  259
  268
  277
  283
  293
  303
  314
  325
  337
  348
  361
  374
  387
  402
  416
  432
  448
  465
  483
  501
  521
  541
  563
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  155
  -22
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  406
  180
  186
  191
  197
  202
  208
  213
  219
  225
  228
  235
  241
  248
  256
  263
  271
  279
  288
  296
  306
  315
  325
  336
  347
  359
  371
  384
  397
  411
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  370
  148
  136
  124
  112
  100
  88
  76
  65
  55
  45
  37
  29
  23
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Huntsman Corporation, through its subsidiary, Huntsman International LLC, manufactures and sells differentiated organic and inorganic chemical products worldwide. The company operates in five segments: Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials, Textile Effects, and Pigments and Additives. The Polyurethanes segment offers polyurethane chemicals, including methyl diphenyl diisocyanate, propylene oxide, polyols, propylene glycol, thermoplastic polyurethane, aniline, and methyl tertiary-butyl ether products. The Performance Products segment provides amines, carbonates, surfactants, linear alkyl benzene, maleic anhydride, other performance chemicals, ethylene glycol, olefins, and technology licenses. The Advanced Materials segment offers basic liquid and solid epoxy resins; specialty resin compounds; cross-linking, matting, and curing agents; and epoxy, acrylic, and polyurethane-based formulations. The Textile Effects segment provides textile chemicals, dyes, and inks. The Pigments and Additives segment offers titanium dioxide, functional additives, color pigments, timber treatment, and water treatment chemicals. The company’s products are used in various applications, including adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, personal care and hygiene, durable and non-durable consumer products, electronics, medical, packaging, paints and coatings, power generation, refining, synthetic fiber, textile chemicals, and dye industries. Huntsman Corporation was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Huntsman (HUN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 321.4%
Total Debt to Equity 326%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Equity 23.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Operating Margin 6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Effective Tax Rate 19.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 36.8%

HUN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HUN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9657 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Huntsman. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Huntsman. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HUN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for HUN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Huntsman, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Huntsman.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HUN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HUN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Huntsman.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Huntsman. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HUN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HUN are equal to 45.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Huntsman operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HUN is equal to 14.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1287 million for Huntsman - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 243.161 million for Huntsman is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Huntsman at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.2 billion.


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▶ [$$] Huntsman, Clariant Agree to Merge   [03:30AM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ Hunstman Stock Upgraded at Citi   [Apr-03-17 11:12AM  TheStreet.com]
Stock chart of HUN Financial statements of HUN Annual reports of HUN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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