Intrinsic value of ICF International - ICFI

Previous Close

$45.95

  Intrinsic Value

$92.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+102%

  Value-price divergence*

-20%

Previous close

$45.95

 
Intrinsic value

$92.97

 
Up/down potential

+102%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-20%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ICFI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.68
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,185
  1,235
  1,288
  1,344
  1,403
  1,466
  1,532
  1,602
  1,676
  1,754
  1,837
  1,923
  2,015
  2,111
  2,212
  2,319
  2,431
  2,549
  2,673
  2,803
  2,940
  3,084
  3,236
  3,395
  3,562
  3,738
  3,923
  4,117
  4,321
  4,535
  4,760
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,045
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,228
  1,281
  1,336
  1,395
  1,457
  1,522
  1,522
  1,594
  1,670
  1,750
  1,835
  1,923
  2,017
  2,115
  2,218
  2,326
  2,441
  2,560
  2,686
  2,819
  2,958
  3,104
  3,258
  3,419
  3,589
  3,767
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  100
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  125
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  177
  182
  186
  191
  196
  201
  206
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,102
  1,145
  1,190
  1,238
  1,287
  1,339
  1,395
  1,452
  1,514
  1,579
  1,647
  1,651
  1,726
  1,805
  1,888
  1,977
  2,068
  2,166
  2,268
  2,375
  2,487
  2,606
  2,729
  2,859
  2,996
  3,140
  3,290
  3,449
  3,615
  3,790
  3,973
Operating income, $m
  83
  89
  97
  107
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  189
  273
  289
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
  428
  453
  479
  507
  536
  566
  599
  633
  668
  706
  746
  788
EBITDA, $m
  112
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  279
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  391
  413
  437
  462
  488
  516
  546
  577
  610
  644
  681
  719
  760
  802
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
Earnings before tax, $m
  75
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  135
  147
  159
  172
  254
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  355
  375
  397
  419
  443
  468
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
  652
  689
  728
Tax expense, $m
  28
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  40
  43
  46
  69
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  134
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
Net income, $m
  47
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  306
  324
  342
  361
  382
  404
  427
  451
  476
  503
  531

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,086
  1,126
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,528
  1,599
  1,674
  1,753
  1,836
  1,924
  2,016
  2,114
  2,216
  2,323
  2,436
  2,555
  2,680
  2,812
  2,950
  3,095
  3,247
  3,408
  3,576
  3,753
  3,939
  4,134
  4,339
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,080
  1,126
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,528
  1,599
  1,674
  1,753
  1,836
  1,924
  2,016
  2,114
  2,216
  2,323
  2,436
  2,555
  2,680
  2,812
  2,950
  3,095
  3,247
  3,408
  3,576
  3,753
  3,939
  4,134
  4,339
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
  1.097
Average production assets, $m
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  333
  350
  367
  386
Working capital, $m
  102
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
  303
  318
  333
  350
  367
  386
Total debt, $m
  259
  280
  304
  328
  354
  382
  411
  442
  474
  508
  544
  582
  622
  665
  709
  756
  805
  856
  911
  968
  1,028
  1,091
  1,158
  1,228
  1,301
  1,378
  1,459
  1,544
  1,634
  1,728
  1,826
Total liabilities, $m
  520
  541
  565
  589
  615
  643
  672
  703
  735
  769
  805
  843
  883
  926
  970
  1,017
  1,066
  1,117
  1,172
  1,229
  1,289
  1,352
  1,419
  1,489
  1,562
  1,639
  1,720
  1,805
  1,895
  1,989
  2,087
Total equity, $m
  566
  584
  609
  636
  664
  693
  725
  758
  793
  830
  869
  910
  953
  999
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,206
  1,264
  1,326
  1,391
  1,459
  1,531
  1,606
  1,685
  1,769
  1,856
  1,948
  2,044
  2,146
  2,252
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,086
  1,125
  1,174
  1,225
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,528
  1,599
  1,674
  1,753
  1,836
  1,925
  2,017
  2,114
  2,216
  2,323
  2,436
  2,555
  2,680
  2,811
  2,950
  3,095
  3,247
  3,408
  3,576
  3,753
  3,939
  4,135
  4,339
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.458
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519
  0.519

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  306
  324
  342
  361
  382
  404
  427
  451
  476
  503
  531
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  72
  72
  72
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  74
  74
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  190
  199
  191
  202
  213
  226
  239
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  463
  489
  517
  545
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  184
  195
  206
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  304
  321
  339
  359
  379
  401
  423
  447
  473
  499
  527
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  119
  124
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  181
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  336
  355
  376
  397
  420
  444
  469
  495
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -67
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  292
  308
  326
  344
  364
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  505
  533
  563
  594
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -43
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  122
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  370
  391
  413
  437
  461
  488
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  116
  109
  107
  104
  101
  97
  93
  89
  84
  78
  66
  61
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ICF International, Inc. provides management, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally. The company researches, collects, and analyses critical policy, industry, and stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; provides assessment and advisory services on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges; and designs, develops, and manages plans, frameworks, programs, and tools that are principal to its clientsÂ’ business performance. It also identifies, defines, and implements technology-based systems and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies designed to match its clientsÂ’ business context; and informs and engages its clientsÂ’ constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and enterprise training and communications programs. ICF International, Inc. serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets. The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc. in 2006. ICF International, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ICF International (ICFI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.8%
Total Debt to Equity 45.8%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 0%

ICFI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ICFI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1185 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ICF International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ICF International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ICFI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for ICFI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ICF International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ICF International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ICFI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $98 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ICFI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ICF International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ICF International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ICFI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ICFI are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 26.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ICF International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ICFI is equal to 8.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $566 million for ICF International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.856 million for ICF International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ICF International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ICF meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ICF Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Selected to Support Global Climate Activities   [Jun-27-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 26th   [Jun-26-17 09:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Former ManpowerGroup Executive Joins ICF Board of Directors   [Jun-01-17 04:07PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Announces Amendment and Extension of Credit Facility   [May-18-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 15th   [May-15-17 11:01AM  Zacks]
▶ ICF tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ ICF Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-27-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ NTIS Selects ICF as Industry Partner for Data Innovation   [Jan-17-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ICF Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of ICFI Financial statements of ICFI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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