Intrinsic value of IDEXX Laboratories - IDXX

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$166.52

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.80
  10.22
  9.70
  9.23
  8.81
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.47
  6.33
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  1,775
  1,967
  2,168
  2,378
  2,597
  2,826
  3,064
  3,312
  3,569
  3,837
  4,115
  4,404
  4,704
  5,016
  5,341
  5,679
  6,031
  6,397
  6,779
  7,177
  7,592
  8,025
  8,478
  8,950
  9,443
  9,959
  10,499
  11,063
  11,653
  12,271
  12,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,396
  1,537
  1,685
  1,838
  1,999
  2,166
  2,339
  2,520
  2,707
  2,902
  3,087
  3,298
  3,516
  3,744
  3,981
  4,228
  4,484
  4,752
  5,031
  5,322
  5,626
  5,942
  6,274
  6,619
  6,981
  7,359
  7,755
  8,169
  8,602
  9,055
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  194
  199
  203
  209
  214
  219
  225
  230
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  274
  280
  288
  295
  302
  310
  317
  325
  333
  342
  350
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,567
  1,712
  1,865
  2,022
  2,188
  2,360
  2,538
  2,723
  2,916
  3,116
  3,306
  3,523
  3,746
  3,980
  4,223
  4,476
  4,738
  5,012
  5,298
  5,596
  5,906
  6,230
  6,569
  6,921
  7,291
  7,676
  8,080
  8,502
  8,944
  9,405
Operating income, $m
  350
  399
  455
  513
  575
  638
  705
  774
  846
  921
  999
  1,098
  1,182
  1,270
  1,361
  1,456
  1,556
  1,659
  1,767
  1,879
  1,997
  2,119
  2,248
  2,382
  2,522
  2,668
  2,822
  2,983
  3,151
  3,328
  3,513
EBITDA, $m
  428
  476
  538
  603
  671
  741
  815
  892
  971
  1,054
  1,141
  1,230
  1,324
  1,421
  1,522
  1,628
  1,737
  1,852
  1,971
  2,095
  2,225
  2,361
  2,503
  2,651
  2,806
  2,969
  3,138
  3,316
  3,502
  3,698
  3,902
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  25
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  322
  374
  434
  488
  545
  604
  666
  731
  798
  867
  940
  1,033
  1,112
  1,193
  1,278
  1,367
  1,459
  1,555
  1,656
  1,761
  1,870
  1,984
  2,104
  2,229
  2,359
  2,496
  2,639
  2,789
  2,946
  3,111
  3,283
Tax expense, $m
  100
  101
  117
  132
  147
  163
  180
  197
  215
  234
  254
  279
  300
  322
  345
  369
  394
  420
  447
  475
  505
  536
  568
  602
  637
  674
  713
  753
  795
  840
  886
Net income, $m
  222
  273
  317
  356
  398
  441
  486
  533
  582
  633
  686
  754
  811
  871
  933
  998
  1,065
  1,135
  1,209
  1,285
  1,365
  1,449
  1,536
  1,627
  1,722
  1,822
  1,927
  2,036
  2,151
  2,271
  2,397

