Intrinsic value of IDEXX Laboratories - IDXX

Previous Close

$166.55

  Intrinsic Value

$23.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

-121%

Previous close

$166.55

 
Intrinsic value

$23.17

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-121%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  1,775
  1,961
  2,157
  2,360
  2,573
  2,795
  3,025
  3,265
  3,514
  3,773
  4,042
  4,321
  4,612
  4,914
  5,229
  5,556
  5,897
  6,252
  6,622
  7,007
  7,410
  7,830
  8,268
  8,727
  9,205
  9,706
  10,230
  10,777
  11,351
  11,951
  12,580
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,393
  1,529
  1,672
  1,821
  1,977
  2,138
  2,306
  2,481
  2,662
  2,851
  3,029
  3,233
  3,445
  3,665
  3,895
  4,133
  4,382
  4,641
  4,912
  5,194
  5,488
  5,796
  6,117
  6,453
  6,804
  7,171
  7,555
  7,957
  8,377
  8,818
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  203
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  333
  342
  350
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,564
  1,704
  1,852
  2,005
  2,166
  2,332
  2,505
  2,684
  2,871
  3,065
  3,248
  3,458
  3,675
  3,901
  4,137
  4,381
  4,636
  4,901
  5,179
  5,468
  5,768
  6,084
  6,412
  6,755
  7,114
  7,488
  7,880
  8,290
  8,719
  9,168
Operating income, $m
  350
  398
  452
  508
  567
  629
  693
  760
  829
  902
  977
  1,073
  1,155
  1,239
  1,328
  1,420
  1,515
  1,615
  1,720
  1,828
  1,942
  2,061
  2,185
  2,315
  2,451
  2,593
  2,742
  2,897
  3,061
  3,232
  3,411
EBITDA, $m
  428
  459
  518
  579
  642
  709
  778
  851
  926
  1,004
  1,085
  1,169
  1,257
  1,349
  1,444
  1,543
  1,647
  1,755
  1,867
  1,985
  2,107
  2,235
  2,369
  2,509
  2,656
  2,809
  2,970
  3,138
  3,314
  3,498
  3,692
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  39
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  142
  151
  161
  172
  183
  194
  206
  219
  232
  245
  260
  274
  290
  306
Earnings before tax, $m
  322
  359
  417
  468
  522
  578
  636
  696
  759
  825
  893
  982
  1,056
  1,132
  1,213
  1,296
  1,383
  1,474
  1,568
  1,667
  1,770
  1,878
  1,991
  2,109
  2,232
  2,361
  2,496
  2,638
  2,786
  2,942
  3,105
Tax expense, $m
  100
  97
  113
  126
  141
  156
  172
  188
  205
  223
  241
  265
  285
  306
  327
  350
  373
  398
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  603
  637
  674
  712
  752
  794
  838
Net income, $m
  222
  262
  304
  342
  381
  422
  464
  508
  554
  602
  652
  717
  771
  827
  885
  946
  1,009
  1,076
  1,145
  1,217
  1,292
  1,371
  1,453
  1,539
  1,629
  1,724
  1,822
  1,926
  2,034
  2,148
  2,267

