Intrinsic value of Industrial Services of America - IDSA

Previous Close

$1.72

  Intrinsic Value

$0.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

  Value-price divergence*

+32%

Previous close

$1.72

 
Intrinsic value

$0.38

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+32%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDSA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -19.57
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  37
  59
  91
  137
  198
  280
  385
  517
  678
  873
  1,103
  1,369
  1,674
  2,018
  2,401
  2,823
  3,284
  3,783
  4,319
  4,891
  5,499
  6,142
  6,819
  7,529
  8,272
  9,049
  9,859
  10,702
  11,579
  12,491
  13,440
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  70
  109
  163
  236
  333
  458
  614
  807
  1,038
  1,311
  1,628
  1,991
  2,399
  2,855
  3,357
  3,904
  4,498
  5,135
  5,816
  6,539
  7,303
  8,107
  8,952
  9,836
  10,759
  11,722
  12,725
  13,768
  14,852
  15,980
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  39
  70
  109
  163
  236
  333
  458
  614
  807
  1,038
  1,311
  1,628
  1,991
  2,399
  2,855
  3,357
  3,904
  4,498
  5,135
  5,816
  6,539
  7,303
  8,107
  8,952
  9,836
  10,759
  11,722
  12,725
  13,768
  14,852
  15,980
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -11
  -17
  -26
  -38
  -53
  -73
  -98
  -128
  -165
  -208
  -259
  -316
  -381
  -454
  -534
  -621
  -715
  -816
  -924
  -1,039
  -1,161
  -1,289
  -1,423
  -1,563
  -1,710
  -1,863
  -2,023
  -2,188
  -2,361
  -2,540
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -11
  -17
  -26
  -38
  -53
  -73
  -98
  -128
  -165
  -208
  -259
  -316
  -381
  -454
  -534
  -621
  -715
  -816
  -924
  -1,039
  -1,161
  -1,289
  -1,423
  -1,563
  -1,710
  -1,863
  -2,023
  -2,188
  -2,361
  -2,540
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  94
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -54
  -75
  -100
  -132
  -170
  -215
  -267
  -327
  -394
  -469
  -552
  -642
  -740
  -845
  -957
  -1,076
  -1,202
  -1,335
  -1,474
  -1,620
  -1,773
  -1,932
  -2,097
  -2,269
  -2,448
  -2,635
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -54
  -75
  -100
  -132
  -170
  -215
  -267
  -327
  -394
  -469
  -552
  -642
  -740
  -845
  -957
  -1,076
  -1,202
  -1,335
  -1,474
  -1,620
  -1,773
  -1,932
  -2,097
  -2,269
  -2,448
  -2,635

