Intrinsic value of IDEXX Laboratories - IDXX

Previous Close

$237.92

  Intrinsic Value

$63.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$237.92

 
Intrinsic value

$63.40

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IDXX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.80
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  1,775
  2,184
  2,409
  2,644
  2,890
  3,147
  3,414
  3,691
  3,980
  4,280
  4,592
  4,916
  5,253
  5,603
  5,967
  6,346
  6,741
  7,151
  7,579
  8,025
  8,490
  8,976
  9,483
  10,012
  10,565
  11,143
  11,747
  12,379
  13,041
  13,733
  14,458
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,471
  1,620
  1,777
  1,940
  2,109
  2,286
  2,470
  2,662
  2,860
  3,067
  3,257
  3,481
  3,713
  3,954
  4,205
  4,466
  4,738
  5,022
  5,318
  5,626
  5,947
  6,283
  6,634
  7,000
  7,383
  7,784
  8,203
  8,641
  9,100
  9,580
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  236
  241
  247
  252
  258
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  293
  300
  307
  313
  320
  327
  334
  342
  349
  357
  365
  373
  381
  389
  398
  407
  416
  425
  434
  444
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,425
  1,707
  1,861
  2,024
  2,192
  2,367
  2,549
  2,739
  2,937
  3,141
  3,354
  3,550
  3,781
  4,020
  4,267
  4,525
  4,793
  5,072
  5,364
  5,667
  5,983
  6,312
  6,656
  7,015
  7,389
  7,781
  8,191
  8,619
  9,066
  9,534
  10,024
Operating income, $m
  350
  476
  547
  621
  699
  780
  864
  952
  1,044
  1,139
  1,238
  1,365
  1,472
  1,584
  1,700
  1,821
  1,947
  2,078
  2,215
  2,358
  2,508
  2,664
  2,827
  2,997
  3,175
  3,361
  3,557
  3,761
  3,975
  4,199
  4,434
EBITDA, $m
  428
  567
  645
  726
  812
  900
  993
  1,089
  1,190
  1,294
  1,403
  1,516
  1,633
  1,755
  1,883
  2,015
  2,153
  2,297
  2,447
  2,604
  2,767
  2,938
  3,117
  3,303
  3,498
  3,702
  3,916
  4,140
  4,374
  4,619
  4,877
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  68
  65
  75
  85
  95
  106
  117
  129
  141
  154
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  312
  332
  352
  374
  396
  420
  444
  470
  496
  524
  554
Earnings before tax, $m
  322
  408
  482
  547
  614
  685
  758
  835
  915
  998
  1,084
  1,198
  1,292
  1,389
  1,490
  1,596
  1,706
  1,821
  1,940
  2,065
  2,196
  2,332
  2,474
  2,623
  2,779
  2,942
  3,113
  3,291
  3,479
  3,675
  3,881
Tax expense, $m
  100
  110
  130
  148
  166
  185
  205
  225
  247
  269
  293
  324
  349
  375
  402
  431
  461
  492
  524
  558
  593
  630
  668
  708
  750
  794
  840
  889
  939
  992
  1,048
Net income, $m
  222
  298
  352
  399
  448
  500
  554
  610
  668
  728
  791
  875
  943
  1,014
  1,088
  1,165
  1,245
  1,329
  1,416
  1,508
  1,603
  1,702
  1,806
  1,915
  2,029
  2,148
  2,272
  2,403
  2,539
  2,683
  2,833