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,531
  1,262
  1,391
  1,526
  1,667
  1,814
  1,967
  2,126
  2,291
  2,463
  2,641
  2,827
  3,019
  3,220
  3,428
  3,645
  3,871
  4,106
  4,351
  4,607
  4,873
  5,151
  5,441
  5,744
  6,061
  6,392
  6,739
  7,101
  7,480
  7,876
  8,292
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,139
  1,262
  1,391
  1,526
  1,667
  1,814
  1,967
  2,126
  2,291
  2,463
  2,641
  2,827
  3,019
  3,220
  3,428
  3,645
  3,871
  4,106
  4,351
  4,607
  4,873
  5,151
  5,441
  5,744
  6,061
  6,392
  6,739
  7,101
  7,480
  7,876
  8,292
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.558
  1.559
  1.559
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
  1.558
Average production assets, $m
  397
  439
  483
  530
  579
  630
  683
  739
  796
  856
  918
  982
  1,049
  1,119
  1,191
  1,266
  1,345
  1,427
  1,512
  1,600
  1,693
  1,790
  1,890
  1,996
  2,106
  2,221
  2,341
  2,467
  2,599
  2,737
  2,881
Working capital, $m
  -89
  144
  158
  174
  190
  206
  224
  242
  261
  280
  300
  321
  343
  366
  390
  415
  440
  467
  495
  524
  554
  586
  619
  653
  689
  727
  766
  808
  851
  896
  943
Total debt, $m
  1,110
  607
  723
  845
  971
  1,104
  1,241
  1,384
  1,533
  1,687
  1,848
  2,015
  2,188
  2,369
  2,556
  2,752
  2,955
  3,167
  3,387
  3,617
  3,857
  4,107
  4,368
  4,641
  4,926
  5,224
  5,536
  5,862
  6,203
  6,560
  6,934
Total liabilities, $m
  1,639
  1,136
  1,252
  1,374
  1,500
  1,633
  1,770
  1,913
  2,062
  2,216
  2,377
  2,544
  2,717
  2,898
  3,085
  3,281
  3,484
  3,696
  3,916
  4,146
  4,386
  4,636
  4,897
  5,170
  5,455
  5,753
  6,065
  6,391
  6,732
  7,089
  7,463
Total equity, $m
  -108
  126
  139
  153
  167
  181
  197
  213
  229
  246
  264
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  387
  411
  435
  461
  487
  515
  544
  574
  606
  639
  674
  710
  748
  788
  829
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,531
  1,262
  1,391
  1,527
  1,667
  1,814
  1,967
  2,126
  2,291
  2,462
  2,641
  2,827
  3,019
  3,220
  3,428
  3,646
  3,871
  4,107
  4,351
  4,607
  4,873
  5,151
  5,441
  5,744
  6,061
  6,392
  6,739
  7,101
  7,480
  7,877
  8,292
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.278
  4.810
  5.200
  5.530
  5.830
  6.080
  6.310
  6.510
  6.690
  6.850
  7.000
  7.130
  7.250
  7.360
  7.460
  7.550
  7.630
  7.710
  7.780
  7.850
  7.910
  7.970
  8.030
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.260
  8.290
  8.330
  8.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.095
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  222
  273
  317
  356
  398
  441
  486
  533
  582
  633
  686
  754
  811
  871
  933
  998
  1,065
  1,135
  1,209
  1,285
  1,365
  1,449
  1,536
  1,627
  1,722
  1,822
  1,927
  2,036
  2,151
  2,271
  2,397
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  142
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  255
  270
  285
  300
  316
  333
  351
  370
  389
Funds from operations, $m
  338
  350
  400
  446
  494
  544
  596
  651
  708
  767
  828
  887
  953
  1,022
  1,094
  1,169
  1,247
  1,328
  1,413
  1,502
  1,594
  1,690
  1,791
  1,897
  2,007
  2,122
  2,243
  2,369
  2,502
  2,641
  2,786
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  335
  344
  385
  430
  478
  527
  579
  633
  689
  747
  808
  866
  931
  999
  1,070
  1,144
  1,221
  1,302
  1,385
  1,472
  1,564
  1,659
  1,758
  1,862
  1,971
  2,085
  2,204
  2,328
  2,459
  2,595
  2,739
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -157
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -223
  -236
  -249
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -442
  -465
  -489
  -514
Free cash flow, $m
  244
  248
  281
  318
  357
  398
  441
  485
  532
  580
  630
  677
  732
  788
  847
  908
  972
  1,038
  1,107
  1,179
  1,255
  1,333
  1,416
  1,501
  1,591
  1,685
  1,783
  1,886
  1,994
  2,106
  2,225
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  38
  -111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -266
  97
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -218
  -14
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  137
  397
  440
  484
  530
  578
  628
  680
  734
  791
  844
  905
  968
  1,034
  1,103
  1,175
  1,250
  1,328
  1,409
  1,495
  1,584
  1,677
  1,774
  1,876
  1,983
  2,095
  2,212
  2,335
  2,463
  2,598
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -234
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  384
  426
  470
  516
  563
  612
  664
  717
  773
  826
  886
  948
  1,014
  1,082
  1,152
  1,226
  1,303
  1,384
  1,468
  1,556
  1,648
  1,744
  1,845
  1,950
  2,060
  2,176
  2,297
  2,424
  2,557
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  329
  335
  335
  331
  323
  311
  294
  275
  254
  229
  204
  180
  155
  132
  110
  90
  72
  57
  44
  33
  24
  17
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and distributes products and services primarily for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy, and water testing markets worldwide. It operates through Companion Animal Group; Water Quality Products; Livestock, Poultry and Dairy; and Other segments. The company provides point-of-care veterinary diagnostic products, including instruments, consumables, and rapid assays; veterinary reference laboratory diagnostic and consulting services; practice management and diagnostic imaging systems and services for veterinarians; and biological materials testing, and laboratory animal diagnostic instruments and services for biomedical research community. It also offers diagnostic and health-monitoring products for livestock, poultry, and dairy markets; products that test water for various microbiological contaminants; and point-of-care electrolytes and blood gas analyzers that are used in the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market. The company markets its products through marketing, customer service, sales, and technical service groups, as well as through independent distributors and other resellers. IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Westbrook, Maine.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 66
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book -135.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 43.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -462%
Total Debt to Equity -1027.8%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity -231.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 318.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1775 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDEXX Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDEXX Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for IDXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDEXX Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDEXX Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $167 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for IDEXX Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDEXX Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDXX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDXX are equal to 22.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDEXX Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDXX is equal to 7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-108 million for IDEXX Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88.837 million for IDEXX Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDEXX Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.8 billion.


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Stock chart of IDXX Financial statements of IDXX Annual reports of IDXX
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