Intrinsic value of Installed Building Products - IBP

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$48.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$48.95

 
Intrinsic value

$113.73

 
Up/down potential

+132%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IBP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.17
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  863
  1,150
  1,501
  1,920
  2,412
  2,981
  3,628
  4,355
  5,162
  6,049
  7,014
  8,057
  9,176
  10,368
  11,632
  12,967
  14,371
  15,843
  17,383
  18,990
  20,666
  22,410
  24,224
  26,111
  28,071
  30,108
  32,225
  34,426
  36,714
  39,093
  41,569
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,026
  1,335
  1,705
  2,140
  2,641
  3,213
  3,854
  4,567
  5,349
  6,202
  7,111
  8,098
  9,151
  10,266
  11,444
  12,684
  13,983
  15,342
  16,761
  18,239
  19,779
  21,380
  23,045
  24,776
  26,574
  28,442
  30,384
  32,404
  34,504
  36,689
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  797
  1,053
  1,362
  1,733
  2,169
  2,670
  3,243
  3,885
  4,599
  5,381
  6,235
  7,145
  8,133
  9,187
  10,303
  11,482
  12,723
  14,023
  15,383
  16,803
  18,282
  19,823
  21,425
  23,091
  24,823
  26,622
  28,491
  30,435
  32,456
  34,557
  36,744
Operating income, $m
  66
  98
  138
  187
  244
  310
  385
  470
  564
  667
  779
  912
  1,042
  1,181
  1,329
  1,485
  1,648
  1,820
  2,000
  2,188
  2,384
  2,587
  2,799
  3,019
  3,248
  3,486
  3,734
  3,991
  4,258
  4,536
  4,826
EBITDA, $m
  101
  133
  181
  238
  306
  384
  473
  573
  684
  807
  940
  1,084
  1,238
  1,403
  1,577
  1,761
  1,955
  2,158
  2,371
  2,593
  2,824
  3,065
  3,316
  3,576
  3,847
  4,129
  4,421
  4,725
  5,041
  5,370
  5,712
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  9
  13
  18
  24
  31
  38
  47
  57
  67
  79
  91
  104
  119
  134
  150
  166
  184
  202
  221
  241
  262
  284
  306
  330
  354
  379
  405
  433
  461
Earnings before tax, $m
  60
  92
  129
  174
  226
  286
  354
  431
  517
  610
  712
  833
  951
  1,077
  1,210
  1,351
  1,499
  1,654
  1,816
  1,986
  2,162
  2,346
  2,537
  2,736
  2,942
  3,157
  3,380
  3,612
  3,853
  4,104
  4,364
Tax expense, $m
  22
  25
  35
  47
  61
  77
  96
  116
  139
  165
  192
  225
  257
  291
  327
  365
  405
  447
  490
  536
  584
  633
  685
  739
  794
  852
  913
  975
  1,040
  1,108
  1,178
Net income, $m
  38
  67
  94
  127
  165
  209
  259
  315
  377
  446
  520
  608
  694
  786
  883
  986
  1,094
  1,207
  1,326
  1,449
  1,578
  1,712
  1,852
  1,997
  2,148
  2,304
  2,467
  2,637
  2,813
  2,996
  3,186

