Intrinsic value of IDT Cl B - IDT

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$15.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.19

 
Intrinsic value

$40.01

 
Up/down potential

+163%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,496
  1,526
  1,561
  1,601
  1,646
  1,696
  1,751
  1,810
  1,875
  1,945
  2,019
  2,099
  2,184
  2,275
  2,371
  2,474
  2,582
  2,697
  2,818
  2,946
  3,082
  3,225
  3,375
  3,534
  3,701
  3,877
  4,063
  4,258
  4,464
  4,680
  4,907
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  514
  526
  540
  555
  571
  590
  610
  632
  655
  680
  706
  734
  765
  797
  832
  868
  907
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,084
  1,135
  1,188
  1,245
  1,304
  1,366
  1,432
  1,501
  1,574
  1,650
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,015
  1,040
  1,066
  1,093
  1,120
  1,148
  1,177
  1,206
  1,236
  1,267
  1,299
  1,331
  1,365
  1,399
  1,434
  1,470
  1,506
  1,544
  1,583
  1,622
  1,663
  1,704
  1,747
  1,791
  1,835
  1,881
  1,928
  1,977
  2,026
  2,077
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,470
  1,529
  1,566
  1,606
  1,648
  1,691
  1,738
  1,787
  1,838
  1,891
  1,947
  2,005
  2,065
  2,130
  2,196
  2,266
  2,338
  2,413
  2,492
  2,574
  2,658
  2,747
  2,839
  2,935
  3,036
  3,139
  3,247
  3,360
  3,478
  3,600
  3,727
Operating income, $m
  26
  -3
  -5
  -4
  -1
  5
  13
  24
  37
  53
  72
  94
  118
  145
  175
  208
  244
  284
  326
  373
  423
  477
  536
  599
  666
  738
  815
  898
  986
  1,080
  1,181
EBITDA, $m
  47
  7
  5
  6
  10
  16
  25
  36
  50
  66
  85
  107
  131
  159
  189
  223
  260
  300
  343
  391
  442
  497
  556
  620
  688
  761
  840
  924
  1,013
  1,108
  1,210
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -11
  -7
  -4
  0
  5
  9
  14
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  148
  160
  174
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  -3
  16
  14
  15
  18
  23
  31
  41
  53
  67
  85
  104
  126
  150
  177
  207
  239
  275
  314
  357
  403
  452
  506
  563
  625
  691
  763
  839
  920
  1,007
Tax expense, $m
  4
  0
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  48
  56
  65
  74
  85
  96
  109
  122
  137
  152
  169
  187
  206
  226
  248
  272
Net income, $m
  24
  -3
  12
  11
  11
  13
  17
  23
  30
  38
  49
  62
  76
  92
  109
  129
  151
  175
  201
  229
  260
  294
  330
  369
  411
  456
  505
  557
  612
  672
  735

