Intrinsic value of Integrated Device Technology - IDTI

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$24.84

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.45
  21.60
  19.94
  18.45
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
Revenue, $m
  728
  848
  1,017
  1,204
  1,410
  1,634
  1,876
  2,135
  2,411
  2,704
  3,014
  3,339
  3,679
  4,036
  4,408
  4,796
  5,200
  5,619
  6,056
  6,510
  6,981
  7,471
  7,980
  8,510
  9,061
  9,634
  10,230
  10,851
  11,499
  12,173
  12,877
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  670
  797
  939
  1,094
  1,263
  1,445
  1,641
  1,849
  2,070
  2,303
  2,518
  2,775
  3,044
  3,324
  3,617
  3,921
  4,238
  4,567
  4,909
  5,264
  5,634
  6,018
  6,417
  6,833
  7,265
  7,714
  8,183
  8,671
  9,180
  9,711
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  618
  675
  802
  944
  1,100
  1,269
  1,451
  1,647
  1,855
  2,076
  2,309
  2,525
  2,782
  3,051
  3,331
  3,624
  3,928
  4,246
  4,575
  4,917
  5,272
  5,642
  6,027
  6,426
  6,842
  7,274
  7,724
  8,193
  8,681
  9,190
  9,721
Operating income, $m
  110
  173
  214
  260
  311
  366
  425
  489
  556
  628
  704
  814
  898
  986
  1,077
  1,172
  1,271
  1,374
  1,481
  1,593
  1,708
  1,829
  1,954
  2,084
  2,219
  2,360
  2,506
  2,659
  2,818
  2,983
  3,156
EBITDA, $m
  155
  219
  263
  313
  367
  426
  490
  558
  631
  708
  790
  875
  965
  1,059
  1,157
  1,260
  1,366
  1,477
  1,592
  1,712
  1,836
  1,965
  2,099
  2,239
  2,384
  2,535
  2,693
  2,857
  3,027
  3,205
  3,391
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  65
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  252
Earnings before tax, $m
  99
  163
  201
  244
  290
  341
  396
  454
  516
  582
  652
  756
  833
  913
  997
  1,084
  1,175
  1,269
  1,368
  1,470
  1,576
  1,686
  1,801
  1,920
  2,044
  2,173
  2,307
  2,447
  2,593
  2,745
  2,904
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  44
  54
  66
  78
  92
  107
  123
  139
  157
  176
  204
  225
  246
  269
  293
  317
  343
  369
  397
  426
  455
  486
  518
  552
  587
  623
  661
  700
  741
  784
Net income, $m
  110
  119
  147
  178
  212
  249
  289
  331
  377
  425
  476
  552
  608
  666
  728
  791
  858
  927
  998
  1,073
  1,150
  1,231
  1,315
  1,402
  1,492
  1,586
  1,684
  1,787
  1,893
  2,004
  2,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  406
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,184
  906
  1,086
  1,286
  1,506
  1,746
  2,004
  2,281
  2,576
  2,889
  3,220
  3,567
  3,931
  4,312
  4,709
  5,124
  5,555
  6,004
  6,470
  6,955
  7,459
  7,982
  8,526
  9,092
  9,680
  10,292
  10,930
  11,593
  12,285
  13,006
  13,758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  778
  906
  1,086
  1,286
  1,506
  1,746
  2,004
  2,281
  2,576
  2,889
  3,220
  3,567
  3,931
  4,312
  4,709
  5,124
  5,555
  6,004
  6,470
  6,955
  7,459
  7,982
  8,526
  9,092
  9,680
  10,292
  10,930
  11,593
  12,285
  13,006
  13,758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
  0.936
Average production assets, $m
  196
  167
  200
  237
  278
  322
  370
  421
  475
  533
  594
  658
  725
  795
  868
  945
  1,024
  1,107
  1,193
  1,282
  1,375
  1,472
  1,572
  1,676
  1,785
  1,898
  2,015
  2,138
  2,265
  2,398
  2,537
Working capital, $m
  470
  45
  54
  64
  75
  87
  99
  113
  128
  143
  160
  177
  195
  214
  234
  254
  276
  298
  321
  345
  370
  396
  423
  451
  480
  511
  542
  575
  609
  645
  682
Total debt, $m
  286
  363
  465
  578
  703
  838
  984
  1,141
  1,308
  1,485
  1,672
  1,869
  2,075
  2,291
  2,516
  2,750
  2,994
  3,248
  3,512
  3,786
  4,072
  4,368
  4,676
  4,996
  5,329
  5,675
  6,036
  6,412
  6,803
  7,211
  7,637
Total liabilities, $m
  410
  513
  615
  728
  853
  988
  1,134
  1,291
  1,458
  1,635
  1,822
  2,019
  2,225
  2,441
  2,666
  2,900
  3,144
  3,398
  3,662
  3,936
  4,222
  4,518
  4,826
  5,146
  5,479
  5,825
  6,186
  6,562
  6,953
  7,361
  7,787
Total equity, $m
  774
  393
  471
  558
  654
  758
  870
  990
  1,118
  1,254
  1,397
  1,548
  1,706
  1,871
  2,044
  2,224
  2,411
  2,606
  2,808
  3,018
  3,237
  3,464
  3,700
  3,946
  4,201
  4,467
  4,743
  5,031
  5,332
  5,645
  5,971
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,184
  906
  1,086
  1,286
  1,507
  1,746
  2,004
  2,281
  2,576
  2,889
  3,219
  3,567
  3,931
  4,312
  4,710
  5,124
  5,555
  6,004
  6,470
  6,954
  7,459
  7,982
  8,526
  9,092
  9,680
  10,292
  10,929
  11,593
  12,285
  13,006
  13,758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.920
  0.990
  1.040
  1.070
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.473
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434
  0.434

