Intrinsic value of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling - HY

Previous Close

$67.85

  Intrinsic Value

$77.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+14%

  Value-price divergence*

-42%

Previous close

$67.85

 
Intrinsic value

$77.66

 
Up/down potential

+14%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-42%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of HY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.31
  18.00
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
Revenue, $m
  2,570
  3,033
  3,539
  4,089
  4,681
  5,314
  5,987
  6,700
  7,452
  8,242
  9,069
  9,933
  10,835
  11,775
  12,753
  13,770
  14,827
  15,925
  17,067
  18,253
  19,486
  20,769
  22,102
  23,491
  24,936
  26,441
  28,010
  29,646
  31,352
  33,133
  34,992
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,910
  3,396
  3,922
  4,489
  5,096
  5,741
  6,424
  7,144
  7,901
  8,693
  9,516
  10,380
  11,281
  12,217
  13,192
  14,204
  15,257
  16,350
  17,487
  18,668
  19,897
  21,174
  22,504
  23,889
  25,331
  26,834
  28,401
  30,036
  31,742
  33,523
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,535
  2,910
  3,396
  3,922
  4,489
  5,096
  5,741
  6,424
  7,144
  7,901
  8,693
  9,516
  10,380
  11,281
  12,217
  13,192
  14,204
  15,257
  16,350
  17,487
  18,668
  19,897
  21,174
  22,504
  23,889
  25,331
  26,834
  28,401
  30,036
  31,742
  33,523
Operating income, $m
  35
  122
  143
  167
  191
  218
  246
  276
  308
  341
  376
  417
  455
  494
  535
  578
  622
  669
  717
  766
  818
  872
  928
  986
  1,047
  1,110
  1,176
  1,245
  1,316
  1,391
  1,469
EBITDA, $m
  74
  157
  183
  211
  242
  275
  309
  346
  385
  426
  469
  513
  560
  609
  659
  712
  766
  823
  882
  943
  1,007
  1,073
  1,142
  1,214
  1,289
  1,367
  1,448
  1,532
  1,620
  1,712
  1,809
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  6
  11
  16
  22
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  148
  160
  172
  186
  199
  213
  228
  243
  259
  276
  293
  312
  331
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  116
  133
  150
  169
  190
  211
  234
  258
  283
  310
  342
  371
  401
  432
  464
  498
  533
  569
  606
  646
  686
  729
  773
  819
  867
  917
  969
  1,023
  1,079
  1,139
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  76
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  262
  276
  291
  307
Net income, $m
  43
  85
  97
  110
  124
  138
  154
  171
  188
  207
  226
  250
  271
  293
  315
  339
  363
  389
  415
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  598
  633
  669
  707
  747
  788
  831

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,287
  1,468
  1,713
  1,979
  2,266
  2,572
  2,898
  3,243
  3,607
  3,989
  4,390
  4,808
  5,245
  5,699
  6,173
  6,665
  7,177
  7,708
  8,261
  8,835
  9,432
  10,053
  10,698
  11,370
  12,070
  12,798
  13,558
  14,349
  15,175
  16,037
  16,937
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,244
  1,468
  1,713
  1,979
  2,266
  2,572
  2,898
  3,243
  3,607
  3,989
  4,390
  4,808
  5,245
  5,699
  6,173
  6,665
  7,177
  7,708
  8,261
  8,835
  9,432
  10,053
  10,698
  11,370
  12,070
  12,798
  13,558
  14,349
  15,175
  16,037
  16,937
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
  2.066
Average production assets, $m
  250
  294
  343
  397
  454
  515
  581
  650
  723
  799
  880
  964
  1,051
  1,142
  1,237
  1,336
  1,438
  1,545
  1,655
  1,771
  1,890
  2,015
  2,144
  2,279
  2,419
  2,565
  2,717
  2,876
  3,041
  3,214
  3,394
Working capital, $m
  233
  376
  439
  507
  580
  659
  742
  831
  924
  1,022
  1,125
  1,232
  1,344
  1,460
  1,581
  1,707
  1,839
  1,975
  2,116
  2,263
  2,416
  2,575
  2,741
  2,913
  3,092
  3,279
  3,473
  3,676
  3,888
  4,108
  4,339
Total debt, $m
  211
  308
  462
  629
  808
  1,001
  1,205
  1,421
  1,650
  1,889
  2,140
  2,403
  2,676
  2,962
  3,258
  3,567
  3,888
  4,221
  4,567
  4,928
  5,302
  5,691
  6,096
  6,517
  6,956
  7,412
  7,889
  8,385
  8,903
  9,443
  10,008
Total liabilities, $m
  823
  920
  1,074
  1,241
  1,420
  1,613
  1,817
  2,033
  2,262
  2,501
  2,752
  3,015
  3,288
  3,574
  3,870
  4,179
  4,500
  4,833
  5,179
  5,540
  5,914
  6,303
  6,708
  7,129
  7,568
  8,024
  8,501
  8,997
  9,515
  10,055
  10,620
Total equity, $m
  464
  548
  639
  738
  845
  959
  1,081
  1,210
  1,345
  1,488
  1,637
  1,793
  1,956
  2,126
  2,302
  2,486
  2,677
  2,875
  3,081
  3,295
  3,518
  3,750
  3,990
  4,241
  4,502
  4,774
  5,057
  5,352
  5,660
  5,982
  6,318
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,287
  1,468
  1,713
  1,979
  2,265
  2,572
  2,898
  3,243
  3,607
  3,989
  4,389
  4,808
  5,244
  5,700
  6,172
  6,665
  7,177
  7,708
  8,260
  8,835
  9,432
  10,053
  10,698
  11,370
  12,070
  12,798
  13,558
  14,349
  15,175
  16,037
  16,938
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.455
  0.560
  0.720
  0.850
  0.960
  1.040
  1.110
  1.180
  1.230
  1.270
  1.310
  1.340
  1.370
  1.390
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373
  0.373

