Intrinsic value of Integra LifeSciences Holdings - IART

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$43.74

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$43.74

 
Intrinsic value

$18.79

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IART stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  992
  1,054
  1,118
  1,184
  1,254
  1,326
  1,402
  1,481
  1,564
  1,650
  1,740
  1,835
  1,933
  2,036
  2,144
  2,257
  2,376
  2,500
  2,630
  2,766
  2,909
  3,059
  3,216
  3,380
  3,553
  3,734
  3,924
  4,123
  4,332
  4,551
  4,782
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  723
  764
  806
  850
  897
  945
  995
  1,048
  1,103
  1,160
  1,169
  1,232
  1,298
  1,367
  1,439
  1,515
  1,594
  1,677
  1,763
  1,854
  1,950
  2,050
  2,155
  2,265
  2,380
  2,501
  2,628
  2,762
  2,901
  3,048
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  204
  209
  214
  220
  225
  231
  237
  242
  249
  255
  261
  268
  274
  281
  288
  295
  303
  310
  318
  326
  334
  343
  351
  360
  369
  378
  388
  397
  407
  417
Total operating expenses, $m
  877
  927
  973
  1,020
  1,070
  1,122
  1,176
  1,232
  1,290
  1,352
  1,415
  1,430
  1,500
  1,572
  1,648
  1,727
  1,810
  1,897
  1,987
  2,081
  2,180
  2,284
  2,393
  2,506
  2,625
  2,749
  2,879
  3,016
  3,159
  3,308
  3,465
Operating income, $m
  115
  127
  145
  164
  184
  205
  226
  249
  273
  299
  325
  404
  433
  464
  496
  530
  566
  603
  643
  685
  728
  775
  823
  874
  928
  985
  1,044
  1,107
  1,173
  1,243
  1,316
EBITDA, $m
  188
  223
  243
  265
  288
  312
  337
  363
  391
  420
  450
  482
  515
  550
  587
  626
  667
  709
  754
  802
  852
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,079
  1,143
  1,211
  1,282
  1,357
  1,436
  1,519
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  104
  120
  136
  154
  172
  192
  212
  233
  256
  279
  355
  381
  408
  437
  468
  499
  533
  568
  605
  645
  686
  729
  775
  823
  874
  927
  984
  1,043
  1,105
  1,171
Tax expense, $m
  15
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  135
  144
  153
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  266
  282
  298
  316
Net income, $m
  75
  76
  87
  100
  112
  126
  140
  155
  170
  187
  204
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  365
  389
  415
  442
  471
  501
  532
  566
  601
  638
  677
  718
  761
  807
  855

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,808
  1,813
  1,924
  2,038
  2,158
  2,283
  2,413
  2,549
  2,692
  2,840
  2,995
  3,157
  3,327
  3,505
  3,691
  3,886
  4,089
  4,303
  4,527
  4,761
  5,007
  5,265
  5,535
  5,818
  6,115
  6,427
  6,754
  7,097
  7,456
  7,834
  8,230
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,706
  1,813
  1,924
  2,038
  2,158
  2,283
  2,413
  2,549
  2,692
  2,840
  2,995
  3,157
  3,327
  3,505
  3,691
  3,886
  4,089
  4,303
  4,527
  4,761
  5,007
  5,265
  5,535
  5,818
  6,115
  6,427
  6,754
  7,097
  7,456
  7,834
  8,230
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
Average production assets, $m
  694
  736
  781
  828
  876
  927
  980
  1,035
  1,093
  1,153
  1,216
  1,282
  1,351
  1,423
  1,499
  1,578
  1,661
  1,748
  1,838
  1,934
  2,033
  2,138
  2,248
  2,363
  2,483
  2,610
  2,743
  2,882
  3,028
  3,181
  3,342
Working capital, $m
  371
  285
  303
  321
  340
  359
  380
  401
  424
  447
  472
  497
  524
  552
  581
  612
  644
  678
  713
  750
  788
  829
  871
  916
  963
  1,012
  1,063
  1,117
  1,174
  1,233
  1,296
Total debt, $m
  665
  725
  788
  853
  921
  991
  1,065
  1,143
  1,223
  1,307
  1,395
  1,487
  1,584
  1,684
  1,790
  1,900
  2,016
  2,137
  2,264
  2,397
  2,536
  2,682
  2,835
  2,996
  3,164
  3,341
  3,526
  3,721
  3,925
  4,139
  4,363
Total liabilities, $m
  968
  1,028
  1,091
  1,156
  1,224
  1,294
  1,368
  1,446
  1,526
  1,610
  1,698
  1,790
  1,887
  1,987
  2,093
  2,203
  2,319
  2,440
  2,567
  2,700
  2,839
  2,985
  3,138
  3,299
  3,467
  3,644
  3,829
  4,024
  4,228
  4,442
  4,666
Total equity, $m
  840
  785
  833
  883
  934
  989
  1,045
  1,104
  1,165
  1,230
  1,297
  1,367
  1,441
  1,518
  1,598
  1,682
  1,771
  1,863
  1,960
  2,062
  2,168
  2,280
  2,397
  2,519
  2,648
  2,783
  2,924
  3,073
  3,229
  3,392
  3,564
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,808
  1,813
  1,924
  2,039
  2,158
  2,283
  2,413
  2,550
  2,691
  2,840
  2,995
  3,157
  3,328
  3,505
  3,691
  3,885
  4,090
  4,303
  4,527
  4,762
  5,007
  5,265
  5,535
  5,818
  6,115
  6,427
  6,753
  7,097
  7,457
  7,834
  8,230
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.792
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433
  0.433

