Intrinsic value of Interpace Diagnostics Group - IDXG

Previous Close

$1.07

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$1.07

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDXG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.44
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  13
  17
  23
  29
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  106
  121
  138
  156
  175
  195
  216
  239
  262
  286
  311
  338
  365
  393
  423
  454
  485
  519
  553
  589
  626
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  96
  125
  160
  201
  249
  303
  363
  431
  505
  585
  672
  765
  865
  970
  1,082
  1,199
  1,322
  1,450
  1,584
  1,724
  1,869
  2,021
  2,178
  2,342
  2,512
  2,688
  2,872
  3,063
  3,261
  3,468
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  20
  96
  125
  160
  201
  249
  303
  363
  431
  505
  585
  672
  765
  865
  970
  1,082
  1,199
  1,322
  1,450
  1,584
  1,724
  1,869
  2,021
  2,178
  2,342
  2,512
  2,688
  2,872
  3,063
  3,261
  3,468
Operating income, $m
  -6
  -79
  -103
  -131
  -165
  -204
  -248
  -298
  -353
  -413
  -479
  -551
  -627
  -709
  -795
  -886
  -982
  -1,083
  -1,188
  -1,298
  -1,413
  -1,532
  -1,656
  -1,785
  -1,919
  -2,058
  -2,203
  -2,353
  -2,510
  -2,672
  -2,842
EBITDA, $m
  -2
  -73
  -96
  -122
  -154
  -190
  -231
  -277
  -329
  -385
  -447
  -513
  -585
  -661
  -741
  -826
  -916
  -1,009
  -1,108
  -1,210
  -1,317
  -1,428
  -1,543
  -1,664
  -1,788
  -1,918
  -2,053
  -2,193
  -2,339
  -2,491
  -2,648
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
Earnings before tax, $m
  -9
  -79
  -103
  -132
  -167
  -206
  -251
  -302
  -358
  -420
  -487
  -560
  -638
  -721
  -809
  -902
  -1,000
  -1,102
  -1,210
  -1,322
  -1,439
  -1,560
  -1,687
  -1,818
  -1,955
  -2,097
  -2,245
  -2,398
  -2,558
  -2,724
  -2,896
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -8
  -79
  -103
  -132
  -167
  -206
  -251
  -302
  -358
  -420
  -487
  -560
  -638
  -721
  -809
  -902
  -1,000
  -1,102
  -1,210
  -1,322
  -1,439
  -1,560
  -1,687
  -1,818
  -1,955
  -2,097
  -2,245
  -2,398
  -2,558
  -2,724
  -2,896