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  462
  597
  779
  997
  1,252
  1,548
  1,884
  2,261
  2,680
  3,141
  3,642
  4,183
  4,764
  5,383
  6,039
  6,732
  7,461
  8,226
  9,025
  9,860
  10,730
  11,635
  12,578
  13,557
  14,575
  15,633
  16,732
  17,874
  19,062
  20,298
  21,583
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  448
  597
  779
  997
  1,252
  1,548
  1,884
  2,261
  2,680
  3,141
  3,642
  4,183
  4,764
  5,383
  6,039
  6,732
  7,461
  8,226
  9,025
  9,860
  10,730
  11,635
  12,578
  13,557
  14,575
  15,633
  16,732
  17,874
  19,062
  20,298
  21,583
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.926
  1.926
  1.927
  1.926
  1.927
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
  1.926
Average production assets, $m
  111
  147
  192
  246
  309
  382
  464
  557
  661
  774
  898
  1,031
  1,174
  1,327
  1,489
  1,660
  1,839
  2,028
  2,225
  2,431
  2,645
  2,868
  3,101
  3,342
  3,593
  3,854
  4,125
  4,407
  4,699
  5,004
  5,321
Working capital, $m
  62
  95
  125
  159
  200
  247
  301
  361
  428
  502
  582
  669
  762
  861
  965
  1,076
  1,193
  1,315
  1,443
  1,576
  1,715
  1,860
  2,011
  2,167
  2,330
  2,499
  2,675
  2,857
  3,047
  3,245
  3,450
Total debt, $m
  167
  251
  370
  513
  681
  874
  1,095
  1,342
  1,617
  1,919
  2,248
  2,603
  2,984
  3,390
  3,821
  4,275
  4,754
  5,255
  5,780
  6,327
  6,898
  7,492
  8,110
  8,752
  9,420
  10,114
  10,835
  11,585
  12,364
  13,174
  14,017
Total liabilities, $m
  308
  392
  511
  654
  822
  1,015
  1,236
  1,483
  1,758
  2,060
  2,389
  2,744
  3,125
  3,531
  3,962
  4,416
  4,895
  5,396
  5,921
  6,468
  7,039
  7,633
  8,251
  8,893
  9,561
  10,255
  10,976
  11,726
  12,505
  13,315
  14,158
Total equity, $m
  154
  205
  268
  343
  431
  532
  648
  778
  922
  1,080
  1,253
  1,439
  1,639
  1,852
  2,078
  2,316
  2,567
  2,830
  3,105
  3,392
  3,691
  4,003
  4,327
  4,664
  5,014
  5,378
  5,756
  6,149
  6,557
  6,982
  7,425
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  462
  597
  779
  997
  1,253
  1,547
  1,884
  2,261
  2,680
  3,140
  3,642
  4,183
  4,764
  5,383
  6,040
  6,732
  7,462
  8,226
  9,026
  9,860
  10,730
  11,636
  12,578
  13,557
  14,575
  15,633
  16,732
  17,875
  19,062
  20,297
  21,583
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.084
  1.220
  1.380
  1.500
  1.580
  1.640
  1.690
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.790
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  67
  94
  127
  165
  209
  259
  315
  377
  446
  520
  608
  694
  786
  883
  986
  1,094
  1,207
  1,326
  1,449
  1,578
  1,712
  1,852
  1,997
  2,148
  2,304
  2,467
  2,637
  2,813
  2,996
  3,186
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  35
  43
  52
  62
  74
  88
  104
  121
  140
  160
  172
  196
  221
  248
  277
  307
  338
  371
  405
  441
  478
  517
  557
  599
  642
  687
  734
  783
  834
  887
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  103
  137
  178
  227
  283
  347
  418
  498
  585
  680
  780
  890
  1,007
  1,132
  1,263
  1,401
  1,545
  1,697
  1,855
  2,019
  2,191
  2,369
  2,554
  2,747
  2,947
  3,155
  3,371
  3,596
  3,830
  4,073
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  60
  67
  74
  80
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  122
  108
  144
  186
  236
  293
  358
  431
  512
  600
  694
  797
  908
  1,027
  1,152
  1,284
  1,423
  1,569
  1,721
  1,880
  2,046
  2,218
  2,397
  2,584
  2,778
  2,979
  3,188
  3,406
  3,632
  3,867
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -25
  -32
  -41
  -51
  -64
  -77
  -93
  -110
  -129
  -150
  -172
  -196
  -221
  -248
  -277
  -307
  -338
  -371
  -405
  -441
  -478
  -517
  -557
  -599
  -642
  -687
  -734
  -783
  -834
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -114
  -124
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -317
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -80
  -55
  -70
  -86
  -104
  -124
  -147
  -170
  -196
  -224
  -253
  -283
  -315
  -349
  -383
  -419
  -457
  -495
  -535
  -577
  -619
  -664
  -710
  -758
  -808
  -860
  -913
  -969
  -1,027
  -1,088
  -1,151
Free cash flow, $m
  -7
  67
  39
  58
  82
  112
  147
  188
  235
  288
  348
  410
  482
  560
  644
  733
  828
  928
  1,034
  1,145
  1,261
  1,382
  1,508
  1,639
  1,776
  1,918
  2,066
  2,219
  2,379
  2,544
  2,717
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  98
  119
  143
  168
  194
  220
  248
  275
  302
  329
  355
  381
  406
  431
  455
  478
  501
  524
  548
  571
  594
  618
  642
  668
  694
  721
  749
  779
  810
  843
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  98
  119
  143
  168
  194
  220
  248
  275
  302
  329
  355
  381
  406
  431
  455
  478
  501
  524
  548
  571
  594
  618
  642
  668
  694
  721
  749
  779
  810
  843
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  165
  158
  201
  250
  305
  367
  435
  510
  590
  676
  766
  863
  966
  1,074
  1,188
  1,306
  1,430
  1,558
  1,692
  1,831
  1,976
  2,126
  2,282
  2,444
  2,612
  2,787
  2,969
  3,158
  3,355
  3,560
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -51
  -63
  -75
  -88
  -102
  -116
  -130
  -144
  -158
  -172
  -186
  -200
  -213
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -425
  -442
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  113
  95
  126
  162
  204
  252
  305
  366
  432
  504
  579
  663
  753
  848
  949
  1,055
  1,167
  1,283
  1,405
  1,532
  1,664
  1,802
  1,945
  2,094
  2,248
  2,409
  2,576
  2,749
  2,930
  3,118
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  107
  85
  105
  125
  146
  165
  182
  197
  209
  216
  218
  217
  212
  203
  191
  176
  159
  141
  122
  104
  86
  70
  56
  44
  33
  24
  18
  12
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Installed Building Products, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation of insulation, garage doors, rain gutters, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors, and other products in the continental United States. It offers a range of insulation materials, such as fiberglass insulation, spray foam insulation, and cellulose insulation materials. The company is also involved in the installation of insulation and sealant materials in various areas of a structure, which includes basement and crawl spaces, building envelopes, attics, and acoustical insulations. It serves homebuilders, multi-family and commercial builders, individual homeowners, and repair and remodeling contractors. The company was formerly known as CCIB Holdco, Inc. Installed Building Products, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Installed Building Products (IBP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.6
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 10
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 55.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 92.9%
Total Debt to Equity 108.4%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 28.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

IBP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IBP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $863 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Installed Building Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Installed Building Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IBP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for IBP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Installed Building Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Installed Building Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IBP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IBP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Installed Building Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Installed Building Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IBP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IBP are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Installed Building Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IBP is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $154 million for Installed Building Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.074 million for Installed Building Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Installed Building Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Installed Building Products posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 07:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Installed Building Products posts 4Q profit   [07:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Homebuilders see worst day in three years   [Sep-09-16 04:52PM  at CNBC]
▶ S&P 500 Retakes 50-Day Line; Apple Injects Fuel Into Rally   [May-16-16 04:12PM  at Investor's Business Daily]
Stock chart of IBP Financial statements of IBP Annual reports of IBP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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