Intrinsic value of IES Holdings - IESC

Previous Close

$18.90

  Intrinsic Value

$20.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+7%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$18.90

 
Intrinsic value

$20.21

 
Up/down potential

+7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IESC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.25
  15.60
  14.54
  13.59
  12.73
  11.95
  11.26
  10.63
  10.07
  9.56
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
Revenue, $m
  696
  805
  922
  1,047
  1,180
  1,321
  1,470
  1,626
  1,790
  1,961
  2,140
  2,326
  2,519
  2,721
  2,930
  3,148
  3,374
  3,609
  3,853
  4,107
  4,371
  4,646
  4,932
  5,230
  5,541
  5,864
  6,202
  6,555
  6,923
  7,308
  7,709
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  765
  875
  993
  1,119
  1,253
  1,393
  1,541
  1,696
  1,858
  2,026
  2,198
  2,381
  2,572
  2,770
  2,975
  3,189
  3,411
  3,642
  3,882
  4,132
  4,391
  4,662
  4,944
  5,237
  5,543
  5,863
  6,196
  6,544
  6,908
  7,287
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  671
  774
  884
  1,003
  1,129
  1,263
  1,403
  1,552
  1,707
  1,869
  2,038
  2,210
  2,393
  2,584
  2,783
  2,988
  3,202
  3,425
  3,656
  3,896
  4,147
  4,406
  4,677
  4,960
  5,253
  5,560
  5,880
  6,214
  6,562
  6,926
  7,306
Operating income, $m
  25
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  92
  102
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  210
  225
  239
  255
  270
  287
  304
  322
  341
  361
  382
  403
EBITDA, $m
  31
  39
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  187
  200
  215
  229
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  331
  351
  372
  393
  415
  439
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  84
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  226
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  316
Tax expense, $m
  -97
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
Net income, $m
  121
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  394
  417
  478
  543
  612
  685
  762
  843
  928
  1,017
  1,110
  1,206
  1,307
  1,411
  1,520
  1,633
  1,750
  1,872
  1,998
  2,130
  2,267
  2,410
  2,558
  2,713
  2,874
  3,042
  3,217
  3,400
  3,591
  3,790
  3,999
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  361
  417
  478
  543
  612
  685
  762
  843
  928
  1,017
  1,110
  1,206
  1,307
  1,411
  1,520
  1,633
  1,750
  1,872
  1,998
  2,130
  2,267
  2,410
  2,558
  2,713
  2,874
  3,042
  3,217
  3,400
  3,591
  3,790
  3,999
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.928
  1.930
  1.929
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.928
  1.928
  1.929
  1.927
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
  1.928
Average production assets, $m
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  101
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  232
  246
  260
  276
  292
  308
  325
  343
  362
Working capital, $m
  77
  51
  58
  66
  74
  83
  93
  102
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  171
  185
  198
  213
  227
  243
  259
  275
  293
  311
  329
  349
  369
  391
  413
  436
  460
  486
Total debt, $m
  29
  56
  85
  115
  148
  183
  219
  258
  298
  340
  384
  430
  477
  527
  578
  632
  687
  745
  805
  868
  933
  1,000
  1,071
  1,144
  1,220
  1,300
  1,383
  1,470
  1,560
  1,655
  1,753
Total liabilities, $m
  171
  198
  227
  257
  290
  325
  361
  400
  440
  482
  526
  572
  619
  669
  720
  774
  829
  887
  947
  1,010
  1,075
  1,142
  1,213
  1,286
  1,362
  1,442
  1,525
  1,612
  1,702
  1,797
  1,895
Total equity, $m
  223
  220
  251
  286
  322
  360
  401
  444
  488
  535
  584
  634
  687
  742
  799
  859
  920
  984
  1,051
  1,120
  1,192
  1,267
  1,346
  1,427
  1,512
  1,600
  1,692
  1,788
  1,889
  1,994
  2,103
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  394
  418
  478
  543
  612
  685
  762
  844
  928
  1,017
  1,110
  1,206
  1,306
  1,411
  1,519
  1,633
  1,749
  1,871
  1,998
  2,130
  2,267
  2,409
  2,559
  2,713
  2,874
  3,042
  3,217
  3,400
  3,591
  3,791
  3,998
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.250
  0.340
  0.400
  0.460
  0.510
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  141
  150
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  25
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  53
  58
  64
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  182
  192
  204
  215
  228
  241
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -53
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
  188
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  8
  7
  6
  4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  35
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  233
  245
  258
  272
  287
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  52
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  50
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  20
  21
  21
  22
  21
  21
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  15
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.7
  96.0
  94.8
  94.1
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9
  93.9

IES Holdings, Inc., formerly Integrated Electrical Services, Inc., is a holding company that owns and manages diverse operating subsidiaries across a range of infrastructure-related end markets. The Company operates through four segments: Communications, Residential, Commercial & Industrial, and Infrastructure Solutions. The Communications segment provides network infrastructure services for data centers and other mission critical environments. The Residential segment provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes and cable television installations for residential and light commercial applications. The Commercial & Industrial segment provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets. The Company's Infrastructure Solutions segment provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations to domestic and international customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IES Holdings (IESC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 13%
Total Debt to Equity 13%
Interest Coverage 25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 40.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Return On Total Capital 66.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Return On Equity 74.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 17.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Effective Tax Rate -404.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -132.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

IESC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IESC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $696 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IES Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IES Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IESC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IESC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IES Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IES Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IESC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $9 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IESC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for IES Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IES Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IESC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IESC are equal to 4.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IES Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IESC is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $223 million for IES Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.435 million for IES Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IES Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 3Q profit   [Aug-04-17 11:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 3Q profit   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ IES Holdings Acquires NEXT Electric   [Jul-14-17 07:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IES Holdings, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:39PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IES Holdings, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 2Q profit   [May-05-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ IES Holdings Amends and Expands Credit Facility   [Apr-10-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Houston electromechanical company scoops up Cincinnati co.   [Mar-17-17 09:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Houston electromechanical company scoops up Cincinnati co.   [09:35AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Integrated Electrical Services posts 1Q profit   [Feb-08-17 06:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Exactech, Inc. (EXAC)   [Dec-11-16 04:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS) Going to Burn Investors?   [Dec-08-16 01:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tontine Asset Managements Bets on Small-Caps Help Offset Losses   [Sep-26-16 07:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Term Sheet Friday, June 17   [Jun-17-16 10:23AM  at Fortune]
▶ IES Holdings Announces Management Appointments   [Jun-06-16 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Forced Into Bearishness   [Apr-20-16 11:01AM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of IESC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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