Intrinsic value of Headwaters - HW

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$24.24

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$24.24

 
Intrinsic value

$24.00

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.94
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.14
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
Revenue, $m
  975
  1,145
  1,330
  1,530
  1,744
  1,974
  2,217
  2,474
  2,744
  3,028
  3,325
  3,635
  3,958
  4,294
  4,644
  5,008
  5,386
  5,780
  6,188
  6,613
  7,054
  7,513
  7,991
  8,488
  9,005
  9,545
  10,107
  10,693
  11,305
  11,944
  12,611
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,009
  1,167
  1,339
  1,523
  1,719
  1,927
  2,147
  2,378
  2,621
  2,875
  3,112
  3,388
  3,676
  3,976
  4,288
  4,612
  4,948
  5,298
  5,661
  6,039
  6,432
  6,841
  7,267
  7,710
  8,172
  8,653
  9,155
  9,679
  10,226
  10,797
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  864
  1,009
  1,167
  1,339
  1,523
  1,719
  1,927
  2,147
  2,378
  2,621
  2,875
  3,112
  3,388
  3,676
  3,976
  4,288
  4,612
  4,948
  5,298
  5,661
  6,039
  6,432
  6,841
  7,267
  7,710
  8,172
  8,653
  9,155
  9,679
  10,226
  10,797
Operating income, $m
  111
  136
  162
  191
  222
  255
  290
  327
  366
  406
  449
  523
  569
  618
  668
  720
  775
  831
  890
  951
  1,015
  1,081
  1,149
  1,221
  1,295
  1,373
  1,454
  1,538
  1,626
  1,718
  1,814
EBITDA, $m
  174
  208
  242
  279
  318
  359
  404
  450
  500
  551
  605
  662
  721
  782
  846
  912
  981
  1,052
  1,127
  1,204
  1,284
  1,368
  1,455
  1,545
  1,640
  1,738
  1,840
  1,947
  2,058
  2,175
  2,296
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  44
  54
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
  145
  161
  178
  195
  214
  233
  253
  273
  295
  317
  341
  365
  390
  416
  443
  471
  501
  531
  563
  597
  632
  668
Earnings before tax, $m
  72
  91
  108
  127
  146
  167
  189
  212
  236
  262
  288
  345
  374
  404
  435
  468
  501
  536
  573
  611
  650
  691
  734
  778
  824
  872
  922
  975
  1,029
  1,087
  1,146
Tax expense, $m
  22
  25
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  93
  101
  109
  118
  126
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
Net income, $m
  48
  67
  79
  92
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  191
  210
  252
  273
  295
  318
  341
  366
  392
  418
  446
  475
  504
  535
  568
  602
  637
  673
  712
  751
  793
  837

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,238
  1,377
  1,600
  1,841
  2,099
  2,375
  2,668
  2,977
  3,302
  3,643
  4,001
  4,374
  4,763
  5,167
  5,589
  6,027
  6,482
  6,955
  7,446
  7,957
  8,489
  9,041
  9,616
  10,214
  10,837
  11,486
  12,162
  12,868
  13,604
  14,373
  15,175
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,173
  1,377
  1,600
  1,841
  2,099
  2,375
  2,668
  2,977
  3,302
  3,643
  4,001
  4,374
  4,763
  5,167
  5,589
  6,027
  6,482
  6,955
  7,446
  7,957
  8,489
  9,041
  9,616
  10,214
  10,837
  11,486
  12,162
  12,868
  13,604
  14,373
  15,175
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.831
  0.832
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
  0.831
Average production assets, $m
  335
  394
  457
  526
  600
  679
  763
  851
  944
  1,042
  1,144
  1,250
  1,361
  1,477
  1,598
  1,723
  1,853
  1,988
  2,129
  2,275
  2,427
  2,584
  2,749
  2,920
  3,098
  3,283
  3,477
  3,678
  3,889
  4,109
  4,338
Working capital, $m
  158
  119
  138
  159
  181
  205
  231
  257
  285
  315
  346
  378
  412
  447
  483
  521
  560
  601
  644
  688
  734
  781
  831
  883
  937
  993
  1,051
  1,112
  1,176
  1,242
  1,312
Total debt, $m
  755
  910
  1,089
  1,281
  1,488
  1,709
  1,944
  2,191
  2,452
  2,725
  3,012
  3,310
  3,622
  3,946
  4,284
  4,634
  4,999
  5,378
  5,772
  6,181
  6,606
  7,049
  7,509
  7,988
  8,487
  9,007
  9,549
  10,114
  10,704
  11,319
  11,962
Total liabilities, $m
  948
  1,103
  1,282
  1,474
  1,681
  1,902
  2,137
  2,384
  2,645
  2,918
  3,205
  3,503
  3,815
  4,139
  4,477
  4,827
  5,192
  5,571
  5,965
  6,374
  6,799
  7,242
  7,702
  8,181
  8,680
  9,200
  9,742
  10,307
  10,897
  11,512
  12,155
Total equity, $m
  290
  274
  318
  366
  418
  473
  531
  592
  657
  725
  796
  870
  948
  1,028
  1,112
  1,199
  1,290
  1,384
  1,482
  1,584
  1,689
  1,799
  1,914
  2,033
  2,157
  2,286
  2,420
  2,561
  2,707
  2,860
  3,020
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,238
  1,377
  1,600
  1,840
  2,099
  2,375
  2,668
  2,976
  3,302
  3,643
  4,001
  4,373
  4,763
  5,167
  5,589
  6,026
  6,482
  6,955
  7,447
  7,958
  8,488
  9,041
  9,616
  10,214
  10,837
  11,486
  12,162
  12,868
  13,604
  14,372
  15,175
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.603
  3.320
  3.420
  3.500
  3.560
  3.620
  3.660
  3.700
  3.730
  3.760
  3.780
  3.800
  3.820
  3.840
  3.850
  3.860
  3.880
  3.890
  3.890
  3.900
  3.910
  3.920
  3.920
  3.930
  3.940
  3.940
  3.950
  3.950
  3.950
  3.960
  3.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.192
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199
  0.199