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,531
  1,692
  1,861
  2,037
  2,220
  2,411
  2,610
  2,817
  3,032
  3,255
  3,487
  3,729
  3,979
  4,240
  4,511
  4,794
  5,088
  5,394
  5,713
  6,046
  6,393
  6,756
  7,134
  7,529
  7,943
  8,374
  8,826
  9,299
  9,794
  10,312
  10,854
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,139
  1,692
  1,861
  2,037
  2,220
  2,411
  2,610
  2,817
  3,032
  3,255
  3,487
  3,729
  3,979
  4,240
  4,511
  4,794
  5,088
  5,394
  5,713
  6,046
  6,393
  6,756
  7,134
  7,529
  7,943
  8,374
  8,826
  9,299
  9,794
  10,312
  10,854
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.558
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
  1.159
Average production assets, $m
  397
  437
  481
  526
  574
  623
  675
  728
  784
  841
  901
  964
  1,028
  1,096
  1,166
  1,239
  1,315
  1,394
  1,477
  1,563
  1,652
  1,746
  1,844
  1,946
  2,053
  2,164
  2,281
  2,403
  2,531
  2,665
  2,805
Working capital, $m
  -89
  143
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  275
  295
  315
  337
  359
  382
  406
  430
  456
  483
  512
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  709
  747
  787
  829
  872
  918
Total debt, $m
  1,110
  994
  1,146
  1,304
  1,469
  1,641
  1,820
  2,006
  2,200
  2,401
  2,610
  2,827
  3,052
  3,287
  3,531
  3,785
  4,050
  4,326
  4,613
  4,912
  5,225
  5,551
  5,892
  6,247
  6,619
  7,008
  7,415
  7,840
  8,285
  8,751
  9,239
Total liabilities, $m
  1,639
  1,523
  1,675
  1,833
  1,998
  2,170
  2,349
  2,535
  2,729
  2,930
  3,139
  3,356
  3,581
  3,816
  4,060
  4,314
  4,579
  4,855
  5,142
  5,441
  5,754
  6,080
  6,421
  6,776
  7,148
  7,537
  7,944
  8,369
  8,814
  9,280
  9,768
Total equity, $m
  -108
  169
  186
  204
  222
  241
  261
  282
  303
  326
  349
  373
  398
  424
  451
  479
  509
  539
  571
  605
  639
  676
  713
  753
  794
  837
  883
  930
  979
  1,031
  1,085
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,531
  1,692
  1,861
  2,037
  2,220
  2,411
  2,610
  2,817
  3,032
  3,256
  3,488
  3,729
  3,979
  4,240
  4,511
  4,793
  5,088
  5,394
  5,713
  6,046
  6,393
  6,756
  7,134
  7,529
  7,942
  8,374
  8,827
  9,299
  9,793
  10,311
  10,853
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.278
  5.870
  6.160
  6.400
  6.620
  6.810
  6.970
  7.120
  7.260
  7.370
  7.480
  7.580
  7.670
  7.750
  7.830
  7.900
  7.960
  8.020
  8.070
  8.130
  8.170
  8.220
  8.260
  8.300
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.095
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  222
  262
  304
  342
  381
  422
  464
  508
  554
  602
  652
  717
  771
  827
  885
  946
  1,009
  1,076
  1,145
  1,217
  1,292
  1,371
  1,453
  1,539
  1,629
  1,724
  1,822
  1,926
  2,034
  2,148
  2,267
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  108
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  148
  156
  165
  175
  184
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
Funds from operations, $m
  338
  323
  370
  412
  456
  502
  549
  599
  650
  704
  760
  813
  873
  936
  1,002
  1,070
  1,141
  1,215
  1,292
  1,373
  1,457
  1,546
  1,638
  1,734
  1,835
  1,940
  2,050
  2,166
  2,287
  2,414
  2,547
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  335
  310
  356
  397
  440
  486
  532
  581
  632
  685
  740
  793
  852
  914
  979
  1,046
  1,116
  1,189
  1,265
  1,345
  1,428
  1,515
  1,606
  1,700
  1,800
  1,903
  2,012
  2,126
  2,245
  2,370
  2,501
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -184
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -267
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -81
  -88
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -234
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -286
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
Free cash flow, $m
  244
  229
  269
  304
  340
  379
  419
  460
  504
  549
  596
  640
  691
  744
  799
  856
  916
  979
  1,044
  1,111
  1,182
  1,256
  1,333
  1,414
  1,498
  1,587
  1,679
  1,776
  1,877
  1,983
  2,095
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  38
  -116
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  488
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -266
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -218
  -101
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  488
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  129
  420
  462
  506
  551
  598
  647
  697
  750
  805
  857
  917
  979
  1,043
  1,111
  1,181
  1,254
  1,331
  1,411
  1,495
  1,582
  1,674
  1,770
  1,870
  1,975
  2,086
  2,201
  2,322
  2,449
  2,583
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -277
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -149
  403
  444
  487
  532
  578
  626
  676
  728
  782
  833
  892
  953
  1,016
  1,082
  1,151
  1,224
  1,299
  1,378
  1,460
  1,546
  1,636
  1,730
  1,829
  1,932
  2,040
  2,154
  2,273
  2,398
  2,528
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -138
  346
  349
  348
  342
  332
  317
  300
  279
  256
  231
  206
  181
  156
  132
  110
  90
  72
  57
  43
  33
  24
  17
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and distributes products and services primarily for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy, and water testing markets worldwide. It operates through Companion Animal Group; Water Quality Products; Livestock, Poultry and Dairy; and Other segments. The company provides point-of-care veterinary diagnostic products, including instruments, consumables, and rapid assays; veterinary reference laboratory diagnostic and consulting services; practice management and diagnostic imaging systems and services for veterinarians; and biological materials testing, and laboratory animal diagnostic instruments and services for biomedical research community. It also offers diagnostic and health-monitoring products for livestock, poultry, and dairy markets; products that test water for various microbiological contaminants; and point-of-care electrolytes and blood gas analyzers that are used in the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market. The company markets its products through marketing, customer service, sales, and technical service groups, as well as through independent distributors and other resellers. IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Westbrook, Maine.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 66
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book -135.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -462%
Total Debt to Equity -1027.8%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity -231.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 318.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1775 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDEXX Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDEXX Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for IDXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDEXX Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDEXX Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $167 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for IDEXX Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDEXX Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDXX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDXX are equal to 22.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDEXX Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDXX is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-108 million for IDEXX Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88.837 million for IDEXX Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDEXX Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.8 billion.

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Stock chart of IDXX Financial statements of IDXX Annual reports of IDXX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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