Intrinsic value of IDACORP - IDA

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$85.24

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$85.24

 
Intrinsic value

$38.46

 
Up/down potential

-55%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.63
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,258
  1,302
  1,346
  1,394
  1,446
  1,501
  1,560
  1,623
  1,690
  1,761
  1,837
  1,918
  2,003
  2,093
  2,188
  2,288
  2,394
  2,506
  2,623
  2,747
  2,878
  3,016
  3,161
  3,313
  3,473
  3,642
  3,819
  4,006
  4,202
  4,408
  4,625
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,013
  1,048
  1,085
  1,125
  1,168
  1,214
  1,263
  1,315
  1,370
  1,429
  1,492
  1,558
  1,628
  1,702
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,138
  2,239
  2,346
  2,459
  2,578
  2,702
  2,834
  2,972
  3,117
  3,269
  3,430
  3,598
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  990
  1,013
  1,048
  1,085
  1,125
  1,168
  1,214
  1,263
  1,315
  1,370
  1,429
  1,492
  1,558
  1,628
  1,702
  1,780
  1,862
  1,949
  2,041
  2,138
  2,239
  2,346
  2,459
  2,578
  2,702
  2,834
  2,972
  3,117
  3,269
  3,430
  3,598
Operating income, $m
  272
  289
  299
  309
  321
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  669
  702
  735
  771
  809
  848
  889
  933
  979
  1,027
EBITDA, $m
  419
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  510
  532
  556
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  726
  760
  796
  834
  874
  916
  960
  1,007
  1,055
  1,107
  1,161
  1,218
  1,278
  1,340
Interest expense (income), $m
  78
  77
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  469
  497
  526
Earnings before tax, $m
  235
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  247
  254
  260
  267
  274
  282
  291
  299
  308
  318
  328
  339
  350
  362
  374
  388
  401
  416
  431
  447
  464
  482
  500
Tax expense, $m
  37
  57
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  91
  95
  98
  101
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  135
Net income, $m
  198
  155
  158
  161
  165
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  247
  256
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  365

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,290
  6,416
  6,633
  6,867
  7,121
  7,393
  7,684
  7,994
  8,325
  8,677
  9,050
  9,446
  9,865
  10,308
  10,776
  11,271
  11,793
  12,343
  12,923
  13,534
  14,178
  14,856
  15,569
  16,320
  17,110
  17,941
  18,815
  19,734
  20,700
  21,716
  22,783
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,229
  6,416
  6,633
  6,867
  7,121
  7,393
  7,684
  7,994
  8,325
  8,677
  9,050
  9,446
  9,865
  10,308
  10,776
  11,271
  11,793
  12,343
  12,923
  13,534
  14,178
  14,856
  15,569
  16,320
  17,110
  17,941
  18,815
  19,734
  20,700
  21,716
  22,783
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.202
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
Average production assets, $m
  428
  442
  456
  473
  490
  509
  529
  550
  573
  597
  623
  650
  679
  709
  742
  776
  812
  849
  889
  931
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,235
  1,295
  1,358
  1,425
  1,494
  1,568
Working capital, $m
  190
  156
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  287
  301
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  398
  417
  437
  458
  481
  504
  529
  555
Total debt, $m
  1,767
  1,865
  2,008
  2,164
  2,331
  2,510
  2,702
  2,907
  3,126
  3,358
  3,604
  3,865
  4,142
  4,434
  4,743
  5,070
  5,414
  5,777
  6,160
  6,564
  6,989
  7,436
  7,907
  8,402
  8,924
  9,472
  10,049
  10,655
  11,293
  11,963
  12,668
Total liabilities, $m
  4,136
  4,234
  4,377
  4,533
  4,700
  4,879
  5,071
  5,276
  5,495
  5,727
  5,973
  6,234
  6,511
  6,803
  7,112
  7,439
  7,783
  8,146
  8,529
  8,933
  9,358
  9,805
  10,276
  10,771
  11,293
  11,841
  12,418
  13,024
  13,662
  14,332
  15,037
Total equity, $m
  2,154
  2,181
  2,255
  2,335
  2,421
  2,514
  2,612
  2,718
  2,831
  2,950
  3,077
  3,212
  3,354
  3,505
  3,664
  3,832
  4,009
  4,197
  4,394
  4,602
  4,821
  5,051
  5,294
  5,549
  5,818
  6,100
  6,397
  6,710
  7,038
  7,383
  7,746
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,290
  6,415
  6,632
  6,868
  7,121
  7,393
  7,683
  7,994
  8,326
  8,677
  9,050
  9,446
  9,865
  10,308
  10,776
  11,271
  11,792
  12,343
  12,923
  13,535
  14,179
  14,856
  15,570
  16,320
  17,111
  17,941
  18,815
  19,734
  20,700
  21,715
  22,783
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.820
  0.860
  0.890
  0.930
  0.960
  1.000
  1.030
  1.070
  1.100
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.270
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  198
  155
  158
  161
  165
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  206
  212
  218
  225
  232
  240
  247
  256
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
  315
  326
  339
  352
  365
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  147
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
Funds from operations, $m
  340
  243
  250
  256
  263
  270
  278
  286
  295
  304
  314
  325
  336
  348
  360
  374
  387
  402
  417
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  529
  551
  574
  598
  624
  651
  679
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  348
  241
  244
  250
  257
  263
  271
  279
  287
  296
  305
  315
  326
  337
  349
  362
  375
  389
  403
  419
  435
  452
  470
  489
  509
  530
  552
  576
  600
  626
  653
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
New CAPEX, $m
  -297
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -297
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -372
Free cash flow, $m
  51
  141
  141
  143
  145
  147
  149
  152
  154
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  184
  188
  194
  199
  204
  210
  217
  223
  230
  238
  245
  253
  262
  271
  280
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  121
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  521
  548
  577
  606
  638
  670
  704
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  121
  143
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  292
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  521
  548
  577
  606
  638
  670
  704
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  263
  284
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  444
  463
  484
  505
  528
  552
  576
  602
  629
  658
  688
  719
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  941
  985
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -96
  -65
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -243
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -363
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  235
  210
  218
  226
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  325
  337
  351
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  483
  504
  525
  548
  571
  596
  622
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  219
  181
  172
  162
  152
  141
  129
  118
  106
  94
  83
  72
  62
  52
  43
  36
  29
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