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  470
  314
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  373
  386
  400
  416
  432
  450
  468
  488
  509
  532
  555
  580
  607
  634
  664
  695
  728
  762
  798
  837
  877
  919
  964
  1,010
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  308
  314
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  373
  386
  400
  416
  432
  450
  468
  488
  509
  532
  555
  580
  607
  634
  664
  695
  728
  762
  798
  837
  877
  919
  964
  1,010
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.857
  4.860
  4.863
  4.852
  4.855
  4.860
  4.864
  4.853
  4.858
  4.863
  4.853
  4.859
  4.853
  4.861
  4.859
  4.861
  4.853
  4.859
  4.859
  4.853
  4.861
  4.857
  4.856
  4.854
  4.857
  4.858
  4.854
  4.855
  4.857
  4.855
  4.858
Average production assets, $m
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -171
  -175
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
  -524
  -550
Total debt, $m
  0
  -63
  -57
  -49
  -41
  -32
  -22
  -11
  1
  14
  28
  43
  59
  76
  93
  112
  132
  154
  176
  200
  225
  252
  279
  309
  340
  372
  407
  443
  481
  521
  563
Total liabilities, $m
  346
  283
  289
  297
  305
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  374
  389
  405
  422
  439
  458
  478
  500
  522
  546
  571
  598
  625
  655
  686
  718
  753
  789
  827
  867
  909
Total equity, $m
  124
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  470
  314
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  372
  386
  400
  416
  432
  450
  469
  488
  509
  531
  556
  580
  607
  634
  664
  694
  728
  762
  798
  837
  877
  919
  963
  1,010
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.010
  -1.770
  -1.500
  -1.210
  -0.910
  -0.600
  -0.280
  0.040
  0.360
  0.680
  0.990
  1.310
  1.610
  1.910
  2.210
  2.490
  2.770
  3.040
  3.300
  3.550
  3.790
  4.020
  4.240
  4.460
  4.670
  4.860
  5.050
  5.240
  5.410
  5.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.123
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  -3
  12
  11
  11
  13
  17
  23
  30
  38
  49
  62
  76
  92
  109
  129
  151
  175
  201
  229
  260
  294
  330
  369
  411
  456
  505
  557
  612
  672
  735
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  53
  7
  22
  21
  22
  25
  29
  35
  42
  51
  62
  75
  89
  105
  124
  144
  166
  191
  218
  247
  279
  313
  350
  390
  433
  480
  529
  582
  639
  700
  765
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  54
  26
  26
  27
  30
  35
  41
  49
  59
  71
  83
  99
  116
  134
  155
  179
  204
  231
  261
  294
  329
  367
  408
  452
  499
  550
  604
  662
  724
  790
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  44
  16
  15
  16
  19
  23
  29
  36
  46
  57
  69
  83
  100
  118
  138
  160
  185
  212
  241
  272
  306
  343
  383
  426
  472
  521
  574
  630
  691
  755
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  -63
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  -63
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  -19
  22
  23
  24
  28
  33
  40
  48
  59
  70
  84
  99
  117
  136
  157
  181
  206
  234
  264
  297
  333
  371
  412
  457
  504
  555
  610
  668
  731
  797
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -69
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  73
  22
  22
  24
  27
  32
  39
  47
  57
  69
  82
  97
  115
  134
  155
  178
  204
  232
  262
  295
  330
  368
  409
  453
  501
  552
  606
  664
  726
  793
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  70
  20
  19
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  44
  45
  46
  45
  44
  43
  40
  37
  34
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

IDT Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates primarily in the telecommunications and payment industries in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Telecom Platform Services and Consumer Phone Services. The Telecom Platform Services segment offers retail telecommunications, including international long-distance calling products; payment offerings, such as international and domestic airtime top-up, and international money transfer through its Boss Revolution platform; wholesale international long distance traffic termination; and hosted platform solutions comprising customized communications services that leverage its proprietary networks, platforms, and technology to cable companies and other service providers. This segment also provides traditional disposable prepaid calling cards under the IDT brand and private labels. The Consumer Phone Services segment provides long distance phone services to residential and business customers, as well as local and long distance bundled phone services. The company is also involved in real estate holdings and other businesses. IDT Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Newark, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDT Cl B (IDT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.6
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 18.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Return On Equity 18.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 13.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Payout Ratio 70.8%

IDT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1496 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDT Cl B. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDT Cl B. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IDT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDT Cl B, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDT Cl B.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $990 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 33.3% for IDT Cl B.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDT Cl B. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDT are equal to 3%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDT Cl B operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDT is equal to -11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $124 million for IDT Cl B - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.062 million for IDT Cl B is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDT Cl B at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to IDT Corp. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IDT Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:IDT) : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AT&T Spends $1.6B to Upgrade Its 5G Wireless Plan   [Apr-10-17 04:54PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IDT Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IDT posts 2Q profit   [05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ IDT Introduces the BOSS Revolution Money App   [Feb-23-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ National Retail Solutions (NRS) Partners with Jetro   [Jan-25-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ PicuP Goes Live   [08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] IDT's Net2phone Acquires LiveNinja   [Jan-09-17 05:10PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Miami startup acquired by public company's subsidiary   [Jan-04-17 03:17PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ net2phone Acquires LiveNinja   [11:42AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is IDT Corporation (IDT) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 06:01AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Las Vegas Sands, Horizon Pharma, and IDT Slumped Today   [Dec-08-16 06:37PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ IDT posts 1Q profit   [Dec-07-16 04:38PM  AP]
▶ IDT posts 4Q profit   [04:57PM  AP]
▶ IDT Announces Details of Zedge Spin-Off   [May-16-16 06:24PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of IDT Financial statements of IDT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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