Intrinsic value of Integrated Device Technology - IDTI

Previous Close

$23.36

  Intrinsic Value

$15.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

  Value-price divergence*

-69%

Previous close

$23.36

 
Intrinsic value

$15.66

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-69%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.45
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  728
  743
  760
  779
  801
  825
  852
  881
  912
  946
  983
  1,021
  1,063
  1,107
  1,154
  1,204
  1,256
  1,312
  1,371
  1,434
  1,500
  1,569
  1,642
  1,720
  1,801
  1,887
  1,977
  2,072
  2,172
  2,277
  2,388
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  597
  610
  625
  642
  660
  681
  703
  727
  753
  780
  779
  811
  844
  880
  918
  958
  1,001
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,197
  1,253
  1,312
  1,374
  1,439
  1,508
  1,581
  1,657
  1,737
  1,822
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  618
  597
  610
  625
  642
  660
  681
  703
  727
  753
  780
  779
  811
  844
  880
  918
  958
  1,001
  1,046
  1,094
  1,144
  1,197
  1,253
  1,312
  1,374
  1,439
  1,508
  1,581
  1,657
  1,737
  1,822
Operating income, $m
  110
  145
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  242
  252
  263
  274
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  427
  448
  469
  491
  515
  540
  566
EBITDA, $m
  155
  194
  198
  204
  209
  216
  223
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  358
  374
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  493
  516
  541
  567
  595
  624
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  135
  139
  143
  148
  154
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  227
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  291
  304
  317
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
Net income, $m
  110
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  166
  172
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  406
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,184
  793
  812
  832
  856
  882
  910
  941
  975
  1,011
  1,050
  1,091
  1,136
  1,183
  1,233
  1,286
  1,342
  1,402
  1,465
  1,532
  1,602
  1,676
  1,755
  1,837
  1,924
  2,016
  2,112
  2,214
  2,321
  2,433
  2,551
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  778
  793
  812
  832
  856
  882
  910
  941
  975
  1,011
  1,050
  1,091
  1,136
  1,183
  1,233
  1,286
  1,342
  1,402
  1,465
  1,532
  1,602
  1,676
  1,755
  1,837
  1,924
  2,016
  2,112
  2,214
  2,321
  2,433
  2,551
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.936
  0.937
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.935
  0.936
  0.936
  0.935
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
Average production assets, $m
  196
  200
  204
  210
  215
  222
  229
  237
  245
  255
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  324
  338
  353
  369
  386
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  613
  642
Working capital, $m
  470
  65
  67
  69
  70
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  102
  106
  111
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
Total debt, $m
  286
  294
  304
  315
  327
  341
  356
  372
  390
  409
  429
  451
  474
  499
  526
  554
  583
  615
  648
  683
  720
  759
  801
  844
  890
  938
  989
  1,043
  1,099
  1,158
  1,221
Total liabilities, $m
  410
  418
  428
  439
  451
  465
  480
  496
  514
  533
  553
  575
  598
  623
  650
  678
  707
  739
  772
  807
  844
  883
  925
  968
  1,014
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,223
  1,282
  1,345
Total equity, $m
  774
  375
  384
  394
  405
  417
  431
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  559
  583
  608
  635
  663
  693
  725
  758
  793
  830
  869
  910
  954
  999
  1,047
  1,098
  1,151
  1,207
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,184
  793
  812
  833
  856
  882
  911
  941
  975
  1,011
  1,050
  1,091
  1,135
  1,182
  1,233
  1,286
  1,342
  1,402
  1,465
  1,532
  1,602
  1,676
  1,755
  1,837
  1,924
  2,016
  2,112
  2,214
  2,321
  2,433
  2,552
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473
  0.473

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  110
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  166
  172
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  49
  49
  49
  50
  51
  51
  52
  53
  53
  54
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  147
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  146
  149
  152
  156
  161
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  187
  194
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  431
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -78
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
Free cash flow, $m
  91
  125
  127
  129
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -78
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  216
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  406
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  532
  128
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  510
  117
  113
  109
  106
  101
  97
  93
  88
  83
  74
  69
  64
  58
  53
  48
  43
  38
  33
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Integrated Device Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of semiconductor solutions for the communications, computing, consumer, automotive, and industrial end-markets worldwide. It operates in two segments, Communications; and Computing, Consumer, and Industrial. The Communications segment offers communication timing products, such as clocks and timing solutions; flow-control management devices comprising Serial RapidIO switching solutions; multi-port products; telecommunications products; static random access memory products; first in and first out memories; digital logic products; radio frequency products; and frequency control solutions. The Computing, Consumer, and Industrial segment provides clock generation and distribution products, programmable timing devices, computing timing solutions, high-performance server memory interfaces, PCI Express switching solutions, power management solutions, and signal integrity products, as well as sensing products for mobile, automotive, and industrial solutions. The company markets its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers through various channels, including direct sales, distributors, electronic manufacturing suppliers, and independent sales representatives. Integrated Device Technology, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.3
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 37%
Total Debt to Equity 37%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Equity 15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.5%
EBITDA Margin 20.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin 15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Effective Tax Rate -10.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $728 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Integrated Device Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Integrated Device Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IDTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Integrated Device Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Integrated Device Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Integrated Device Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Integrated Device Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDTI are equal to 26.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Integrated Device Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDTI is equal to 8.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $774 million for Integrated Device Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.453 million for Integrated Device Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Integrated Device Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Integrated Device Tech beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Intel Suppliers Boosted by iPhone Uncertainty   [Jul-12-17 03:37PM  Barrons.com]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 10:07AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Chip Stocks Are Plays On iPhone 8-Led Wireless Charging Shift   [Jun-15-17 04:32PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ IBD 50 Chip Stock Cavium Initiated With Buy Rating   [Jun-09-17 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks Steady At Highs: These 3 Apple Chip Plays Are Near Buys   [06:20AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ U.S. charges Virginia man in Fitbit stock hoax   [May-19-17 06:35PM  Reuters]
▶ IDT to Present at J.P. Morgan Conference on May 23   [May-10-17 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ Chipmaker AMD Down Late On In-Line Q1 Results   [May-01-17 05:34PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Integrated Device Tech beats Street 4Q forecasts   [04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chip Industry's Boom Cycle Remains in Full Swing   [Apr-05-17 08:31PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ [$$] Galaxy S8 Benefits Four Stocks   [Mar-31-17 10:46AM  Barrons.com]
▶ GigPeak Jumps 12% on IDT Buyout Offer at $3.08/Sh Cash   [Feb-13-17 09:29PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of IDTI Financial statements of IDTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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