IDACORP, Inc., through its subsidiary, Idaho Power Company, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, purchase, and sale of electric energy in the United States. It operates 17 hydroelectric generating plants located in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon, as well as 3 natural gas-fired plants in southern Idaho; and owns interests in 3 coal-fired steam electric generating plants located in Wyoming, Nevada, and Oregon. As of December 31, 2016, the company provided electric service to approximately 535,000 general business customers; and had a network of approximately 4,861 pole-miles of high-voltage transmission lines, 24 step-up transmission substations located at power plants, 24 transmission substations, 10 switching stations, 223 energized distribution substations, and approximately 27,263 pole-miles of distribution lines. Its principal commercial and industrial customers are involved in food processing, electronics and general manufacturing, agriculture, health care, and winter recreation. The company, through its other subsidiaries, invests in housing and other real estate investments. IDACORP, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDACORP (IDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 84.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 81%
Total Debt to Equity 82%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 36.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Operating Margin 21.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Net Profit Margin 15.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Effective Tax Rate 15.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Payout Ratio 53%

IDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1262 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDACORP. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDACORP. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for IDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDACORP, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDACORP.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for IDACORP.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDACORP. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDA are equal to 33.9%.

Life of production assets of 2.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDACORP operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDA is equal to 12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2154 million for IDACORP - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.386 million for IDACORP is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDACORP at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ IDACORP, Inc. Declares Dividend   [Apr-20-17 05:28PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [Feb-14-17 12:38PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Billionaire Ken Fishers Monster Q4 Moves   [12:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ IDACORP, Inc. Declares Dividend   [Jan-19-17 05:26PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is IDACORP Inc (IDA) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-16-16 10:45PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Smart Money Is Going Crazy for CoreCivic Inc (CXW)   [Nov-26-16 09:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ IDACORP, Inc. Declares Dividend   [Oct-20-16 06:25PM  PR Newswire]
▶ IDACORP, Inc. Declares Dividend   [Jul-21-16 05:31PM  PR Newswire]
▶ IdaCorp posts 1Q profit   [Apr-28-16 11:01AM  AP]
▶ IDACORP, Inc. Declares Dividend   [Apr-21-16 05:37PM  PR Newswire]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- IDACORP, Inc./   [Apr-13-16 01:15PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of IDA Financial statements of IDA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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