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  42
  55
  71
  91
  115
  142
  172
  207
  245
  287
  333
  383
  436
  493
  553
  616
  683
  753
  826
  902
  982
  1,065
  1,151
  1,241
  1,334
  1,431
  1,531
  1,636
  1,745
  1,858
  1,975
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  41
  55
  71
  91
  115
  142
  172
  207
  245
  287
  333
  383
  436
  493
  553
  616
  683
  753
  826
  902
  982
  1,065
  1,151
  1,241
  1,334
  1,431
  1,531
  1,636
  1,745
  1,858
  1,975
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.317
  0.309
  0.324
  0.319
  0.313
  0.317
  0.320
  0.319
  0.318
  0.317
  0.318
  0.316
  0.317
  0.316
  0.316
  0.317
  0.316
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
Average production assets, $m
  41
  54
  70
  90
  113
  140
  170
  204
  242
  284
  329
  378
  431
  486
  546
  608
  674
  743
  816
  891
  970
  1,052
  1,137
  1,225
  1,317
  1,413
  1,512
  1,615
  1,723
  1,834
  1,951
Working capital, $m
  -12
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -106
  -121
  -138
  -156
  -175
  -195
  -216
  -239
  -262
  -286
  -311
  -338
  -365
  -393
  -423
  -454
  -485
  -519
  -553
  -589
  -626
Total debt, $m
  8
  20
  34
  51
  71
  94
  120
  150
  182
  218
  258
  300
  345
  394
  445
  499
  556
  616
  678
  744
  812
  882
  956
  1,033
  1,112
  1,195
  1,281
  1,370
  1,463
  1,559
  1,660
Total liabilities, $m
  35
  47
  61
  78
  98
  121
  147
  177
  209
  245
  285
  327
  372
  421
  472
  526
  583
  643
  705
  771
  839
  909
  983
  1,060
  1,139
  1,222
  1,308
  1,397
  1,490
  1,586
  1,687
Total equity, $m
  7
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  42
  55
  71
  91
  115
  142
  172
  207
  245
  287
  334
  383
  436
  493
  553
  616
  683
  753
  826
  903
  982
  1,064
  1,151
  1,241
  1,334
  1,431
  1,532
  1,636
  1,745
  1,857
  1,975
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.143
  2.470
  3.260
  3.820
  4.240
  4.540
  4.780
  4.960
  5.100
  5.210
  5.290
  5.370
  5.430
  5.470
  5.510
  5.550
  5.580
  5.600
  5.630
  5.640
  5.660
  5.680
  5.690
  5.700
  5.710
  5.720
  5.730
  5.740
  5.740
  5.750
  5.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -79
  -103
  -132
  -167
  -206
  -251
  -302
  -358
  -420
  -487
  -560
  -638
  -721
  -809
  -902
  -1,000
  -1,102
  -1,210
  -1,322
  -1,439
  -1,560
  -1,687
  -1,818
  -1,955
  -2,097
  -2,245
  -2,398
  -2,558
  -2,724
  -2,896
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  43
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -74
  -96
  -124
  -155
  -192
  -234
  -282
  -334
  -392
  -455
  -522
  -595
  -673
  -755
  -842
  -933
  -1,029
  -1,129
  -1,234
  -1,343
  -1,456
  -1,574
  -1,697
  -1,825
  -1,957
  -2,095
  -2,238
  -2,387
  -2,542
  -2,703
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -69
  -91
  -117
  -148
  -184
  -225
  -271
  -322
  -378
  -440
  -507
  -578
  -655
  -736
  -822
  -912
  -1,007
  -1,106
  -1,209
  -1,317
  -1,430
  -1,547
  -1,669
  -1,795
  -1,927
  -2,063
  -2,205
  -2,353
  -2,506
  -2,666
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -73
  -82
  -89
  -99
  -107
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -202
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -267
  -283
  -298
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -87
  -113
  -144
  -180
  -222
  -269
  -322
  -380
  -444
  -513
  -588
  -668
  -753
  -843
  -938
  -1,038
  -1,143
  -1,252
  -1,366
  -1,484
  -1,608
  -1,736
  -1,870
  -2,008
  -2,153
  -2,302
  -2,458
  -2,620
  -2,788
  -2,964
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  100
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  81
  106
  135
  170
  210
  256
  307
  364
  426
  494
  567
  646
  729
  818
  911
  1,010
  1,113
  1,221
  1,333
  1,450
  1,572
  1,699
  1,831
  1,969
  2,111
  2,259
  2,413
  2,574
  2,740
  2,913
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  93
  120
  152
  190
  233
  282
  337
  397
  462
  533
  609
  691
  777
  869
  965
  1,067
  1,173
  1,283
  1,398
  1,518
  1,643
  1,773
  1,908
  2,049
  2,194
  2,345
  2,502
  2,667
  2,837
  3,013
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -81
  -106
  -135
  -170
  -210
  -256
  -307
  -364
  -426
  -494
  -567
  -646
  -729
  -818
  -911
  -1,010
  -1,113
  -1,221
  -1,333
  -1,450
  -1,572
  -1,699
  -1,831
  -1,969
  -2,111
  -2,259
  -2,413
  -2,574
  -2,740
  -2,913
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -74
  -99
  -127
  -160
  -199
  -243
  -292
  -347
  -408
  -474
  -546
  -623
  -705
  -792
  -884
  -981
  -1,083
  -1,189
  -1,300
  -1,416
  -1,537
  -1,663
  -1,793
  -1,929
  -2,070
  -2,216
  -2,369
  -2,527
  -2,692
  -2,863
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -68
  -82
  -94
  -105
  -115
  -122
  -126
  -127
  -125
  -120
  -112
  -102
  -91
  -79
  -67
  -55
  -44
  -34
  -26
  -19
  -14
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  23.7
  5.7
  1.4
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Interpace Diagnostics Group, Inc., formerly PDI, Inc., is focused on developing and commercializing molecular diagnostic tests principally focused on early detection of high potential progressors to cancer and leveraging the latest technology and personalized medicine for patient diagnosis and management. The Company operates through molecular diagnostics segment. It offers molecular tests, such as PancraGen, which is a pancreatic cyst molecular test that can aid in pancreatic cyst diagnosis and pancreatic cancer risk assessment utilizing its PathFinder platform; ThyGenX, which assesses thyroid nodules for risk of malignancy, and ThyraMIR, which assesses thyroid nodules risk of malignancy utilizing a gene expression assay. Through its molecular diagnostics business, the Company provides diagnostic options for detecting genetic and other molecular alterations that are associated with gastrointestinal and endocrine cancers, which are focused on early detection of cancer.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Interpace Diagnostics Group (IDXG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.3
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 44.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 114.3%
Total Debt to Equity 114.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.8%
Return On Total Capital -44.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.1%
Return On Equity -80%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
EBITDA Margin -38.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -712.8%
Operating Margin -53.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -769.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -69.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -819.4%
Net Profit Margin -61.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -594.6%
Effective Tax Rate 11.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDXG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDXG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Interpace Diagnostics Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Interpace Diagnostics Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDXG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for IDXG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Interpace Diagnostics Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Interpace Diagnostics Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDXG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 553.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDXG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Interpace Diagnostics Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Interpace Diagnostics Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDXG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDXG are equal to 311.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Interpace Diagnostics Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDXG is equal to -100%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7 million for Interpace Diagnostics Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.373 million for Interpace Diagnostics Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Interpace Diagnostics Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Interpace Diagnostics Announces Appointment of New Director   [Sep-13-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Interpace Diagnostics Announces Cigna Coverage of ThyGenX®   [Jul-27-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Interpace Diagnostics Eliminates Long Term Secured Debt   [Apr-20-17 08:08AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Interpace Diagnostics Gets EU Patent for Thyroid Test   [Apr-03-17 11:49AM  Investopedia]
Financial statements of IDXG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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