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  21
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,334
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,891
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  20
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,334
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,891
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.850
  1.844
  1.857
  1.851
  1.850
  1.854
  1.851
  1.853
  1.847
  1.850
  1.851
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  2
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  259
  305
  355
  409
  466
  528
  594
  663
  736
  813
  893
  977
  1,065
  1,156
  1,251
  1,349
  1,451
Total debt, $m
  6
  10
  17
  27
  40
  58
  80
  109
  144
  186
  235
  293
  359
  433
  516
  607
  707
  815
  931
  1,055
  1,186
  1,325
  1,471
  1,625
  1,786
  1,954
  2,129
  2,311
  2,501
  2,698
  2,903
Total liabilities, $m
  9
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  934
  1,058
  1,189
  1,328
  1,474
  1,628
  1,789
  1,957
  2,132
  2,314
  2,504
  2,701
  2,906
Total equity, $m
  12
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  125
  168
  220
  283
  358
  444
  543
  654
  779
  916
  1,065
  1,227
  1,401
  1,586
  1,784
  1,992
  2,211
  2,442
  2,683
  2,935
  3,197
  3,471
  3,755
  4,051
  4,359
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21
  32
  50
  74
  107
  152
  208
  280
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,090
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,335
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,685
  4,070
  4,472
  4,892
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.500
  0.510
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.550
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -54
  -75
  -100
  -132
  -170
  -215
  -267
  -327
  -394
  -469
  -552
  -642
  -740
  -845
  -957
  -1,076
  -1,202
  -1,335
  -1,474
  -1,620
  -1,773
  -1,932
  -2,097
  -2,269
  -2,448
  -2,635
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -6
  -11
  -18
  -26
  -38
  -54
  -75
  -100
  -132
  -170
  -215
  -267
  -327
  -394
  -469
  -552
  -642
  -740
  -845
  -957
  -1,076
  -1,202
  -1,335
  -1,474
  -1,620
  -1,773
  -1,932
  -2,097
  -2,269
  -2,448
  -2,635
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  102
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -45
  -63
  -86
  -115
  -150
  -191
  -240
  -296
  -360
  -431
  -510
  -597
  -692
  -794
  -903
  -1,019
  -1,142
  -1,272
  -1,408
  -1,551
  -1,701
  -1,857
  -2,019
  -2,188
  -2,364
  -2,547
  -2,737
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -45
  -63
  -86
  -115
  -150
  -191
  -240
  -296
  -360
  -431
  -510
  -597
  -692
  -794
  -903
  -1,019
  -1,142
  -1,272
  -1,408
  -1,551
  -1,701
  -1,857
  -2,019
  -2,188
  -2,364
  -2,547
  -2,737
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  74
  83
  91
  100
  108
  116
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  197
  205
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  19
  28
  41
  58
  81
  109
  143
  185
  233
  289
  354
  426
  505
  593
  689
  791
  901
  1,019
  1,143
  1,273
  1,411
  1,555
  1,705
  1,861
  2,025
  2,194
  2,371
  2,554
  2,744
  2,942
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  24
  35
  51
  71
  99
  132
  171
  220
  275
  339
  412
  492
  579
  676
  780
  891
  1,009
  1,135
  1,267
  1,404
  1,550
  1,701
  1,859
  2,022
  2,193
  2,369
  2,553
  2,744
  2,941
  3,147
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  10
  14
  20
  27
  35
  45
  57
  70
  84
  99
  115
  132
  149
  166
  183
  199
  216
  232
  248
  263
  278
  293
  307
  322
  336
  350
  365
  379
  395
  410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -19
  -28
  -41
  -58
  -81
  -109
  -143
  -185
  -233
  -289
  -354
  -426
  -505
  -593
  -689
  -791
  -901
  -1,019
  -1,143
  -1,273
  -1,411
  -1,555
  -1,705
  -1,861
  -2,025
  -2,194
  -2,371
  -2,554
  -2,744
  -2,942
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -14
  -22
  -32
  -45
  -63
  -86
  -115
  -149
  -190
  -238
  -294
  -357
  -427
  -506
  -592
  -686
  -787
  -895
  -1,010
  -1,133
  -1,262
  -1,398
  -1,540
  -1,689
  -1,844
  -2,006
  -2,174
  -2,350
  -2,532
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -63
  -59
  -53
  -47
  -41
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  42.0
  18.2
  8.1
  3.7
  1.8
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Industrial Services of America, Inc. collects, purchases, processes, and sells stainless steel, and ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metals to steel mini-mills, integrated steel makers, foundries, and refineries. The company purchases ferrous and non-ferrous scrap material from industrial and commercial generators of steel, iron, aluminum, copper, stainless steel, and other metals, as well as from scrap dealers and retail customers; and processes scrap metal through its sorting, cutting, and baling operations. It also buys, dismantles, and sells used auto parts. The company was founded in 1953 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Industrial Services of America (IDSA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.6
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 25%
Total Debt to Equity 50%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -11%
Return On Total Capital -18.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.6%
Return On Equity -22.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 2.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
EBITDA Margin -2.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Operating Margin -5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Net Profit Margin -8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDSA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDSA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $37 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Industrial Services of America. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Industrial Services of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDSA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for IDSA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Industrial Services of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Industrial Services of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDSA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 118.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDSA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Industrial Services of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Industrial Services of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDSA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDSA are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Industrial Services of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDSA is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $12 million for Industrial Services of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.807 million for Industrial Services of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Industrial Services of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
WM Waste Manageme 75.53 35.06  str.sell
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 10-Q for Industrial Services of America, Inc.   [Aug-16  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K/A for Industrial Services of America, Inc.   [Jun-19  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ INVESTKentucky Announces Executive Presentation Schedule   [May-26  09:53AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for Industrial Services of America, Inc.   [May-17  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Industrial Services of America, Inc.   [Apr-22  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Industrial Services of America, Inc.   [Nov-13  07:08PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Industrial Services of America announces $3M equity investment from RCP   [Jun-16  08:02AM  at theflyonthewall.com]
Stock chart of IDSA Financial statements of IDSA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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