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  392
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,531
  1,900
  2,096
  2,301
  2,515
  2,739
  2,971
  3,213
  3,464
  3,725
  3,997
  4,279
  4,572
  4,876
  5,193
  5,523
  5,866
  6,224
  6,596
  6,985
  7,389
  7,812
  8,253
  8,714
  9,195
  9,698
  10,224
  10,774
  11,350
  11,952
  12,583
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,139
  1,900
  2,096
  2,301
  2,515
  2,739
  2,971
  3,213
  3,464
  3,725
  3,997
  4,279
  4,572
  4,876
  5,193
  5,523
  5,866
  6,224
  6,596
  6,985
  7,389
  7,812
  8,253
  8,714
  9,195
  9,698
  10,224
  10,774
  11,350
  11,952
  12,583
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.558
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
  1.149
Average production assets, $m
  397
  668
  737
  809
  884
  963
  1,045
  1,130
  1,218
  1,310
  1,405
  1,504
  1,607
  1,715
  1,826
  1,942
  2,063
  2,188
  2,319
  2,456
  2,598
  2,747
  2,902
  3,064
  3,233
  3,410
  3,595
  3,788
  3,990
  4,202
  4,424
Working capital, $m
  -89
  107
  118
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  241
  257
  275
  292
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  518
  546
  576
  607
  639
  673
  708
Total debt, $m
  1,110
  1,204
  1,380
  1,565
  1,758
  1,958
  2,168
  2,385
  2,611
  2,846
  3,091
  3,344
  3,608
  3,882
  4,168
  4,465
  4,773
  5,095
  5,430
  5,780
  6,144
  6,524
  6,921
  7,336
  7,769
  8,222
  8,695
  9,190
  9,708
  10,251
  10,818
Total liabilities, $m
  1,639
  1,710
  1,887
  2,071
  2,264
  2,465
  2,674
  2,891
  3,118
  3,353
  3,597
  3,851
  4,115
  4,389
  4,674
  4,971
  5,280
  5,601
  5,937
  6,286
  6,650
  7,031
  7,428
  7,842
  8,275
  8,728
  9,201
  9,697
  10,215
  10,757
  11,325
Total equity, $m
  -108
  190
  210
  230
  252
  274
  297
  321
  346
  373
  400
  428
  457
  488
  519
  552
  587
  622
  660
  698
  739
  781
  825
  871
  919
  970
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,195
  1,258
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,531
  1,900
  2,097
  2,301
  2,516
  2,739
  2,971
  3,212
  3,464
  3,726
  3,997
  4,279
  4,572
  4,877
  5,193
  5,523
  5,867
  6,223
  6,597
  6,984
  7,389
  7,812
  8,253
  8,713
  9,194
  9,698
  10,223
  10,774
  11,350
  11,952
  12,583
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -10.278
  6.340
  6.580
  6.800
  6.990
  7.150
  7.300
  7.420
  7.540
  7.640
  7.730
  7.820
  7.890
  7.960
  8.030
  8.080
  8.140
  8.190
  8.230
  8.280
  8.310
  8.350
  8.390
  8.420
  8.450
  8.480
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.580
  8.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.095
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  222
  298
  352
  399
  448
  500
  554
  610
  668
  728
  791
  875
  943
  1,014
  1,088
  1,165
  1,245
  1,329
  1,416
  1,508
  1,603
  1,702
  1,806
  1,915
  2,029
  2,148
  2,272
  2,403
  2,539
  2,683
  2,833
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  78
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  150
  161
  171
  183
  194
  206
  219
  232
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379
  399
  420
  442
Funds from operations, $m
  338
  389
  450
  504
  561
  621
  682
  747
  814
  884
  956
  1,025
  1,104
  1,185
  1,271
  1,359
  1,452
  1,548
  1,648
  1,753
  1,863
  1,977
  2,096
  2,221
  2,352
  2,489
  2,632
  2,782
  2,938
  3,103
  3,275
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  335
  379
  439
  493
  549
  608
  669
  733
  800
  869
  941
  1,009
  1,087
  1,168
  1,253
  1,341
  1,432
  1,528
  1,627
  1,731
  1,840
  1,953
  2,072
  2,195
  2,325
  2,460
  2,602
  2,751
  2,906
  3,069
  3,240
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -161
  -171
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -219
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -275
  -290
  -306
  -323
  -341
  -359
  -379
  -399
  -420
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -178
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -240
  -253
  -268
  -282
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -368
  -388
  -409
  -430
  -452
  -475
  -500
  -526
  -552
  -581
  -611
  -642
Free cash flow, $m
  244
  253
  303
  347
  393
  441
  491
  544
  598
  655
  715
  770
  834
  900
  970
  1,042
  1,117
  1,196
  1,278
  1,363
  1,452
  1,545
  1,642
  1,743
  1,849
  1,960
  2,076
  2,198
  2,325
  2,458
  2,598
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  38
  -57
  176
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -266
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -218
  -57
  176
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  473
  495
  518
  542
  568
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  196
  480
  532
  586
  642
  701
  761
  825
  890
  959
  1,023
  1,098
  1,175
  1,255
  1,339
  1,426
  1,518
  1,613
  1,712
  1,816
  1,925
  2,039
  2,158
  2,282
  2,413
  2,550
  2,693
  2,843
  3,000
  3,165
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  24
  -244
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  156
  165
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -49
  460
  511
  564
  620
  677
  737
  800
  864
  932
  995
  1,068
  1,144
  1,223
  1,306
  1,392
  1,482
  1,576
  1,673
  1,776
  1,883
  1,995
  2,112
  2,234
  2,363
  2,497
  2,638
  2,785
  2,940
  3,102
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -45
  401
  411
  417
  417
  411
  400
  385
  365
  342
  313
  285
  256
  226
  196
  168
  141
  116
  94
  74
  58
  44
  33
  24
  17
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. develops, manufactures and distributes products and provides services for the companion animal veterinary, livestock and poultry, dairy and water testing markets. The Company also sells a line of portable electrolytes and blood gas analyzers for the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market. Its segments include diagnostic and information technology-based products and services for the veterinary market, which the Company refers to as the Companion Animal Group; water quality products; diagnostic products and services for livestock and poultry health, which the Company refers to as Livestock, Poultry and Dairy, and Other operating segment, which combines and presents products for the human point-of-care medical diagnostics market with its pharmaceutical product line and its out-licensing arrangements. Its products and services include point-of-care veterinary diagnostic products, comprising instruments, consumables and rapid assay test kits, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 94.3
Price to Sales 11.8
Price to Book -193.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 62.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 77.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -462%
Total Debt to Equity -1027.8%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity -231.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 318.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.1%
EBITDA Margin 24.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Net Profit Margin 12.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

IDXX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IDXX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1969 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IDEXX Laboratories. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IDEXX Laboratories. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IDXX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for IDXX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IDEXX Laboratories, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IDEXX Laboratories.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IDXX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $231 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IDXX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for IDEXX Laboratories.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IDEXX Laboratories. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IDXX stock is equal to 1.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IDXX are equal to 30.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IDEXX Laboratories operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IDXX is equal to 4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-54 million for IDEXX Laboratories - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88 million for IDEXX Laboratories is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IDEXX Laboratories at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $20.9 billion.

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Financial statements of IDXX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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