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  85
  97
  110
  124
  138
  154
  171
  188
  207
  226
  250
  271
  293
  315
  339
  363
  389
  415
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  598
  633
  669
  707
  747
  788
  831
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  35
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  154
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  228
  242
  256
  272
  288
  304
  321
  339
Funds from operations, $m
  -157
  119
  136
  155
  174
  195
  217
  241
  266
  292
  319
  346
  376
  407
  439
  472
  507
  543
  581
  620
  660
  703
  746
  792
  840
  889
  941
  995
  1,051
  1,109
  1,171
Change in working capital, $m
  -108
  57
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
Cash from operations, $m
  -49
  62
  73
  86
  101
  117
  134
  153
  173
  194
  216
  239
  264
  290
  318
  346
  376
  407
  439
  473
  507
  544
  581
  620
  660
  702
  746
  792
  839
  889
  940
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -96
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -166
  -177
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -228
  -242
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -321
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -145
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -106
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -349
  -368
  -388
  -408
  -431
  -454
  -477
  -501
Free cash flow, $m
  -194
  -7
  -5
  -1
  4
  10
  17
  25
  35
  45
  56
  67
  80
  94
  109
  124
  140
  157
  174
  192
  211
  230
  250
  271
  292
  315
  338
  361
  386
  412
  438
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  140
  154
  167
  180
  192
  204
  216
  228
  240
  251
  262
  274
  285
  297
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  374
  389
  405
  421
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  97
  140
  154
  167
  180
  192
  204
  216
  228
  240
  251
  262
  274
  285
  297
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  374
  389
  405
  421
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -93
  133
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  242
  263
  285
  307
  329
  354
  379
  405
  433
  461
  490
  520
  552
  585
  619
  655
  692
  731
  771
  814
  858
  904
  952
  1,003
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -84
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -336
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  50
  57
  66
  76
  88
  100
  113
  127
  142
  158
  173
  191
  209
  229
  249
  270
  292
  314
  338
  362
  388
  414
  442
  470
  500
  530
  563
  596
  631
  667
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  47
  51
  56
  60
  64
  67
  70
  71
  72
  72
  70
  67
  64
  60
  56
  51
  45
  40
  35
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, sells, and services a line of lift trucks and aftermarket parts in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: the Americas, EMEA, JAPIC, and Nuvera. It manufactures components, such as frames, masts, and transmissions; and assembles lift trucks. The company markets its products under the Hyster and Yale brand names to independent Hyster and Yale retail dealerships. It also sells aftermarket parts under the UNISOURCE and PREMIER brands to Hyster and Yale dealers for the service of competitor lift trucks. Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Hyster-Yale Materials Handling (HY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 17.7%
Total Debt to Equity 45.5%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Effective Tax Rate -10.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Payout Ratio 44.2%

HY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the HY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2570 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Hyster-Yale Materials Handling. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our HY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for HY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of HY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for HY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Hyster-Yale Materials Handling.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Hyster-Yale Materials Handling. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the HY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for HY are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Hyster-Yale Materials Handling operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for HY is equal to 12.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $464 million for Hyster-Yale Materials Handling - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.164 million for Hyster-Yale Materials Handling is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Hyster-Yale Materials Handling at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hyster-Yale Gets a Big Bottom-Line Lift   [07:09AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hyster-Yale Materials posts 2Q profit   [12:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hyster-Yale Starts 2017 Strong   [08:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hyster-Yale Materials posts 1Q profit   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Yale Expands Driven by Balyo Robotic Lift Truck Lineup   [Mar-09-17 08:05AM  Marketwired]
▶ Hyster-Yale Loses Its Lift -- for Now   [Feb-28-17 06:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Hyster-Yale Loses Its Lift -- for Now   [06:57PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hyster-Yale Materials posts 4Q profit   [06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hyster-Yale Takes a Big Hit on Its Bottom Line   [Nov-01-16 09:38PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hyster-Yale Successfully Weathers Another Tough Quarter   [Aug-11-16 03:27PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of HY Financial statements of HY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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