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  76
  87
  100
  112
  126
  140
  155
  170
  187
  204
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  365
  389
  415
  442
  471
  501
  532
  566
  601
  638
  677
  718
  761
  807
  855
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  171
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  269
  288
  308
  329
  337
  360
  384
  410
  437
  465
  495
  526
  559
  594
  630
  669
  709
  751
  796
  843
  893
  945
  1,000
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  244
  168
  183
  198
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  311
  333
  356
  381
  406
  433
  461
  491
  522
  555
  590
  626
  664
  705
  747
  792
  839
  888
  940
  995
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -43
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -321
  -337
  -354
Free cash flow, $m
  73
  159
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  171
  172
  187
  202
  219
  236
  255
  274
  294
  316
  338
  362
  387
  413
  441
  470
  501
  533
  567
  603
  641
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  219
  141
  154
  167
  180
  195
  210
  225
  242
  259
  264
  283
  303
  324
  347
  370
  395
  421
  449
  477
  508
  540
  574
  609
  647
  686
  728
  771
  817
  866
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -89
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -172
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  274
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  178
  192
  193
  209
  226
  244
  262
  282
  303
  324
  347
  371
  396
  423
  451
  481
  512
  545
  579
  616
  654
  694
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  257
  82
  84
  85
  85
  84
  82
  79
  75
  70
  61
  56
  51
  45
  39
  34
  29
  24
  19
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets surgical implants and medical instruments for use in neurosurgery, extremity reconstruction, orthopedics, and general surgery. The company operates through two segments, Specialty Surgical Solutions; and Orthopedics and Tissue Technologies. It offers neurosurgery and critical care products, including tissue ablation equipment, dural repair products, cerebral spinal fluid management devices, intracranial monitoring equipment, and cranial stabilization equipment. The company also sells approximately 60,000 instrument patterns, and surgical and lighting products to hospitals, surgery centers, and dental, podiatry, and veterinary offices. In addition, it provides regenerative technology products for the treatment of acute and chronic wounds; and surgical tissue repair products for hernia repair, peripheral nerve repair and protection, and tendon repair. Further, the company sells hardware products, such as bone and joint fixation and joint replacement devices, implants, and instruments, which provide for the orthopedic reconstruction of bone in the hand, wrist, elbow, and shoulder, and the foot, ankle, and leg below the knee in the extremity bone and joint reconstruction procedures. It offers its products directly through various sales forces and other distribution channels in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Plainsboro, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Integra LifeSciences Holdings (IART)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.6
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 47.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 79.2%
Total Debt to Equity 79.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Operating Margin 11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

IART stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IART stock intrinsic value calculation we used $992 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Integra LifeSciences Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Integra LifeSciences Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IART stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for IART is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Integra LifeSciences Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Integra LifeSciences Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IART stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $199 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IART stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Integra LifeSciences Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Integra LifeSciences Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IART stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IART are equal to 69.9%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Integra LifeSciences Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IART is equal to 27.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $840 million for Integra LifeSciences Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.531 million for Integra LifeSciences Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Integra LifeSciences Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Integra Bids $1.05 Billion for J&J Neurosurgery Business   [08:44AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Integra LifeSciences Buys Derma Sciences for $204M   [Jan-12-17 11:15AM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of IART Financial statements of IART
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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