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  110
  119
  147
  178
  212
  249
  289
  331
  377
  425
  476
  552
  608
  666
  728
  791
  858
  927
  998
  1,073
  1,150
  1,231
  1,315
  1,402
  1,492
  1,586
  1,684
  1,787
  1,893
  2,004
  2,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  61
  67
  74
  80
  87
  95
  103
  110
  119
  127
  136
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  165
  196
  231
  268
  309
  354
  401
  452
  505
  562
  613
  675
  740
  808
  879
  953
  1,029
  1,109
  1,192
  1,278
  1,367
  1,460
  1,557
  1,657
  1,762
  1,871
  1,985
  2,103
  2,226
  2,355
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  222
  187
  221
  257
  297
  341
  387
  437
  490
  545
  595
  657
  721
  788
  858
  931
  1,007
  1,086
  1,168
  1,253
  1,341
  1,433
  1,529
  1,628
  1,732
  1,839
  1,952
  2,068
  2,190
  2,317
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -110
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -222
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -78
  -43
  -48
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -199
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -250
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -309
  -326
  -343
  -361
Free cash flow, $m
  91
  180
  138
  165
  195
  228
  263
  302
  344
  388
  435
  476
  529
  584
  641
  701
  764
  829
  897
  968
  1,041
  1,117
  1,197
  1,279
  1,365
  1,454
  1,546
  1,643
  1,743
  1,848
  1,957
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2
  91
  102
  113
  125
  135
  146
  157
  167
  177
  187
  197
  206
  216
  225
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  391
  408
  426
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -78
  91
  102
  113
  125
  135
  146
  157
  167
  177
  187
  197
  206
  216
  225
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  346
  361
  376
  391
  408
  426
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  270
  241
  279
  319
  363
  410
  459
  511
  565
  622
  673
  735
  799
  866
  936
  1,008
  1,083
  1,161
  1,242
  1,326
  1,414
  1,505
  1,599
  1,698
  1,800
  1,907
  2,018
  2,134
  2,256
  2,382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -326
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  554
  162
  192
  224
  259
  297
  339
  382
  429
  479
  522
  577
  634
  694
  756
  821
  889
  959
  1,032
  1,108
  1,187
  1,268
  1,354
  1,442
  1,534
  1,630
  1,730
  1,834
  1,943
  2,056
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  531
  149
  167
  184
  201
  216
  229
  239
  247
  251
  248
  246
  241
  233
  222
  209
  193
  177
  159
  141
  123
  105
  89
  73
  60
  48
  37
  28
  21
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Integrated Device Technology, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a range of semiconductor solutions for the communications, computing, consumer, automotive, and industrial end-markets worldwide. It operates in two segments, Communications; and Computing, Consumer, and Industrial. The Communications segment offers communication timing products, such as clocks and timing solutions; flow-control management devices comprising Serial RapidIO switching solutions; multi-port products; telecommunications products; static random access memory products; first in and first out memories; digital logic products; radio frequency products; and frequency control solutions. The Computing, Consumer, and Industrial segment provides clock generation and distribution products, programmable timing devices, computing timing solutions, high-performance server memory interfaces, PCI Express switching solutions, power management solutions, and signal integrity products, as well as sensing products for mobile, automotive, and industrial solutions. The company markets its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers through various channels, including direct sales, distributors, electronic manufacturing suppliers, and independent sales representatives. Integrated Device Technology, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Integrated Device Technology (IDTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.1
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 37%
Total Debt to Equity 37%
Interest Coverage 34
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Return On Equity 15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.5%
EBITDA Margin 20.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin 15.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Effective Tax Rate -10.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $697 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Integrated Device Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Integrated Device Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IDTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Integrated Device Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Integrated Device Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Integrated Device Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Integrated Device Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDTI are equal to 19.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Integrated Device Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDTI is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $677 million for Integrated Device Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.453 million for Integrated Device Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Integrated Device Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.


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Stock chart of IDTI Financial statements of IDTI Annual reports of IDTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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