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  67
  79
  92
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  191
  210
  252
  273
  295
  318
  341
  366
  392
  418
  446
  475
  504
  535
  568
  602
  637
  673
  712
  751
  793
  837
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  63
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  139
  151
  164
  178
  191
  206
  221
  237
  253
  270
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
  386
  409
  432
  457
  482
Funds from operations, $m
  100
  140
  159
  180
  203
  226
  252
  278
  307
  336
  367
  391
  424
  459
  495
  533
  572
  612
  655
  699
  744
  792
  841
  892
  946
  1,002
  1,060
  1,120
  1,184
  1,250
  1,319
Change in working capital, $m
  -20
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
Cash from operations, $m
  120
  313
  140
  159
  180
  203
  226
  252
  278
  306
  336
  359
  391
  424
  459
  495
  533
  572
  612
  654
  698
  744
  791
  841
  892
  945
  1,001
  1,059
  1,120
  1,183
  1,249
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -67
  -75
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -164
  -178
  -191
  -206
  -221
  -237
  -253
  -270
  -287
  -305
  -324
  -344
  -365
  -386
  -409
  -432
  -457
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -220
  -229
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -381
  -96
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -146
  -159
  -173
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -303
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -383
  -405
  -428
  -451
  -476
  -502
  -530
  -558
  -588
  -619
  -652
  -686
Free cash flow, $m
  -261
  217
  32
  40
  48
  57
  67
  79
  91
  104
  118
  125
  141
  157
  174
  192
  211
  231
  251
  272
  294
  316
  340
  364
  389
  416
  443
  471
  501
  531
  563
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  188
  163
  178
  193
  207
  221
  234
  248
  261
  273
  286
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  379
  394
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  643
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  184
  163
  178
  193
  207
  221
  234
  248
  261
  273
  286
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  379
  394
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  643
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -77
  380
  211
  232
  255
  278
  302
  326
  351
  377
  404
  424
  452
  481
  512
  543
  576
  609
  645
  681
  719
  759
  800
  843
  888
  936
  985
  1,036
  1,090
  1,147
  1,206
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  396
  166
  185
  203
  223
  244
  265
  287
  309
  333
  349
  375
  401
  428
  456
  485
  515
  547
  579
  613
  649
  686
  724
  764
  806
  850
  896
  944
  994
  1,047
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  362
  138
  137
  135
  130
  123
  115
  106
  96
  85
  73
  63
  53
  44
  35
  28
  22
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Headwaters Incorporated, a building materials company, provides products and services to building and construction materials sectors primarily in the United States and Canada. It operates through three segments: Building Products, Construction Materials, and Energy Technology. The Building Products segment designs, manufactures, and markets siding and exterior siding accessories, including decorative window shutters, gable vents, mounting blocks for exterior fixtures, roof ventilation, trim board and molding products, specialty siding products, and window well systems; professional tools, such as portable cutting and shaping tools; manufactured architectural stone products; resin-based composite, concrete, and stone-coated metal roofing products; vinyl windows; decking related products; and concrete-based masonry products comprising standard grey blocks, split and ground face blocks, and polished and textured blocks. This segment sells its products under the Eldorado Stone, Dutch Quality Stone, StoneCraft, InSpire, Aledora, Enviroshake, Entegra, Gerard, Allmet, and Metrotile brand names. This segment distributes its products through a network of distributors, such as masonry and stone suppliers, roofing and siding material distributors, fireplace suppliers, and other contractor specialty stores, as well as through national and regional retail home centers and direct sales. The Construction Materials segment manages and markets coal combustion products (CCP), including fly ash that is used as a replacement for Portland cement in various concrete applications, such as infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction; process and markets synthetic gypsum; and provides CCP disposal services, as well as services to electric utilities related to the management of CCPs. The Energy Technology segment develops and commercializes HCAT, a heavy oil upgrading technology. Headwaters Incorporated was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in South Jordan, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Headwaters (HW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.4
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 257.6%
Total Debt to Equity 260.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Equity 18.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
EBITDA Margin 17.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

HW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $975 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Headwaters. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Headwaters. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for HW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Headwaters, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Headwaters.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Headwaters.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Headwaters. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HW are equal to 34.4%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Headwaters operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HW is equal to 10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $290 million for Headwaters - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.957 million for Headwaters is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Headwaters at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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Stock chart of HW Financial statements of HW Annual reports of HW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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